Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice)

[Canoerebel]

4/16/44

Celebes: The dark hours end and a new day dawns. There are a lot of enemy patrols up. More than usual, so Dave is working his notions hard. There are a lot of Allied patrols up, but they don't find anything large enough to prompt one of the two types of audio announcements.

My hypothesis is that Dave is leery of committing KB and combat TFs directly against DS - that his forces are still too weak, with a meaningful number undergoing repair. So LBA and subs are his weapons of choice.

I think the Allied carrier merger took place, so I can consider possible offensive options...but now I have a damaged CVE to manage, too.

[Canoerebel]

4/16/44

Celebes: P.M. search phase. No "spotted enemy carriers" audio, but there are enemy carriers just NE of Watampone.

[Canoerebel]

4/16/44

Celebes: The p.m. search/air phase has ended. The turn is drawing to a close.

[Canoerebel]

4/16/44

Celebes: Dave's released enough chaff to clutter the radar screen. I'm uncertain as to what his intentions are.

[Canoerebel]

4/16/44

Celebes: Chenango developed a bad limp but isn't mortally wounded.

I'm mulling over three options. I've entered all the other orders around the map, and now I'm just staring at the screen, waiting for inspiration.

1. Retire a bit, both to provide escort to Chenago and to see what develops - to get a better feel for what Dave's up to. He's clearly adopted an aggressive posture. What am I getting into?

2. Remain in or close to the current position, for basically the same reasons.

3. Move more aggressively NE or ENE, creating some separation from KB but setting up a possible move on Ternate. I would detach Chenango with strong escort (the sub threat hasn't spread to points SE, as best I can tell). Part of this would be to try to draw some of Sorong's massive air power into DS CAP.

[Canoerebel]

Decision: CVE Chenango to split off, escorted towards Darwin. DS & The Herd to move ENE to near Ambon, in position to move on Ternate the day after tomorrow. If things get hairy, the APDs would divert to several of the many dot hexes near Ambon. I hope this move and position will give me another day to watch Dave's deployments and figure out his intentions, keep applying pressure, and perhaps draw a costly LBA attack that DS CAP can chew on. The most important mission of the day might be continued work against enemy subs.

CV Wasp and the seven CVEs rendezvoused with DS, so the absence of Chenango won't be markedly missed.

CV Hornet leaves Darwin today, bound for Sydney. CVE Altamah is near Townsville and bound for Sydney. The two damaged CVLs are east of Luganville and bound for Pearl.

There is an inbound CVL nearing Luganville. CV Bunker Hill at Townsville is about 15 days from being ready. CV Yorktown at Darwin is about 10 days away.

[RangerJoe]

Chenango - the ship that refuses to die! [&o]

Some of those "single ship task forces" also appear to be two ships. Could those be midget subs being carried to look into ports?

[Canoerebel]

Could be.

[BBfanboy]

Re: those Judys over Koepang - Japan gets some recon versions of the Judy by 1944. I would suspect that was recon missions. Your DL on the base should tell if he managed other successful recons.

Re: the horde of single ship TFs - I kinda doubt he had that many subs to bring in from one direction and I don't think there are that many subs that can carry mini-subs. My suspicion would be small fry to use up your ammo, both SCTF and carrier sorties. The ships near Waigeo would be in good position to follow up if they are SCTFs.

No matter what his actual intentions are, he is playing the "Mind game" part very well but your moves are surprising him too. Great entertainment and instructional too! [&o]

[JohnDillworth]

I think you might have your head stuck in the fence here. You are surrounded on 3 sides and your opponent wants to contest the threat. Don't discount the possibly that his posture is not so much as to confront you but to provide protection for reinforcing his current potion. The most likely outcome of this is standoff with both of you racing to reinforce your current positions and lots of planes and ships lost doing just that. Hard to see how either one of you could throw the other off. Grabbing something else is a good play here and Ternate will take some pressure off. This is going to be fun and expensive me thinks

[Canoerebel]

The fighting should be fierce and decisive. Dave has the advantage of his large network of big airfields plus proximity to shipyards. The Allies have the advantage in numbers of capital ships and carriers. The recent attrition of enemy subs should be a help. Timor is strongly held by the Allies - a place of safety that's nearby. Oz is filled to capacity with supply, fuel and reinforcements. It's nearing mid-44, and this is Scenario 2 with "normal" capital ships present, so the Allies aren't outclassed. This should be a good place and time to fight.

Knowing how vigorously to push forward without getting whacked by overextending is a balancing act that often doesn't balance. Here, helpful tidbits of information and a decent amount of experience gave me enough to work with, so that the front was extended, creating problems for Japan. The opportunities weren't frittered away through excessive timidity.

