Yugoslavia diplomacy seems pointless for Axis

[Treefrog]

On balance with 5 Axis diplomatic chips in play at all times from September 1, 1939 it seems (to this non math guy) that Yugoslavia will only move about 44% (to aggregate of 89%) before DE 104 kicks in starting February 24, 1941. This will cost the Axis about 500 mpps plus the opportunity cost of receiving no income from Yugoslavia if it is conquered/occupied prior to February 1941 (typically it is).

Although an earlier writer extolled the value of turning Yugoslavia with diplomacy and receiving use of their infantry corps [and presumably not having to have the two garrisons], the math suggests that with average luck it is very unlikely that Yugoslavia will join the Axis before the coup that has a 50% chance of arriving after February 24, 1941 and presumably every turn thereafter.*

Have you ever seen Yugoslavia join the Axis due to diplomacy?


*I acknowledge that a writer also noted that Yugoslavia was still neutral in December 1942, but I don't know if the Allied player activated DE 104.

[lwarmonger]

Fairly consistently if you invest enough in it. But you have to use italy and japan as well. Just Germany gets you to 25% a turn. You really need to get to 55% a turn using Japan and italy as well. It isnt a meta... you can go either way and be fine.

[Treefrog]

lwarmonger, as I read it 3 German chits at 5% per chit = 15%; if Axis uses 5 chits (from any source at a cost of 250 mpps) Axis gets one a chance of 25% of either 4-8% (75% likelihood) or 12-24% (25% likelihood).

Am I missing the math here? (not uncommon)

When you say "fairly consistently" do you mean Yugoslavia "fairly consistently" joins the Axis before the 1941 coup?

[lwarmonger]

5 German, 3 italian, 3 Japanese chits gets you to 55% a turn. If I am doing this I normally do it after the low countries are conquered in late 39 early 40. Doing that, you can fairly consistently get Yugoslavia.

If you arent willing to go all in like that, it really isnt worth it.

Edit: and by "fairly consistently I mean it is possible to get Yugoslavia to join the axis before the coup in 1941... although it is kind of a coin toss if the allies put MPPs in to stop you. Unlike spain or Turkey, Yugoslavia doesnt really give you much by entering on your side though. Those other two give you fairly good geography in addition to resources and units and not having to occupy them.

[lwarmonger]

Rule of thumb is usually pick your preference... spain and turkey, or yugoslavia and turkey. Going for all usually doesnt work.

[sn0wball]

You have to be fast with Yugoslawia, because it is really frustrating to have them turn Allied by Event with you having turned them by 95%. It is even more frustrating to see them having the same number of units and partisans after you invaded them. One would think that all this diplomacy might sway some units to your side.

I feel that this investment, while big, is absolutely worth it. You get quite few units from Yugoslawia and are spared the need of garrisoning the area.

[smckechnie]

I have seen Yugoslavia become axis fairly often in a number of games if the axis player wants that play diplomatically.

It does seem to me that the Yugoslavian forces are better at fighting than the Turkish or Spanish forces. Strategically though, it makes more sense to me to be going after Spain or Turkey.

[Treefrog]

Thank you all for sharing.

Question: where all three Axis powers contribute diplomatic chits, if Yugoslavia goes Axis, what country does it align with/contribute MPPS to?

My sneaking suspicion is that diplomatic chits are resolved one at a time which then allows a specific Axis country to claim responsibility for turning Yugo to Axis and claim Yugo as a minor.

But then, what Axis country claims Yugo is the switch is the result of the 1-5% automatic increase when Yugo reaches 90%?

[amandkm]

Yugo goes to Germany.

[Treefrog]

Thank you amandkm.

Have you observed this yourself or is it an intelligent guess?

[lwarmonger]

Yugoslavia always goes to Germany. Every game it has turned for me it has gone that way.

[sPzAbt653]

All Minors have Parents set in the Editor. Yugoslavia's Parent is Germany. So even if Germany put zero diplomacy into Yugo, if Yugo joins the Axis, Yugo goes to Germany.