Banzais Don't Make Victories - Anachro (A) vs John 3rd (J) BTS 5.7

[Bearcat2]

What is the fuel situation on your ships, any ship in danger of refueling which would cause a split in your fleets?
With so few A/C losses and so few planes on his CV's, looks like you have holed his CV's and the planes flew to land bases.

John is super aggressive, he is coming for your carriers.

[Anachro]

As you can see from my attached image, the fuel situation is decent for the most part, but it is a tiny bit low for my British task force. Wouldn't cause a problem for the next turn, but could potentially if I had to flank speed in future turns. I also believe, like you, that the CV's for the most part in KB2 have had their flight decks shut down and the majority of A/C has flown off. I suspect John will be aggressive, but the biggest question is if he has the capability of sending KB1 far down. If I were John, I'd make for Ponape and use LBA, KB1 if possible, and SCTF to cover and potentially inflict harm.

[HansBolter]

If his main carrier force to the north contains all fast ships it will be capable of moving 18 hexes with a full speed sprint.

Add 8 hexes to that for his potential strike range and make sure your target hex for movement is at least 27 hexes away from his current location.

This likely means a foray to the south of the crippled carriers rather than to the north of them.

If you can find a location within 7 hexes of his expected travel range with the cripples and 27 hexes from the main carrier force, then a foray against the cripples is viable.

If not, don't pursue and be satisfied with what you already accomplished.

[Anachro]

So, here's a question for you: KB1 has been at sea for around 11-12 days. I've traced its path up above. In that time, it hasn't been fueled by AOs, nor has it visited a port. Do you think it has enough fuel/ops points to flank speed down 18 hexes? I'm not so sure. On top of this, it conducts a strike with ~120 AC against Milne Bay along the way, which also consumed fuel/op points if I remember from the manual.

I've separated out a SCTF to accompany my carriers and have so far added 16 additional fighters and 33 dive bombers to my carriers from marine squadrons. I am looking around for more at the moment. I still have not decided on the path of my carriers.

[Anachro]

The turn is away to John. I opted to send my carriers east just south of KB2 and then up 1 hex above it, one hex or so east of its current position. Hopefully, this keeps me out of trouble while getting a chance to hit any crippled carriers. In case John comes south with his carriers and SCTFs, my replenishment CVE, my ~120 fighter CVE Task Force, a CA/DD TF, and a fast BB TF head at flank speed from Milne to the dot hex just above Buin. This means they can participate in future action if needed and provide assistance. I have put a decent amount of fighters at Buin as well.

[BBfanboy]

Good move. Now is the time to bring all your reserves to bear and make the tactical victory a strategic one that will shift the balance for good. Sink three crippled carriers without losing any of yours and you have that.

[Timotheus]

Wow, he is alive.

This is one of the most fun AAR's to follow.
Anarcho is a good enough player so that the Japanese star wars force composition is not soul crushing, but a challenge.

WWHN (what will happen next)

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Anachro
So this is really a turn in which I ask the panel of readers. What do you think I should do with Death Star? Feel free to ask additional questions. The Lae invasion force is at Milne Bay with a strong covering CVE force (~120 fighters) and SCTF's. It can probably continue on towards Lae with additional LRCAP from Port Moresby. My Death Star carriers still have the large majority of their fighter strength, it was really only their bombers that were cut into. That said, they still have decent strike power.

Kill KB2. Repeat Kill KB2. That is all.

[Anachro]

@CB
We'll certainly try to sink KB2. In the battle, all four of John's fleet carriers in KB2 took 3 SAP bomb hits, with a fuel explosion and an ammo explosion for Hiryu and Soryu respectively. One is definitely sunk, with another most likely severely mauled and I'm hoping poor Japanese DC means the others are in trouble. I hope they are slowed down just enough on the morrow that we can have 4 CVs sunk and perhaps a CVL in addition. CVL Aso is a new CVL-class for this mod, CV Amagi is a new Shokaku-kai class, so I'm not sure how durable she is, but Akagi, Hiryu, and Soryu can be relative tinder boxes, at least historically! At Midway, Soryu took 3 SAP hits and burned up, Hiryu took 4, Akagi took (a very lucky) 1!




