Did You Know I Used to Drive a Rollercoaster?: Apbarog(A) vs OPilot(J)

[apbarog]

Nothing spotted in the area to be concerned with. The concern is what isn't being spotted.

OPilot sent just the replay, which is very unusual. He had appointments and needs the rest of the day to finish the turn. I prefer to watch the replay and immediately do the turn. I'm a problem-solver, and each replay presents new problems to solve, so I like to get right to the turn.

But I watched the replay, and feared the worst.

My quote from yesterday was right on the mark. Enemy carriers north of Ambon, and a monumental battle ensued.

Details later.

[Bif1961]

TEASE!

[apbarog]

OPilot didn't finish his turn tonight, so all I had today was the replay.

Here's some a bit more to look forward to tomorrow:

Carrier reaction moves played a huge part in the outcome.
Weather affected naval strike hits also.
Hellcats are better than Wildcats.
OPilot said that his carriers were supposed to move south yesterday, but they did not. If they had, they probably would have been spotted near Ambon and the invasion would not have taken place.
The question is asked "What makes an invasion a success?"

So much to discuss...
Tomorrow, after I get the turn.
Same bat time, same bat channel.

[Wuffer]

It was obvious that he had to commit all he has. I think your consolidation phase was wise, but I was always impressed by the cunctator's strategy against Hannibal too.

[apbarog]

14 May 43

Pollack fired 4 torpedoes at TK Tsushima Maru in that shallow hex in the straits east of Samarinda. One torpedo hit. The tanker was carrying fuel and burned. Sinking audio heard soon afterwards.

Near Ternate, Pickerel spotted a carrier task force and fired 6 torpedoes at Zuikaku. Unfortunately, all missed. A missed opportunity that could have affected the outcome of the rest of the day. Saury spotted another task force in the same area, with battleships Kirishima and Haruna, but didn't get a shot.

The invasion of Ambon opened up with battleships Pennsylvania, Arizona and West Virginia hitting the base. 450 casualties, moderate airfield damage and light port damage. Troops then started unloading, using many APAs and LSTs. 3 US DMSs found mines and began sweeping them. There doesn't seem to be too many mines, but some still exist at the end of the day.

With daylight, enemy carriers are spotted north of Ambon. The air battle began. But not before the carrier task force with Wasp, Hermes and the CVEs reacted to the enemy carriers, moving one hex to the northwest. Since all carriers had their CAP set to range 1, fighter coverage was still provided to ships at Namlea and Ambon, as well as the now separated carrier task forces. I did have one squadron of fighters from the CVEs on LRCAP over Namlea, since the CVEs were supposed to be 2 hexes from Namlea. But all in all, the CAP coverage was not affected too badly by the one hex reaction move.

First, 18 Bettys with 16 Zeros attacked carriers. Almost all of the attackers were shot down by a CAP of 4 Sea Hurricanes, 4 Wildcats and 131 Hellcats.

Then a huge enemy strike appeared over the big carriers. The enemy escort was weak.

Morning Air attack on TF, near Ambon at 76,110

Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 20 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 23
B6N1 Jill x 36
B6N2 Jill x 16
D4Y1 Judy x 52
D4Y3 Judy x 18

Allied aircraft
Sea Hurricane Ib x 2
F4F-4 Wildcat x 4
F6F-3 Hellcat x 125

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zero: 11 destroyed
B6N1 Jill: 15 destroyed, 2 damaged
B6N1 Jill: 1 destroyed by flak
B6N2 Jill: 3 destroyed, 6 damaged
B6N2 Jill: 2 destroyed by flak
D4Y1 Judy: 17 destroyed, 10 damaged
D4Y1 Judy: 4 destroyed by flak
D4Y3 Judy: 6 destroyed, 1 damaged
D4Y3 Judy: 4 destroyed by flak

No Allied losses

Allied Ships
BB Indiana, Bomb hits 1
CV Hornet
CV Yorktown, Torpedo hits 1
CV Lexington
BB North Carolina, Bomb hits 1, Torpedo hits 1
CV Saratoga
BB Washington, Torpedo hits 1
CL St. Louis

13 Lilys then went after shipping at Ambon, and ran into just 10 Hellcats. Every Lily was shot down.

The Allies then put together a huge strike package and went after the enemy carriers.

