Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice)

[Canoerebel]

I think (*think*) Japanese naval air pilot losses have been much higher than Allied. The Allies have engaged in a couple of costly offensive raids but only about half as many as Japan. Most of the fighting has occurred over the Allied fleet, where (presumably) ships would rescue a fair number of pilots. My pools of aircraft and pilots look good.

So, at the moment, I think the Allies can resume an offensive posture. DS will retire briefly to port to bring all squadrons up to full strength and to await the arrival of the new/repaired carriers. Then the fleets will move out.

This is one of those times when defense is a higher priority than offense. It's much more likely that the Allies will undergo large-scale attacks (from LBA primarily but possibly also KB), while the chances of KB coming into range is relatively slight. So DS will retain the fighter-heavy orientation, with the strike aircraft concentrating on search and ASW missions.

Edited to add this: P.S. The Japanese navy and air force remains potent. Dave, with his network of interlocking bases and the ability to spring KB and combat TFs forward will remain dangerous for a long time to come.

[Canoerebel]

6/26/44 to 6/30/44

DEI: KB retired (probably towards Manila). DS remained near Namlea for two more turns, then made for port to replenish. It looks like the Allies will take Namlea in a few days. Ternate and Ambon are stable. The Allies are looking further. Recent SigInt reports a mixed brigade inbound to Manado, which is a sensible deployment. Longer-term SigInt has shown a focus on the Philippines, too. Dave seems oriented towards a northeastward move by the Allies, which probably is consistent with what he most fears and where he feels the most vulnerable. But the Allies will continue the original vector, with Soerabaja and eventually Singapore the major targets.

New Guinea: While all that was going on, an Aussie brigade landed at weakly-held Hollandia. It should fall in a few days.

Marcus: Patrols picked up an enemy TF moving SE from the Volcano Islands region. Possibly a move on Marcus. Defenses there are okay - about 60 AV behind three forts but with a heckuva lot of CD guns.

[Canoerebel]

7/1/44

DEI: SigInt confirms BB Nagato sunk at Singapore during that surprise nighttime B-29 raid from Waingapoe.

No sign of KB.

Allied bombers continue to suppress enemy airfields from Kendari to Sorong.

DS disbanded, refuels (except for CVEs), replenishes ammo/sorties, and tops off aircraft and pilots. All carrier aircraft shut down for maintenance for a few days.

The reinforcing carriers will arrive at Darwin tomorrow.

[Canoerebel]

7/2/44

DEI: Recent SigInt confirms CL Natori and Kiso sunk during battles a month or more back, south of Soerabaja, plus a mixed brigade bound for Babeldaob. That adds to the impression that Dave is focused on the territory between the DEI and Formosa.

Hollandia and Namlea fall to the Allies. Dave was using Namlea's airfield to support Ambon, and the base is an important pick up on the northern periphery, to support future ops.

Reinforcing carriers arrive at Darwin. A few swap out FM-2s for Hellcats. All will depart Darwin tonight.

No sign of KB. Dave doesn't have (and hasn't had) any detection on DS since before it departed the Ambon area nearly a week ago. Anti intellectus ex nihilo.

[Canoerebel]

A few thoughts on the eve of a major Allied operation:

House Rules: We don't have any. It's been a real pleasure not to deal with them. A real pleasure. Dave's made it easy because he's so easy-going. I can't think of a time he's pushed the envelope.

On my side, I've done things a lot differently in this game, to date. Allied carriers have always been somewhat dispersed, so that there hasn't been a true DS. Right now, for instance, there are 10 carriers at Ceylon (2 CVL, 8 CVE), 10 at Pearl (two CV, 8 CVL), 3 at Townsville (3 CV) and two at Sydney (a CV and a CVE). I started the game with that in mind, hoping to capitalize by being able to strike in more than one place; hoping to have more opportunities to strike. Perhaps as a result, I've lost more carriers in this game than I have in my games vs. John III and Obvert combined. But Japan had to (needed to?) react by also splitting its own carriers, which indeed created some opportunities.

There have long been grumblings about night bombing. While we don't have any HRs, I've kept nighttime raids under 50 aircraft, to this point. I'm about to bump that up to somewhere between 50-75, if enough find the target, which doesn't seem exorbitant given the late date. Night bombing has indeed been effective, partly because the Allies have been bombing isolated bases without rail service to a nearby airfield. That seriously impacts the ability to use magical rail rehabilitation of fatigued bombers.

I haven't used merchantmen as picket ships. There are enough YMS, SC, AM and the occasional DD to handle this duty - at least against Dave, who hasn't been real aggressive behind my lines.

