Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice)

[Canoerebel]

2/1/44

Battle of Rabaul: Sub finishes off a damaged Jap DD (the second confirmed sunk). It looks like South Dakota TF has retired north, into the Bismarck Sea. Gulp.

[Canoerebel]

2/1/44

Battle of Rabaul: Mutsu has detached, which is a good sign, but South Dakota is about the last man standing.

[Canoerebel]

2/1/44

Battle of Rabaul: The very early stages of the a.m. search phase show indications that DS & The Herd retired to or near the desired point, two hexes from Milne Bay. If true, that's significant.

[Canoerebel]

2/1/44

Battle of Rabaul: Here comes the enemy LBA...and they find Montpelier TF where I think (thought?) SD TF would be.

[Canoerebel]

2/1/44

Battle of Rabaul: More enemy LBA. I can't figure out why there isn't more LRCAP. Where are my carriers? Why isn't Milne Bay's LBA helping?

[Canoerebel]

2/1/44

Battle of Rabaul: This is nice.

[Canoerebel]

2/1/44

Battle of Rabaul: Now I know the location of DS - right where it's supposed to be.

Just prior to this attack, NavSearch reported KB north of Kavieng. Dave is leery of sending his carriers into the Bismarck Sea, where I have lots of subs.

[Canoerebel]

2/1/45

Battle of Rabaul: There's Dave's carriers.

[Canoerebel]

2/1/44

Battle of Rabaul: The daylight phase ends on a high note.

….wait, that means South Dakota avoided air strikes! But she's way out in Indian country now.

[USSAmerica]

I'm enjoying the play by play posts, Dan!

[Canoerebel]

2/1/44

Battle of Rabaul: Probing deliberate attack by a couple of small armored units cause a noticeable reduction in enemy AV. This battle would end quickly, but Dave has the ability to insert reinforcements (he might or might not) and bombard and bomb. So, in the short term, I don't expect a conquest. But I also don't think Dave will destroy the Allied army.

CL Montpelier and a DD sank near the end of the turn. The Allied navy did will, overall.

Now comes the interesting maneuvering - How does Dave react? How do I handle DS? And what invasions can be triggered now with some safety?

[jwolf]

So far, surface ship losses look about even. Both sides' CV forces are fresh, and about evenly matched? Could be ... interesting. Rabaul will certainly fall if Dave does not bring in reinforcements. So the question is if he thinks that base is important enough (most likely yes) and does he have something ready to go. I am wondering what each side has available in the way of surface TFs now.

[Canoerebel]

In the game, I've lost two BBs and two CAs total, plus 6 CLs (one of those today). The Allied navy is strong and here in strength.

Overall, I think the situation favors the Allies. It's a confused radar screen for Dave, with so many bases suddenly flipping and so many tasks to accomplish. Allied subs are fresh and have flooded the area. He knows it. In contrast, the Allies have spent the last three weeks whittling away enemy subs in this region (he's taken heavy sub losses but has more to commit). He's trying to evacuate Lunga even as he tries to stabilize New Britain and vicinity. Two of his combat TFs just took considerable damage, while just one of the Allies did.

The one thing that worries me - my CVs have been campaigning for weeks. Sorties are fine, but I've lost a few Hellcats here and there. I'm counting on LBA to provide LRCAP, but judging from this turn that didn't work out so well.

Dave may press "go" on a flank attack, as he's been surprised (he was expecting to fight in the DEI, not here) and nipped pretty hard, so he'll want revenge, if it's practicable. But I think the odds are higher that he'll remain loathe to enter the small bodies of water where he knows Allied subs are waiting.

[Gridley380]

Exciting!

[Canoerebel]

2/1/44

Situation: That turn turned out well, and KB didn't press things. I'm not as certain about tomorrow's set-up. I don't think Dave will send KB by flank speed. I don't want him too. But it's not out of the question. I'm worried about how a carrier battle might turn out, especially if LBA doesn't contribute good LRCAP.

But the objective of all this - beyond the sinking of ships and the taking of bases - was to draw KB into the fray in order to facilitate moves elsewhere. Those forces are underway or just about to be.

As a player, this turn was simply a blast. It's one of those rare turns that are frenetic and good, so thanks for coming along for the ride (I'm glad you enjoyed it, USSAmerica).

[Canoerebel]

2/2/44

Solomon Sea Region: KB didn't give chase and somehow disappeared. Enemy LBA sortied against DS from Lae, ineffectively. And patrolling DDs messed up a loaded troop convoy retiring from Rabaul.

The highest priority (as always) is doing everything possible to protect DS and the big amphibious ships. The second highest is to find KB. How'd it just vanish? Weather might've concealed it but it's also possible Dave pulled it back to Sorong, pronto, fearing Allied moves in the DEI. I need to confirm ASAP. If it's retired, that re-opens the Solomon Sea region to Allied activities. If it's still nearby, other Allied ops newly underway elsewhere can continue.

[T Rav]

I come home from work and lo, Rabaul invaded, DS and the Herd OK, and a Battleship dances like a ballerina... Or at least an South Dakotan Elephant in Pointe shoes. Very cool.

T Rav

[Canoerebel]

It's been a rollicking ride the past eight weeks. Five major invasions, not-stop action, tons of fighting.

The craziness began on 11/23/43, when long-range recon from Christmas Island (IO) found KB at Singers. Dave was leaning hard that way. Figuring that was the case, the Allies had spent five months shifting most everything from the IO to Pearl, with a general notion of commencing offensive activities with an invasion of Wake sometime in mid- or late-December. But with KB at Singers, the green light was given. And everything broke loose:

11/23/43: Recon finds KB at Singers
11/27/43: D-Day at Wake Island
11/29/43: Battle of Kusaie Island, in which DS destroys Mini-KB.
12/24/43: Recon reports KB at Sorong
12/28/43: D-Day at Milne Bay.
1/9/44: D-Day at Ponape
1/17/44: D-Day at Port Moresby
1/31/44: D-Day at Rabaul
2/1/44: Naval Battle of Rabaul

Non-stop heavy campaigning stretching from Wake to the Coral Sea and from Tarawa to Truk, with supporting ship movements even farther flung, like Sydney, Pearl, etc.

The general plan was in development for many months, though there was flexibility to switch to targets of opportunity (originally the main axis was into the Arafura Sea, but opportunities prompted a switch to Rabaul and the Admiralties).

The damage inflicted on the Japanese navy has been considerable, while the Allies have taken minimal losses. Here's the tally:

[USSAmerica]

The Japanese CV and BB/CA losses are impressive, but killing 15 SS in less than 3 months is significant!

[T Rav]

I was looking at the same 15-1 ratio in subs. CR, you do have a knack for the Sub/ASW thing. It seems to free things up for you in the latter parts of your campaigns.