Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesesteak v. RADM Yamaguchi

[Anachro]

The biggest benefit of a surprise push into North America is a surprise attack on Seattle can destroy a lot of potential CVEs. Or is it Portland? I forget.

[aaffins]

Portland...46 CVEs arrive there. That doesn't seem like much of a threat just now.

[aaffins]

May 1, 1942

Here is the advertised hit at Norfolk I. A Cheesesteak plan for sure, I thought this was a waste of perfectly good DDs. Shows what I know:

Night Time Surface Combat, near Norfolk Island at 113,170, Range 11,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
DMS W-13, Shell hits 8, and is sunk
DMS W-14, Shell hits 4, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
DMS W-15, Shell hits 10, and is sunk
DMS W-16, Shell hits 5, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
xAK Iburi Maru, Shell hits 19, and is sunk
xAK Yamagata Maru, Shell hits 7, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
xAK Tsukuba Maru, Shell hits 20, and is sunk
xAP Kashima Maru, Shell hits 12, heavy fires, heavy damage

Allied Ships
DD Fanning
DD Mahan, Shell hits 2

Japanese ground losses:
Vehicles lost 34 (18 destroyed, 16 disabled)

Allied Ships Reported to be Approaching!
Japanese TF suspends unloading operations and begins to get underway
Improved night sighting under 100% moonlight
Maximum visibility in Partly Cloudy Conditions and 100% moonlight: 11,000 yards
Range closes to 11,000 yards...

Kind of odd to see that many vehicles sunk and no squads lost for Japan. I would have to guess trucks for some construction units.

We hammer the 67th Naval Guards at Bethel again with 2Es from Anchorage.

Pakhoi falls as we predicted.

[CaptBeefheart]

Nice hit at Norfolk.

I'm sure you guys have thought of this, but the coastal cities (and Portland) all merit a decent garrison. You wouldn't want to permanently lose the Boeing plant in Seattle, Lockheed, Douglas and North American plants in LA or Consolidated in San Diego. There are a couple of AARs in the archives which show what can happen (Lowpe vs Jocmeister has an unsuccessful San Diego play and there's another one where Portland was successfully taken).

Do you gents have any interesting SigInt hits pointing to this possibility?

Cheers,
CB

[aaffins]

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

Nice hit at Norfolk.

I'm sure you guys have thought of this, but the coastal cities (and Portland) all merit a decent garrison. You wouldn't want to permanently lose the Boeing plant in Seattle, Lockheed, Douglas and North American plants in LA or Consolidated in San Diego. There are a couple of AARs in the archives which show what can happen (Lowpe vs Jocmeister has an unsuccessful San Diego play and there's another one where Portland was successfully taken).

Do you gents have any interesting SigInt hits pointing to this possibility?

Cheers,
CB

Absolutely nothing to suggest that. With all due respect to our opponent, I just think a move like that is way beyond his comfort zone. Even if he had hinted at that level of aggression, I don't think he needs to in order to achieve an auto vic. If I were him I'd be looking at places like New Zealand or Perth and/or trying to figure out how I was going to entrap all the forces we have at Townsville. That said, our strong impression is he's about done from an offensive perspective and is preparing to play some serious defense. I think his long term plan is to see if he can hold until '45.

[aaffins]

May 2, 1942

We've noticed recon showing ships in port at Rockhampton, so this:

Night Air attack on Rockhampton , at 95,152

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid spotted at 41 NM, estimated altitude 16,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-17E Fortress x 8

No Allied losses

Japanese Ships
PB Mikage Maru, Bomb hits 1, on fire

Opponent has tried all manner of softening up Wenchow with air raids and BBs rearming at Shanghai...nope:

Ground combat at Wenchow (89,58)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 43986 troops, 393 guns, 185 vehicles, Assault Value = 1622

Defending force 44665 troops, 193 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1615

Japanese adjusted assault: 609

Allied adjusted defense: 5224

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 8 (fort level 3)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), preparation(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
7133 casualties reported
Squads: 234 destroyed, 269 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 126 disabled
Engineers: 10 destroyed, 37 disabled
Guns lost 51 (6 destroyed, 45 disabled)
Vehicles lost 17 (1 destroyed, 16 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
943 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 91 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 10 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled

Assaulting units:
17th Ind.Mixed Brigade
22nd Division
17th Division
15th Division
8th Armored Car Co
4th Mortar Battalion

Defending units:
88th Chinese Corps
86th Chinese Corps
70th Chinese Corps
28th Chinese Corps
100th Chinese Corps
16th Construction Regiment
25th Group Army
10th Group Army
3rd War Area
32nd Group Army
14th Chinese Base Force

[aaffins]

May 3, 1942

Quiet turn. Lost a tanker to a sub off Perth.

First two regiments of the Americal Div. are one hex away from Melbourne.

He's pulled his ground forces back from just outside Townsville to Cairns. Recon actually suggests he's pulled out Cairns. We got a SigInt report that the 2nd ID was being pulled out of Rockhampton. Starting to wonder if this whole deal is an elaborate diversion.

Aus 6th ID arrives at Bundaberg, we've now got the Rockhampton attack boxed in between 1,000 AV at Townsville and 1,000 at Bundaberg. Approximately equally split between AIF and militia in each case.

[CaptBeefheart]

Interesting. Either he's going to do a tricky end run and attempt take Sydney, Melbourne or Wellington after you've moved your forces to NE Oz or he's going to pull back to a safer line of resistance (i.e. New Guinea). Sounds like the latter based on your assessment.

Cheers,
CB

[aaffins]

May 4, 1942

We sent the Argonaut to Luganville last week to cause trouble. Mission success:

TF 1 encounters mine field at Luganville (120,150)

Japanese Ships
BB Haruna, Mine hits 1

Seeing as that's TF 1, that's got to be the KB, right?

[Cheesesteak]

ORIGINAL: aaffins

May 4, 1942

We sent the Argonaut to Luganville last week to cause trouble. Mission success:

TF 1 encounters mine field at Luganville (120,150)

Japanese Ships
BB Haruna, Mine hits 1

Seeing as that's TF 1, that's got to be the KB, right?

I'd say so.

well worth the journey for that tidbit.

[GetAssista]

ORIGINAL: aaffins
TF 1 encounters mine field at Luganville (120,150)

Japanese Ships
BB Haruna, Mine hits 1

Seeing as that's TF 1, that's got to be the KB, right?

Hehe. Note to self - do not keep scenario start numbers for your important TFs

[aaffins]

Correct in theory, but the symmetry of having your most important TF be TF 1 is hard for me to resist.

[aaffins]

May 5, 1942

The big mystery we're wrestling with is this: You invade Cairns/Cooktown, you invade Rockhampton and then you do...nothing? Our opponent has dropped 4 infantry divisions, we believe, but hasn't really pushed out from there. Just taking those bases does very little, especially if he's not trying to establish air superiority. What's the long game here? Is there one?

A P-39 squadron flying from Townsville does decently against the Zeroes CAPing Cairns, 6 kills for 6 losses. We stand down and move to Charter Towers the day after.

An enemy TF arrives at Rockhampton...are they reinforcing or withdrawing troops? PTs head in to see if we can get lucky.

B-17s and B-25s flying from Sydney hit Lord Howe pretty hard. We identify at least one SNLF unit there.

Two regiments of the Americal division disembark at Melbourne and will rail to Bundaberg. 7th Aus Div has finished disembarking there and begins moving towards Rockhampton.

Lexington and Saratoga arrive and Pearl. They'll begin refits tomorrow.

Got some SigInt (and this was done to me in a previous game) that Wenchow is only occupied by one division (and another unit). Assembled 1,700 AV from the Changsha sector and sent them that way. They'll arrive tomorrow.

[BBfanboy]

Two thoughts on what he could be doing in NE Oz:
- he could be short of transport shipping to move in follow-up troops so the ones already landed have to do occupation garrison duties
- he intends to build the air bases and bomb Oz industry for the VPs. His Nells could probably reach Sydney from Bundaberg.

