How much to evacuate-280 AP and 170 HI are enough

[EwaldvonKleist]

The common reference numbers for how much industry the Soviet Union should evacuate is "enough to have 300 armament industry points and 200 heavy industry points in the end".
But how low can one really go without running into short and long term shortages?
To answer the quesion, I have analysed data from a number of games with methodology described in the attached .pdf

The results are: 280 AP and 170 HI should be enough, which are considerable lower than the older numbers, leaving the Soviet player more rail capacity for vehicle and aircraft factories and to move units and allowing him to retreat faster than before.

Having more than 280 AP has the advantage of shortening the time of the typical armament shortages in late 1941/early 1942, but 280 should allow to have enough armaments from mid 1942 onwards.

For more information and analysis, please read the attached document. Discussions and sharing of own experience are encouraged.

Finally, thanks to all the poeple who shared data from their games, and to Telemecus who proof-read and discussed the document with me.

Analysis

[Crackaces]

The 8MP game ended turn 65 with 261 AP's with a pool of 264K, 160 HI pool 0, But the limiting factor was manpower at 1915. Soon to go down another 50 .. So would not these calculations depend on manpwer to build units? Or is the stipulation if manpower goes below a certain level .. well resigning is a better valor [8D]

[Telemecus]

I know I discussed with EwaldvonKleist if it was possible to create a figure of average arms points needed per million incremental army manpower. Essentially arms points consumed divided by the sum of the change in OOB manpower and Soviet losses. So you could judge how many arms points you would need by how big an army you need and how much you lost. As ever the constraint is data.

As Crackaces says if you do need many more arms factories to arm the many extra men you are going to lose, you are probably losing anyway! At least on turn 0 my guess is these are the best numbers you can aim for in an envelope of possibilities where you can still win?

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: Telemecus

I know I discussed with EwaldvonKleist if it was possible to create a figure of average arms points needed per million incremental army manpower. Essentially arms points consumed divided by the sum of the change in OOB manpower and Soviet losses. So you could judge how many arms points you would need by how big an army you need and how much you lost. As ever the constraint is data.

As Crackaces says if you do need many more arms factories to arm the many extra men you are going to lose, you are probably losing anyway! At least on turn 0 my guess is these are the best numbers you can aim for in an envelope of possibilities where you can still win?

I might propose the following: (And I invite Soviet Fan Boys to comment).

Milestone #1 is 6.1M. That represents the forces required to stabilize the front
Milestone #2 is 7M. That represents the manpower and forces to push the Germans around with resistance.
Milestone #3 is 8M and above. That represents the manpower level required to steamroll the Germans.

At mile stone #3 the Soviets start disbanding units because they do not have enough command points to effectively deploy the units and the resources are better transferred into better Guards units.

Given this is true -- then there are some ARM's points and HI points levels required to support these milestones? Does 280/170 meet the demands for milestone #3?

[Telemecus]

ORIGINAL: Crackaces
Milestone #3 is 8M and above. That represents the manpower level required to steamroll the Germans.

For the Stelteck versus Stef78 game on turn 180 that EwaldvonKleist uses in the analysis you can scrape figures from their AAR here tm.asp?m=4280532 . For the timmyab versus smokindaave some figures are available on tm.asp?m=4133018

Stelteck vs Stef78 (Axis win)
T180 Soviet OOB = 8.7mn
T178 Soviet Losses = 12.5mn, T182 Soviet Losses 12.9mn

timmyab vs SmokinDave (Soviet win)
T182 Soviet OOB = 8.9mn
T193 Soviet Losses = 11.2mn

So both do easily get to milestone #3 easily on or before T180. Both are well within the estimates of EwaldvonKleist

[EwaldvonKleist]

@Crackaces:

The 8MP game ended turn 65 with 261 AP's with a pool of 264K, 160 HI pool 0

The HI pool is always, in every game and for every side, 0. What matters are the supply stores on the right side of the screen. The Soviet side had a comfortable reserve of over 1 million points there.

The 280/170 is supposed to support 8mio men and more.
In the case of the timmyab game, the army was considerably larger than that for some time.

Btw., I take no liability for any Soviet soldier having no food or weapon due to using the above numbers [:D]

The necessary arm/HI figures of course vary from game to game. On another forum, there was a game between new players where the Soviets stopped the Wehrmacht very much in the west, but suffered repeated encirclements in 1941 and 1942. The huge manpower supply and the huge demand for replacements to rebuild the destroyed units caused an AIP need of over 350. So you can sometimes use more industry, but for standard games between experienced players, the above numbers appear to be what is needed.


