ORIGINAL: brian brian
ORIGINAL: composer99
the French, unfortunately, are unable to disrupt German command-and-control, which France determined was a key prerequisite for any attempted offensive action on land.
I sometimes think I won a game by making this die roll. The German player couldn't believe that I tried this, and then couldn't believe I made the die roll, but it was a 30% overall chance iirc. His plans for 1939 were instantly wiped out and he was off his game for the duration, though he eventually managed to launch a strong 1941 Barbarossa and the game really turned by all of the Allies in the middle years. But he never stopped commenting on this one die roll and 'luck'. Once you put that in the front of your thoughts, I think it influences your play. If your grand strategy can be stopped by a single opposing die roll - is that the perfect strategy?
I am always surprised that I don't see this happen more in AARs. There is zero point to strategic bombing Germany on the first turn when their HQs are in the west.
The German counter-measure is to deploy the AA unit with any HQs near the Rhine, though in 20% of games they don't have it.
In Collector's Edition, the pendulum swings to German advantage on using AA. Same 20% chance to not draw the mobile 88s, but Germany does have 2 Flak counters that can shoot at tactical air missions at half strength. Every modifier on the die might make a difference in World in Flames.
Wow, talk about letting yourself get off your game!
Realistically, as the French, I rather doubt I would have attempted an attack even if I had disorganised Rundstedt, but failing to do so certainly put paid even to entertaining the notion. What is more, I didn't really plan as Germany on fighting in Western Europe until 1940 anyway. A couple of years back I was regularly playing on Vassal with a few other fellows where it was habit to play with No ZoCs on surprise, which saw a lot of France-first games - but it also saw a lot of earlier US gear-ups and entry into the war, thanks to the edge those 1939 entry markers gave. I intended to manage US entry at least a little as the Axis, so trying to do stuff as much as possible in 1940 was the goal unless I had reason to wait until 1941.
All the same, the French succeeding on the ground strike against Rundstedt would have made at least some difference: with the RAF pinning down two of the units I regularly depend on as Germany for swiftly overrunning Denmark, it would have been put off at least until November/December, giving the Allies that much extra time to operate freely in the Baltic.
Edit to add: Also, now I come to think of it, if I had considered a first-turn attack on the Netherlands and/or Belgium, a successful French ground strike would obviously have put paid to it. In the event, the Allies successfully delayed any such attack with Rundstedt having to reorganise units on the Danish border instead of units along the Western Front.