Did You Know I Used to Drive a Rollercoaster?: Apbarog(A) vs OPilot(J)

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: apbarog

31 Mar 43

Northeast of Mersing, in shallow water, Dutch sub KXIV hit E-boat W-4, which was escorting at least one cargo ship. The E-boat was sunk. It's dangerous to patrol in shallow water, but it's good to show the willingness to do so occasionally. It gets the enemy to spend time patrolling the shallows. After being seen, it's best to leave though. OPilot is thorough and follows up these kind of spottings.

Corsairs and Spits swept Lae, something that hasn't been done in a months. Zeros were on patrol. The Corsairs did exceptionally well. The Spits did ok. 26 Zeros were downed for the loss of 2 Corsairs and 1 Spit.

South of Mindanao, Steelhead spotted the AO task force that left Babeldaob and headed west. 4 torpedoes were fired at AO Shiretoko. 3 hit, almost certainly sinking the empty tanker. That's 10 non-dud torpedo hits in a row. Assuming the current dud rate is 40% (something I'm not sure of), the odds of 10 in a row are only 0.6%. My dud rate for 1943 has been 20 duds out of 55 hits, for 36.4%. It was just over 40% before this lucky run.

4 US carriers are leaving Townsville for Darwin, along with a bunch of APAs. The invasion of Timor is up next.

The manual does say the dud rate for tops with over 49% duds is reduced by 20% on Jan. 01, 1943. US Sub torps were at 80% duds before then so are at 60% duds (40% effective) rate now. Your results are within the ballpark for that rate.
In September 1943 the dud rate drops to 10% for all torps with a dud rate greater than 20%. There may be some torps that stay stuck at the 20% dud rate (perhaps the air-dropped ones or PT/MTB ones?).

[apbarog]

1 Apr 43

Snook fired 4 torpedoes at TK Hirota Maru in the middle of the South China Sea, south of Cam Ranh Bay. The enemy is still using a mid-ocean convoy route for at least some of the tankers. A torpedo hit, but it was a dud. Of course this was just after noting the 10-in-a-row non-dud hits.

Two big Oscar squadrons swept the Chinese capital. I haven't had fighters there in awhile, but OPilot is being cautious. He might expect me to move in some today, so he won't bomb. But if I don't react, and I'm not, he'll be bombing soon. It's only worth my effort if I guess the right day, and even then, face lots of sweeping fighters.

The usual enemy bombing in China, the usual Allied bombing in Burma and the Marshalls.

Some forces in Burma are moving to Rangoon for rest and recovery. Lots of engineers are headed to the Burma/China border, to build up nearby Chinese bases.

Wasp, 5 CVEs, 3 CAs, 11 CLs and many destroyers just went into refit at Pearl Harbor, Sydney and Brisbane.

[apbarog]

2 Apr 43

Sub attack near Satawal at 104,105

Japanese Ships
CV Akagi
DD Hamakaze
DD Ushio
DD Umikaze

Allied Ships
SS Tinosa

SS Tinosa launches 6 torpedoes at CV Akagi

Akagi was about a day's travel west-northwest of Truk. OPilot has been known to have his carriers lingering out away from a base, avoiding detection. This could be that, or the carriers could be inbound to Truk. Too bad about the 6 torpedo misses.

S-28 was transiting past Koepang when it was found by an E-boat. W-10 hit it with a depth charge and some near misses. The sub is moderately damaged and is ordered to return to Darwin.

Shad missed destroyer Nenohi with 2 torpedoes near Gasmata, west of Rabaul. The enemy continue to run destroyer task forces out of Rabaul, moving to mostly unknown locations during the night and then returning. Buna has gotten more enemy troops over time in this manner. It has about 21,000 men now. Destroyer runs have also moved down the Solomons to unknown bases.

Steelhead missed xAK Tatuharu Maru with 4 torpedoes south of Mindanao.

OPilot swept Changsha. I figured he'd not go back to the capital again immediately. Since I didn't react, he may do so now.

Enemy units, possibly the tank division, is moving southwest into the mountains instead of directly west to Lanchow. Not sure what that is about. A Chinese corp is in the mountains, and has supply, for now. It may just be one of the small infantry units moving there.

North of Townsville, on the way to Darwin, 2 APA's ran into each other. Both are carrying troops. One is lightly damaged and will continue with the convoy. The other is heavily damaged and slowed. It is ordered to break off with a destroyer and return to Townsville, where its unit fragment will reload on another ship to head to Darwin. Every APA is valuable, with lots of invasion action coming soon.

Speaking of which, it looks like Koepang will be moved up ahead of Dili and Lautern. Troops for Koepang are more prepped than the others. Troops for Ambon are completely prepped, but that's a bigger jump behind the lines. I may go to Ambon after Koepang but before Dili and Lautern, due to preparation.

