Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice)

[Capt. Harlock]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

It appears you have taken Nemo's maxim of "play the player" to heart! Your ops have interlocking strategies to make him respond in ways that you want while making him feel he has no choice but to react. The only way out of that loop for the defender is to do what Nemo would do - abandon the units and areas you can't defend and make aggressive, unexpected moves of your own - something like taking the Hawaiian islands while your fleet is all on the other side of the map, or suicidal invasion of Seattle and LA to destroy industry.

I really don't see that happening. The KB would not be able to provide sufficient air cover after the battles in the South China Sea. And pulling out the troops needed would probably trigger intelligence reports.

[Canoerebel]

Dave asked for "Withrawals Off" setting when we started, so the Allies have a bunch of permanent restricted troops on the West Coast, making it safe. But an all-out effort for Pearl would be nerve-wracking.

Nemo: <shudder>

When I was a young lawyer, I worked for William E., an immensely talented, smart trial lawyer. He was not a warm and fuzzy sort. He had a gift for making a person feel like an abject idiot for asking a question or not having an answer. It got so intense that I began having occasional nightmares about him. Finally, he left our law firm. I was certain - certain! - that one day I would have a case against him, and that he would expose me as a complete imbecile in court before judge, jury and audience. He passed away without that ever happening.

I felt the same way about Nemo. I tried to coax him into a match. I really wanted to give it a try. But I felt sure he would expose me as a complete imbecile before the Forum.

[adarbrauner]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Yeah, I knew that.

There are different schools of thought and strategy, I'm sure. On the one hand would be the notion of trying hard as early as possible, before the odds get even worse. On the other, don't "banzai!" when it's hopeless.

And there are the gamers vs. the simulators. You and I are gamers. I suspect Dave is a simulator (even if the thought never occurred to him).

Dave's style of play reminds me a lot of how I recall Miller - tenacious, fighting defense, even when it seems or is hopeless.

He also knows well these are his very last bullets (as opposed to the situation John III or Obvert were and are in), now or no more; I like his style of play; from the peanut gallery point of view, it seems he may have improved coordination and planning, but that's a result possibly of his very fast turn pace;

the Allied protracted move within the DEI offered a big number of possibilities to the Japanese defender, that a player like John or Obvert may have better exploited (coordination between land based and carrier based wasn't much, at least from an external point of view; thanks greatly also to CR anti air/airfields successful campaign, but where is Japanese AA? Should Japan have thought and planned better how to defend its airfield network in the region, knowing the menace?);

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Yeah, I knew that.

There are different schools of thought and strategy, I'm sure. On the one hand would be the notion of trying hard as early as possible, before the odds get even worse. On the other, don't "banzai!" when it's hopeless.

And there are the gamers vs. the simulators. You and I are gamers. I suspect Dave is a simulator (even if the thought never occurred to him).

Dave's style of play reminds me a lot of how I recall Miller - tenacious, fighting defense, even when it seems or is hopeless.

Tenacity has many forms. When it's all said and done I'll reveal a lot about hw the defensive strategy has evolved over time. It's difficult for an Allied only player to know what Japan has up it's sleeve, what the IJ is capable of in certain situations. From my Allied games I feel I already have a good picture of what I'm up against because I've been there on the other side, I've had to manage defense and economy simultaneously, and I now have that experience through late 45 (thx!) which is amazing.

[Canoerebel]

It may be impossible for me to express myself clearly - in such a way that readers understand my point without coming to conclusions that I didn't intend. I seem to have a hard time communicating.

In describing Dave as "tenacious," I wasn't comparing his style to yours. I was only describing him. I've never played an opponent who wasn't tenacious. That's part of the IJN player DNA, I suppose.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: adarbrauner

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Yeah, I knew that.

There are different schools of thought and strategy, I'm sure. On the one hand would be the notion of trying hard as early as possible, before the odds get even worse. On the other, don't "banzai!" when it's hopeless.

And there are the gamers vs. the simulators. You and I are gamers. I suspect Dave is a simulator (even if the thought never occurred to him).

Dave's style of play reminds me a lot of how I recall Miller - tenacious, fighting defense, even when it seems or is hopeless.

He also knows well these are his very last bullets (as opposed to the situation John III or Obvert were and are in), now or no more; I like his style of play; from the peanut gallery point of view, it seems he may have improved coordination and planning, but that's a result possibly of his very fast turn pace;

the Allied protracted move within the DEI offered a big number of possibilities to the Japanese defender, that a player like John or Obvert may have better exploited (coordination between land based and carrier based wasn't much, at least from an external point of view; thanks greatly also to CR anti air/airfields successful campaign, but where is Japanese AA? Should Japan have thought and planned better how to defend its airfield network in the region, knowing the menace?);

Your conclusions are good ones, Adar. I agree with you.

The night bombing has been decisive in this campaign, even though I haven't been using uber numbers. Dave uses night fighters but they haven't been close to effective. I don't know if he's distributed his AA well. I do think he exposes masses of planes (and sometimes ships in port) too readily. One factor may be that it's late '44. I don't have anything better to do with my B-29s, given the locus of the war, so they're all contributing to this campaign. I don't know if he has better options for night fighters but hasn't built or deployed them properly, or whether he somehow doesn't have them at all. IE, I know the night bombing has been decisive but I don't know whether Dave's been at an unfair disadvantage or simply overlooked or neglected aspects of defense.

[Canoerebel]

11/13/44 to 11/16/44

Raid on Manila: Here's a good example. Seven B-29s come in pretty low and deliver a bunch of hits against important shipping. Night bombing is borked, right? Nah. There's no flak. The Irving is/can be a good night fighter. And Dave's had capital ships parked here for weeks. I've seen them; I've waited for Samarinda airfield to reach level 7; then I watched to see if Dave pulled out his ships, realizing his peril; he didn't, so this raid was set up. I think enemy doctrine and defenses were the major contributors to this debacle, and I'm kicking myself for not having more Superforts involved (but supply is an issue).

