Did You Know I Used to Drive a Rollercoaster?: Apbarog(A) vs OPilot(J)

[apbarog]

24 Jun 43

42 Oscars and 42 Tojos swept Tavoy, but I still didn't put any CAP there. No enemy bombers there today. I did move some P-40s to Hengyang, where they flew south and did LRCAP over a contested hex. I guessed wrong though. The unescorted Sonias hit the troops in the next hex over. Also, Hengyang was bombed heavily. No P-40s were lost, as they were flying to the south, but the base is damaged. The P-40s are ordered back to the capital.

Mili is finally cleared of the enemy, with the last of the 63rd Naval Guard Unit being destroyed.

The armada, including carriers, was at Truscott, and there was bad weather there and nothing was spotted by the enemy. Darwin did get enemy recon. Ships there are loading for landings 3 and 4. Darwin's port is not as crowded as it was, and there's about 40,000 fewer men there. The armada will now turn to the northwest and head towards Java. They are taking a rather direct route and will pass fairly close to Waingapoe and Mataram on the way. If the enemy has search planes at either of these size 0 airfields, the invasion armada will be discovered.

KB was not seen today, but a US sub got 10/10 detection level south of Babeldaob. KB may have moved from Babeldaob to Peleliu to hide. I did recon of Ulithi and a couple of other smaller bases in the Mariannas, but didn't see anything.

Tomorrow I may start loading supply at Tabiteuea for a possible landing on Truk. If KB goes running to the Java invasion, we're going to Truk too.

[apbarog]

25 Jun 4

US APDs, running a fast transport supply mission into Ambon, run over I-36 and hit it with a couple of depth charges. An "ABDA" task force, minus the "B", bombarded Ambon and did moderate damage to the base. The APDs, on the way home, were spotted by I-28, which hit APD Alden with a torpedo, sinking her. Another APD fast transport task force unloaded supply at Namlea successfully.

Northwest of Wyndham, the Java invasion armada was spotted by I-39. I-39 hit Every task force, including the carriers, were spotted. The TF that I-39 engaged had battleships Prince of Wales and Massachusetts, with 4 cruisers and 2 CLAAs. It was a carrier TF. OPilot now knows that something big is going on. Now to see his reaction. I-39 also engaged a destroyer task force, and torpedoed destroyer Stanly, sinking her. The sub was then hit with a couple of depth charges.

For now, the invasions are still on.

[jwolf]

It's really cool -- and a great testament to your organization and planning -- that you always have a Plan B ready to go in case Plan A is aborted.

[apbarog]

Thanks jwolf. But every plan looks great until enemy contact. Although I've only lost 2 CVEs in the war, the enemy has superior carrier capability. It still appears that most, if not all, of the big enemy carriers travel together. My carrier forces are split, with some off northern Australia and some at Tabiteuea. Either of my carrier task forces cannot match up to a "KB" force. I have several big carriers under repair. For now, I'm playing the game of having offensives planned in two distant regions: towards Java and invading Truk. Each of my planned invasions presumes that enemy carriers aren't in the area. So where the enemy goes, I go the other way.

"KB" either has to go running back and forth, or split up.

[Macclan5]

In fairness this line of advance is very strategic.

..and yes Apbarog's Management of it is also flawless.

Notwithstanding divided Carrier forces no death star compared to the full fledged KB...

From "Timor / Ambon" you can:

i) drive north through Kendari with highly valuable Mindano as an objective
ii) drive west through Bima with highly valuable Soerabja

Both directions provide valuable sites for Sub bases and long legged Bombers as the Allied commander.

Or feint both ways while attacking towards Truk / Burma / etc

The decision to keep the KB "en mass" may actually be a handicap to the Japanese player in 1943. In maintaining absolute Carrier vs Carrier battle superiority through till 1944 - the Japanese player is also allowing the Allied Commander to take significant bites out of the periphery that ultimately play into the Allies winning hand in 44/45. Namely Bases - bases with Subs / Liberators / Jugs / within range of oil / resource fields.

Maintaining the "certain Carrier battle superiority" is useless if the Allied commander does not engage in a massed Carrier battle.

[jwolf]

Well it is certainly a strategic dilemma for the Japanese player. I've never played Japan in the campaign so I don't know what is the standard strategy, if there is one, with regard to keeping KB together or not. But I can imagine this is a really hard problem for the Japanese player to solve.

[apbarog]

This would be one of those occasions where it would be interesting to see what OPilot's thinking is right now. I think there's a lot of value to many readers when both sides of the war have AARs.