[BBfanboy]

Those subs have had their share of problems. Just when they get some partial improvement in torpedo reliability they discover their "Is/Was" computers are borked! I can understand missing a fast-moving Carrier and DD with good lookout discipline, but missing a Maru ...!

[apbarog]

3 Apr 43

xAK Akagisan Maru found a recently laid sub mine on the coast near Sapporo. I'd spotted a convoy hugging the coast awhile back, and the cargo ship found the mines before a minesweeper did.

Sub Saury had a good day. A convoy of small tankers was spotted moving south of Puerto Princesa. Saury hit TK Sanraku Maru with a torpedo, then attacked again later in the day and hit TK Juko Maru with 2 torpedoes. No duds today. Sinking audio was heard after both attacks. The tankers were not loaded and headed west towards Borneo.

B-25s bombed Tavoy, doing moderate airfield damage. No CAP. Other B-25s bombed the 51st Naval Guard on Makin. Over 200 casualties in clear terrain. The enemy unit is being bombed to oblivion. I don't feel bad about it, considering what the Chinese have endured for over a year. Makin will be invaded soon.

P-38s from Darwin swept Koepang, finding a big CAP of 78 Oscars. The Lightnings did well at first, dropping Oscar after Oscar. Many more Oscars than Lightnings went down, but a number of P-38s didn't make it back to Darwin. Total losses were 16 Oscars for the loss of 11 P-38s. Not good enough to continue. 2 new double aces and 2 new aces were created. An ace was KIA, another was WIA, and 3 were MIA. Sounds devasting but this squadron has the best of the best, with many aces. Hard not to lose some.

In an unexpected attack, 16 B-25s flew from south of Darwin to Koepang, on a low level naval strike. They'd had the orders for a long time but never flew. Maybe they were encouraged to be following the P-38s in. They went to Koepang unescorted, and found 42 Oscars. But the Oscars never got to the bombers, either inbound or outbound.

Morning Air attack on TF, near Koepang at 68,116

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 38 NM, estimated altitude 2,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 11 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-43-IIb Oscar x 42

Allied aircraft
B-25C Mitchell x 16

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
B-25C Mitchell: 8 damaged

Japanese Ships
CA Myoko
CL Yura, Bomb hits 1
DD Hayashio

Aircraft Attacking:
16 x B-25C Mitchell bombing from 1000 feet *
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 lb SAP Bomb

It was a fluke, but it somehow worked out.

Enemy carriers spotted at Truk. Not too many, but some.

[Bif1961]

His Oscars were probably flying much higher CAP and by the time you were spotted, dropping bombs, making you lighter and faster they couldn't catch you. I had a situation when my P-38s were only at 15,000 feet on CAP and he was at 10,000 feet with 17 Jills and I didn't intercept as he bombed my ships.

[apbarog]

I think you are right Bif1961. I can't explain the long time to reach interception though.

CAP engaged:
24th Sentai with Ki-43-IIb Oscar (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(11 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
20 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 12000 , scrambling fighters between 12000 and 17000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 77 minutes
50th Sentai with Ki-43-IIb Oscar (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(9 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
22 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 13000 , scrambling fighters between 13000 and 20000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 37 minutes

[apbarog]

4 Apr 43

Snook fired 2 torpedoes at TK Kyokuho Maru near the coast of Vietnam. Both torpedoes hit, but both were duds. SigInt mentions an unusual number of E-boats going to various locations. I think the recent tanker hits have triggered more E-boat deployments.

16 Corsairs swept Rahaeng and found 84 Oscars. Despite the numbers, the F4Us did well. 25 P-38Fs then swept, finding 60 Oscars. The Lightnings did ok but not as well as the Corsairs. Total air losses were 31 Oscars for the cost of 6 P-38Fs and 3 F4Us. The P-38F pool is dry, and this unit upgrades to the G model, which has a busy unit at Darwin, so there aren't enough G's to fill out this squadron.

On the China coast near Swatow, British sub Trusty just arrived to drop some mines. It spotted 2 E-boats and another big convoy with tankers. Trusty fired 2 torpedoes at E Ishizaki. Both hit, and the ship was heard to sink. Mines were dropped afterwards. This engagement may alert OPilot to what was really going on there.

Enemy base Koepang, on Timor, became a level 8 airfield. The plan is for this large base to become Allied in the near future. Allied carriers are loitering near Darwin, unseen. A large group of newly refit APAs are approaching Gove where they will unload some units and supply. Some will then load up an infantry division for Koepang. Others will go to Darwin to load up. So the invasion is soon.

[jwolf]

Enemy base Koepang, on Timor, became a level 8 airfield. The plan is for this large base to become Allied in the near future.

That's a clever use for some irregular "Allied" construction units.

[RangerJoe]

You could break the P-38F unit up and upgrade each segment once you get enough P-38Gs. This would also allow you to use up as many P-38Fs as possible.