Morning Air attack on TF, near Mangole at 75,105

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 79 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 31 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 72
A6M5b Zero x 23

Allied aircraft
SBD-3 Dauntless x 107
TBF-1 Avenger x 54

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
SBD-3 Dauntless: 60 destroyed, 15 damaged
SBD-3 Dauntless: 2 destroyed by flak
TBF-1 Avenger: 22 destroyed, 2 damaged

Japanese Ships
CV Akagi
BB Haruna
CVL Zuiho
CV Hiryu
CV Zuikaku
CV Shokaku

Terrible, terrible, terrible! No escorts! With the Wasp and CVEs moving away from the big carrier TFs, the big carrier bombers flew off with no escorts. I had most of the escort fighters to come from the Wasp TF, and with that TF in another hex, the escorts didn't join the strike package. Terrible! It was so painful to watch, losing so many planes in this way. And no hits on the carriers.

Maybe it's better to plan a separate strike package from each carrier TF, with its own bombers and fighters. This will be easier to accomplish when move carriers can comfortably work in the same TF.

Heavy bombers then hit enemy troops on Ambon.

Then another enemy carrier strike, this time on the Wasp TF.

Morning Air attack on TF, near Ambon at 75,109

Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 20 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 27
A6M5b Zero x 23
B6N1 Jill x 32
D4Y1 Judy x 63

Allied aircraft
Sea Hurricane Ib x 8
F4F-4 Wildcat x 60
F6F-3 Hellcat x 27

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zero: 4 destroyed
A6M5b Zero: 2 destroyed
B6N1 Jill: 2 destroyed, 7 damaged
B6N1 Jill: 3 destroyed by flak
D4Y1 Judy: 3 destroyed, 9 damaged
D4Y1 Judy: 7 destroyed by flak

Allied aircraft losses
F4F-4 Wildcat: 3 destroyed

Allied Ships
CV Wasp, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires
CVE Copahee, Bomb hits 1, Torpedo hits 1, on fire
CVE Prince William, Torpedo hits 4, and is sunk
CVE Nassau, Bomb hits 1, on fire
CVE Altamaha, Bomb hits 2, on fire
CVE Suwannee, Torpedo hits 5, and is sunk
CVL Hermes
CL Santa Fe
BB Prince of Wales, Bomb hits 3
DD Grayson
CA Australia

US carriers then tried to strike back.

Morning Air attack on TF, near Mangole at 75,105

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 78 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 36 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 33
A6M5b Zero x 15

Allied aircraft
F4F-4 Wildcat x 39
SBD-3 Dauntless x 28
TBF-1 Avenger x 36

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
F4F-4 Wildcat: 3 destroyed
SBD-3 Dauntless: 4 destroyed, 3 damaged
SBD-3 Dauntless: 1 destroyed by flak
TBF-1 Avenger: 2 destroyed, 9 damaged

Japanese Ships
BB Haruna
CVL Zuiho, Bomb hits 1
CV Zuikaku
CA Kinugasa
CV Amagi
CV Hiryu
BB Hiei
CV Unryu

At least some fighters provided escort. Just one hit.

9 Jills then attacked all alone, running into about 80 fighters. All Jills were downed. Then 7 Jills arrived, with all shot down.

In the afternoon, the enemy launched from Sorong.

Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Ambon at 75,109

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 28 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M3a Zero x 44
G4M1 Betty x 9

Allied aircraft
Sea Hurricane Ib x 17
F4F-4 Wildcat x 2
F6F-3 Hellcat x 68

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M3a Zero: 11 destroyed
G4M1 Betty: 5 destroyed, 1 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
Sea Hurricane Ib: 1 destroyed
F6F-3 Hellcat: 1 destroyed

Allied Ships
CVE Nassau, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage

All the luck is with the enemy today. All of the Bettys except one was shot down. It got through and hit Nassau critically.

2 SBDs and 14 TBFs with 26 Wildcats tried to get to the enemy carriers, but ran into almost 100 Zeros. Few US planes survived.

Another enemy strike.

Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Ambon at 75,109

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 20 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 25
A6M5b Zero x 21
B6N1 Jill x 20
B6N2 Jill x 2
D4Y1 Judy x 53

Allied aircraft
Sea Hurricane Ib x 14
F4F-4 Wildcat x 2
F6F-3 Hellcat x 58

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zero: 3 destroyed
A6M5b Zero: 2 destroyed
B6N1 Jill: 6 destroyed, 4 damaged
B6N2 Jill: 1 destroyed
B6N2 Jill: 1 destroyed by flak
D4Y1 Judy: 6 destroyed, 20 damaged
D4Y1 Judy: 5 destroyed by flak

Allied aircraft losses
F4F-4 Wildcat: 1 destroyed

Allied Ships
CVL Hermes, Bomb hits 1, on fire
CVE Sangamon
CA Australia
CA New Orleans
CVE Nassau, on fire, heavy damage
BB Prince of Wales
CVE Altamaha
CA Canberra

Bad weather probably saved the ships. Many enemy bombers got through.

2 SBDs and 10 TBFs attacked and all were lost against 86 Zeros.

Another smaller enemy attack. Almost no CAP left.

Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Ambon at 76,110

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 20 minutes

Japanese aircraft
B6N2 Jill x 2
D4Y1 Judy x 22

Allied aircraft
F6F-3 Hellcat x 4

Japanese aircraft losses
B6N2 Jill: 1 destroyed, 1 damaged
D4Y1 Judy: 4 destroyed, 2 damaged
D4Y1 Judy: 3 destroyed by flak

No Allied losses

Allied Ships
CV Hornet, Bomb hits 1, on fire
CV Yorktown

And finally 2 SBDs were lost in a hopeless attack against 77 Zeros.

It was a bloodbath in the air, for both sides.

Air losses:

118 SBDs
96 TBFs
30 F4Fs

129 Judys
101 Jills
24 Bettys
21 A6M3a Zeros
18 A6M5 Zeros
14 Lilys
11 A6M5b Zeros

Heavy bomber losses for both sides. Some of the enemy fighters were land based. Carrier fighter losses for both sides were not heavy. About 30 enemy planes downed by flak.

LCDR P.H. Ramsey from Yorktown's VF-2 squadron got 6 kills, becoming an ace and a double ace on the same mission, giving him 10 kills total. 6 other pilots became aces, 2 of which were aces in a day. Lots of planes diverted to other carriers and to land bases in the area.

My current aircraft pools are as follows, with the monthly production in parentheses:

F4F-4 152 (+0)
SBD-3 24 (+0)
TBF-1 184 (+35)
F6F-3 22 (+130)
SBD-5 43 (+88)
SB2C-1C 25 (+45)

The Wildcat losses can be replaced immediately. Excellent Hellcat production will mean Wildcats will continue to get replaced with Hellcats. The problem is with the dive bombers. SBD-5 production just started this month. It will take awhile to replace today's losses. There are plenty of TBFs available. I am going to find out today how effective my bomber pilot training has been. I've continued to do it, but haven't tracked how many trained pilots are in the reserves. I'll be finding out now, won't I? [EDIT: 82 Allied pilots KIA today]

Now for the ship damage.

2 CVEs sunk: Suwanee and Prince William
Yorktown SYS 6, FLOT 9/4, ENG 0, FIRE 0
Hornet SYS 27, FLOT 12/5, ENG 6, FIRE 1
Wasp SYS 43, FLOT 25/10, ENG 15/6, FIRE 3
Hermes SYS 7, FLOT 1/0, ENG 1/0, FIRE 0
CVE Chenango SYS 29, FLOT 55, ENG 17/12, FIRE 0
CVE Nassau SYS 22, FLOT 68/47, ENG 4, FIRE 0
CVE Altimaha SYS 23, FLOT 8/1, ENG 3, FIRE 0
CVE Copahee SYS 18, FLOT 49/40, ENG 11/4, FIRE 0
BB North Carolina SYS 1, FLOT 3/0, ENG 0, FIRE 0
BB Washington SYS 7, FLOT 31/26, ENG 26/25, FIRE 0

All of the invading troops have landed at Namlea and Ambon. Namlea had no defenders, so it will be taken. Ambon's defense is relatively weak.

Ground combat at Ambon (76,109)

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 2724 troops, 14 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 119

Defending force 19599 troops, 321 guns, 290 vehicles, Assault Value = 504

Japanese ground losses:
42 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Assaulting units:
I./4th Infantry Battalion
III./4th Infantry Battalion
60th JNAF AF Unit
24th Special Base Force
29th Fld AA Gun Co
25th JAAF AF Bn

Defending units:
2nd Marine Division
3rd USMC Tank Battalion
16th Base Maint Engineer Battalion
23rd USN Special Construction Battalion
223rd Field Artillery Battalion
1/532nd Boat&Shore Engineer Battalion
53rd Aus Lt AA Regiment
1st USMC Field Artillery Battalion
9th Marine Defense Battalion
24th USN Special Construction Battalion

Ambon will be conquered quickly. The only question is whether to attack immediately or not. I'd expect an enemy naval bombardment today, considering the overall situation, and that OPilot will think that I'll attack today. Maybe I should wait a day. I'll think it over.