[EDIT: I meant that it would be interesting for some readers. Not implying that I want to know. I certainly do not. I meant that as a reader, when I'm reading other AARs out there, it can be interesting to see what a player is thinking, right and wrong, at any given time. Reading some AAR's, I just read one side and get invested in that. In others, I'll check both sides. Depends on the author and if I want to root for a side.]

OPilot has been defensive for quite awhile. He has kept his carriers around Ambon, denying me easy access to it, and allowing him to reinforce it with a division. That has the Marine division there stalemated. We had a carrier battle in the area, where he appeared suddenly. He won the one-sided battle, but I only lost 2 CVEs, but had several others and several big carriers damaged.

At this point, I think the Japanese player first has to recognize that the Allied carriers are split, and that these invasions are being covered by fewer carriers. And then the Japanese player has to strike, moving full speed and being very aggressive. This assumes that a "KB" is staying together. And I think it has to. Allied reinforcements are arriving. New CVEs are arriving more frequently. 2 CVL's are traveling to the front. The second Essex class carrier (in my game, the "Dewey") is about to arrive.

[apbarog]

26 Jun 43

Sub Haddo hit AO Sata with a torpedo northwest of Manado. Hake followed up with an attack on the damaged tanker, getting 2 more torpedo hits on Sata, sinking the ship. Hake went an escorting patrol boat later in the day, but missed with 2 torpedoes.

S-42 missed CL Natori with 4 torpedoes near Ternate. This task force has made runs into Ambon before.

OPilot lucked out moving KB back to Manado from Babeldaob the other day. Now it's headed southwest. The Java invasion is postponed, but the Truk invasion is on. I plan on overstacking Truk but unloading an incredible amount of supply. If I'm not able to take Truk with 3 divisions quickly, and KB comes that way and isolates Truk, my troops will have enough supply to be just fine.

New Essex carrier Dewey, last in the line of distinguished Deweys, has arrived in Panama. A CVL will arrive tomorrow, and the pair will head to Pearl Harbor.

[apbarog]

27 Jun 43

Tambor missed AV Sanyo Maru with 4 torpedoes northwest of Soerabaja. This is the first enemy naval activity spotted north of Java. The AV may be moving to set up search planes, probably southeast of Java.

Snapped missed I-39 with 2 torpedoes near Java.

Namlea was bombed by Sallys.

Truk invasion shipping, including the carriers, is leaving Tabiteuea. I'm not happy with the force composition. I only have 4 heavy cruisers, and no battleships available. I'm putting 2 CAs with the carriers. Another will be with Fletcher destroyers as a protection force, and the last will be in a small bombardment task force. There will be coastal guns on Truk, augmented by the Wake Coastal unit. I have a slow battleship heading to Tabiteuea from the east, and 2 more between Brisbane and Tulagi, heading that way, but they won't arrive in time. The landing will be heavy in ground forces and light in naval support.

Meanwhile, KB seems to have moved into a position to stop all of my planned invasions from Java to the southeast. The right decision was made to postpone the landings.

[apbarog]

28 Jun 43

S-31 does good work today without getting a torpedo hit. It spotted two enemy task forces, one with BB Kirishima and the other with seaplane carriers, moving northwest from the Makassar area. S-31 did fire 4 torpedoes at DD Isokaze but missed. These two task forces are very likely to be KB and the escorting battleship task force. Combined with the information from Tambor north of Soerabaja, it's apparent that the enemy is moving northwest, possibly to Soerabaja, possibly towards Singapore.

I'm wondering what OPilot is thinking. He spotted my huge armada seemingly headed towards Java, then it disappeared. I guess he could think that it's moved further south but is still westbound, maybe headed for a landing on the southern Java coast. Or maybe something else, like Christmas Island. Or he's headed to Singapore for some repairs, now that he came as far west as Makassar.

Regardless, KB is now a long way from Truk.

A good day for the Silent Service. Seadragon hit E-boat W-18 near Samarinda, sinking the ship. It was escorting an xAP. Trident spotted a convoy of medium sized tankers due east of Singapore. 2 torpedoes missed TK Takekun Marun.

Muskallunge did good work, hitting xAK Sugiyama Maru with 2 torpedoes near Toboali, sinking the ship. Then Muskallunge attacked again, hitting xAK Nojima Maru with one torpedo, and also sinking that ship. I have a number of subs east and northeast of Batavia, in shallow waters, hunting shipping that I expected to come from Singapore when my Java landing started. The landing didn't occur, but the enemy's shipping may be coming anyhow. No troops on these cargo ships though.

Hoe hit E-boat Wakatake with a torpedo, sinking the ship. This was near Sidate. The area around Manado is still a big battleground between enemy E-boats and ASW Lilys versus Allied subs.