[CaptBeefheart]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Two thoughts on what he could be doing in NE Oz:
- he could be short of transport shipping to move in follow-up troops so the ones already landed have to do occupation garrison duties
- he intends to build the air bases and bomb Oz industry for the VPs. His Nells could probably reach Sydney from Bundaberg.

On #2, he's taking his sweet time on that if that's the objective. That's usually something you need to set up right away to be lucrative. Anyway, I have no better ideas. From one of the Coen Brothers' movies: Accept the mystery.

Cheers,
CB

[Cheesesteak]

https://imgur.com/gallery/zzHclpB

turns have slowed a bit. I'm guessing a bit of holiday prep on both sides of the fence.

[aaffins]

May 6, 1942

An interesting turn of events today, the enemy launches a large amphibious attack on Akyab.

4 CAs bombard and the 16th Div is landing with 6 BBs providing cover. He has some sort of CV support as well. Probably CVEs/CVLs. He takes out some small TFs on the coast, not concerned about the ships, but we'll take the plane kills.

Morning Air attack on TF, near Chittagong at 55,41

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid spotted at 37 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 13 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 22
D3A1 Val x 7

Allied aircraft
Hurricane I Trop x 6
P-39D Airacobra x 16

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-39D Airacobra: 2 destroyed

Allied Ships
AMc Patna, Bomb hits 2, and is sunk

Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Cox's Bazar at 54,43

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid spotted at 16 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 11
D3A1 Val x 14

Allied aircraft
Hurricane I Trop x 1

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
Hurricane I Trop: 1 destroyed

Allied Ships
xAK Baroda, Bomb hits 4, and is sunk
xAKL Nordhval, Bomb hits 4, and is sunk

Amphibious Assault at Akyab (54,45)

TF 5 troops unloading over beach at Akyab, 54,45

Japanese ground losses:
861 casualties reported
Squads: 3 destroyed, 150 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 47 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 66 (0 destroyed, 66 disabled)
Vehicles lost 72 (0 destroyed, 72 disabled)

19 troops of a IJA Infantry Squad lost from landing craft during unload of 16th Div
8 Engineers accidentally lost during unload of 3rd Ind. Engr Rgt
19 troops of a IJA Infantry Squad lost in surf during unload of 16th Div /4
19 troops of a IJA Infantry Squad lost from landing craft during unload of 16th Div /5

In Australia two USAAF squadrons sweep Rockhampton:

Morning Air attack on Rockhampton , at 95,152

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid spotted at 30 NM, estimated altitude 23,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 10 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 36

Allied aircraft
P-40E Warhawk x 22

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-40E Warhawk: 5 destroyed

Morning Air attack on Rockhampton , at 95,152

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid spotted at 35 NM, estimated altitude 23,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 11 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 31

Allied aircraft
P-400 Airacobra x 23

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-400 Airacobra: 2 destroyed

Intel is saying we took down 20 Zeroes today, in exchange for 18 USAAF fighters. Hard to say exactly where the losses are.

In China he's figured out our Wuchang gambit and bombs heavily. We'll bombard tomorrow.

On the Burmese/Indian coast 3 USAAF squadrons from Chittagong will sweep Akyab and a few Vildebeasts are loaded with torps. No bombard attack, so not sure what the balance of grounds forces is as yet. We have the 1st Burmese Div at Akyab along with some odds and ends that add up to slightly less than 400 AV. No forts unfortunately...never fully repaired after we trashed the place last month chasing out the IJA paratroops. 17th Indian and 70th Brit move south from Chittagong.

[Cheesesteak]

Supreme Command is currently convening at a recently captured German restaurant.

[aaffins]

May 7, 1942

The newly captured restaurant makes a fine spatzle and has a pleasing kolsh on draft. Morale +5

At the mouth of the Bass Strait an I-both sinks a loaded freighter, luckily for us it was just carrying some of the Americal Division's trucks.

A second I-boat sights the BB Warspite in the same area, but is punished by her escorts. I think these sightings must be a tempting target for the KB, which we presume is in the vicinity of Luganville.

Two critical convoys are two hexes from Melbourne, so should be safe. One contains the remainder of the Americal and couple USMC units we're transferring from NZ. The second has two fresh US Army regiments from the West Coast as well as a variety of support units.

