Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice)

[Canoerebel]

1/21/45 to 1/26/45

The Next Operation: Loading has commenced in a weird way. Slower TFs and secondary landing TFs loaded first and got underway to a staging point about a fourth of the way to the beach, where AOs are stationed to refuel, especially the shorter-legged ships like DEs. Triage is basically complete at Soerbaja. I think the carriers and main combat TFs will depart tomorrow, along with many (but not all) of the important invasion TFs. By the day after tomorrow, I think all ships will be on their way. D-Day in perhaps 10-12 days.

Soerabaja's big level-64 shipyard has been working overtime since it was taken, bolstered by a ton of nav support and big ARs and ARDs. Still, the port can't come close to keeping up with demand. Priority, as you might expect, was given to key ships and ships with low damage. Two CVs and a CVL won't be finished in time; ditto many other useful ships. But the yard did great work on so many major combat vessels that I have no complaints. DS will be huge. Lots of work done to upgrade aircraft, replace pilots, and rest the air frames.

China: Dave's scrambling a bit to plug holes in his dike. The Allied army is about to arrive at Kukong in strength. Thus far, he's had to feed units piecemeal, allowing the Allied army to beat up some of his units. The Allied army isn't really a juggernaut, but each step forward relieves pressure on the old MLR, freeing up Chinese units to march forward. The Chinese, in turn, are upgrading to 1943 squads, making them stronger.

Singapore: Second probing attack (this one deliberate) to take place in about three or four days.

[Canoerebel]

1/27/45 to 1/30/45

South China Sea: The Herd (with CVE DS) has rounded Singkawang and is moving east. DS trails by about six hexes and should catch up in a turn or three. D-Day in perhaps five days.

Second Allied attack at Singers drops forts to 8 and takes very heavy disablements. It may be three weeks before the Allies attack again.

In China, Kukong is turning into a contested hex. The Allies don't have enough to punch through - and, even if they, did, they don't have enough to threaten any major points centers right now. So this theater is more about creating pressure and the elusion of threats.

The war is likely to be won at Singers, Luzon, possibly Formosa, and via Strategic Bombing. The Allies are 15k points from AV. No more than five months at the current pace and probably more like 3-4.

[Capt. Harlock]

The war is likely to be won at Singers, Luzon, possibly Formosa, and via Strategic Bombing.

Do you anticipate the Soviets will activate?

[Canoerebel]

No way.

On a separate note, this foray might prod Dave into another all-out attack, if he has the means to do so. He's thus far shown a preference not wo wait while the odds ever worsen. It suits me to fight, given the current strength (and freshness) of the Allied combat and carrier TFs.

[BBfanboy]

He may be under the illusion that a lot of your carriers sank when in fact you were able to save them. I think the Japanese side FOW on losses rarely gets corrections until the ship shows up again in combat.

Interesting that his air losses are 50% higher (in points) than yours.

[Canoerebel]

The air war has gone very well but still is a "drag" on AV, since it's at less than 2:1.

Thinking along the lines of points, Air War and Ground Losses are tough areas for the Allies to achieve 2:1 ratios (especially Ground). Ship Losses can also prove tough. That leaves Strat Bombing and Base points as crucial to achieving victory.

Towards the end of 1943, Dave led by 28k to 17k. Now Japan has 38k and the Allies 61.5k. The Allies have outscored Japan 44k to 10k - 4:1, which is pretty good.

[Canoerebel]

1/31/45 to 2/3/45

D-Day Minus 2 or 3: The Allied armada is nearing the coast of Luzon and the vicinity of Manila. The targeted beaches appear vacant. Manila is strongly held, and I suspect there are several other strongpoints. I think Dave will commit his kamis and fleet - and if that's the case, tomorrow may be the turn.

The Allied fleet was separated by quite a distance until the 3rd - DS lagged by six to eight hexes and was only making 2-4 hexes per turn, for reasons that eluded me. I made some adjustments and things got back on the rails. The journey has been mostly uneventful, but today an I-400 boat claimed two AOs. An escorting PF sank the I-boat.

Tomorrow, APDs will land paratroopers at Culion, SW of Manila - the opening assault of the operation.

B-29s: After the destructive raid on Hankow, I decided to split them up more, to lower average raid size. A few turns after Hankow, the 'forts hit three airfields (Lang Son, Davao, Takao) that were overstacked, forward and unprotected. Carnage. And another group hit Manila port with similar devastation. Dave is exposing big armies.

But that leads me to a new query. The usual house rule is no more than 50 bombers on night attack - but does that mean per target or per night or per originating base? Those are very, very big differences. To my knowledge, that's never specified in House Rules.

[BBfanboy]

Looks like you have the Lingayan Gulf area in mind. Good choice - it worked for both the Japanese and the Allies IRL.