I'm so accustomed to playing John III and Obvert, facing multitudinous advanced frames and elite pilots, that the recent IJ carrier strike caught me by surprise - all Zero 5c models as escort. No Georges or Franks or Randys or Hornets.

From time to time, DS has been configured mainly for defense, stripped of most strike aircraft and heavy on fighters. This has allowed Dave to make a number of attacks that didn't expose KB to counterattacks. He's gotten in some licks but has lost a ton of aircraft. He used the same strategy at least once (near Ternate, not long ago).

Years ago I played Chez-da-Jez, who was interested in a historical match and wasn't prepared for a non-linear, hyper game. He just didn't enjoy it. I hope that's not happening with this game. Dave isn't a mod-freak nor is he an envelope pusher. I've become accustomed to playing pretty radically to counter John III mods and Obvert non-linear tactics, and I'm inclined that way anyhow. To me, this game has been a blast and has meandered along without controversy. I hope Dave feels that same way.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

There have long been grumblings about night bombing. While we don't have any HRs, I've kept nighttime raids under 50 aircraft, to this point. I'm about to bump that up to somewhere between 50-75, if enough find the target, which doesn't seem exorbitant given the late date. Night bombing has indeed been effective, partly because the Allies have been bombing isolated bases without rail service to a nearby airfield. That seriously impacts the ability to use magical rail rehabilitation of fatigued bombers.

It's tough because we're playing a game that the devs did so well to balance, but admitted that certain aspects simply didn't get done in time for release. Or at all, even after so many years of brilliant support (michaelm THANK YOU!!).

Devs that play, or have played WITP AE themselves have stated multiple times that they themselves use HRs. They're not for everyone, and I don't advocate many as you know, but I do believe that to mitigate some unsolved problems just a couple are useful. (In our game the majority of HRs were suggested by the Allied player, a trained historian who couldn't stomach really unrealistic outcomes like China falling completely to the Japanese, Allied bombing there against Strat targets, or night bombing airfields/ports with high success rates that were unattainable with period equipment).

I agreed with Historiker about night bombing and was willing to go along with other suggestions as they seemed about balance. This is what of course makes a game able to get into the late stages, when both players feel they still have some ability to control outcomes.

Night bombing isn't a win-all proposition, but in the early stages especially, it can skew outcomes to the point where forward air defense is untenable. While the Japanese in the war had other difficulties defending airfields (and supplying and re-stocking airfields), they didn't have to worry about night bombing so much. This is why the NF groups don't exist in the early going in game, and why there are no dedicated NF until sometime in 43.

I'm so accustomed to playing John III and Obvert, facing multitudinous advanced frames and elite pilots, that the recent IJ carrier strike caught me by surprise - all Zero 5c models as escort. No Georges or Franks or Randys or Hornets.

This is the best escort before the A6M8 and Sam. The 5c does a great job of taking hits and getting bombers through due to it's armour and heavy gun armament.

To me, this game has been a blast and has meandered along without controversy. I hope Dave feels that same way.

Maybe a good time to ask about the night bombing if there has been some grumbling. You're limiting it, but if you expand, will that create tension?

[Canoerebel]

House Rules always come packed with unintended consequences, so I prefer doing away with them and then working things out along the way.

This turn's raid that I thought might have more than 50 night bombers ended up having 30, due to so many aircraft losing their way in the darkness. So still well within the typical limit.

But those 30 destroyed around 130 enemy aircraft on the ground at Soerabaja. That's okay, as Dave has the airfield packed with hundreds of aircraft that would participate in coordinated strikes with Georges and Randys as escorts. Hellcats stand no chance against them, so I need a fair way to reduce the threat before KB arrives. The balance feels about right.

[Canoerebel]

7/3/44 to 7/6/44

DEI: With some trepidation, DS & The Herd departed Koepang, bound for Java. The prospect of possibly facing both KB and Soerabaja's level 9 airfield was intimidating. More so as the armada neared the half way point and the enormity of the undertaking came into focus.

B-29s targeted Soerabaja airfield on the 6th and 7th, doing good work. ABout 200 aircraft destroyed on the ground. Still, some sortied, blew through Hellcat LRCAP, and sank a nice LST TF.

DS moved six hexes day one and slowed to three day two (thus exposing the LSTs, which moved further). That left it six hexes from Bandjowangi (sp?), a small and apparently vacant base on the southwestern (SE, true) extremity of Java. I ordered DS to move just three more hexes and figured I'd make the final call - a tough one it would be - the following day.

