Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice)

[Canoerebel]

3/18/44

KB: Dave's carriers made another flank speed run (15 hexes today, 14 yesterday). They'll be low on fuel and are, no doubt, bound for Soerabaja - unless there's an AO TF right there, in which case all my calculations should be tossed out the window. But the best deduction is that KB won't be able to contest the Allied incursion north of Darwin for several more days.

I can't figure out whey he didn't vector KB towards Timor from the outset, rather than cruising to Port Headland. My best guess, in that case, is that he misjudged what was happening in the Arafura Sea until he'd committed elsewhere.

At this point, it seems the Allies have "seized the high ground." My ships are where they need to be, important and vacant enemy islands are nearby, and I'm able to carefully configure my guys without a lot of guesswork and high speed runs. I think Dave will have to scramble to attack, making his approach more risky.

Of course, all of that could go out the window with a lucky sub attack or other misfortune or misstep. So I'm not counting chickens, yet, but I do like their looks.

Far, Far Away: Another invasion force is approaching a beach, deep in Indian Country. I think it's a worthwhile endeavor because it adds to Dave's pressure points. But it's also risky in its own right. D-Day either two or three days away.

[Bif1961]

I know the feeling since I have lost the Essex and a CVE in the last 3 days to subs.

[BBfanboy]

4403182040Z COMPACOA - ADM. ROPER COMCANOES&REBELS:

THE TURKEY TROTS TO WATER;

QUOTE DEEP IN INDIAN COUNTRY UNQUOTE

INTERROGATIVE: DOES THIS MEAN THE ORIGINAL INDIANS OR THE MISNAMED ALEUT INDIANS?

THE WORLD WONDERS - END

[SuluSea]

That was a strange move.

Wondering the thinking....

If he loses a carrier battle you can ramp up operations even more, hence he's more a deterrent not fighting a CV battle but threatening at this point, picking off 'easy meat'.

With his carriers over on your left flank, hopefully CentPac can exploit it.

[Canoerebel]

Sulu, your thoughts are good ones.

First, regarding CenPac, an Allied invasion fleet is two hexes from Marcus, waiting a day for supply LSTs and a amphibious ship with the Amphibious Force HQ to come up. D-Day in two turns.

Second, regarding KB's moves in the IO, the possibility that Dave doesn't wish to give battle on these grounds with the current carrier OOBs for the two sides is definitely possible. Against some players, I'd feel confident of that. But Dave is uber aggressive tactically. That takes getting used to because he's uber conservative strategically.

[Canoerebel]

3/19/44

Timor Sea: The Allied plan developed in the summer of '43 envisioned starting with the invasion of Wake, moving to the New Guinea region, moving into the Arafura Sea/Timor Sea region, and then another step beyond that (not to be disclosed yet). As that plan unfolded, I backed off the Arafura Sea/Timor Sea because of KB's positioning and the chance to hit targets of opportunity, including Manus, Rabaul, and Lunga.

I figured that when the time came to advance into the waters between New Guinea and Oz/Timor it would be necessary to first seek and win a carrier battle before the transports could come up. That was the plan when the move finally commenced ten days ago. DS took the lead, accompanied by a small invasion TF intended to serve as a decoy. When KB advanced to give battle, the invasion TF would withdraw and DS would spring forward, hopefully the aggressiveness catching Dave by surprise and foiling any notions he might have for an 8-hex ambush.

But as DS advanced deep into the confined waters, lo and behold KB took off after a small invasion force that hit Port Headland (intended to serve as a distraction but I didn't expect it to work close to that well). So DS was suddenly in the heart of things, but the transports needed time to come up.

All that's in place now. The presence of the transports means that DS isn't quite so free to leap-forward and seek battle. But it was worth it, as I never envisioned being able to land at Saumlaki, Taberfane, etc. without big, risky fireworks first.

[Canoerebel]

3/20/44

KB: Full KB, with 950 aircraft, found at Soerabaja. This gives the Allies at least one more turn to land troops and supplies unmolested by the carriers. My fondest hope is that KB needs a few more days there to deal with accumulated wear and tear, fuel, etc. Right now, KB's absence gives the Allies freedom to act in the Timor Sea.

So Many Options, So Little Time: The Allies unexpectedly find themselves with this freedom to act. I did a pretty good job in bringing up the troop transports to seize the opportunities. Saumlaki taken today. Taberfane falls tomorrow. Dobo the day after. Reinforcing Saumlaki and landing at Babar would be the next step, if KB stays away, but I expect it to advance. In the case of KB's approach, what then? With all the transports in the region, DS's mission because more defensive than offensive, though I'll still consider a springing surprise move.

There's also the desire to invade Darwin. It's weakly defended and Dave may be writing it off already. If retirement by DS becomes desirable, I may cobble that with the invasion here.

This is an excellent situation. The downside, of course, is that if the Allies lose a carrier battle, all these forward land units will be isolated.