Of course, I could guess incorrectly tomorrow and not hit anything, or John can run into my CVs with SCTFs (the most likely bring ships split off from the mauled KB2), or John's KB1 can play a role (but in that case I think my own CAP should give me good protection). As BB states, sinking 3-4 Japanese CV's would give me a nice boost; however, it would only create parity, maybe a slight margin of superiority for me currently, but would have a big effect as more carriers come online in '43 and '44. I could then be more free in operations even in places where the IJN is also in force. I'm pretty sure John was trying to combine KB1 and KB2 because then he would have had CV superiority over me in the SoPac, especially with his CV-capable Georges coming online soon. CV Illustrious is 5 days from full repair in port at Sydney, CV Lexington is repairing at Capetown. 2 more Essex-class CVs come online in the next two months.

But let's not get ahead of ourselves...we're not through it yet. I might end up with damage to my carriers and only a Hiryu-class CV sunk for all of this.

[Anachro]

August 25th, 1943

I waited a long time for this turn, hoping there'd be some action. Unfortunately, it turns out to be a dud and NOTHING happens in the air in the South Pacific. Indeed, their is no DL on my carriers, either the fleet carriers heading east or my CVE's near Rabaul.

However, there is some interesting information that portends well for the Allies I think. First, a second sinking sound is heard and more Japanese naval A/C are shown to be destroyed on the ground. I'm guessing now that both CV Hiryu and CV Soryu have sunk (and the VP gain points to this). More interesting is what the intelligence screen shows me in regards to CV Akagi and Amagi. CV Amagi is shown as sunk at a hex north of Ontong Java. Akagi is shown sunk near Nauru Island, at a hex east of it. We can surmise that this is the path of the leftover crippled KB2 carriers: eastward.



As for my CVEs and such, I'll probably move them back towards Milne Bay to sit tight and provide CAP along with heavy LBA cover and in the mean time bombard Rabaul to hit any ships and planes that might be there. Death Star seems in good shape and can probably hold its own as it seems KB2 is no longer a force to be reckoned with and I do NOT want John to come down with KB1 on my transports while my carriers chase KB2.

Anyways, the important news: 2 IJN Fleet CVs SUNK! 2 more perhaps in trouble.

Now where to send my carriers. I will probably set them to naval strike at seven hexes again and move in a east, north-eastern direction. I'd love to sink 2 Akagi-class CVs with their nice A/C capacity.

[JohnDillworth]

John may have had to scuttle one of the CVs so the other cripples that could make better speed could get away. Or, it just sunk. Hard to picture John hitting the scuttle button on one of his ships

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Anachro
Anyways, the important news: 2 IJN Fleet CVs SUNK! 2 more perhaps in trouble.

I wouldn't be too sure of TWO sunk CVs, Anachro. The 'Ground' losses seldom lie, IMO, but the other bits of intel you point to are fraught with overinterpretation. I've seen those 'sunk at XX, XX' messages change as the enemy beats a retreat across a path. Same with VPs granted before they're actually in the bag.

Following the path of the crippled enemy sounds like a good play. Maybe they're out there just a bit further East. Good luck!

[Anachro]

You misunderstand me. I know two CVs sunk because there were 2 sets of sinking sounds, this and last turn; and both turns also showed Japanese naval A/C destroyed on the ground. I assume based on damage from the previous turn that these sinking sounds were CVs Hiryu and Soryu. I am using the "ships sunk" intelligence estimate to check the path of John's remaining carriers (which look to be Amagi and Akagi) and this implies he took them east towards Nauru (i.e. making use of the changing location of their sunk estimates to figure out their path).

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Anachro

You misunderstand me. I know two CVs sunk because there were 2 sets of sinking sounds, this and last turn; and both turns also showed Japanese naval A/C destroyed on the ground. I assume based on damage from previous turn these are CVs Hiryu and Soryu. I am using the "ships sunk" intelligence estimate to check the path of John's remaining carriers (which look to be Amagi and Akagi) and this implies he took them east towards Nauru (i.e. making use of the changing location of their sunk estimates to figure out their path).

