Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice)

[Canoerebel]

3/24/44

Marcus: Lack of info about KB in the DEI helps shape Allied plans here.

DEI: With no sign of KB or other opposition, D-Day at Darwin goes smoothly. Two enemy naval guard units and one militia unit combine to create about 150 AV, but without guns or AFVs. The Allies have 700+ AV ashore, including most of 3rd Marine Div. (75% prepped) and all of 7th Infantry Div. (100% prepped). This base will fall pretty quickly.

DS will remain stationary tomorrow, receiving the empty transports retiring from Darwin.

Troops transports laden with troops prepped for Koepang (14k garrison) have reached Horn Island. If KB does show up at Marcus, immediate green light.

[CaptBeefheart]

Every time I come back to this AAR I expect a big carrier clash. You guys are like Lucy holding the football for Charlie Brown. [:)]

Good move on Marcus and good luck at Darwin.

Cheers,
CB

[Canoerebel]

As readers, we sure do enjoy the big battles. The periods between them can get pretty dry.

I wanted a carrier battle in the Timor Sea, but Dave withdrew, much to my surprise. But something's gonna have to happen fairly soon.

[Canoerebel]

3/25/44

Timor Sea: Invasions of Port Headland, Marcus Island, and the Timor Sea region have gone well. No enemy activity in the latter theater today. Going into this series of ops it seemed like I was sticking my hand into a hornet's nest. But Dave pulled back, for reasons unclear but likely to become clear eventually.

[BBfanboy]

If you are 50/50 on KB being ready to strike in the DEI or Marcus area. does that mean he is almost certainly headed for the IO? [:D]

[Canoerebel]

3/26/44

Timor Sea: No sign of KB; no major enemy activity. Allied ASW sinks two subs near DS & The Herd.

Unloading is complete at Darwin. The Koepang invasion TFs will move up to join DS a hex NE of it's present position. Tomorrow or the day after, I'll have to decide whether to give the green light or not. DS sorties, etc. are in pretty good shape, so if KB isn't seen, perhaps the green light it shall be.

Marcus: That Mini KB continues to loiter over near Iwo Jima. This is helpful info - Dave didn't feel comfortable enough to commit. And, since he never got any detection of Mini-CVE-DS, he'll probably have to remain careful when future actions take place. I still half expect KB to show up here in the next turn or three.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

If you are 50/50 on KB being ready to strike in the DEI or Marcus area. does that mean he is almost certainly headed for the IO? [:D]

I'm keeping an eye on Cocos Island.

[Canoerebel]

3/27/44

Timor Sea: It looks like Dave is assembling a sizeable force of combat ships; where they are, can KB be far behind?

My guys are ready to move on Koepang, but won't leap into the unknown. A CVE Mini-DS is moving up from Perth. And it's possible Darwin could flip tomorrow; if not then, a day or two afterwards. That would give me augmented navsearch and an excellent base to retreat to, if the going should get rough.

No sign of KB or Mini KB up near Marcus. If KB should magically appear at some such distant locale, the greenlight would immediately go on for Koepang.

In recent days, the Allies have also picked up Buna and Port Headland (did I mention that previously?). The Japanese still hold Tulagi, Lae and the base at the other end of the island where Kaveing is located. But Dave isn't currently making any use of them.

[BBfanboy]

I recommend moving DS and Koepang invasion TFs to the hex SW of the island above Darwin. That would look like a move toward Wyndham and would dodge the subs converging on the current position. The disadvantage is the limited sea room for emergency movement if required.

[Canoerebel]

Keeping him guessing is a good idea, but there's too much history now to deke Dave into thinking I'd move on Wyndham by sea. He knows I have troops advancing overland, he's seen long-term recon of Timor, etc.

But with his subs positioned the way they are, I think he would fall for a feint move on Saumlaki and vicinity.

But I'm not sure feints are necessary at this point. I don't want to take on KB near Koepang, a level 8 airfield with Roti, a level 6, next door. This move is predicated upon KB showing up elsewhere, although that looks less and less likely. In the meantime, I'd like to whittle down his subs some more.

[jdsrae]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

I recommend moving DS and Koepang invasion TFs to the hex SW of the island above Darwin. That would look like a move toward Wyndham and would dodge the subs converging on the current position. The disadvantage is the limited sea room for emergency movement if required.

I spent some time in this part of the world. The islands just north of Darwin are the Tiwi Islands.
Melville Island fills the hex with the Bathurst Island dot base in it, Bathurst Island is kind of split in the next few hexes W/NW of the dot.

With KB unaccounted for you could use Darwin as a staging base and take the time to bombard Timor air bases before hopping there.
You could build up the NT air bases Darwin/Fenton/Katherine something like the map below:
https://www.ozatwar.com/airfields/fighterguidemap.jpg

Airfields were developed on the Tiwis in about 44, but by the time they were built they weren’t needed.

Of course that would all take time that you might want to spend elsewhere.

[JohnDillworth]

Looks like Koepang/Ambon is a line in the sand. If you want to go there it will be contested. No, KB is not far off (unless it went in for an ill timed refit). Perhaps you can pick off some CA's and such with "safe" strikes from the DS but if the KB does show sometimes carriers have am mind of their own and react to places you might not want to go. Seems the low hanging fruit has been picked in this orchard

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: jdsrae

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

I recommend moving DS and Koepang invasion TFs to the hex SW of the island above Darwin. That would look like a move toward Wyndham and would dodge the subs converging on the current position. The disadvantage is the limited sea room for emergency movement if required.

