Banzais Don't Make Victories - Anachro (A) vs John 3rd (J) BTS 5.7

[ITAKLinus]

Anachro, that's more than double just for the initial production centers......



And please don't fall into the trap of "ah but many centers are to be repaired!". It's just a plain lie: reparation of those centers is an investment with a wonderful ROI, especially if you consider the additional HI Japan has. Basically, you have to invest say 2M supplies over the next 6 months in order to gain way way more in a short period of time afterwards. They feed HIs (2 supply points per day) plus the extra refinery capacity (another supply point per day). Meaning that you recuperate your 1.000 supply investment on an oilfield in Nov-43 (considering a reparation made on 7-DEC and that the HI and refineries would be "dry" otherwise).

In other words: Japan has an incredibly strong economy supported by an incredibly strong self-sufficiency in terms of raw materials.


It's like Yamamoto seized the power, ordered dozzilions of ships and cool planes. And... His christian religion enabled him to multiply oilfields and HI instead of bread and fishes.

[ITAKLinus]

Oh yeah, and if you believe that, I have a bridge to sell you.

Probably it's because I'm half drunk: I haven't understood what you mean with the bridge thing.


And, belive me or not [:D][:D][:D][:D][:D], this week I might need to be involved in the costruction of a bridge for real. Send me a PM for that bridge specifications [:D][:D][:D][:D][:D][:D][:D][:D][:D]

[JohnDillworth]

[/quote]

Okay, those numbers just don't make sense at all.

Oh yes they do.......they make perfect sense. No wonder he can keep running his fleets all over the place

[Anachro]

Initial Resource Production. I have to admit, I never thought to look into these numbers before because 1) I'm playing the Allies and 2) I assumed the numbers would be the same with a initial worse stockpile for Japan. Of course, I probably saw some of this in-game, but never thought to compare with other Scenarios. Instead, Japan has much stronger natural resources production base, a similar level of stockpiled resources, etc.

It's a bit deceptive in the mod page to claim that Japan is in dire need of the DEI. Here I was thinking oil was a super critical resource for Japan and that John might have fuel difficulties given how much he moves his capital ships around, but the economy page tells me John can get more of his home islands needs from home and devote more of his DEI production to fueling the fleet needs.

[ITAKLinus]

Am I reading this correct? It seems to invalidate the claims made on the mod page about Japan needing to secure DEI ASAP due to a critical fuel/supply situation, which was supposedly the cost/justification for Japan's greatly expanded OOB and war-making abilities.

I posted my reply to this message before the edit.


First of all: sorry again if I have opened the Pandora box of Japanese economy in your AAR!



Replying.

There is NO justification for that.


I make an example which should be quite self-explanatory.

I am in one of my 2 afromentioned Jap PBEMs in mid-May 1942. I have KB which is going to strike NZ in a couple of days. It's coming directly from an engagement near Colombo. Refuel with AOs south of Cocos, then Perth, then Melbourne and now NZ.

Look at the map to see NZ.... It's quite "far" from everything. [:D][:D][:D][:D]

Now imagine that I have heavy committments all around the map since 7 DEC. I have never stopped for real, just to repair some engine and sys damages. I haven't done even upgrades to anything so heavy are my naval committments in this brutal start of the game.

I have been using EACH capital ship (10xBBs + all the CAs minus Maya, sunk some days ago) since the very first day. Not a single day of pause. I have them followed by AKEs and they bomb enemy fortresses. Now, for example, it has been one month they bomb everyday Sidney under siege.


Still, my fuel and oil levels are not even close to the "alert" level. I simply don't care since so far it's ok. I made very long and complex calculations in industrial terms and so I know what I am doing (somehow...). What I mean is that even stretching so much the fuel consumption, I have no troubles.
And I haven't done a single OIL/FUEL shipping from DEI to Onshu so far. Instead, I shipped 200k from Onshu to Truk (again, it's not blasphemy, I somehow know what I am doing: did my homework).

EDIT: I have shipped roughly 300k from DEI to Australia to feed HIs (and fleets) there, though.


So, even in a "normal" Scen1 game, there is little need to conquer DEI immediately in terms of fuel. Even if you overextend like a mad and you don't ship back to Onshu for the first 6 months.