B-24s hit Ambon. Looks like the enemy TFs that were there were E-boats and an LB task force, unloading supply.

Today is my first strike on Truk. There's at least 100 fighters there. About 70 P-38s are ordered to sweep Truk, flying from Ponape. 12 B-24s will hit Truk's port, flying from Ponape. There's a few support ships there, including ACMs. 36 B-24s will bomb Truk's airfield at extended range from Kusaie. It would be nice if the fighters swept first, but we know how that goes. I'm risking the bombers for the possible benefit of surprise.

Truk invasion shipping continues to move towards Ponape and Kusaie. Loading is occurring at Ocean and Nauru Islands. Loading at Kusaie will start tomorrow, followed by Ponape.

[apbarog]

29 Jun 43

Steelhead missed E-boat Yugao northwest of Ambon. Grouper fired 2 torpedoes at TK Kanzaki Maru near Tandjoengselor. One hit but was a dud. That tanker was hit by a dud torpedo from Perch back in January. Sailfish spotted a lone cargo ship, xAK Nissen Maru, west of the Sunda Straits. With no escort, the sub fought it out on the surface. Sailfish fired many torpedoes, in fact, every torpedo it had, at the cargo ship. Only one hit, and it was a dud. It did get 5 shell hits on the ship. In return, the sub was hit by 3 shells. Neither vessel was badly damaged. Seeing a long ship in that area makes me think that OPilot was emptying ports on the southern coast of Java. My armada disappeared and was headed westward.

Dutch sub KXVI missed xAK Victoria Maru with two torpedoes near Donggala. Grouper then attacked the same ship, getting one torpedo hit.

Two of the three P-38 squadrons at Ponape swept Truk. The first ran into 90 A6M5 Zeros and 9 Rufes. Losses were equal, at about 4 each. The next P-38 squadron met 79 Zeros and 7 Rufes and did much better. Then the Liberators started to arrive, flying at 10,000 feet. At first, there were still 54 Zeros and 6 Rufes. The CAP wasn't very effective, but the flak at Truk is very, very heavy. Several waves of B-24s came in, doing very minor base damage in severe storms. The bad weather affected the bombers' aim but not the flak gunners'. Total losses were 27 Zeros and 2 Rufes for 11 P-38s and 7 B-24s. It may be difficult to keep up constant sweeps with just 3 squadrons. A fourth is currently upgrading to P-38Hs in Australia and will move to Ponape when able. I will be able to cycle bomber squadrons, with units being able to fly all the way from Darwin to Ponape or Kusaie Islands.

Major F.L. Lawlor got 2 kills over Truk, giving him a league-leading 18 kills for the campaign. Two pilots in the squadron, including Lawlor, have 90+ experience. Four pilots in the squadron have 15+ kills. The squadron commander is Major G. "Pappy" Boyington, with 4 kills. It's interesting that Captain R. Johnson has 14 kills in the squadron, and his skills are only 73 experience, 72 air and 70 defense.

Recon of Soerabaja showed KB and the battleships there. Allied shipping continues to move in the general direction of Truk. I'm waiting another day for loading to start at Kusaie.

If I can neutralize Truk's airfield, the enemy ships there will be vulnerable to my carrier strikes. I'm seeing enemy destroyers and cruisers, and maybe battleships, in a task force. B-24s will strike from a higher altitude from now on. Trying 16,000 feet today. The Allied carriers will get to Nauru Island today.

[apbarog]

30 Jun 43

US APDs were on a fast transport supply run from Lautem to Namlea. They ran over a bunch of subs. I-26 was hit by 2 depth charges after missing APD McKean with 2 torpedoes. I-179 then torpedoed APD Manley twice, sinking her. I think that's the third APD lost to sub torpedoes near Ambon. Another hit a mine and sank.

Today's raids on Truk went out of order, with the B-24s going in first. The bombers flew higher than the last mission but still ran into heavy flak at 16,000 feet. This is the heaviest concentration of flak that I've seen so far in the war. And at that altitude. Enough of that. They're flying at 25,000 feet today. We'll work our way down from there to find a sweet spot for bombing and not getting shot down. Enemy CAP was about half what it was previously. A squadron of P-38s did go in afterwards, and did well. Total air losses were 15 Zeros, 1 Rufe and 2 Emilys (ground losses), for the cost of 9 B-24s and 3 P-38s.

