Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice)

[Canoerebel]

1/8/44

New Guinea and SoPac: DS continues to dance around for a very specific reason. KB remains concealed in the shadows, unfortunately. Invasion of Ponape tomorrow. Dave has detection and subs, but I'm nearly positive KB is at least two or three days away and quite likely way over in the Ceram Sea region. We'll see. Allied ASW scored some hits but no kills near PM. An enemy sub near Ceylon killed an Indian DE.

[jwolf]

Oh man, this could be bad news if he really put the pedal to the metal in just the right (wrong!) direction. Good luck!

[Canoerebel]

I'm nearly positive I'm right about this, but I'm willing to risk some ships (not all of them!) at Ponape because that would open up the Gulf of Carpentaria and Arafura Sea to Allied incursions while KB was far away. Were I to trade a few CVEs and escorts for Merauke it would be worth it. But I hope no such trade is in the offing. We'll see if my instincts are right, unlike the Bay of Bengal in June '43.

[RangerJoe]

. . . should the DS show up at Ponape (gulp) or the Admiralties.

They should only do so if you order it. Or do you have a secret wish to play the Japanese side?

But I do understand what I think that you mean. You have plenty of fuel to burn, maybe not right there however, so you can keep your fleets dancing and fencing.

[BillBrown]

CR is having a problem with DS and KB. It is just a typing problem, not a mental problem. [8D]

[RangerJoe]

Maybe he needs an infusion of ethanol . . .

[Canoerebel]

1/9/44 to 1/11/44

Ponape: The invasion opens with fireworks (shoreguns and enemy subs) and ends in a quick and decisive Allied victory. No appearance by KB or Kaigun, and the major Allied ships have already broken contact and are well on their way to home port.

KB & DS: No sign of KB. DS is loitering near Cooktown while waiting for Americal Division to board transports (that'll take about four days). Dave will have to post KB carefully if he wishes to contest an invasion of Port Moresby, so the next steps should be even more tense than what's been going on, and it's already been pretty darned tense.

[Canoerebel]

1/11/44

Strategic Map: Dave still has "dark corners" to hide KB in the DEI, but they are shrinking.

[Canoerebel]

1/12/44

SWPac: Lots of moves and countermoves going on right now. Dave has vectored in a gazillion subs, so the pending move on PM will entail risks from the undersea branch of the service, but I think it's worth it as long as KB isn't lurking.

[T Rav]

CR,

I read about your adventures every day and appreciate the time it takes. In the words of an old unit of mine... "Keep Up The Fire!"


Thanks,

T Rav

[RangerJoe]

Some suggestions to save PPs. Instead of disbanding the carrier TFs, just leave one vessel in it to hold the admiral. When it switches to a SCTF, even a HDML can act as his yacht. That way you won't have to spend PP to choose the leader of the CVTF. Just make it an escort TF when you want to put the carriers back in it and remove any vessels that you don't want in it. If you want to avoid reactions, maybe leave it as an escort TF but give the air units orders. Or use CVEs as place holders while the CVs repair and give their crews time for I & I.

[Canoerebel]

'Nother good tip, Ranger, thanks. I know that routine but it just wouldn't have come to mind with all that's going on. Thanks.

TRav, thanks for the encouraging word. The AARs are time-consuming but definitely a labor of love.

[RangerJoe]

Here is another good tip for when you got your Fleet carriers together into a powerful force. As George S. Patton IV said "Find the bastards and pile on!"

[Canoerebel]

1/13/44 to 1/17/44

D-Day Port Moresby: The Allies approach the beaches and land without any hostile troubles, despite the host of subs in the region and the enemy airfields. Allied ASW keeps whacking those subs pretty effectively. I don't know where KB is, though I feel pretty confident that it's not within immediate striking distance (if I'm wrong, it's an utter failure of a good network of forward PBY bases). Allies have 1200 to 600 AV, with another Aussie division in reserve at Townsville. Overall, I think the safe can be cracked within a reasonable time, as long as KB doesn't intervene.

Elsewhere: The massive amount of planning (prep, supply, fuel, troops) necessary to "prosecute the game plan") is in fine shape. I think the Allies should soon be able to advance on two to three fronts simultaneously during intervals where I know where KB is. And I think I will, once the big show gets underway. Elimination of Mini KB a month ago is a big help.

China: MLR remains intact.