Now what to do with the shipping. All shipping will leave Namlea and Ambon. All ships will retire towards safety. I haven't decided yet exactly where that will be. It will be different per task force. The big question is whether or not it is worth keeping the big, relatively undamaged carriers with the damaged CVEs to protect them. And which CVEs. Nassau is probably not worth escorting, as it can only move 2 hexes a day. The other bunch of 3 damaged CVEs can move 4 hexes in a day. They may be worth risking the big carriers for. I'm undecided right now and will decide later today.

What will the enemy do? It has options. Retreat due to heavy bomber losses. Or replace bombers and move aggressively south. Or something in between. My understanding of my opponent is that he will take his victory and pull back to fill out his air units. But we could be entering a new phase where he aggressively counters my landings, like he did here. He could press a perceived advantage. The Allied air performed poorly from an offensive standpoint. He could roll the dice and hope for a bigger haul.

Definitely a Japanese win. I've lost 2 CVEs. If I lose 4 more, but don't lose Wasp or any big carriers, it isn't the end of the world. But the 2nd Marines are on Ambon and will take the base. Ambon will become the enemy's focus for awhile, while I wait for troop preparations to finish for the advance from Timor northwest to Java. An advance that could be made with a big jump to Denpassar with carriers, or a step by step approach on islands from Timor to Java without carriers.

It was a fun turn to watch, despite the punch in the gut feeling of watching 160 bombers fly off without any escorts. There are just a handful of turns like this one in a typical game, and you just don't know what twists and turns it will have.

[BBfanboy]

He suffered pretty heavily in carrier aircraft losses too, plus a lot of LBA lost. Too bad your fast BBs took torps - it would have been interesting to surge a few SCTFs at KB.

I say your fighter strength still looks like it can largely protect your ships so keep them together and covered as you withdraw to replenish aircraft and send cripples for some TLC. He will not know how much you will move so he will have trouble setting up an eight (or is it nine?) hex strike. KB without its aircraft is a toothless, declawed tiger.

[apbarog]

We both lost a lot of carrier bombers, but are fine with carrier fighters. I decided to go defensive. The only SBDs I had left was a squadron of 36 that was on ASW patrol. No point in trying to configure an offensive naval strike with so few aircraft. I want the fighters to protect what I have and get the ships back to safety.

[CaptBeefheart]

I'd defend your cripples with the CVs except maybe the 2-hex CVE. With those big aircraft losses he'd be lucky to get any hits. I'd also have a very stout surface TF, or TFs, with a low number in the same hex as the bulk of your forces to provide security in case he sends surface units your way. You might also consider sending one or two small DD TFs in harm's way to trip things up.

Hindsight is 20/20, but from what I understand CVE TFs don't react ever. Mixing the Wasp and Hermes into that TF (making it a CV TF, not CVE TF) probably didn't help things. Another benefit of CVE TFs is that they get full CAP in base hexes.

Anyway, at the end of the day, it wasn't too bad of a result. You'll just have to slow things down a but and rely on LBA for a while until you get your ships repaired. For May 1943 you are in a great position.

Cheers,
CB

[apbarog]

That's exactly what I did, CaptBeefheart. I'm defending the cripples except the 2-hex CVE. I have multiple surface TFs protecting. One is heavy in cruisers, one is lots of Fletcher destroyers, another is an ANZAC group of CLs and DDs. I'm not using the low number trick though. I do have the combat TFs patrolling though, so if something arrives, they should intercept.

Actually, the task force with Wasp, Hermes and all the CVEs was the task force that did react. The big carrier task forces did not.

[apbarog]

15 May 43

Little activity today.

KV Cyclamen is in an ASW TF redeploying from Calcutta to Rangoon. On the way, west of Rangoon, it hits I-155 with a hedgehog and many minor damage hits.

US troops fire artillery at Ambon. There is no enemy air or naval attack here. The troops will attack and try to take the base today.

All damaged ships head towards Timor or Darwin. No ships sprang any new leaks. Lots of enemy subs hunting cripples, though. And lots of Allied ASW ships hunting enemy subs.

