Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice)

[Gridley380]

I'm also impressed with sinking 15 subs in short order - it looks like you use aircraft on ASW patrol (presumably with good ASW skill and setting patrol arcs) to locate possible contacts, then set ASW TFs to patrol those hexes? I've found setting my ASW TFs to higher threat tolerance seems to improve their results but haven't done any really serious analysis. Any other 'tricks' you've found worthwhile?

[Canoerebel]

There were no real tricks here. Dave had a bunch of wolfpacks well-positioned at Milne Bay and Port Moresby. There was nothing to do other than configure the TFs and aircraft as best as possible and trust to luck. A fair number of subs were sunk by combat TFs (the DDs). I have some TBFs with good ASW pilots set to 70% ASW, range zero. Each armada has a number of dedicated ASW TFs (mostly PF and DE). That's the same kind of stuff we all do, right?

Tt's not full proof, as CVE Liscombe Bay proved, but it offers the best chance. The friction of proximity is gonna ensure that both sides generally take losses.

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

There were no real tricks here. Dave had a bunch of wolfpacks well-positioned at Milne Bay and Port Moresby. There was nothing to do other than configure the TFs and aircraft as best as possible and trust to luck. A fair number of subs were sunk by combat TFs (the DDs). I have some TBFs with good ASW pilots set to 70% ASW, range zero. Each armada has a number of dedicated ASW TFs (mostly PF and DE). That's the same kind of stuff we all do, right?

Tt's not full proof, as CVE Liscombe Bay proved, but it offers the best chance. The friction of proximity is gonna ensure that both sides generally take losses.

I do like the use of TBF's .. but I took mine off the carriers and kept them around Pearl Harbor .. to eventually get well trained ASW .. the TBF's will drop a bomb but better yet raise detection levels .. so the DD's can smash those sub's.. Another strategy early on is to use those yard patrol boats with a asw of 1 as bait .. I got a IJN sub to spend 10 torps over 4 days .. better that than a AK or something better ..[8D]

[Anachro]

I always make sure that the TBF pilots on my carriers have trained ASW up to at least 60+; they can then perform valuable heavy ASW duty during amphibious ops where carriers and other vessels are stuck for a period of time off the coast of a landmass. In such cases, much like at the Marianas, the primary duty of my carriers is defense, not attack. Having your TBF squadrons set primarily to ASW can be pretty effective on enemy subs in the area...and helps your surface vessels in their ASW efforts as well by keeping D/L on enemy subs high.

[Canoerebel]

Some of my torpedo squadrons have 70-skill ASW pilots. And some of my small CVE squadrons train in that skill first, ahead of torpedo bombing.

[Lovejoy]

Nice job on clobbering his subs. Every one sunk now is one he won't have later.

I think ASW operations planning is a game within the game. It's one of my favorite things to micromanage; it's great fun to coordinate air ASW patrols with naval ASW to vector a couple 3 KV/DE TFs right on top of an enemy sub.

[SuluSea]

ORIGINAL: Lovejoy

Nice job on clobbering his subs. Every one sunk now is one he won't have later.

I think ASW operations planning is a game within the game. It's one of my favorite things to micromanage; it's great fun to coordinate air ASW patrols with naval ASW to vector a couple 3 KV/DE TFs right on top of an enemy sub.

Agreed, if you know the enemy carriers won't be around and you know there's many enemy subs operating in your area put everything (minus CAP) in the CV TF on ASW...

You'll see plenty of damaged or destroyed subs with the added bonus of cheap skill/experience bumps.


Looking forward to the next invasion when the opportunity presents itself.

[Canoerebel]

2/14/44 to 2/19/44

New Guinea: While the fleet is in triage at Townsville it became clear that Merauke was lightly defended and susceptible to invasion by fast transport. That took place, beginning around the 15th. Dave didn't contest things, and this important (to me) base fell on the 19th.

The Fun Stuff: That (mostly) brings to a close the complex, risky Allied plan. From 11/20 to 2/19, the Allies took Wake, Milne Bay, Ponape, Port Moresby, Rabaul, Lunga and Merauke. In doing so, Mini KB was wiped out and a bunch of very nice targets of opportunity fell (Manus, Aitape, Wewak, etc.). There's clean-up work to be done in this theater, so more fighting is likely, but this long, complex series of ops went remarkably well.

Gulp: The Allies are prepped and positioned for the next series of targets. Those will be much tougher and it will be nearly impossible to proceed without engaging KB. How, when and where to begin things is a matter of intense consideration.