I will also attach the data/spreadsheets of the analysed games which have already ended to the first post.

[joelmar]

Quite a nice piece of work and very interesting, thanks

[xhoel]

Thanks for your work gentlemen, it is appreciated as always. Good to hear that the new system gives more leeway to the Soviets but too bad that it takes the capturing of the industry out of the equation. I always thought that that was a great part of the game that added flavor and forced you to make certain strategic choices.

[Colbert]

Great knowledge! Thank you!

[topeverest]

Just reading this. maybe I didn't over evacuate...

[Vifee]

If you were to "overevacuate" HI or Arms, which would be better?

[Telemecus]

At a guess arms. Even on these figures you are going to have a "road bump" end of 1941 beginning of 1942 with too little arms for recreating the army - a shortage that will go. By increasing the number of arms factories you could reduce it or avoid that completely. But you would need more rail capacity in later years to re-evacuate the arms factories to stop them consuming the supplies you want to see go to your army.

[EwaldvonKleist]

As Telemecus says, arms. Re-evacuating later will need rail capacity but late war you will not be consistently short of this resource so it is not a problem.

[Model1950]

ORIGINAL: EwaldvonKleist

@Crackaces:

The 8MP game ended turn 65 with 261 AP's with a pool of 264K, 160 HI pool 0

The HI pool is always, in every game and for every side, 0. What matters are the supply stores on the right side of the screen. The Soviet side had a comfortable reserve of over 1 million points there.

The 280/170 is supposed to support 8mio men and more.
In the case of the timmyab game, the army was considerably larger than that for some time.

Btw., I take no liability for any Soviet soldier having no food or weapon due to using the above numbers [:D]

The necessary arm/HI figures of course vary from game to game.
On another forum, there was a game between new players where the Soviets stopped the Wehrmacht very much in the west, but suffered repeated encirclements in 1941 and 1942.
The huge manpower supply and the huge demand for replacements to rebuild the destroyed units caused an AIP need of over 350. So you can sometimes use more industry,
but for standard games between experienced players, the above numbers appear to be what is needed.


I will also attach the data/spreadsheets of the analysed games which have already ended to the first post.

What few games I have played so far getting AP below 300 seems easy as Germany.
I have several games past winter as Germany and Russia, the key seems to be how good or bad things go during blizzard combined with 300+/-.
A poorly played German blizzard will wipeout any AP advantaged gained during the 41 summer. Same going for the Russian player, but the German player seems to have far more to do with blizzard then Russian player.

[EwaldvonKleist]

Getting the Sov player below 300 AIP may or may not be easy but unless it causes and actual shortage of APs it has zero effect. I cannot comment on 1.12 but before losing the game HIP/AIP wise before losing it manpower wise required avoidable Soviet mistakes. So in most cases the damage done to Soviet regenation potential comes down to manpower and special industry losses inflicted.

You seem to play quickly and well-given the new version needs testing feedback I suggest posting a few AARs!

[Model1950]

ORIGINAL: EwaldvonKleist

Getting the Sov player below 300 AIP may or may not be easy but unless it causes and actual shortage of APs it has zero effect. I cannot comment on 1.12 but before losing the game HIP/AIP wise before losing it manpower wise required avoidable Soviet mistakes. So in most cases the damage done to Soviet regenation potential comes down to manpower and special industry losses inflicted.

You seem to play quickly and well-given the new version needs testing feedback I suggest posting a few AARs!

I closely track things, but the only 1.12 game to go into 42 I had Russian player down to 230ish AP. He was unable to do much during blizzard even with a good size army. His army quickly fell apart early summer 42.

I will consider a 1.12.03 AAR if it gets into 42 that's close to historical. Seems like a waste of time to post games that are over with in 20 turns.

[Telemecus]

I posted an AAR for a game that was over in 3 turns https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4639282 [:D]

So why not? It would be more than 6 times longer than that one!

[Model1950]

ORIGINAL: Telemecus

I posted an AAR for a game that was over in 3 turns https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4639282 [:D]

So why not? It would be more than 6 times longer than that one!

Yes your is 6x shorter [:)]

[EwaldvonKleist]

Not trying to pressure you but short AARs being a waste of time is nonsense IMO. Quickly won games are often interesting because of skilled play shown.

[joelmar]

@model1950

I would be very curious to see how you do it and how it goes. How long does it take you to do a turn? Myself, I can't get a full turn done under 10-12 hours and only played about 30 turns during the time you did all those games! lol!