Suspicious enemy task force at Namlea. And there's enemy mines there. The base flipped to the Allies today.

[Bif1961]

You pointed out why I assign around half the fighter strength on my fleet carriers to escort strike aircraft, in cases that some go off on reaction to a different hex and make coordination between TFs harder on strikes. I assign my CVLs fighters to 100 % CAP as well as CVEs and both of their TBDs, SBDs to ASW operations leaving the fleet CVs for strike and escort with their strike aircraft and about half their fighters. Now I do mix in additional fighters or bombers on the fleet carriers depending on what I might be facing, so it remains flexible but cuts down on unescorted strikes. Nothing is fool-proof.

[apbarog]

16 May 43

Allied ASW TFs clear the way for the most damaged ship heading towards Lautem. Destroyers Lamson and Perkins hit I-39 with a depth charge and many minor hits. Enemy subs are in a line from Namlea to Lautem, right along the path of the most damaged CVE. With it only moving 2 hexes a day, the subs are in the right place, but don't get a shot at it. The CVE is now 2 hexes NE of Lautem and should make it to port today. ASW efforts continue. An Allied cruiser force, sent out to protect the CVE during the night, hit I-19 with a depth charge.

Near Wenchow, in the shallows, sub Steelhead hits and sinks AMc Minowa Maru. I've shown that US subs will go to the Chinese coast, and sometimes mine the coast. I'd like to force the big enemy convoys away from the coast, into the deep water. Right now, it looks like OPilot is using various convoy routes to and from Japan. Coastal China, between the Philippines and Formosa, and east of the Philippines. Most seem to be coastal China right now.

Perch hit tanker Oyashima Maru between Luzon and Formosa. The tanker was not loaded, but audio suggests that it sank.

I had decided not to attack at Ambon after landing there. I had the strength to do so, but I guessed that OPilot would send in a battleship TF to disrupt the expected attack. There was no battleship attack. I had just done an artillery attack. So I then decided to attack the next day. There was a suspicious enemy TF at nearby Namlea, and it turned out to be battleships. Kirishima, Hiei, Haruna and Kongo bombarded, causing 202 casualties. Most importantly, they badly disrupted the US 2nd Marine Division on Ambon, and didn't touch any other units there.

There was no negative modifier for disruption to the Marines, but they reported 88 disruption after the attack.

Ground combat at Ambon (76,109)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 16235 troops, 282 guns, 243 vehicles, Assault Value = 498

Defending force 6802 troops, 54 guns, 16 vehicles, Assault Value = 119

Allied adjusted assault: 121

Japanese adjusted defense: 325

Allied assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 4)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), disruption(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
332 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 51 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 13 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Guns lost 25 (2 destroyed, 23 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
325 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 48 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 2 disabled
Guns lost 6 (1 destroyed, 5 disabled)
Vehicles lost 6 (2 destroyed, 4 disabled)

Assaulting units:
2nd Marine Division
3rd USMC Tank Battalion
1/532nd Boat&Shore Engineer Battalion
1st USMC Field Artillery Battalion
16th Base Maint Engineer Battalion
223rd Field Artillery Battalion
23rd USN Special Construction Battalion
9th Marine Defense Battalion
53rd Aus Lt AA Regiment
24th USN Special Construction Battalion

Defending units:
I./4th Infantry Battalion
III./4th Infantry Battalion
60th JNAF AF Unit
29th Fld AA Gun Co
24th Special Base Force
25th JAAF AF Bn

What could have been a cakewalk turned into a stalemate, at least for today. The Allied troops will rest while the artillery bombards for a couple of days. One concern is that the Marine division is supplied but has not much more than necessary. An excess of supply was unloaded with the troops, but the excess was absorbed into units other than the Marines. A resupply trip may become necessary if the next attack doesn't take the base. And with level 4 forts, the base may not fall immediately.

British carrier Victorious has finished a multi-month refit at San Diego and will head to Hawaii. A new version of the British Liberator, one with a transfer range over 80 hexes, has arrived. A unit converted in Calcutta. It will fly to Diego Garcia and then, amazingly, all the way to Koepang on Timor. I will be using this unit as a surprise, deep-strike attacker. I think its bombing range is 23 normal and 28 extended, if I remember correctly. From Koepang, it can do a surprise raid on oil at Brunei. The real goal of using this unit north of Australia is to force OPilot to spread out his fighters.