[Canoerebel]

1/17/44

Intel Screen: The points totals are much different in this game than any I've ever played before. The fighting has been less cataclysmic. As a result, the losses for both sides are lower. However, the ratios are much more favorable to the Allies than in my past games. Most importantly, the Japanese "denominator" is much less. I think the prospect for an Allied victory, consequently, is much better. Adding to that is the work done to position all Allied assets for the major offensives to come. I'm a bit behind on the map, compared to my other games and probably to most AARs, but I think I'm considerably ahead where it counts.

Caveat: Losing a major carrier battle would throw everything off badly for a long time to come.

[Bif1961]

Interesting to compare and contrast the VP screens and losses between your current contest in Jan 44 and mine entering early Jun 43. The VP gap between my Japanese opponent and I is down to just under 4,900 advantage Japan. Also we have less ship losses combined about 7,500 points and 678 vessels. Air loses are greater than yours however, with the Japanese nearly 10,000 and the Allies just over 6,000. The gap in LCU point loses are close to what you have with the Japanese being a little lower and the Allies slightly higher than yours. In base VPs the Allies have edged ahead by 100+ points. You are right to point out one or two major carrier clashes could goose VPs in ship losses, aircraft losses and total VPs. We have had carrier losses, with FoW 3 or 4 CVs and 5-6 CVEs.

[Canoerebel]

That denominator is key. If your opponent is ahead by 4,900 points, for instance, compare an Allies to Japanese ratio of 25,100 to 30,000 (a 4,900-point spread) to a ratio of 35,100 to 40,000. Same point spread, but in the first example the Allies are 35,000 points from a '45 AV; in the second example, they are 45,000 points away. That denominator is crucial.

Of course, neither player has the ability to really micromanage the numerator or the denominator. In my game with Dave, he pulled up early, established a perimeter, and didn't push. That gave me a lot of breathing room, and I didn't have to fight in desperation anywhere. His strategy has merit in certain ways (as we'll see going forward - his MLR should be very tough), but the downside was the it minimized the denominator.

[RangerJoe]

So to stretch out the agony for the Japanese, they have to make successful smash and grabs but at the cost of fuel and supplies which may not be replaced by what is captured. Of course, if they don't do the smash and grabs, they can make the Allied advance painful unless it is unduly delayed by a too cautious allied player.

[Canoerebel]

All kinds of permutations, right? I've played so many different kinds of players - John III (uber-aggressive), Obvert (aggressive, cautious, flexible), Dave (strategically cautious, tactically aggressive), Miller (strategically cautious, tactically tenacious), and others. I doubt there is a right way of doing it except that each player should have fun...and I think all four of those gents do. It's fun for me to try to adapt to different approaches.

I've said this before - the more I play other players, the more impressed I am with John III's abilities. He has the infamous holes but he is a darned good fighter and a smart man.

[Canoerebel]

1/18/44

Port Moresby: The opening, probing deliberate attack by Allied armor reveals vulnerability in the enemy defenses. A general attack tomorrow should verify that the Japanese won't hold out long.

Retrieval: Following successful invasions, one of the most tedious and risky undertakings is retrieving key units from forward bases (assuming it isn't advantageous for them to remain in place) so that they are available for future uses. The two divisions that took Wake have been retrieved and are set for the next step. There are also two divisions at Ponape - getting them is a bit risky, due to the proximity of Truk and enemy assets. There are two division at Milne Bay, but they can probably be loaded right there for future use. As for PM, when it falls I'll probably retrieve them. All of that takes a lot of time and shipping.

Evaluating the Enemy: During the Milne Bay invasion, KB sprinted from Sorong down New Guinea's "east" coast. When the Allies feinted towards Merauke, KB turned around and moved into the Arafura Sea. Then Dave withdrew his carriers. Why? The Allies have remained active in the Coral Sea/Solomon Sea region, but he's relying solely on subs. There could be many reasons, and it's impossible to know for certain what he's doing. Yet getting a finger on the pulse of things would be a big help going forward. For instance, if Dave is worried that New Guinea is a diversion so that the Allies can invade the DEI or Malaya, then I'd have a window to move somewhere like the Admiralties, which are lightly garrisoned. On the other hand, if KB is lurking around Sorong, ready to pounce, there are two Allied invasion forces in distant locales just about in place and ready to move. Pushing the right buttons so that Dave elects to commit KB would be helpful. If he chooses to keep it concealed, though, there are ways to take advantage of that. Measures and countermeasures are fun aspects of the game.