Right. I didn't see the posting of the earlier set of 'ground' losses until just now. You're right-that's probably two in the bag. Nicely done. [8D]

There's also a better than even chance that the remaining carriers are either incapable of conducting flight ops due to damage >50 or that their decks are overloaded with refugee aircraft from the two stricken carriers. Either way, they're meat on the table. Go cut their guts out.

[Anachro]

August 26th, 1943

Another day and more frustration as I am so frightfully close to John's beleaguered remnants of KB2. However, as is my luck, I am just out of range: they are 9 hexes away! The interesting thing here is that he has no DL on my carriers, but he most definitely should know they nearby due to his TFs both having DL and he probably got messages of enemy carrier A/C in their area as they conduct naval search. So, if I were John, I'd probably be fueled up at Truk now and would potentially send KB1 flank speed towards the Marshall Islands. That said, Jaluit is 28 hexes away so John shouldn't be able to act immediately. I'm guessing John will try to hide his carriers in port, but the question remains which one. Jaluit is the closest, followed by various other dot hexes nearby. He will probably try a CAP trap as well and hope my a/c goes after nearby TFs as bait, so even if I do double missions of naval/port strike I can run into problems.

What would you do? I can detach a SCTF to flank speed towards Jaluit, but that's risky. That said, John's CVs are damaged and surely low on fuel.



However, not all is boring and mundane, as my bombardment of Rabaul yields some nice results. Not only do I get my BBs and CAs to bombard the place and destroy/damage a decent amount of fighters there, but we find some nice CLs and DDs that were formerly escorts for KB2. An Aoba-class CLAA, a Tokoro-class CL, 2 Kagero-class DDs, and 1 Shimakaze-class DD are sunk in addition to the bombardments. Elsewhere, our DMS's find that John has craftily placed a CD unit, one of his new ones in this mod I think, on the dot hex of Umboi Island, probably to prevent a transit up towards Manus.



I think the prudent thing for now with my transports is to pull back out of range of suddenly appearing enemy CVs from Truk, etc. Then I can conduct a movement on Lae once Death Star comes back. I will probably move east with my CVEs and SCTFs towards Guadalcanal to link up with Death Star eventually.

[Anachro]

Sunk Ships

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Anachro
What would you do? I can detach a SCTF to flank speed towards Jaluit, but that's risky. That said, John's CVs are damaged and surely low on fuel.

So, no DL on your ships? What makes you think that he's planning on setting up CAP or SCTF trap at Jaluit? Why would he do that unless he was convinced that he was being pursued?

In any case, you have a favorable tactical position and you should press it to your advantage. You only get these sort of set-ups once or twice a turn. Put the jackboot on his throat and crush it.

I would move as close to Jaluit as I could this turn-see if he continues fleeing East. If he is, you'll be in range tomorrow because of your superior TF speed. If he breaks North or NW for Truk, you'll be within range based on your new position at Jaluit (assuming he's making 6 hexes or fewer per movement). If he goes to ground at Jaluit then-the turn after next-you bombard the port with a detached BB/BC/CA TF and sink them at their moorings.

[Anachro]

Regarding your DL question, if he is conscientious in following the replay, reading the operations log, and notices his TFs in the Marshalls have DL, he should assume I have ships nearby. The operation message might even say 'TFxxx spotted by enemy divebomber' etc. I think there are enough indications to surmise that my carriers are nearby. That said, he has no idea where they might be specifically; only an estimated range.

[Canoerebel]

During the replay (001/movie file), if an icon appears on the map for one of your TFs, that means it's been "seen" by the enemy and appeared on your opponent's turn-file screen.

[Anachro]

Turn sent. I really hope this is the one. Flank speed ten hexes up to the hex just northwest of Jaluit. I opted to set some TBs to Nav/Port Strike of Jaluit just in case. Hopefully, no surprises as KB1 on the flank is still a risk. TFs pull back from Milne and CVEs and Replenishment CVEs move southeast from Milne.

John has been spending a lot of time on these turns; no doubt he is moving various TFs around in addition to KB2.