[apbarog]

17 May 43

Yesterday, I moved 2 F4U squadrons from Rangoon to Tavoy. 30 Oscars swept Tavoy, but were surprised to find CAP there for the first time. The runway had almost no damage, but the service facilities had damage greater than 90. I took a chance moving the fighters in and it paid off. 21 Oscars were shot down. Then a big bomber raid appeared, without escort. 55 Sallys and 24 Sonias were intercepted by about 20 Corsairs. 22 Sallys and 7 Sonias were shot down. No F4Us were lost. 3 Corsair pilots became aces. The F4Us were moved back to Rangoon, but there are 8 or 10 damaged ones still at Tavoy, and they are at risk, particularly with airfield services still so badly damaged. It was worth it.

I did lots of shuffling of carrier air units at Darwin. 2 undamaged big carriers will leave Darwin and go to Wyndham to disappear. The other carriers are at Darwin, fixing up minor damage. They will be sorted out, and sent to appropriate locations to fix up the major damage. All of the carriers in port at Darwin moved their aircraft to Darwin itself. These units are consolidating there, and taking on new aircraft and pilots. That will take some time. There aren't enough dive bombers, and there were barely enough trained Navy torpedo bomber pilots. I need to increase their training, which means taking a unit out of service and using it for training.

I've been sending very long range recon to various bases, trying to determine which bases OPilot is using, and where KB could be going. I looked at Ternate, Balikpapan and Davao, and all looked like they aren't being used much. Today I looked at Babeldaop, and it's very busy. Many task forces there. I can't rule out the KB is already there. There's 16 ships in port, including an ARD. Babeldaop is being used.

I moved 3 B-24 squadrons to Dobo to hit Babeldaop's port. Then I learned that Dobo's airfield, size 4, isn't big enough for the B-24s to fly at extended range. But I saw that nearby Taberfane is size 6. So I moved 4 other B-24 squadrons to Taberfane, and they are ordered to hit Babeldaop's port. It could be a very good raid, or a very bad one. No CAP was spotted there today, but I did just recon it, and that probably got OPilot's attention. And if KB is there, in a task force, there could be many Zeros above the base when the B-24s arrive. High risk, high reward.

[apbarog]

18 May 43

West of Luzon, Grenadier hit tanker Kurogane Maru with a torpedo. Soon after, Gunnel spotted the damaged tanker and hit it with another torpedo, sinking the empty tanker. This tanker task force had just been spotted moving west in the one deep water hex just south of Formosa. These ships are using a mid-ocean route through the South China Sea back to Singapore.

Saury sank AMc Tama Maru near Hong Kong.

6 US cruisers bombarded Ambon, causing 426 casualties and moderate base damage. With AKEs moved to Lautem on Timor, the cruisers can go back and forth every day. Except for fuel, which is now drained dry at Lautem.

YMS BYMS-2006 spotted enemy mines in the shallows just west of Rangoon. OPilot is very aware of my convoy routes into and out of Rangoon. Luckily for me, a sweeper spotted the mines first.

Sallys and Lilys and Sonias bombed Chinese troops in the desert near Ningsia, in far northern China. This has been routine. Today Chinese Lancers flew LRCAP over the hex and shot down 5 of the bombers. Only 3 Lancers were on patrol since the range was long (4 or 5 hexes). A Chinese pilot, FO G. Yi became an ace.

Chiang Mai's airfield was hit by many Allied medium and heavy bombers. No CAP.

B-24s from Taberfane flew a long range strike to hit Babeldaob's port. There were no fighters at the airfield, same as the recon showed yesterday, but KB was there (as well as the accompanying battleship task force). 37 A6M5 Zeros from the carriers protected the port, shooting down 19 bombers. Very bloody. A Zero was downed. It was valuable to learn that KB is there. It would have been wonderful if it had been disbanded in port, but no luck there. Some ships were hit in port.

AMC Asaka Maru, Bomb hits 3, heavy fires
AMC Kongo Maru, Bomb hits 1
PB Seikai Maru, Bomb hits 1, on fire
AMC Akagi Maru, Bomb hits 2, on fire
xAKL Sasago Maru, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires

and

xAKL Nanko Maru, Bomb hits 1, on fire
AMC Akagi Maru, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
AMC Kongo Maru, Bomb hits 1, on fire

and

AMC Kongo Maru, Bomb hits 1, on fire, heavy damage

The US 2nd Marine Division on Ambon reduced its disruption to 33. They will rest for one more day, then all units attack. An LST convoy is leaving Darwin with additional supply, if needed.

