Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice)

[T Rav]

Do you have a rough comparison of sub losses so far? Seems like lots on IJ side, but not sure on Allied.

[Canoerebel]

I don't have the game open at the moment, so I'll give definitive numbers later.

THe Allies have lost eight subs in the past three weeks. Before that, losses were occasional. All told, perhaps 30-40 have been lost to date.

Dave has committed three or four big waves of subs since the Allies arrived at Milne Bay some months back. Each time, he's suffered heavy losses. I think he's lost between 70 and 90 subs to date - probably 10-20 in the past week.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Seeing that DD force that is out of ammo heading toward Sorong instead of Babeldaob suggests that Sorong has AKEs or ADs. Time to switch some of those airfield suppression HBs to a port strike at Sorong! [:)]

You may be right. Recon reports an AKE there, so some 2EB will target the port tomorrow.

[Canoerebel]

6/21/44

Battle of Ternate: This is the fifth enemy sub torpedoed by a USN sub in the past six weeks or so.

[Canoerebel]

6/21/44

Battle of Ternate: I think this was the biggest swarm of subs committed by Dave yet. He's lost a bunch and many others are damaged, including some already in this turn that I chose not to copy and paste. It looks like a large contingent of his subs are closing on Ternate, a fair number are working on DS, and some are down near Boela, guarding the direct route home.

During this turn, his subs will pick off two or three LSTs and and LCI. All were empty, having delivered supply or troops to Ternate. Like the DEs lost a few turns back, these are very useful ships. But this is the perfect environment to use them in.

[Canoerebel]

6/29/44

Battle of Ternate: Dave commits a bunch of subs against the troop transports at Ternate, but they blunder into a newly sowed minefield. Among other damage, this weakens the subs, making them susceptible to further ASW efforts.

This field was newly sowed by one sub and the two DMs that ran into enemy combat TFs a few turns back. That TF did good work.

[BBfanboy]

Your ASW ships must have incredibly high crew experience levels after all this action. That does not bode well for Japanese subs. [:)]

[Canoerebel]

6/21/44

Battle of Ternate: A mine victim is finished off.

[Canoerebel]

6/21/44

Battle of Ternate: The last major ASW clash this noisy day.

[CaptBeefheart]

I like that: Two LSTs taking out a sub on the surface. Keep up the good work.

Cheers,
CB

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

I like that: Two LSTs taking out a sub on the surface. Keep up the good work.

Cheers,
CB

I don't trust the "sub slips beneath the waves" epitaph unless it is followed by sinking sounds immediately.
What's the biggest gun on an LST? 40mm? But we don't know if a lot of those hits are 50 cal MG hits or even 20mm.
And RO-41 took two mine hits + 23 other hits to sink, while the I-29 only took one mine plus 18 from the LSTs.
But I hope you're right about it sinking.

[Canoerebel]

My analysis of sub damage is somewhat odd. I don't turn up sound at work, so I don't have access to the audible "breaking up" confirmation. On the other hand, when my own subs take "heavy damage" during a turn, they almost always immediately sink.

By the way, BBfanboy, the port raid sank a damaged sub and scored "heavy fires/heavy damage" on two ADs and an AV. Your comment led directly to that raid.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

My analysis of sub damage is somewhat odd. I don't turn up sound at work, so I don't have access to the audible "breaking up" confirmation. On the other hand, when my own subs take "heavy damage" during a turn, they almost always immediately sink.

By the way, BBfanboy, the port raid sank a damaged sub and scored "heavy fires/heavy damage" on two ADs and an AV. Your comment led directly to that raid.

Thanks for the feedback. I sort of imagined all the stuff you have to deal with while setting up the next turn and thought the two DDs out of ammo heading to Sorong might not be noticed so I threw it out there.

I hope your success means those DDs are still out of ammo, and forces the Japanese to pull back their other support ships in range of your HBs. Or spread out their CAP to cover those bases more heavily.

[Canoerebel]

He did withdraw his carriers and combat ships a week ago, as DS approached, partly (no doubt) because many of his combat TFs had expended ammo. He needed to replenish.

But we've played a week's worth of turns since then, so they've had time to replenish at Davao or whatever his new port of call is.

I didn't originally think the retirement of that TF towards Sorong meant anything, because it was out of ammo and kept reacting away from one of my surface combat TFs. IE, I thought it was just a random retreat. And it might've been. But it tipped you off to an idea that tipped me off to an idea.

[BBfanboy]

Your well-annotated maps made it easy to come up with ideas. Kudos on providing us such entertaining and informative material. Makes it very easy to follow the situation.
Luck in the days ahead!

[Canoerebel]

6/22/44

Battle of Ternate: Things are going well but KB suddenly pops up on the northwestern periphery.

The mission to reinforce and supply Ternate is basically complete. It was that mission - Ternate's paramount importance - that prompted me to sortie DS in the first place - into hostile, confined waters against a sizeable enemy carrier force. Since that motivation no longer exists, and since additional carriers are inbound in the short term (several triage carriers are nearly ready, plus six CVEs reinforcements are not far away), better to retire. In two or three weeks, DS will be much larger than it is today. If KB remains the same size, DS will then have a decided size advantage.

So DS given orders to pull back towards Boela, along with most of the shipping at Ternate.

But the mission may not be done yet. Depending on what Dave does next, the invasion of Namlea and the reinforcing invasion of Ambon are still on the table.

[jwolf]

The decision to retire certainly makes sense to me. I suppose you should beware of a possible sprint attack from Dave as he has done that before.

[Canoerebel]

Yes, that's a possibility. It's okay if he does, for DS's CAP will be bolstered by some good LBA fighters at Boela.

But I don't think he'll come too far forward. He'll be leery of the Allied subs around Ternate and the threat posed by Allied airfields (that's minimal but it's human nature to play it up). That's my guess, based on how I've seen him handle things.

[Canoerebel]

P.S. I also sent two USN TFs forward about four hexes from Ternate, set to retire back to Boela - just in case the enemy does move boldly towards the base.

[Gridley380]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Your well-annotated maps made it easy to come up with ideas. Kudos on providing us such entertaining and informative material. Makes it very easy to follow the situation.
Luck in the days ahead!

Indeed! I also appreciate the time you're putting into this AAR.