[Canoerebel]

4/17/44

Celebes: DS & The Herd move ENE, towards Namlea. ASW nibbles against more subs. As for getting a bead on enemy intentions, Dave is working hard. His focus is on Watampone (with the exception of his subs, which are vectored against DS and, I think, Koepang).

DS & The Herd, from their current position, will send fast transports to land detachments at Taberfane and an enemy dot hex. Even while that happens, DS & The Herd will retire WSW, to a point near where it started yesterday. Partly this is to keep Dave off-balance (it is hoped), partly to set up opportunities to land at Kolaka to move on Kendari (only if things somehow go well, beyond expectations), partly to offer proximity to Watampone, and partly to give me another day to gauge Dave's plan - which I think will be to counterland at or near Watampone.

[Canoerebel]

4/19/44

Celebes: A quick post. The graphic shows the tremendous number of enemy subs flooding the area.

The turn opened with an unusually long series of sub/ASW interactions. Subs fired on destroyers, DEs, APDs, but not on any of the big boys. Partly that's because DS & The Herd took station in one of the few hexes where the subs weren't concentrated. A USN sub sank a I-boat near Watampone, and ASW sank another near Kendari.

It's important to keep ASW cycling in and out of Lautum to replenish ammo.

The APDs landed their detachments at Taberfane and the dot hex.

More late this afternoon.

[BBfanboy]

I can't take the credit for calling that cluster for single/2 ship TFs subs - that was Ranger Joe. I thought it unlikely that your nav search would pick up so many subs so I was suggesting maybe small ships like AMcs and small PBs to use up your ammo and sorties before an intercept attempt by his surface forces. Looks like I need to study the recognition manual again! [:'(]

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

I can't take the credit for calling that cluster for single/2 ship TFs subs - that was Ranger Joe. I thought it unlikely that your nav search would pick up so many subs so I was suggesting maybe small ships like AMcs and small PBs to use up your ammo and sorties before an intercept attempt by his surface forces. Looks like I need to study the recognition manual again! [:'(]

Apparently you are/were not a Scout. Observe and report is what a Scout does. "Sargent, there is a pretty blonde over there." "There is a pretty blonde and a brunette over there." "Oh, you want coffee, hop in your jeep and follow me!" To the bakery we went. [:D]

[Lovejoy]

Looking forward to seeing how your plan unfolds. DEI campaigns are like knife fights: close quarters and bloody. I think you're in a pretty solid position. You've got interlocking bases that you can stuff with fighters to boost DS CAP, and he's gonna be forcing his subs into pretty confined waters with your ASW TFs. Once your new bases are built up, heavy bombers should make basing ships at Soerabaja dangerous for him or force him to bring in more fighter squadrons that are needed elsewhere.

Good luck!

[Canoerebel]

Thanks for setting the record straight, BBfanboy. Kudos to Ranger Joe, as I think he nabbed the id of that weird group of TFs.

[Canoerebel]

Did you know there are intercollegiate forestry and wildlife competitions? Schools from Texas to Virginia, Kentucky to Florida, compete each year. The events range from highly academic to the purely physical. Natural history of the vertebrates (identifying critters by a single bone or feather, for instance), wood technology (identifying a species of tree from a transparent slice of wood), log burling (staying upright on a log in water), archery, ax-throwing, tree felling, chain throwing, compass & pacing, and on and on.

In 1983, Conclave was held in the Ocala National Forest. The University of Florida was the host school. I competed in two events: wood technology and estimating tree diameter.

In diameter estimating, I placed second (to a dude from Clemson, of all things). My method was to begin by mentally positing a diameter clearly far too big, and another far too small. Then I'd work "in" from both margins. So, for instance, if we were positioned ten feet from a massive loblolly pine, I'd take a look and ponder. Clearly it was much bigger than 10 inches but notably smaller than 30 inches. That helped me get a feel for things, and I would go from there.

Today I spent about six hours mulling over "what's next." On the low side was, "Do nothing." On the high side was, "Invade Java!" I'm not comfortable, at this moment under these circumstances, with either. I fiddled with different ideas and positions, none with major ramifications (from my perspective) for tomorrow but trying for something that presented possibilities for the day after. I never came up with "just the right fit," but the eventual orders continue mostly to aim at two goals: (1) offensive and defense against enemy subs, and (2) getting a better feel for what Dave is thinking and what he might be capable of.

DS & The Herd are good on ammo but will probably need to refuel at Koepang in three or four days.

[T Rav]

I learned Ax throwing at my son's Boy Scout event. It needed an 8-hex (12 Feet) range, or you just end up losing your Ax.

T-Rav

[Canoerebel]

I don't know if I ever tried ax throwing. Like everything else, there's considerably more skill and strategy involved than an observer might think.