Marcus: D-Day tomorrow. There was a Mini KB at Woleai for a long time. It may still be in the area (I have to allow for that) or it may have moved over to the South China Sea to handle any threats from the Bay of Bengal. Allied CVEs at Marcus total 160 aircraft, which I think is sufficient to handle what was at Woleai. But there could be additional carriers, etc. But Dave has poor detection, too, and I think he'll have to get a sense of things before he'd commit.

[Canoerebel]

03/21/44

The Allies accomplished some things today:

Timor Sea: Tons of engineers and base forces ashore at Taberfane, with lots of supply. So it's pretty secure for the foreseeable future, and a great listening post. Landing at Dobo unopposed.

KB disappeared from Soerabaja. Likely course is for the Banda Sea. The Allies will weigh anchor and retire tonight. If KB does come, the day after tomorrow DS will turn about and seek to give battle. I like this plan, partly because Dave isn't likely to expect it.

Lots of enemy subs arrive on the scene. It taunts with fears and yips, but nothing can be done other than to properly configure defense and proceed.

Marcus Island: Allied invasion succeeds on D-Day, a stunning result (especially considering my tattered history of atoll invasions). How does Dave react? What does he have to react with? I have six CVEs and BBs South Dakota (repaired after Rabaul) and Maryland on the scene, with a fair number of APAs and AKA, so the tables could turn quickly and painfully.

[Canoerebel]

3/22/45

Insufficient Info! I still don't have good info on KB. Given possible sighting near Wetar and the likelihood that Dave would bring his carriers here, I'm playing it on that assumption.

After many hours of thought, I found a course of action I think works either way. DS will move west, which should surprise Dave. That's close enough to KB that a carrier action could ensue, if that is KB and it continues strongly SE. The move also allows an invasion of Darwin, if KB isn't lurking. And, finally, DS's position will be a long way from the big LBA nests Dave is using.

Arg, he has so many subs closing! I have lots of good ASW TFs, so we've got to force the issue.

A USN sub scored a hit on Dave's CL that raided Kai-eilanden yesterday. No sinking sounds heard, but it's outa action for a long time.

Man, this game is fun.

[BillBrown]

Too bad you do not have a PBY unit at Saumlaki, that suspect TF would then be within the 12 hex radius of good Naval search.

[Canoerebel]

There's no aviation support there, but I shoulda gone ahead and moved a PBY squadron there. That's what I did at Marcus, but here I figured that Taberfane was sufficient.

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

There's no aviation support there, but I shoulda gone ahead and moved a PBY squadron there. That's what I did at Marcus, but here I figured that Taberfane was sufficient.

AVDs or AVPs [;)]

[Canoerebel]

Those guys would be dead ducks in this environment.

[Canoerebel]

3/23/44

Timor Sea: No sign of KB, so greenlight for invasion of Darwin.

[Crackaces]

I note here you went the amphibious route rather than build up airfields and fort levels Daily Waters down to Darwin. Certainly the amphib route is more direct and uses less supply .. but it possible to drive North overland with a concerted effort ..

One thing i... it does not seem that the IJ have built interlocking fighter bases but soon the Allies will be in such a position. The IJ have extracted all the fuel they are going to get from the DEI [8D]

[Canoerebel]

All signs indicated Dave was convinced the big Allied assault would come from the Bay of Bengal or the Aleutians. A slow advance from Alice Springs would've alerted him to other possibilities. (But in other situations, a land advance would make a lot of sense.)

[SuluSea]

Entertaining presentation, great job. I was wondering the situation in CBI theater.

[Canoerebel]

CBI has also been about misperceptions.

The Allies have not troops in Burma, and haven't since the first months of the war. All the units usually there are in Ceylon and Madras (or were, until recently). Dave knew that (partly because he squashed an early invasion armada). With no Allied troops in Burma, he's always understood that a big Allied invasion effort might take place anywhere in theater at any time. And I think he's given a lot of thought, and devoted a lot of units (KB, mainly) to being prepared. I tried to use that to fix his attention there while moving elsewhere.

[BBfanboy]

A thought on KB positioning -

You punched a big hole in the SE corner of the DE and now he doesn't know if you will push west or north from there. He probably feels most vulnerable to a thrust toward Sorong and Ambon/Boela. Thus he may have KB lurking near that big bay that forms the NG turkey's neck. It would be beyond your most effective search and using that bay would give KB protection from any SCTFs or subs currently on the south side of NG.

As you have said, he is conservative strategically so he is being careful with KB now but he is tactically aggressive so he needs a relatively safe place to try and mess up your invasion plans.

[Canoerebel]

That makes sense. As you'll see in the next post, I put the odds at 50/50 that KB is lurking in the DEI, awaiting the right opportunity. The other 50 is that it's hightailing it to Marcus. Some players wouldn't perceive Marcus as a major threat; others would. It does give the Allies NavSearch of the Marianas and almost to Tokyo. Dave is bound to do something somewhere soon.