Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice)

[Canoerebel]

4/20/44

Celebes: DS & The Herd remain stationary, allowing ASW to work and sending an APD TF to land an infantry detachment at vacant Kolaka.

What's next? The Allies have a tremendous army 100% prepped for Java and vicinity bases. Originally, this was to be an "out-of the blue" strike timed to take place when KB was far away. But events have brought the Allies to the very doorstep. The problem is that there's no element of surprise, and I'm not going to take on KB plus Soerabaja (level 9 airfield) until the Allies have a reasonable sense of local supremacy. Without surprise, it'll take awhile to reach that point (by defeating major elements of the IJN and/or by building up the dot hexes now in Allied hands).

There are slightly better prospects for moves on Makassar or Kendari. My guys have the key landing bases (Watampone and Kolako). However, either op needs a fair amount of time to not only land troops but also to off-load supply. DS is currently positioned for either or both moves, but they are dependent on getting a better feel for KBs location and composition over the next few days.

Diverting to land in strength at Ternate is a possibility. The worry there is that nearby Sorong is a level 8 airfield that would be an issue in combination with KB.

All of these notions are operational and tactical planning. They are important, but its even more important to keep in mind the umbrella strategy: "Its the points, stupid!"

While in this state of flux, attending to DS & Herd fueling needs, and damaging or sinking enemy subs are worthwhile activities.

[Canoerebel]

4/21/44

Superforts: First raids of the year have wildly different results. Nighttime raid on Soerabaja whiffs completely. Daytime raid on Hong Kong scores all kinds of hits on enemy ships. Enemy shipping targeted? Tactical use of a strategic weapon? Yup. A score vs. enemy combat vessels at Soerabaja might've had an affect on the outcome of the critical battle forthcoming, and both raids (should) lead Dave to re-evaluate threats to key inner bases, spreading out his CAP some. So sorta a strategic use.

Celebes: No sign of KB or combat TFs. Two more enemy subs sunk. DS refueling. Dave isn't showing signs of reinforcing landings in the hot zones. I may try to force the issue in a couple of turns.

[RangerJoe]

Trying to get all of those dot bases is like stomping on cockroaches.

[Canoerebel]

Yup. A fair number of them auto-flip, so it's not a big deal. But I like to target enemy dot hexes, if nothing more than to create the appearance of Allied momentum and the walls "closing in."

[Gridley380]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Yup. A fair number of them auto-flip, so it's not a big deal. But I like to target enemy dot hexes, if nothing more than to create the appearance of Allied momentum and the walls "closing in."

Yeah, it is fun to see the map fill up with your flags.

[Canoerebel]

In my game with John III, I think the Allies were invading Luzon by April 1944. That was a different game altogether: John pushing hard in lots of places, an Allied army getting extinguished on Sumatra, John losing a big Mini KB near the Marshalls, big naval battles off Assam's coast, and much more. The Allies drew even in the score August 1, 1944, at roughly 56k each (I'm going from distant memory). That was a fun grudge match, and the Allies did pretty well to achieve 2x auto-victory on May 11, 1945, especially considering it was a John III mod with Japan getting a bunch of extra carriers.

In this game, the fighting has been less fierce, though not tame. Here the Allies are behind 29.9k to 27.3k. Barring catastrophe (and catastrophe is very much in the picture, for either side), the score should be knotted-up perhaps in May, about three months ahead of the John III game. And, barring the unexpected, I think the Allies can achieve AV considerably sooner than May 1945.

The difference is, as noted previously, the denominator (Japanese points). It's even possible that strategic bombing won't be necessary to achieve AV, or if so only to a modest extent. Points for bases, ground units, ships, and the air war may be sufficient to fully fund victory.

All that terrific fighting I did in my game vs. John III (and ditto vs. Erik) to get into position to engage in strategic bombing may be counterproductive to AV (but not to having fun). A lot of that fighting tends to be on a 1:1 or thereabouts ratio. Keep that up long enough, and the denominator climbs to 60k or 80k, making strat bombing essential to AV.

This is not necessarily under the Allied player's control. In this game, Dave sorta did a Sir Robin defense, which kept scoring low. The game may favor the aggressive Jap player - the one who keeps the pressure up, seeking or forcing 1:1 fights that push the denominator up and up and up.

[Canoerebel]

On a side note, two turns back I paid 120 points (about 10% of what I have available) to switch Darwin from American to Australian. I have a bunch of permanent-restricted Aussie fighters that I wanted forward, defending the key base and freeing up some Darwin fighters to move to Koepang, which is the front line.

I don't have enough fighters stationed in Oz/Timor/New Guinea and vicinity. I have too many back at Pearl, West Coast, and Ceylon, engaged in training or devoted to possible offensive ideas that have been mostly scrubbed. Steps are being taken to remedy the shortage, but it'll take awhile.

[Canoerebel]

4/23/44

Celebes: It was an uneventful day at sea and on land, but an unsatisfactory air battle over Watampone led me to reconsider the situation. This led to a revised plan. Until I get some of these new bases built up, the Allies will have to rely on speed, agility, and unpredictability to maintain order in the Banda/Java seas.

Far away, I now have two new Mini Ds - one at Ceylon and one at Pearl. They're not quite strong enough, yet, to take on major risks, but the time isn't too far off in which it'll be feasible to move independently of ops in the DEI.

[Canoerebel]

4/24/44

Celebes: DS & The Herd will be transiting dangerous waters during the nighttime and early morning hours, on the way to Bima. The turn opens with ASW skirmishing.

[Canoerebel]

4/24/44

Celebes: As the turn begins to develop, there are a bunch of ASW reactions to enemy subs. It seems apparent that Dave's plan is to cordon off the mouth of the bay into with DS & The Herd have ventured.

And he deploys MTBs from Kendari, too (my PT boats failed to deal with these a few turns back).

[Canoerebel]

4/24/44

Celebes: Two hexes into the six-hex journey, DS & The Herd begin dealing with the sub cordon.

[Canoerebel]

4/24/44

Celebes

[Canoerebel]

4/24/44

Celebes

[Canoerebel]

4/24/44

Celebes: So many subs.

Over on the right flank, a USN DD TF reacted to the MTBs, following them to Kendari. I hope daylight doesn't find them there. If it does, I hope Dave doesn't have strike aircraft set to go.

[Canoerebel]

4/24/44

Balikpapan: The first Superfort industry mission is successful.

Over on the fight flank, Liberators from Darwin destroyed a couple of aircraft on the ground at Kendari.

[Canoerebel]

4/24/44

Celebes: Clear this area before the sun comes up, boys!

(DD Hale, which took an MTB TT early in the turn, doesn't look too bad off.)

[Canoerebel]

4/24/44

Celebes: Third attack of the night on I-21. She's in trouble.

[Canoerebel]

4/24/44

Celebes

[Canoerebel]

4/24/44

Celebes: The sun comes up and the battles continue. This skirmish takes place in the hex that is supposed to be DS & The Herd's destination for the day. I don't think they've arrived, yet. I hope they do. And I hope KB doesn't pop down from the north to find them lagging.

[Canoerebel]

4/24/44

Celebes: Ah, it looks like DS & The Herd have arrived.