I always assumed that the focus of the 50 bombers at night rule was at the point of attack, but you know what they say about assumptions. On the chance that your opponent is thinking it means per departure base AND per target it might be a good idea to discuss with him.
Your ability to use Superforts to quash his LBA has to be getting him down ...

[T Rav]

Heavy bombers were daunting creatures no matter how they were used.

Day or night, massed or not, undefended targets and even defended targets will feel the pain. Tokyo and Dresden on one hand, Tirpitz and Dam-Busters on the other.

Bombs Away,
T-Rav

[Canoerebel]

We don't have any house rules in the game, so I'm free to do as I please. Nevertheless, I haven't gone crazy with the 4EB. But that's undoubtedly a matter of perception. To Dave, whose seen a few too many effective raids, it probably seems excessive. But I'm only using the -29s against ports and airfields occasionally. I'd probably discuss things with him if he had his bombers more dispersed and protected by night CAP and flak. Staging massed numbers forward without protection merits some punishment.

[BBfanboy]

Agree with the punishment idea!
It also occurred to me that your B-29s are getting good experience gains doing the night raids so when it comes time to bomb industry they should get good results. A good reason to keep the B-29 raids going.

[Canoerebel]

2/4/45

Invasion of Luzon: DS & The Herd move closer to the first major beach and APDs land a detachment at vacant Culion, an island SW of Manila. Enemy LBA sorties and a carrier TF is SE of Manila. Forces are converging.

[Canoerebel]

An enemy I-400-class put a TT into CV Victorious and died. The carrier has four FLT damage, nothing more. Several other enemy subs sunk.

[Capt. Harlock]

Four out of six APD's sunk? Ouch. Would it have been a good idea to include some high-AA-value DD's in the TF? Or do you have plenty more APD's where those came from?

[Canoerebel]

I have lots of APDs.

[Canoerebel]

2/5/45

Invasion of Luzon/AM Phase: The turn begins with B-29s hitting Manila airfield effectively and several altercations with enemy subs, which get clobbered without doing damage. Then air strikes begin...and DS and CVE DS are separated by two hexes.

The carriers handle the AM phase (LBA strikes only), as shown here. But the PM phase is going to be much busier.

[Canoerebel]

2/5/45

Invasion of Luzon: During the PM phase, KB launches an alpha strike at CVE DS, doing a lot of damage. Three CVEs sink and another ten or so are damaged, most of them moderately to heavy. Those will remain with the fleet, on the belief it'll be better to keep them under the CAP umbrella and disband them once a port is taken.

Dave lost 800+ aircraft today. I lost about 400 (more than 200 were Ops losses aboard ship).

Has he shot his wad or not? DS & CVE DS are to combine tomorrow, with D-Day postponed a day. The idea is to ride out this storm until Dave is truly out of "ammo." Then DS & The Herd will proceed with the invasion. In a week's time, I believe, Luzon will no longer be safe for any Japanese ships or aircraft.

Thus far, the CVEs have absorbed all the blows. The rest of the fleet is untouched, including fleet carriers, combat vessels and transports.

[Canoerebel]

2/6/45

Invasion of Luzon: Enemy strikes vs. DS get chewed up, but PM strikes find the crippled CVE TF, which detached (without orders) and steamed west. I lose five more CVEs (now 8 total), and a few more are in danger of sinking. Japan loses 357 aircraft, the Allies 113.

Most of the fleet will remain stationary tomorrow, but one amphibious TF will head to Iba (vacant), covered by roughly 10 CVEs. I think the Japanese air forces have expended themselves and will be tuckered out, either not flying or doing so in manageable numbers.

Dave is fighting very hard and effectively, but soon his air force will be in tatters. At that point, Allied landing ops will proceed. The plan is to bracket Manila and to take a number of islands. The Japanese army at Manila is 100k, and there may be other armies scattered about.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

An enemy I-400-class put a TT into CV Victorious and died. The carrier has four FLT damage, nothing more. Several other enemy subs sunk.

He appears to be misusing his I-400 boats as U-boats instead of submersible aircraft carriers. That class is just too big to maneuver well during ASW attack.
Do the sinking reports include the 10 aircraft they can carry?

[BBfanboy]

Yoiks - what a bloodbath! But on balance the loss of over 1100 aircraft has to hurt Japan more than your CVE losses. I think you are playing the cards right.

Don't know if I would call the SCTF a serious one. CLs Katori and Kashii are training cruisers with no armour - thus the penetrating hits from your DDs. But your DDs performed well a got a lot of hits. His DDs seem to be smaller ones with poor experience because they did not get a lot of hits for their numbers and they flamed easily. Could be a sign of more of the same in future engagements.