But on the 7th, long-range recon found KB sitting in Manila, well over 30 hexes from the beach. While Soerabaja is still open, it's pretty damaged. Without KB support, the threat is manageable. So the fleet is ordered to proceed to the beach.

That's where we'll leave things for a couple of days. My family and I are heading to Kentucky to say our farewells to a good man. He was a longtime pastor and an assistant quartermaster on a DE in SoPac during WWII. He was my stepfather. He passed away Friday, so we're heading to his funeral. I'll see y'all in a few days.

[USSAmerica]

My condolences on your loss, Dan.

[Lovejoy]

My condolences on your loss as well

[Bif1961]

Sounds like a great man and you are going to pay him the respect he deserved, besides the love and devotion you have already given him. As long as someone lives in our memories they are alive.

[Canoerebel]

7/7/44

Thanks, gents. It was a fine send-off for a good man.

D-Day Java: Allied landings take place without incident. The beachheads are undefended, the enemy navy doesn't sortie, and the modest enemy air strikes fail to score any hits and take pretty heavy casualties.

Most importantly, KB remains posted at Manila. Consequently, I don't have any reason to get a case of the yips, fearing things that might happen...because as long as KB is at least two or three days away, DS should be able to handle enemy LBA (Soerabaja field is 70% suppressed and Dave has lost 250 aircraft on the ground in three days). The Allies will keep landing, and will even move forward a bit, until Dave responds enough to force me to retire.

[Canoerebel]

7/8/44

DEI: Bases begin falling, KB remains at Manila so that I'm free to continue focusing on landings and build-up, and Dave sortied some combat TFs that got punished. More landings to come, unless and until the situation somehow appears dire. At this point, KB sortying down the Makassar Strait would be the thing to give me pause.

I thought of one thing that might make Dave's decision-making more complicated....

[Canoerebel]

7/8/44

Bay of Bengal: A large invasion force is approaching Port Blair. Dave just caught wind of them today. Will he react using KB? I don't think so, but we'll see.

I'm not yet sure this is the real thing or an elaborate decoy. The ground troops are strong enough to take the base but the carriers may not be nearly enough to handle the LBA threat. So I may dance around before retiring. As far as Dave will know it was just an elaborate hoax to (try to) draw attention away from Java.

[jwolf]

I am wondering why Dave is so uncharacteristically non-aggressive about defending Soerabaja. If he loses that, the whole oil and fuel production from the DEI is gone. So I would think he has to fight hard here, but KB is staying way back in Manila. I'm trying to think of some possible explanations: maybe something really sneaky is being set up (but what?); maybe KB was more badly damaged than I thought it was; or maybe a poorly timed refit?

[Canoerebel]

I think the problem is that KB air has taken heavy losses at least four times in the past two months. That and that fact that the Allies keep pulverizing his major airfields may have dissuaded him from contesting this region. As noted above, he's been focusing his reinforcements at Manado and in the Philippines (and, to a lesser extent, Batavia). It's second half of '44, so he might think that Java is a lost cause anyhow, thus preferring to defend areas he now deems more vital.

Those are all possibilities. There are others, including him sortying everything in the world over the next few days. So my views are malleable.

[SuluSea]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

7/3/44 to 7/6/44

My family and I are heading to Kentucky to say our farewells to a good man.
He was a longtime pastor and an assistant quartermaster on a DE in SoPac during WWII.
He was my stepfather. He passed away Friday, so we're heading to his funeral. I'll see y'all in a few days.

Very sorry for your loss Dan.

I'm reminded of something from Erwin Lutzer.

Let us never forget that He walks with us on this side of the curtain and then guides us through the opening.
We will meet Him there, because we have met Him here.”

Safe travels to you and yours.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks for the kind words, Sulu. I know Erwin Lutzer's messages well.

My stepfather was an assistant quartermaster on a DE in the Solomons during the war. Afterwards, he got married and had a number of jobs, including postal carrier. Around 1954, he went to seminary in Fort Worth (Southwestern). He became a pastor and served mostly in Florida for the rest of his life. He was the pastor of a church in Key West and then several in the Miami area. He was a great man of faith throughout his life. Rock steady, reliable, charitable, kind. He passed away at 96, to be welcome with "Well done...." You know the rest.

[T Rav]

CR,

That's why I check in everyday. That last post was wonderful. You're a good man.

Best Regards,
T Rav

[CaptBeefheart]

My sincere condolences, Dan. Sounds like a life very will lived.

Best regards,
CB