Triage: Four turns ago, there were 120 ships at pierside in Townsville! That's down to about 55 now, and nearly all will be ready to go inside five days. Already the fleet could go if necessary but I still have to make those hard decisions.

China: An entire Japanese army (27 units) has withdrawn from Sian, heading east. A couple of B-24 squadrons were hitting the base daily, causing disruption and light losses. Also, Dave may have had wearisome supply issues. This is a major victory, but now it becomes vital to predict where that army goes. It could come right back here. It could go north. But most likely it heads south to help overwhelm at a give point, such as Changsha or a nearby contested hex. I have a few units in reserve that way. More will get on the road from Sian, but Dave's route-of-travel is much quicker. A tough and challenging balancing act, but fun.

[Anachro]

Fun stuff. The more I play this game, the more I realize how important it is to have deep follow-on ops planned, so as to quickly exploit the holes created by initial frontal attacks on a main line of defense.

[BBfanboy]

When DS went to Townsville, Dave had the same situation as you - he didn't know where it was and had to suspect it might be ready to pounce when you did the Merauke invasion.
Your previous battles shot down a lot of Netties, probably making him reluctant to send torpedo attacks at anything smaller than an APA or CA, and perhaps hampering his ability to send out long range naval search.
This game is hell when you don't have any info at all on your opponent's major forces! If you have suffered major losses and feel you need to stop the bleeding for a while, you are paralyzed. I think Dave is waiting and licking his wounds.

[Canoerebel]

That's true. Dave doesn't have recon on Townsville, though he is getting some 1/0 pings. DS's disappearance after Lunga may have him looking (again) for a move against Java, Sumatra or Malaya.

Regarding Anachro's comment, you're right, but it's difficult. In my game with Obvert, the massive Allied invasion of Sikhalin Island in June 1944 including a sizeable contingent of troops prepped for Korea! I was trying to "plan for success," but that was so wildly improbable that it was counterproductive. I'd have been much better off prepping for the Kuriles or Hokkaido. I learned something.

[Canoerebel]

2/20/44 to 3/2/44

SigInt: Dave has kept KB hidden. I suspect its somewhere near Sorong or points nearby and west, such as Kendari or possibly Palau - a central position from which it can react to threats from the DEI or SWPac. Today, I got this SigInt report. Bima is a level one port east of Soerabaja (and just out of range of Allied recon from Cocos Island). It's a good location for a KB. Is there any reason to strongly suspect that DD Hatsuyaki is of a class commonly associated with KB, or of a class unlikely to be used with KB, or is it simply too uncertain to make any deductions whatsoever?

SWPac: With DS back online, the fleet and The Herd returned to the Solomon Sea, dropping invasion forces at Choiseul Island (vacant) and Shortlands, landing aviation support at Rabaul, and handling the invasion of Kaveing tomorrow. The latter seems weakly defended. The enemy at Shortlands is decent but the Allied force, small though it is, includes tanks that battered the enemy on a probing deliberate attack. And if Kavieng goes well, the Allied ships have reinforcements for Manus and Aitape also. Paratroops took a vacant Finchshaven. Lae is a major enemy base - the last Dave seems to be using.

I debated whether to reveal DS after it's 10-day R&R at Townsville. Ultimately, the decision was to handle matters around New Georgia since I'm not ready to press against a KB-sized force yet. But that day may not be too far off.

[JohnDillworth]

Havn't seen the strategic map in a bit. Although ambitious, one wonders if taking Truk is a possibility.

[Canoerebel]

Truk is strongly garrisoned and I have no troops prepping for it. The planned axis of advance renders Truk largely irrelevant, at least in the next six months. But Allied troops are prepping for Yap and Wolei. How can they be relevant if Truk isn't? Stay tuned.

[Anachro]

I agree. These things are always contextual, dependent to the particular game being played and its multitude of outcomes, but Truk can easily be bypassed and have happen to it what happened in the real world: simply neutralize it using carrier air power/sea power and effectively take it out of the war along with its garrison.

[BBfanboy]

Hatsuyuki is a Fubuki Class DD - 6X5" guns and 9X 24"TT. A capable ship with weak AA. Older than the Kageros.

If it had been Hatsuzuki, an Akizuki class ship with 8X 3.9" RF guns (very good AA) I would be more certain it was with KB, but Hatsuyuki could be on ASW duty - or it could be with KB. Does that help?[:D]

http://www.combinedfleet.com/kaigun.htm

[SuluSea]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Is there any reason to strongly suspect that DD Hatsuyaki is of a class commonly associated with KB, or of a class unlikely to be used with KB, or is it simply too uncertain to make any

Early war a definite no because of poor AA and it doesn't have the legs of other classes the KB being located closer to fuel sources the smaller fuel tanks wouldn't be an issue.