I have some thoughts about upcoming invasion plans, but they will have to wait until tomorrow.

[apbarog]

Upcoming Events

Took another look at the "big picture". The recent carrier battle reduced Allied carrier capabilities. Only 2 CVEs were sunk, which is minor really, but other carriers were damaged and will be out of action for awhile.

Wasp and Hornet need significant repairs. Wasp will go to Pearl Harbor. Hornet will go to Sydney. CVE Altimaha will either go to Brisbane or Sydney, with a lower priority for repair than the big carriers. Enterprise has been at Sydney for months repairing. It still has 37 days to go, and that's without any other ship there repairing.

The bottom line is that Saratoga and Lexington, CVL Hermes and CVE Sangamon are not damaged. Yorktown has just SYS 6/FLOT 4/ENG 1/FIRE 0 and will continue repairing at Darwin. These ships are what's available north of Australia. Certainly not enough to go up against KB again.

CV Victorious has just left the west coast and is heading towards Hawaii. It will head either to Darwin or Tabiteuea.

In the next 30 days, however, more ships are on the way. 4 CVEs, CV Essex and CVL Independence will arrive. In 39 days, CV Yorktown II will arrive. So help is on the way.

The question is what to do, in what order, and when. Here's my thinking now:

I don't want to go up against KB in the next month. But I don't want to wait and not doing anything for a month. If I can bait KB into going the wrong direction, I could do an invasion or two.

1. Feint an invasion of Truk. OPilot has KB at Babeldaob. It's been at Sorong also. He's keeping it at a central location, ready to respond to a threat. He did so at Ambon successfully, although not in time to stop the landings. Get KB going the wrong direction, in this case towards Truk. I have an excess of xAPs on the West Coast. Many had been used in the huge invasion of the Rangoon area. I'm now loading lots of them up with supply and will move them to Ponape and Kusaie, and unload the supply there. Ponape gets daily enemy recon, so they'll be spotted. I'll move other task forces there too. It'll look like something is up. Maybe KB will jump towards Truk.

2. Invade Kolaka, just west of Kendari. Troops are 80 to 90 percent prepped for Kolaka. Take the base quickly with overwhelming force, using APAs, and land substantial forces prepped for Kendari on day 2. The goal is to take Kolaka and Kendari. If KB is away, I can do this with the carriers available.

3. KB then rushes to the west to counter the Kendari threat. The task forces at Kusaie and Ponape Islands have then loaded 3 infantry divisions plus lots of support units for an invasion of Truk. This could be covered with the new carriers arriving in the next 30 days, plus Victorious if I choose. The invasion of Truk would include a substantial over-stacking of troops. I would use an excess of xAPs for the landings, and an excess of supply would be unloaded. Unloading would be slower with the xAPs, but if you use enough of them, it can be done fairly quickly. Taking Truk would be tough, but Kusaie is close by. Slow battleships can make regular bombardments. P-38s can sweep. Heavy bombers are in range. It could work. If KB isn't there.

The advance that I really look forward to is a big jump to Banjoewangi, on the eastern tip of Java, combined with landings at Denpassar and Mataram. I'd land at Waingapoe also. It would then take some time to do a landing elsewhere on Java. I would not try to conquer Java from Banjoewangi. The plan is to draw enemy troops into the mountains between Soerabaja and Banjoewangi, then land elsewhere on Java, behind the enemy.

Should KB not react in the way I predict, I'd postpone the invasions until either more carriers arrive or the troops for the Java area landings are prepped.

[jwolf]

In 39 days, CV Yorktown II will arrive.

Since you still have the original Yorktown, shouldn't you rename this one?

As for your strategic discussion, you don't need to rush anything. You have already broken into the DEI, at a relatively early date, and time is on your side.

[BBfanboy]

I like Plans 1 and 2, but not 3. The big APs are just on the cusp of conversion to APAs (about half in 3/42 and the other half on 6/42). And Truk naval fortress will sink at least a few of them even if you have BBs embedded (a much weaker fortress sank one of mine despite two BBs embedded in the Amphib TF).
IMO Truk should be suppressed for months with bombardment from air and sea before any landing, or bypassed and neutralized.