I spent some time in this part of the world. The islands just north of Darwin are the Tiwi Islands.
Melville Island fills the hex with the Bathurst Island dot base in it, Bathurst Island is kind of split in the next few hexes W/NW of the dot.

With KB unaccounted for you could use Darwin as a staging base and take the time to bombard Timor air bases before hopping there.
You could build up the NT air bases Darwin/Fenton/Katherine something like the map below:
https://www.ozatwar.com/airfields/fighterguidemap.jpg

Airfields were developed on the Tiwis in about 44, but by the time they were built they weren’t needed.

Of course that would all take time that you might want to spend elsewhere.

Very sporting of the AAF to mark the map with the best crash landings spots! [:D]

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth
Looks like Koepang/Ambon is a line in the sand. If you want to go there it will be contested. No, KB is not far off (unless it went in for an ill timed refit). Perhaps you can pick off some CA's and such with "safe" strikes from the DS but if the KB does show sometimes carriers have am mind of their own and react to places you might not want to go. Seems the low hanging fruit has been picked in this orchard

This may be a case where the reader has a better feel for what's going on than the player does. You may be able to see the forest without getting distracted by the trees. I may be so focused on the trees that I'm not seeing the forest clearly.

I agree that KB is most likely in this theater.

[jwolf]

After you get Darwin, would it make more sense to go for the Lautem/Dili end of Timor rather than Koepang? It would be somewhat closer to your own bases and consequently less (?) risky.

[Canoerebel]

3/28/44

Timor Sea: Darwin fell to the Allies today.

What's Next? No sign of KB; DS will move a few hexes forward, partly to see if it prompts a reaction and partly to allow ASW to likewise move forward under cover of LRCAP.

DS is almost strong enough now to take on KB in battle. It could do with some time in port to replenish and reorganize while waiting for Perth Mini DS to arrive (just a few days away), for the Marcus Mini DS to arrive (a week or more away) and for CV Wasp and CVL Langley to come up (ten days). But before DS retires, there is also the option of landing additional troops at Saumlaki and doing snap invasions of undefended Babar and Damar.

At Perth and Townsville, there are huge armies prepped for Java and the islands just to the "south" (east, in real life). If the Allies manage a carrier victory, the offensives will continue long into the summer months. Win a carrier battle (easier written than done) and the Allies should be in the heart of the DEI by summer.

The first B-29-1s have arrived at Karachi. They'll be used for strat bombing in the DEI, and possibly against occupied China. Can the -29s fly from a level five airfield or do they need a seven?

I tried to draw recruits into an air squadron a few days back and got a message "no more pilot slots." Isn't that an issue that created real problems for players some time back? I thought it was fixed. I don't know if it's a problem or not.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: jwolf

After you get Darwin, would it make more sense to go for the Lautem/Dili end of Timor rather than Koepang? It would be somewhat closer to your own bases and consequently less (?) risky.

It would, indeed, if I had troops prepped. But when prep was ordered a month or so ago, Koepang was weakly defended. It would take awhile to prep units now. I'm not sure yet whether it'll be necessary to press "pause" that long.

[Canoerebel]

To explain that better, I have a limited number of units available for prepping for new targets. The Allied invasions have come quickly, one after another, in the last four months. At the outset, dozens of units were prepped for the first wave - from Wake to Ponape to Lunga to Port Moresby to Milne Bay to Merauke to Rabaul. That was a lot of units fully or highly prepped. As those bases fell, one by one, prep was switched to more advance targets, including Koepand and Darwin. There are few major fighting units around that aren't fully engaged and fully prepped, or fully prepped and waiting for green lights. I might find a unit at, say, Buna, and another at Lunga. In addition to prep time there's the need to send ships and escorts to recover them in order to cobble together a force for a likely target, like Lautem. Much more complicated than it would seem, at first.

[jwolf]

Makes sense ... so many targets, so few divisions. Good luck as you proceed.

[Uncivil Engineer]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

3/28/44

Timor Sea: Darwin fell to the Allies today.

What's Next? No sign of KB; DS will move a few hexes forward, partly to see if it prompts a reaction and partly to allow ASW to likewise move forward under cover of LRCAP.

DS is almost strong enough now to take on KB in battle. It could do with some time in port to replenish and reorganize while waiting for Perth Mini DS to arrive (just a few days away), for the Marcus Mini DS to arrive (a week or more away) and for CV Wasp and CVL Langley to come up (ten days). But before DS retires, there is also the option of landing additional troops at Saumlaki and doing snap invasions of undefended Babar and Damar.

At Perth and Townsville, there are huge armies prepped for Java and the islands just to the "south" (east, in real life). If the Allies manage a carrier victory, the offensives will continue long into the summer months. Win a carrier battle (easier written than done) and the Allies should be in the heart of the DEI by summer.

The first B-29-1s have arrived at Karachi. They'll be used for strat bombing in the DEI, and possibly against occupied China. Can the -29s fly from a level five airfield or do they need a seven?

I tried to draw recruits into an air squadron a few days back and got a message "no more pilot slots." Isn't that an issue that created real problems for players some time back? I thought it was fixed. I don't know if it's a problem or not.

B-29's need a 7 airfield to avoid operational penalties; para 9.4 according to Jose's amigo Manual

I think the "no more pilot slots" message occurs when you try to draw pilots from reserve or TRACOM and there are NO pilots in reserve or TRACOM. I've don't ever recall seeing the message drawing from replacements or ANY.