I decided to move all of the US B-24s from Burma to Timor. The B-24Ds can go from Rangoon to Koepang, and are ordered to do so. The B-24D1s can't make it from Rangoon, but they can from Moulmein, and will transfer there tomorrow. One squadron of B-24s went to Chungking today and will bomb northeastern China. The B-24s moving to Timor will be available to augment groups hitting Truk, and will deploy to Tulagi from Timor to wait their chance to cycle through. Only so many squadrons can be supported at Ponape and Kusaie.

I think I will continue moving the Truk armada to near Ponape. Then I may have the carriers sprint to a hex adjacent to Truk, while a surface group goes to Truk and stays, hoping to clear out what looks like a bunch of destroyers. I may be able to keep the sky over Truk clear, but I need to clear out the enemy combat ships before my huge transport task forces arrive. Remember, Allied naval combat strength is weak for Truk. The "A-Team" is at Port Hedland, Australia.

Speaking of which, Port Hedland got 1/1 DL from all of the ships in port. With that occurring 2 days in a row, I thought it would be wise to move the ships. They'll all go to Wyndham, including the carriers. The troops will stay at Port Hedland and help build the base, and wait for the chance to invade Java.

Port Hedland would be fairly easy for KB to raid. KB is at Soerabaja now. It could easily slip south, past US subs, and sneak up on Port Hedland. Bases further east on the northern Australian coast would be more difficult to surprise. It doesn't look like a Java invasion will happen soon, with KB sitting at Soerabaja.

But it isn't at Truk.

[CaptBeefheart]

Good luck with Truk. Not having BBs in the invasion TF to soak up rounds might be a bit problematic.

Cheers,
CB

[apbarog]

I should have 2 slow US battleships for the landings. They are leaving Tulagi now headed north. I've slowed the pace of the armada and loadings since I think I need to clear enemy destroyers out of Truk before landing. Those 2 battleships just came out of refit at Brisbane. Another is near Tabitueua and will head towards Ponape soon. I still have a weak naval force for such a big landing.

I wouldn't be surprised if there was an enemy battleship TF in the Mariannas. I do hope there isn't another carrier TF there.

[apbarog]

1 Jul 43

Near Bandjermasin, S-31 fired 4 torpedoes at destroyer Onami but missed. Battleship Kirishima is spotted, with 5 destroyers. KB and the battleship task force seems to still be at Soerabaja, hidden somewhat with a poor recon, but Kirishima could be an indication of ships moving towards Truk. The battleship shouldn't need to go to Balikpapan for fuel, having been at Soerabaja. Of course, you never know when a ship is being sent back to Japan for upgrades.

Swordfish hit xAK Yamagiri Maru with a torpedo just west of Formosa. Swordfish attacked the ship again later in the day, and hit it again with a torpedo, but it was a dud this time. The cargo ship is reported to be on fire with heavy damage, but is just one hex away from safety in a port on Formosa.

15 P-38Gs swept Truk, finding 40 A6M5 Zeros and 3 Rufes. Losses were about even, with 4 Zeros downed for the loss of 3 P-38s and a B-24. B-24s bombed from 25,000 feet and didn't hit much. Damaged a few planes and did very little airbase damage. Flak was surprisingly still there, but much lighter than yesterday. We're dropping down to 18,000 feet for the next missions. I had just mentioned Pappy Boyington, a squadron commander on Ponape flying missions over Truk. He got his 5th kill today. 2 elite pilots were KIA though. One had 13 kills and another had 9. This P-38 squadron is so full of elite pilots that you can't help but lose a great one when someone doesn't return.

Allied carriers have split off from invasion shipping north of Nauru, and will head towards Ponape. A Fletcher destroyer group is escorting, and will be the attack group for the run into Truk in a few days.

[CaptBeefheart]

Good to hear. The BBs will come in handy.

Go Pappy! I'll have a wee dram of 12-year-old scotch this evening (I recall that was the most precious commodity on the TV show).

Cheers,
CB

[apbarog]

2 Jul 43

Dutch sub KXVI fired 4 torpedoes at tanker Kanzaki Maru near Donggala. 2 torpedoes hit, and the tanker was carrying fuel towards Manado. The ship sank. Kanzaki Maru had been hit by a dud torpedo fired by Perch back in January.

Some nuisance raids here and there. B-25s hit Lae for something different. No CAP there. DB-7s hit Boela. But the focus is on Truk.

And today the P-38s didn't fly. About 16 B-24s attacked Truk at 18,000 feet, and found a CAP of 50 Zeros and 5 Rufes. About 4 Liberators were shot down, but there were many OPS losses on the way home and write-offs after landing. 13 B-24s were destroyed. No damage was done to the airbase.