That's why I am 300% sure in what I say when I say that "conquering immediately DEI" is a plain lie. Completely. With no possible interpretation otherwise.


Japan can run its fleet and industries for quite a long time even without shipping a single oil point back to Onshu. Clearly, there are many many many considerations to do for not doing that, but, in case, it's completely possible with little concern. [provided you are able to ship bigger quantities than usual afterwards, of course]




I am probably a mediocre player, but if John has to say something, I am completely able to subscribe what I said in this topic and debate with him. I know that what I am saying in regards to this matter is right and I'm plentiful of Scen1 data recorded to demonstrate what I say.

[Anachro]

Well, needless to say, this needs to be a big issue brought up in John's new mod thread. I'd certainly love to hear his justification. I've PMd NYGiants to share his thoughts in here if he sees it. As for the game, it goes on, but now with the added understanding that the resource/fuel war isn't as critical as I thought it would be.

[ITAKLinus]

I'll be brutally honest:

I think that he had somehow made a nasty trick on you. I started to realise it only when I read some of the replies regarding Japanese economy in the last couple of days. I took for granted that everyone knew the state of the Japanese economy in the mod, while eventually it's not the case. That's why I brought up the calculations I did some time ago for the Italian player I mentioned before in the topic.

This can have major impacts on the game since I guess you have been prepared since the beginning for a relatively weaker Japanese economy instead of the monster it actually is.

I also add that I withdraw my offer to continue the match in case John leaves (in case you would have agreed of course!) because I see that you didn't know to what extent the Japanese economy got boosted. And, thus, its underlying capability of fighting a war at least on par with US. It wouldn't be fair from my perspective. I write here in public so that there cannot be a single doubt about me willing to exploit this "peculiar" Japanese situation.


Also, feel free to ask me whatever information, here or via PM, if you need more data or whatever for your questions to NYGiants and/or John regarding the MOD.
I'm quite responsive. And sometimes even quite sober.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Anachro

Culprit seems to be that BTS expands oil, etc. production across the board such as below. I'd imagine this is the same for HI/LI, etc.

Man I wanna play this mod for Japan!!!

If he quits I volunteer! [8D]

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Anachro
Doesn't seem like the Japanese supply/fuel starting situation is significantly worse than in Scenario 1.

While the initial supply is lower (by a paltry 40,000), the BTS added oil production + refineries in the HI will make some of this up quickly. Same with the higher HI and LI-both of these will produce supply too. No, Japan is not in dire straits in this scenario. Far from it.

[ny59giants]

Gentlemen,

HI - was increased in Home Islands to reflect a better prepared Japan per IJN influence. Manila and Java both have more when captured. But, with more HI at start, the more fuel and resources are needed. Never mind the use by the Fleet.

IJN - Is bigger and stronger, so more Naval Shipyards could be needed and thus more HI.

I'm not going to knock heads with those who do not like this mod for whatever reason - IJN fanboy wet dream, not realistic, Japan's economy too strong, etc.. I'm playing Allies and have just entered July 45. So, to some extent I've been play testing it and there have been newer versions to come out. John and I have made corrections along the way as Japan was too strong with initial versions. On some issues he overrules me as this is his mod (Jack and George being CV capable is a great example, but he has dialed that back on version being worked on now), I'm just here to give a more balanced approach especially from the Allied side. It may need more, but 'we' need input on how you would do so.

I'm changing China over to Big B's mod version, slowly, right now for the next version of BTS. Since this is my first time into '45 as Allies, I've added some more late war editing to help the Allies. Again, this mod is a work in progress and I may be the one who has gone the farthest as Allies. Still trying to find that balance that gets Japan into late '45 or even '46, maybe. For that to happen, more players have to take up a PBEM game and then send John and I feedback on what may need to be changed. We hope this next version is done by New Years. My opponent has played other PBEMs as Japan and I've asked for feedback which he has declined to offer, saying things are good.

I played as Japan into '43, but my Allied opponent quit as his CV/CVLs had been systematically sunk for almost two years. That version had refineries making supply which we took out afterwards. I was able to get CV capable Georges in too quickly which enabled me to wreck havoc.

[BillBrown]

You have hit upon one thing I think is a bit wonky and that is the CV capable Jacks and Georges. They end up being better than any CV capable air craft the USN gets. I am not sure that works well.
As you know I am not a basher of this series of mods, but a supporter.