Some later upgrades on the Fubuki gives fair AA to the class but it still lags behind other DDs players traditionally use in KB and mini KB.

With attrition it's possible but I'd lean heavily towards a no.

Thanks for the update.

[Canoerebel]

3/3/44 to 3/8/44

Meeting Engagement: As this period opened, Allied transports protected by full DS advanced into the Bismarck Sea to cover reinforcements inbound to Rabaul. NavSearch continually reported heavy Japanese combat TFs at Hollandia. DS then moved west, towards Finschafen, to cover transports moving north, bound for that base plus Manus plus Aitape. As they neared that place, Dave still hadn't moved his combat ships, so I ordered DS forward at flank speed. Some combat TFs sank a bunch of enemy ASW TFs off Hollandia but weather largely shut down any strikes vs. shipping at Hollandia.

So the jig is up, right? Dave sees DS right at his doorstep. He'll flee, getting his good ships out of harm's way. Relying on that assessment, I sent the Aitape and Manus transports forward, pulled DS back just a bit, and figured it would be a quiet turn.

Only it wasn't. Dave sent his combat TFs forward, probably intent on mixing things up to delay a perceived Allied move on Hollandia until KB could arrive. KB shows up near Manikwari on the 8th and may proceed at flank...or Allied subs may continue to breathe caution into Dave.

DS ended up close to three enemy CAs, which ended up amidst a host of Allied shipping. Fireworks opened with USN DD forces sparring with Dave's TFs, neither side scoring any knockouts but Myoko TF running out of ammo. DS strikes sortied all over the place, missing too many times and sometimes seeking merchantmen instead of combat ships. Myoko is crippled and probably sunk, along with four or five enemy DDs and a sub.

An Allied sub misses shots at Kaga and is sunk.

An enemy sub scores a hit on Bunker Hill.

Four xAKs, an xAP and a DE bound for Aitape go under, taking a Marine CD force with them. But reinforcements land in big numbers at Manus and Finschafen.

And now what? DS & The Herd will retire - the Herd components at Manus to Rabaul, all other ships towards Milne Bay. Taking that vector, they'll be in position to move into the Gulf of Carpentaria if Dave overcommits KB or if Allied subs manage a hit or two on KB.

I don't think Dave will send KB forward at flank. I think he'll prefer to protect Hollandia and remain in a position to retire to the DEI, poste haste.

Knowing how highly he regards Hollandia is useful info.

That was a wild, rollicking turn.

[Canoerebel]

3/9/44

New Guinea Theater: Dave pushed KB hard but chose a course that took her where there were no targets. KB and DS ended up 10 hexes apart. Tomorrow, nearly all Allied ships should reach or approach Milne Bay. I don't think Dave will chance the straights to enter the Solomon Sea, but he's tactically uber aggressive. KB has 950 aircraft (this is based on just one day of navsearch, so may be low). DS has 1400, but about 500 of that is CVEs. DS is almost strong enough to seek battle (and another CV will arrive on scene in about a week).

With KB committed, using fuel, and in waters patrolled by Allied subs, there's a chance that friction will cause losses or slow downs or missteps. Therefore, three Allied invasion fleets are at sea, targeting targets of opportunity, so to speak. I won't commit any of these unless the conditions continue to be favorable, which I think will be the case for at least one.

The Japanese lead is 28.6k to 22.9k. While these campaigns are fought on their own merits, I'm keeping an eye on the AV ratio and the all-important denominator. AV seems attainable in this game. In this little campaign, the Allies have thus far scored well in air losses and combat ship losses (having lost one small DD and one good sub, while Japan has probably lost a CA, four DDs and at least one sub, possibly two). In terms of merchant losses, an Allied TF worth about 55 points was sunk, and I think the Japanese have lost about 75 points. That makes the overall points ratio for the past two turns maybe 2:1 in favor of the Allies - okay but not great. It's very hard to score decisively when two large bodies collide, creating friction and the unexpected meeting engagements.

[BBfanboy]

Over the years the biggest losses I have seen for KB clashing with Allied carriers happened when the Allies had transports also in range of the KB strikes. The AI split the KB strikes to go after both transports and the Allied carriers, sinking a few transports but having their strikes decimated and doing minimal damage to the Allies.
You have such a situation with all your amphib forces, so you probably do not need to fear losing a carrier battle while DS is with all the bait ships.[:)]