[apbarog]

jwolf, I'll have to look into renaming Yorktown II. I've not done that before, so I'm not sure if I have to wait until the ship appears to rename it.

BBfanboy, your point is a good one about the Truk naval fortress. I also know from SigInt that the big mobile Wake coastal gun unit is at Truk also.

It's May 1943. All of the APs have already converted to APAs. Most are at Darwin. I'm proposing to use just xAPs for Truk, not APs or APAs. Just using a large number of them to expedite unloading.

I would start the suppression of Truk with plan 1 and the feint towards Truk. The sweeping and bombing would continue on through till the actual landing at Truk.

My choice is either to go ahead with a Truk landing, with 3 infantry divisions that are completely prepped for Truk, or have the divisions start prepping for something else.

[jwolf]

To rename the ship simply click on it while it is still in the reinforcement queue. Then click on the name and call it whatever you want. This is only possible with ships named for those that sank historically, however; you can't rename ships in general. If you wait until the ship appears, it's too late.

[apbarog]

Thanks jwolf. I have a name in mind for the Yorktown II. Something in honor of the great escape from Manila, honoring the first major US vessel to brave the waters of the Japanese homeland. Even though that vessel survived and still floats.

19 May 43

US cruisers again bombarded Ambon. 220 casualties, with some devices destroyed. Moderate base damage. Allied troops will attack today. No US bombardment though. During the night, ships were spotted leaving Babeldaob to the southwest. And later, D/L on subs southeast of Manado were 10/10. So KB, and the accompanying battleship task force, is on the way back. I'm figuring that the battleships are too far away to bombard Ambon today, but a full speed run could change that. 3 US DMS went to Ambon and stayed the day, and cleared all of the mines. They'll head back to Darwin.

Near Medan, in the shallow water, Grayling hit tanker Mitu Maru with a torpedo, sinking it. It didn't have fuel. If it was just a one tanker convoy, as it appeared, it was probably running fuel between Medan and the Malayan coast.

36 Tojos swept Tavoy. Nothing but 8 or so damaged F4Us on the ground there. The bombers returned, with Oscar escorts this time, and did moderate base damage. The engineers there can't keep up with the bomb damage.

My favorite Beaufighter unit had moved to Dobo, hoping to target enemy shipping spotted on the other side of New Guinea. 4 xAKLs were spotted at Hollandia.

Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Hollandia at 93,116

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid spotted at 18 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 4 minutes

Allied aircraft
Beaufighter VIc x 11

No Allied losses

Japanese Ships
xAKL Yamayuri Maru, Shell hits 1, Bomb hits 6, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAKL Yamabuki Maru, Bomb hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage

Aircraft Attacking:
11 x Beaufighter VIc bombing from 100 feet
Naval Attack: 2 x 250 lb GP Bomb

B-25s, also from Dobo, followed up and finished off the 2 cargo ships.

Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Hollandia at 93,116

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 6,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-25D1 Mitchell x 4

No Allied losses

Japanese Ships
xAKL Yamabuki Maru, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
xAKL Yamayuri Maru, Shell hits 22, Bomb hits 2, and is sunk

Aircraft Attacking:
4 x B-25D1 Mitchell bombing and strafing from low level
Naval Attack: 6 x 500 lb GP Bomb

I undertook a major reorganization at Darwin. I'm sending Yorktown to join the 2 other working carriers at Wyndham. Hermes and Sangamon too. All of the APAs and LSTs are going to. And the combat ships: cruisers and destroyers. I'm clearing out most of the shipping in port at Darwin, ships that are spotted every day. It will be noticed that they are gone. OPilot has many subs on the northeastern coast of Australia, no doubt hoping to pick off cripples coming through. And they are coming. I'm hoping he thinks that my major combat vessels have left northern Australia. He never looks at Wyndham. I'm sending more engineers and base support to Wyndham. I'll base there until the next operation.

Some SBDs and escorts are moved to Dili, in case KB and/or battleships come within range. Only about 36 escorts, but it's worth a try. Some bombers might get through. He'll probably get within range of Ambon and stay to the north with KB, or move by Kendari for support. The battleships are expected at Ambon, tomorrow.

Dutch minelayers at Noumea are forming up and will drop mines at three locations, at and near Milne Bay, to block the first three routes around the tip of New Guinea. OPilot has many subs around northeastern Australia, and they are using Rabaul as the port. The mines should get a sub or two.