[Anachro]

It's all well and good to state that HI, etc. is increased to reflect a better-planned war economy/industrial base by the Japanese; likewise, it's also fine to argue that an increased OOB requires greater shipyards (not of course getting into the real life problem of Japan's finite availability of space for ports).

However, it's another thing entirely to say for purposes of "balance" that to make these things work you should then significantly expand the native resource production of many areas. That is not possible, or plausible, and indeed goes against the spirit of trying to produce an alternate history to explain the developments in Japan's OOB/industrial capacity in the mod. Essentially, you are coming up with magically increased amounts of oil/resource production to compensate for increased HI/LI, etc. and thereby taking away the "tradeoff" of Japan/Yamamoto's decision to increase the OOB, to increase the industrial capacity, and more. Japan wants more HI? Fine, let it have it. It also wants a larger OOB? Sure, but with these decisions comes the ramifications that there is all the greater need for more resources/fuel transported back to the home islands, and, moreover, a simultaneous greater need for fuel for fleet operations abroad. This is the great tradeoff that should be happening as a result of the alternate history and the decisions made by the IJN/IJA in your mod. Instead, your mod lets Japan have its cake and eat it too, nullifying the justifiable consequences of its action/decisions.

That's my opinion from a theoretical standpoint at least. It's all well and good to of course do that and create an expanded resource base to make your strengthened Japan work. It's a mod, but it transforms the mod into completely fantasy by doing so and that should be stated on the mod page. Don't give us poppycock about the worse fuel/supply situation Japan is supposedly in.

[Anachro]

I hope you don't misunderstand me. I like a lot of the work of the mod and find it to be a very fun experience, but the expanded Japanese natural resource production is a bandaid that detracts from the economic/historical factors Japan should be facing as a result of its decision to increase industrial output and its OOB (and therefore the strain on its fuel).

[Bearcat2]

I like the mod overall; the G6's and the Liz's being an exception, scrap the G6's and give the Japanese 2 CVL or CV's that makes sense, Liz's should be more like an Emily than a B-29.
I also think the a/c R&D is a little much.
When I read the description of the scenario, thought the Japanese would have to ship more resources and oil to Japan to keep the industry running or they would run out earlier, the reality is different.

[Anachro]

ORIGINAL: Bearcat2

I like the mod overall; the G6's and the Liz's being an exception, scrap the G6's and give the Japanese 2 CVL or CV's that makes sense, Liz's should be more like an Emily than a B-29.
I also think the a/c R&D is a little much.

Luckily, these fixes are actually pretty simple to do yourself in the editor and I'd probably make my own version of the mod with such changes if they are still in the new release upcoming (and I was planning to play a new AAR with it). The economy stuff shouldn't be too hard either, though it might be annoying to do.

EDIT

John said he'd get the turn to me before heading to work, but that didn't seem to happen. He did say things would be spotty through Christmas, however. Bringing up My Dillworth's earlier post, he did in fact go off to do inventory tonight at his store! [:D]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

I suspect it's going to be a busy week at the store. Maybe even inventory

[JohnDillworth]

Let's see if we can even this mod out just a bit. Let's assume the Allies recognized the massively improved Japanese buildup and did the following: enhanced training exercises showed the problems with torpedoes and fixed it. US torpedoes are now reliablable. Essex, Fletcher's and DE's are accelerated a year. Coursiars replace Hellcats with the same production. TBF accelerated a year. Australian Army called home and based in Malaysia. Squadrans of Spitfires defend Singapore. P-40 production bumped 100 a month. Allies recognize Japan as a bigger threat and all heavy bomber production is sent to the Pacific. P-47's are now carrier capable. What have I missed?

[ITAKLinus]

Without any offence but here we are discussing something different: Japanese economy is depicted as much weaker/less resilient on MOD's webpage, while it's simply not true.

It's not a matter of liking or not the MOD, it's a matter of having players such as Anachro here, or the one who is playing against the Italian guy I mentioned in the topic, well, having all these players completely deceived by what's stated in MOD's webpage.


Just write that Japan has billions of oilfields more, HIs, etcetc and that it also has a fantasy wonderful fleet. Plus advanced a/c.
State simply that and clearly so that people don't risk to play 1 year and a half just to discover that whatever they have thought before regarding Japanese ability to cope with its increased assets is just rubbish.