Back in the stalemate that is Burma, I'm making a maximum effort at Bangkok for the first time. I believe it has a lot of flak, and I know that it has 100 to 150 fighters. 2 new P-47 squadrons will make their first appearance flying from Tavoy. 2 F4U Corsair squadrons will sweep from Moulmein. 2 P-38 squadrons will sweep from Rangoon. Multiple B-25 squadrons will attack Bangkok's airbase from Moulmein, flying at 15,000 feet with (hopefully) 2 P-40 squadrons flying escort. Several heavy bomber squadrons will hit the heavy industry at Bangkok, flying from 10,000 feet.

My plan is to show my hand in Burma, showing off my new P-47s and trying to overwhelm the enemy CAP. Killing pilots is the priority. But my plan is then to send the P-47s and F4Us back to Ceylon, where they will load up on ships and go to Australia. For me, Burma/Thailand is a stalemate that isn't going to open up without a massive land commitment, one that I don't plan on making. My excess land units from Burma are on Ceylong prepping for Sumatra now. I don't plan on doing much of anything into Thailand. So I'm pulling out my best fighters and using them where I do plan on big things, which is the move towards Java from Australia. The risk is that OPilot decides to go on the offensive from Thailand. But I think I could hold my ground without my best fighter types there.

[apbarog]

3 Jul 43

8 British Liberator GR.IIIs fly from Roi Namur to Truk at night at 15,000 feet. They don't hit anything in heavy rain, and most are damaged by flak.

The big effort at Bangkok doesn't go as planned, which is fairly normal. 14 Corsairs from Moulmein swept first, finding 78 Oscars and 33 Tonys. The Corsairs do well despite the numbers. But then 21 B-25s from Moulmein arrive, without escort, and get mauled by about 86 enemy fighters. Most are downed before dropping bombs. Then 29 B-25s from Moulmein arrive with the scheduled escort of 50 P-40s. They find 72 enemy fighters. A handful of bombers go down, and moderate damage is done to the airfield. They shoot down a Tony and destroy a few planes on the ground. Then 3 B-17s and 10 B-24s arrive at 10,000 feet, and find 63 enemy fighters. Flak downs a B-17, and one heavy industry is hit. 11 straggling B-25s come in next, and most are shot down by a still strong CAP of 40 Oscars and 13 Tonys. Then another 11 B-25s, against 41 fighters. A few planes are destroyed on the ground, with lots of damaged B-25s trying to make it home. Then the P-38s from Rangoon arrive, late, and do well, but the CAP is much reduced so not many planes are downed. 12 B-17s then hit a couple more heavy industry, then 9 more get 4 industry. Now the other Corsair squadron with 16 planes sweeps, but there's only 4 enemy fighters still up. Then 18 P-38s, and 22 P-38s, but neither group finds any enemy fighters left. So, plenty of sweepers, but they arrive after the fact. Plenty of escort, but they went with a fragment of the B-25s. Oh, and the 2 P-47 squadrons that I was so anxious to use for the first time didn't fly at all from Tavoy. That would have helped also.

Damaged planes at Moulmein rail back to Rangoon, including a Corsair squadron, which will then fly to Ceylon to load on ships to go to Australia. The P-47 squadrons flew back to Port Blair, and will continue on to Ceylon for loading also.

The Banjoewangi and Denpassar invasion shipping moved east to Wyndham and refueled, along with the carriers. They are ordered back to Port Hedland. They will be ready to restart the postponed Java landing if KB turns up elsewhere. Another recon of Soerabaja shows that KB is no longer there. If it went with Kirishima to the north the other day, it could be approaching Babeldaob now, assuming normal speed. Recon is ordered for Babeldaob today. With what's about to happen at Truk, if KB is near Babeldaob, it'll come running, and I won't have time to do the actual invasion of Truk.

What may happen is that KB comes to Truk after seeing today's action. I kick off the Java related invasions. KB goes back to Java. I kick off the Truk invasion. KB goes back to Truk. I kick off the Celebes invasion. That would be something, wouldn't it?

[apbarog]

Don't have today's turn yet. My gut is telling me that KB is on the way to Truk and that there isn't time to invade it. I'll look at today's turn, and see if there is any confirmation of this, but given no further indications, I think I won't load the 3rd division from Ponape, and I'll unload the other 2 divisions and support at Kusaie. It'll overstack Kusaie, but I have plenty of supply, and I don't think the delay will be long. Just until I draw KB back to Java.

My Truk invasion would have had time, I think, if I had moved immediately, but I have weak naval support, and there's enemy combat ships at Truk. I thought it would be wise to clear them out. Let's see how that worked out today, once I get the turn.

[BBfanboy]

apbarog: My gut is telling me ...

Given the RL date, would it be "talking turkey" then?