Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice)

[Canoerebel]

7/27/44

Battle of Soerabaja: Dave stole a march on me. His army at Malang suddenly vacated the hex, moving via good road to adjacent Soerabaja. Thus he doubled his army against the Allied army newly arriving there. He decided to shock attack immediately, figuring that this was his best chance. I didn't know exactly what he had; he didn't know exactly what I had - but he did know I had a massive army at Malang and more over at Madioen and vicinity. Surely, he might've figured, I was stretched thin at Soer.

When I saw the attack screen pop up, I gulped as I looked at how many divisions he had. When I saw the attack come off at 1:1, I gulped more. But the results were cataclysmic for Japan.

This is one of those occasions where you just feel for your opponent (kind of like how the St. Louis Cardinals feel for the Braves).

My guys won't counterattack, yet. I'll bomb and bombard for awhile, because heavy reinforcements are inbound. The present army is in great shape except for 40th Div., but I'd hate to muss them badly when they should be 2x or better in a week or so.

[JohnDillworth]

Better devices for you perhaps but a bad die roll for your opponent for sure. He had a great idea and caught you leaning the wrong way. You should have taken a pretty good paddeling. As for the baseball game. I planned my whole evening around that. Came home, packed my bag for the next day, changed, made my lunch, sat down to watch the game (whole series had been great pitching duels) and ended up with a free evening. Sorry for your loss. St Louis has a great organization. They always seem to be in the mix this time of year

[Canoerebel]

I went for a run on Lavender Mountain because I don't like playoff baseball, in general, and deciding games, in particular. I usually bug out. Unfortunately, I turned on the car radio en route to the mountain, and fell into the Slough of Despond, as did the wanderer in The Pilgrim's Progress. That was epically ugly.

I like Dave's idea. He saw the chance to combine forces to take on mine, and he went whole hog, now or never, by shock-attacking. It had to be either that or a long, lingering death. He did well.

I have a big HQ 100% prepped nearby, and three or four of my big units were likewise at 100%. That probably helped, too. It came down to four divisions vs. four divisions, but I also had some armor.

[JohnDillworth]

The Pilgrim's Progress

Weird, 2nd reference to Pilgrims Progress in my reading today. 1st was a reference in The Atlantic's review of the upcoming HBO series "His Dark Materials" based on Phillip Pullmans book series of the same name. Might be time to pick up The Pilgrim's Progress. That book should be read every few years. Just getting a head up on my reading list too.....Oh well, so many books, so little time

[CaptBeefheart]

Assuming you've got 1943 & 44 devices in your divisions, you definitely outclass his troops. Tough break for him. You've been operating just inside his OODA loop.

Cheers,
CB

[Canoerebel]

7/28/44

Battle of Soerabaja: Dave surprises again - another shock attack. Another surprise - it comes off at 1:1 too, despite the carnage inflicted on Japan yesterday. Fortunately, the results mirror yesterday's. The IJA garrison is in big trouble. In addition to battle fatigue, the Allied army from Malang will arrive tomorrow. The Allies may try a probing deliberate attack the day after.

The transport TFs from Ceylon begin arriving at Java tomorrow.

Bay of Bengal DS ended up a single hex from DS today. Tomorrow they'll merge. D-Day at Banjermasin probably day after tomorrow.

More than half the oil at Balkpapan damaged.

[821Bobo]

Looks like Japan doesn't have enough and don't know when to switch to defense. It is second half of 44 and it also mirrors real casualty ratio in the later period of war.
But good Japan role playing from Dave.

[HansBolter]

He killed a fair number of your tanks and I see the only tank unit in the hex is an amphib tank battalion who's AV was reduced to 0.

I have found the amphib tanks don't hold up well in land battles.

You might want to put it in reserve or pull it out.

It at least warrants review of its condition following the battle.

[Canoerebel]

7/29/44

The tanks retired on the 29th, as did 40th Div. Most of the vehicles destroyed were motorized transport.

Battle of Soerabaja: No enemy attack today. Allied armored unit closed last IJ hexside, so the siege is on. Allies will attack tomorrow, bolstered by a big commonwealth tank brigade packed with Shermans.

Banjermasin: D-Day tomorrow.

Battle of Java: Probing deliberate attack tomorrow at Semereng. Dave seems to be moving some or all of his army from the adjacent hex there. No sign of him bringing reinforcements forward to Java, just no sign yet of a general withdrawal and evacuation. I think Dave has seen enough to deduce that this campaign may be hopeless now. I think it is. But if more ships approach Batavia, DS will react (once it completes the Banjermasin mission in a day or two).

KB: No sign of it. Could be lurking in the shadows to either side of Borneo; it's possible it was due for upgrades.

[JohnDillworth]

One funky attack could have been a bad die roll. A second one, with similar results, is a trend. You just have better devices at this point in the war so 1:1 attacks against reasonably rested and prepared troops are going to be a problem for Japan.

[Canoerebel]

I think so. The marine division has '44 squads, so that's probably the killer.