No action in the air today, I can't fathom why he's not trying to gain air superiority.

6th Aus Div rolls out of Bundaberg to lay siege to Rockhampton.

In Burma none of our planned sweeps fly, but our Vildebeasts do with no escort...results are predictable, however we get some surprising info on the enemy's carrier composition:

Morning Air attack on TF, near Akyab at 54,45

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 5,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 13 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 35
Ki-43-Ia Oscar x 8
Ki-43-Ib Oscar x 11
Ki-43-Ic Oscar x 28

Allied aircraft
Vildebeest III x 5

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
Vildebeest III: 2 destroyed
Vildebeest III: 1 destroyed by flak

CAP engaged:
Junyo-1 with A6M2 Zero (4 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(7 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
4 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 10000.
Raid is overhead
Hiyo-1 with A6M2 Zero (3 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(5 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
3 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 10000.
Raid is overhead
Hosho-1 with A6M2 Zero (2 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(4 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
2 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 10000.
Raid is overhead
11th Sentai with Ki-43-Ic Oscar (8 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
8 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 10000.
Raid is overhead
59th Sentai with Ki-43-Ia Oscar (8 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
8 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 10000.
Raid is overhead
64th Sentai with Ki-43-Ib Oscar (11 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
11 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 10000.
Raid is overhead
77th Sentai with Ki-43-Ic Oscar (13 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
13 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 10000.
Raid is overhead
260th Sentai with Ki-43-Ic Oscar (7 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
7 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 10000.
Raid is overhead
Taiyo-1 with A6M2 Zero (13 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
13 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 10000.
Raid is overhead
Unyo-1 with A6M2 Zero (13 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
13 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 10000.
Raid is overhead

In order to have Junyo, Hiyo and Unyo already available he must have done some fairly significant acceleration of his shipbuilding. Must have cost him a lot of HI points to do that.

CL Nagara and some DDs bombard Chittagong to good effect, five planes lost and runway damage at 55%:

Naval bombardment of Chittagong at 55,41 - Coastal Guns Fire Back!

Allied aircraft
no flights

Allied aircraft losses
P-40E Warhawk: 19 damaged
P-40E Warhawk: 1 destroyed on ground
P-39D Airacobra: 40 damaged
Blenheim IV: 30 damaged
Blenheim IV: 1 destroyed on ground
Beaufort I: 9 damaged
Catalina I: 13 damaged
PBY-4 Catalina: 10 damaged
PBY-4 Catalina: 1 destroyed on ground
Hurricane I Trop: 5 damaged
Fulmar II: 2 damaged

2 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Japanese Ships
CL Nagara
DD Yunagi
DD Asanagi
DD Hayate
DD Oite
DD Hatakaze
DD Asagumo
DD Yamagumo
DD Natsugumo
DD Arashio

Allied ground losses:
10 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Light Industry hits 1
Manpower hits 2
Resources hits 1
Fires 126
Airbase hits 30
Airbase supply hits 5
Runway hits 64
Port hits 5

He does not appear to have sufficient ground units to capture Akyab:

Ground combat at Akyab (54,45)

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 725 troops, 74 guns, 51 vehicles, Assault Value = 260

Defending force 9585 troops, 86 guns, 216 vehicles, Assault Value = 382

Allied ground losses:
43 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 4 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Assaulting units:
16th Division
3rd Ind. Engineer Regiment
8th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
1st Medium Field Artillery Regiment
20th Ind. Mtn Gun Battalion
15th Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion
11th JAAF Base Force

Defending units:
7th Hussars Regiment
3rd Carabiniers Regiment
BFF Brigade
1st Burma Division
1st Burma Auxiliary AA Regiment
3rd Indian Coastal Artillery Regiment
Pathan Construction Battalion

In China our Wuchang gambit fails, he has two full divisions so we barely have a 2:1 advantage. Not a good idea in urban terrain. Back to Changsha we go. Nothing ventured, nothing gained.

[Cheesesteak]

Our opponent’s internet is down, plenty of family and holiday related stuff to be done anyway