Malaya: Dave hasn't counterattacked against the new Allied army in Malaya (yet). Half the army will arrive at Georgetown tomorrow, where Dave currently has 26k troops. That's not enough to hold off nearly 5k AV. Progress right now isn't a big issue, because I'll have to take on and fight his southern Malaya army here or somewhere, and here suits me fine. But if I pick up Georgetown quickly, that's fine.

DS & The Non-Linears: The bulk of DS & The Herd will arrive at Soerabja tomorrow. The Non-Linear Option features three targets. The third will involve Strat-transported troops that will first unload at Target One, when it's taken. Those units have already loaded about transports in Transport mode. Loading of the assault shipping bound for Targets One and Two likely to commence tomorrow. The fleet should get underway in two or three days. CV Ticonderoga probably won't go (she needs two more weeks in the yards), but Wasp, Intrepid, an RN CV, two CVLs, and two CVE will be added to the force. It will be enormous.

[castor troy]

ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock

ORIGINAL: ChuckBerger

You didn't utterly destroy his carriers, but you did utterly destroy his carrier force. Congrats!

+1

I don't see either the IJN or IJA air arms ever fully recovering from those losses. Especially since I think his airframe production may be feeling a resource pinch.

airframes are never a prob for Japan, the real prob are the pilots

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: castor troy

ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock

ORIGINAL: ChuckBerger

You didn't utterly destroy his carriers, but you did utterly destroy his carrier force. Congrats!

+1

I don't see either the IJN or IJA air arms ever fully recovering from those losses. Especially since I think his airframe production may be feeling a resource pinch.

airframes are never a prob for Japan, the real prob are the pilots

Agree. I was thinking the weakness of the Japanese NF opposition is more to do with pilot skill levels than anything else.

[HansBolter]

Wow, 9,000 feet and no losses to flak!

I lose B29s to flak at 18k feet.

[Canoerebel]

In all probability, there's no flak there - at least, no dedicated units.

[Canoerebel]

11/17/44 to 11/19/44

DEI: Allied army easily takes Georgetown and turns towards Singapore.

Burma: Allies take Pegu, which really seals the fate of Rangoon. Allied army here is very weak, and the Rangoon defenses are stout enough to hold them off as long as supply is available. The loss of Pegu should settle matters, though it'll take awhile.

Non-Linear Option: Underway, with all ships departing Soerabaja today.

It doesn't look like Dave will be feeding reinforcements and ships into the Malaya campaign (it would've been fun to have a meeting engagement in the South China Sea, as DS moves north). He's probably content to allow fortress Singapore to stand alone as long as possible while events elsewhere take over. That's the right call.

[Canoerebel]

11/20/44 to 11/22/44

The Non-Linear Option: DS & The Herd have "rounded Singkawang" and entered the South China Sea. They are about five days from the target. By this point in previous excursion, KB sprang into action, giving combat before I had expected. No appearances this time. I don't know its whereabouts. I somewhat doubt DAve will give battle, given his losses. I think he'll require a more desperate feeling. DS is configured for offense and defense, with strike aircraft and escorts set to range seven.

Malaya: African division takes Alor Stor, on the north side, and main Allied army gets 2:1 in opening attack vs. enemy divison strongly reinforced at Taipeng. Additional Allied divisions will arrive over the next few days and the Allies will continue attacking until they break through. I think this will be the main roadblock short of Johore Bharu.

Rangoon: No real Japanese units here, but one of the faux foreign divisions provides the backbone of the defenses. More Allied units are inbound but they're all weak Burma and Indian units. I'll try one probing attack in a week or so to gauge what needs to be done to take the base by the end of the year or thereabouts.

[BBfanboy]

Kirishima took two torpedoes during your last big set of clashes. Typically, three torps will put a Kongo class BB under so I guess he doesn't dare move Kirishima yet. Bomb away!

If Groot Natoena does not have a strong garrison I would use raiders or paras to take it. Otherwise, he can use Jakes from there to search an important chunk of ocean.

I guess your horde of subs off Borneo are going forward with your herd to scout the opposition?

[Canoerebel]

A bunch of those subs are on their way.

[Canoerebel]

11/23/44 and 11/24/44

The Non-Linear Option: DS & The Herd continue deeper into the South China Sea without material opposition. I think Dave will attack sometime during the transit, so the hatches are buttoned down.

Taiping, Malaya: Enemy resistance here collapses, with the IJ units retiring in bad shape. No sign (yet) that any of Dave's 95k troops at Singers is moving forward to contest the Allied advance.

[T Rav]

Not sure if I've seen the word Penumbra in a casual sentence before; well done.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks, TRav. As I was writing, I didn't pause to consider the rarity of the term. I suppose astronomers will be most familiar with it, followed by those familiar with constitutional law. If memory serves, the majority opinion of the U.S. Supreme Court's Roe vs. Wade decision used the word in finding a right to privacy where one wasn't specifically enumerated by the Constitution.

[T Rav]

My (slight) familiarity of the term comes from the astronomy side, not the legal.

Always a pleasure to read your AAR for a variety of reasons, but your gift of writing is certainly part.

T Rav

[Canoerebel]

11/25/44 to 11/27/44

South China Sea: DS & The Herd continue northwest without meaningful opposition. As they passed close to Saigon and Cam Ranh, I really expected Dave to pounce. (Bangkok and Manila are also in range, there, and are loaded with aircraft). But he didn't. Now I kind of think he'll let the situation develop before attacking. Of course, the ships have to be ready at andy and every moment.