P.S. I might re-read The Pilgrim's Progress, too. Sounds like a good idea.

When the pioneers packed meager possessions into covered wagons and moved west, the Bible was the most common book they took with them. The Pilgrim's Progress was number two.

[Gridley380]

Excellent results from your night B-29 strikes a few days ago (sorry, catching up). You must have some good pilots.

[Canoerebel]

I selected this squadron randomly from among 10 or so stationed in the DEI. It has such good pilots that it may not be representative of the others. But without any night-fighter op, and facing but meager flak, they'll score well against ships in port.

[Canoerebel]

7/30/44

Battle of Java: There are signs that Dave might be transitioning form "counterattack!" to "retreat and evacuate!" Not positive yet, but I think the Allies might wrap up Java in a month. I'd like to isolate Singapore within two months.

D-Day Banjermasin: The landings go well.

DS: Three USN CVs, fresh from triage, have rejoined DS; an RN triage CV is about to do so. In addition, the Bay of Bengal DS (two CVL, eight CVE) is now part of DS. All told, there are roughly 1800 aircraft present. That's enough to move about with a moderate to high level of confidence. Wheels always have the ability to come off in the most unexpected ways, but this is the time to move, attack, and exert pressure on the enemy.

[Canoerebel]

7/31/44

DEI: The Allies take Semarang (big port) and Banjermasin.

It seems to me that Dave has been alert to the dire situation for four or five turns now. I think his army is retiring. I think he'll work hard to manage an evacuation. Are things dire enough that he'll throw caution to the wind and attack? It's definitely possible.

Dave's Deep Strategy: As you all know, Dave's strategy was to establish a relatively standard perimeter and to then dig in. He didn't probe deep anywhere. From what I can tell thus far, he's really worked hard on building forts (7 at Soerabaja was more than I typically see for a base like that; Singers might be that or more). He created reserves at key points, like Singapore, and had the shipping in place to deploy them when called for. So, in this game, anyway, it seems like he prefers to take the high ground and then let the enemy attack. The strategy seems viable, except if the dampened scoring (he only has 33k at this point) leaves him more vulnerable to auto-victory.

[Canoerebel]

8/1/44

DEI: Train of transports carrying reinforcements begins arriving at Semarang. The first division there is already moving out on the coastal road and made 23 miles on day one. So movement won't be slow in the open terrain. DS moved west and is close by, proving security.

Points: In my game with John III, the Allies drew even on 8/2/44, both sides having (as I recall) 56k. So the Allies were 56k from victory, which was achieved on May 11, 1945, slightly more than nine months later. The Allies had already moved on Luzon and (I think) China by this date, so I was far ahead, from a geographic standpoint. But in this game the Allies are just 30k from victory. I've a long way to go to get into strategic bombing range but there are a lot of high-value bases in the crosshairs, including Singers, Rangoon, Manila, coastal China and Formosa. So it'll be interest to see if "being further back geographically but far ahead by points" is a worthwhile way of prosecuting the game. I suspect that it is.

[Canoerebel]

Earlier today, the forum or my computer was acting funky. AVatars and attachments weren't showing up and it was difficult or impossible to post. I needed just 10 seconds to make a slight edit to my 7/31 post above but it took 15 minutes to get it done. In the process, I accidentally clicked the Quote button, thus creating the same post twice. Beyond exasperated, I deleted the material and wrote nonsense in its place. For the sake of perpetuity, and so that Lvoejoy's comment continues to make sense, here's my nonsense:



Place holder, so that I can later place a hold, right here, when the time comes or the need arises, whichever comes first; possibly either/or; possibly both; remotely likely, neither.

If uncertain, do not question the motives of the accused, the sender, the recalcitrant, the uncertain, or the behooved.

There is less than an even chance that half to two-thirds of all who read this have not lunched with a paradigm of virtue in more than two days. Blest be ye, oh denizens of the mortal forum, and those what call this place a place worth calling, on occasion.

Ye are stellar.

[Lovejoy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Place holder, so that I can later place a hold, right here, when the time comes or the need arises, whichever comes first; possibly either/or; possibly both; remotely likely, neither.

If uncertain, do not question the motives of the accused, the sender, the recalcitrant, the uncertain, or the behooved.

There is less than an even chance that half to two-thirds of all who read this have not lunched with a paradigm of virtue in more than two days. Blest be ye, oh denizens of the mortal forum, and those what call this place a place worth calling, on occasion.

Ye are stellar.

Sir, You write with wonderful prose

[BBfanboy]

Canoerebel: DEI: Train of transports carrying reinforcements begins arriving at Semarang. The first division there is already moving out on the coastal road and made 23 miles on day one. So movement won't be slow in the open terrain. DS moved west and is close by, proving security.

The map artwork doesn't show it clearly, but there is good grey road all the way to Batavia along the north coast. Press the "R" key to see the road network.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks for the tip. I knew R hotkey showed oil flow pipelines. I didn't realize that also indicates roads.