What is being contested is the fact that one would expect a very different situation reading what they do read on MOD's page.

"Supply and fuel reserves start at a much reduced state. The Japanese MUST take the DEI as fast as possible!" is just a plain lie. There aren't many other possible interpretations.

Do you think 40.000 supplies is "a much reduced state" ?
Or that 3-400k less fuel is problematic?


The entire reasoning of "eh but Japan has more industry" has a huge fallacy since it doesn't also state that Japan can actually run this bigger industry thanks to an overwhelming increas in the number of oilfields.


These are not details. These elements completely change the game and feasible strategic approaches for the Allies.

For example, a strategy of cutting DEI oilfields in order to make the huge Japanese economy fall, it's simply not working. Or defending DEI more actively at the beginning to delay Japanese advance.
An Allied player would think it's logic to do so, given the impression that the Japanese economy is somehow more fragile and is pressed to conquer stuff around.

Also, having so many oilfields in Onshu has the major strategic outcome of protecting a strong source of OIL from any allied initiative for most of the game.


And I could continue for long.



The entire reasoning of NavShipyards presents, also, many fallacies. Nobody obliges you to produce everything you have in your shipyards and the higher amount of NavShipyards is not that crippling for Japanese economy. I am currently running wild with 1.700 NavShipyards in a Scen1 without major limitations. I bank 5.000 HI points per turn.






On a personal side, instead, I say that the biggest problems of the MOD, from my perspective, of course, are:
1 - Fantasy economy with no underlying reason to justify it.
2 - Japanese leadership has been optimised covering over 20 years before the start of the war. Allied leadership, no. It's quite reasonable to think that the general balance of power at 7-DEC wouldn't have been much different, had the Japanese changed their posture so much before the war. Basically, the Japanese, even supposing their industrial and technical possibility to do what's in the MOD, would have found themselves with a somehow similar balance of power due to corresponding reactions undertaken by US (and Commonwealth) leadership.





EDIT: has somebody thought that, given the industrial situation, Japan doesn't actually need to start a war? [:D][:D][:D][:D][:D][:D]
This would be a really funny alternative history...

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Let's see if we can even this mod out just a bit. Let's assume the Allies recognized the massively improved Japanese buildup and did the following: enhanced training exercises showed the problems with torpedoes and fixed it. US torpedoes are now reliablable. Essex, Fletcher's and DE's are accelerated a year. Coursiars replace Hellcats with the same production. TBF accelerated a year. Australian Army called home and based in Malaysia. Squadrans of Spitfires defend Singapore. P-40 production bumped 100 a month. Allies recognize Japan as a bigger threat and all heavy bomber production is sent to the Pacific. P-47's are now carrier capable. What have I missed?

+1

Haha. Now you're talking fantasy! And I love it.

This is exactly what will never happen because this isn't about creating a balanced playing field, it's about tipping that balance toward the Japanese for much longer than stock. It's to Dan's credit he slugged it out with John in this mod and stuck through to win handily.

Anachro is also in it for the long haul and I hope is given the opportunity to show that persistent strategic thinking will beat out tactical focused gameplay in the end. [;)]

[ITAKLinus]

Why not?

That would be a MOD I'd like to play: optimisation for 20 years for both sides. With no fantasy industrial base. It's also an easy calculations to do in Excel if you want to check how much Japan could have possibly produced given the game system. There are many approximations which have to be made, such as the relative percentage dedicated to IJN and how much Japanese economy would have been put on the war-foot before 7-dec, but it's not hard to do.

At that point, one could optimise Allied leadership as well, supposing they were just responding to Japanese increased threat.




I know it's far from anyone's point of view, but I find it a very interesting line of thought.




I post here since John shouldn't read: if you play allies only, please, don't remotely believe that the changes in the production could have gone unnoticed

[paullus99]

So, under the hood, John guaranteed that he’d be able to run his fantasy fleet 100% of the time, across 1/2 the planet, for years, without any real need to put extra effort into taking oil field which will already fall easily to his enhanced forces anyway?

Rationalizing Naval and air production is one thing, conjuring millions of barrels of oil out of thin air is something else - and giving Japan an economy newly equal to the US is something else entirely.

The War in Middle Earth is more realistic and balanced.