[apbarog]

The P-38F squadron still has 20, so I'll go with that for now. Just not enough P-38Gs being produced to keep 2 squadrons full strength.

5 Apr 43

Lots of enemy E-boat activity around Formosa and to the east. Mingo spotted a tanker convoy south of Okinawa but didn't get a shot. This is a new area for tankers. I'm sure that convoy routes are being shuffled. Hake missed E Wakatake with 2 torpedoes near Taihoku. Halibut missed xAK Tatuharu Maru near Lomblen.

I shipped almost all of the Chinese fighters back to China and to the capital but no strike. Bad weather may have prevented them from being spotted. I think I'm just starting to see a small effect of more supply in China. It's very slow, and no effect in the north yet, but some central bases have a bit more supply than before. The 500 Burma road bonus helps. Many engineers are walking into China from Burma. They'll be building nearby Chinese bases soon.

APA unloading at Gove will take a few days. The ships are in transport mode and only so many can dock at once. They need to be unloaded in order to pick up an infantry division there. Allied carriers are loitering at Bathurst, next to Darwin, still unseen. Tankers topped off all three carrier task forces.

[apbarog]

6 Apr 43

Saury missed E Hiyodori with 2 torpedoes near Puerto Princesa. Lapon missed SC Cha-43 with 2 torpedoes near Tokara Retto. S-34 missed PB Tama Maru #8 with 2 torpedoes near Kofiau.

Allied carriers still loitering near Darwin, undetected. APAs still unloading troops and supply at Gove. They'll load an infantry division when emptied.

Same old enemy bombing in China, with the daily randomness of some of the locations of the air strikes. Lots of Allied fighters at Chungking, and still not spotted.

Lots of Allied engineers leaving Lashio heading into China. If there happens to be a bridge out on the way, maybe one taken out by bombs dropped from a US transport plane, they can fix it. You know he used to drive a roller coaster.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: apbarog

You know he used to drive a roller coaster.

[:D] Sly!

[apbarog]

7 Apr 43

US subchasers are hunting between Darwin and Babar. They found I-122 south of Babar and hit it with a depth charge and many near misses. The sub was forced to surface, but the ships weren't able to hit it. "Sub slips beneath the waves", but it may not have really been sunk.

Changsha got a lot of enemy attention. Over 100 Oscars swept the town before bombers arrived, with more escorts. No CAP though. Supply does seem to be slowly increasing in China, mostly in the west and central parts so far. The northeast is still out of supply. Other enemy bomber strikes were in China, like every other day. I don't usually mention them.

B-25s hit Chiang Mai, bombing at 20,000 feet to avoid flak. The airbase is moderately damaged. Today we do a maximum effort against Rahaeng, where there are over 70 enemy fighters. There will be fighter sweeps and lots of heavy bombers. A nearby base will be hit with B-25s.

Heavy bombers hit Ambon. An ACM was sunk in port, and the airbase took minor damage. No CAP.

Destroyer Mugford is escorting a CVE from Nauru to Tabiteuea. Both have heavy damage. Mugford sprung a new leak 3 hexes west of the destination, with FLOT damage going from 67 to 82. SYS is 30. Another bad day and the ship is lost.

[apbarog]

8 Apr 43

Enemy patrol boats and subchasers clear some mines laid by sub Trusty on the China coast. It was unfortunate that Trusty arrived there at the same time a big tanker convoy was passing through, instead of the day before. It brought attention that subs were patrolling the coast, and now the chasers have arrived and the minefield is discovered.

F4Us, P-38s and P-40Ks swept Rahaeng. There were 83 Oscars on CAP to begin with. The Corsairs did very well, even coming in first. The P-38s and P-40s did not do as well. Total losses were 26 Oscars for 10 P-40s, 9 P-38s and 2 F4Us. Heavy bombers hit the airfield, finding a reduced CAP. Light damage to the base, bombing at 20,000 feet. B-25s hit nearby Pisanuloke, were there was no enemy CAP, and did moderate damage to the base from 6,000 feet.

6 new aces were created in the sweeps, 4 of which were flying Corsairs.

It's interesting to note that a tanker convoy was spotted at Bangkok. The juggling of enemy convoy routes and friendly sub patrol routes continue.

[RangerJoe]

Well, maybe the next time that you lay a minefield off China or even anywhere, get some narrowly focused naval search to cover the area. Then long range attack bomber, fighters, and/or self escorting fighter bombers get to play with mines sweeping task forces as well as ASW task forces.

[apbarog]

Action has been a bit slow lately, but preparations have not. Here's a region by region update.

8 Apr 43 - Western China

[apbarog]

8 Apr 43 - Northern China

[apbarog]

8 Apr 43 - Solomons

[apbarog]

8 Apr 43 - The Marshalls