Notes from a Small Island

[Canoerebel]

1/19/46 and 1/20/46

There are increasing indications that the Japanese economy is hurting and that Erik is limited in what he can do. He's not counterattacking anywhere, even as the Allies begin new offensives that offer him some opportunities. But he could be marshalling what's needed for a massive counterstrike should DS or other major assets blunder into his "wheelhouse."

Hokkaido: The Allied invasion of Bihoro goes well. First attack drops forts to 7. Supply malus for the enemy is a surprise - Erik apparently can't afford to provide for at least this part of the Home Islands. I think the base will fall in a week. Just to the west, Allied armor has reached Asahikawa in force. That base could well fall tomorrow. The next target is Sapporo. It appears that the bulk of the enemy defenses are mixed brigades. No sign of Erik reinforcing.

China: I think big-denominator Chengtu will fall tomorrow. First probing attack by single armored unit showed 7 forts at Canton and a supply malus - and the enemy suffered higher casualties. And Wuchow will be under seige inside a week.

Strategic Bombing: Suddenly, Allied escorts (mainly P-51H models) and 4EB are tearing up the same kinds of enemy fighters that gave them fits. There's a reason for the change, but I can't pinpoint it on the information I have at hand. Too many possibilities. Japanese industry is toast from Okayama west (south, true) and from Iwaki east (north, true). Only the Tokyo-to-Kobe corridor is in good shape. Once I have airfields within range (Sapporo, Hakodate, etc.), the bombers will look there.

Victory: It's likely that Japan will fall by the end of February. Currently the Allies are about 15.5k from AV, but a bunch of high-value bases will fall over the next seven days.

[BillBrown]

To me, the thing that would change in the air war is pilot quality. He may not have been able to keep up with the demand of training his pilots.
I am unsure if training pilots uses supply, anyone know about this?

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: BillBrown

To me, the thing that would change in the air war is pilot quality. He may not have been able to keep up with the demand of training his pilots.
I am unsure if training pilots uses supply, anyone know about this?

I think a certain amount of supply is deducted for the avgas, but not as much as a combat sortie or other mission. You probably know that HI points are consumed during pilot training.

[RangerJoe]

Also, how many of his excellent early war pilots are left? There may not be enough and he may be saving some for a last gasp. At least, he is not giving up.

[Canoerebel]

Air losses on both sides have been extremely heavy the past year, due to the strategic bombing campaign. But here's the thing - Erik has flown zero offensive missions in that time, so all of his losses have been over his bases. So I think his pilot losses have to be pretty modest.

[Bearcat2]

CAP & Search require 1/3 of a supply point to fly; for the rest, you need double the supply needs of the BASE [1pt/escort;bombers depending upon bomb load] to fly any offensive mission.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Bearcat2

CAP & Search require 1/3 of a supply point to fly; for the rest, you need double the supply needs of the BASE [1pt/escort;bombers depending upon bomb load] to fly any offensive mission.

The original question was about supply needs for training. I am sure Alfred said there was some - perhaps 1/10th of what would be required for a mission (assuming training at 0 range).

[HansBolter]

If the training involves actually flying the planes then it seems reasonable for training to use the same amount of supply as CAP and search. The planes, with pilots rotating, would be in the air all day long.

If you are training pilots in a squadron with no aircraft, meaning that training is all in the classroom, then no supply should be used.

[Canoerebel]

1/23/46

Hokkaido: Like the Confederacy in February 1865 - teetering, all but finished, but no doubt able to strike out in desperation when the time comes. Under an onslaught by bombers unopposed and powerful armies, and out of supply, the Japanese cave at Bihoro and in the woods north of Asahikawa. The Allies will reach Sapporo over the next few turns. Erik might not stand there. Even if he does, it's doomed to fall within a week to ten days. Then the Allied strategic bombing campaign will commence against Tokyo and Maebashi.

[Canoerebel]

1/23/46

China: It's April 1, 1865, in Virginia. There is no hope for the Japanese. There are scattered pockets, but the Japanese are out of supply, unable to attack, out of options, out of luck. The Allies will pick off the remaining points centers and harvest several thousand points by reducing the tattered remnants of the massive Japanese army. A large part of the Allied army is already on the move to Korea or to Shanghai, in preparation for pending offensives.

[Canoerebel]

1/23/46

Victory Points: Allies are 12.5k from auto-victory. Originally, I had hoped they'd be at this point by the end of January, so things are progressing better than anticipated.

I think the Allies can still gain about 5k points for bases, about 2k to 4k for destruction of the massive, isolated, out of supply enemy armies in China and on Hokkaido, leaving the balance mostly to Strategic Bombing.

Erik is quietly playing without complaint. The end game can't be fun. In fact, this probably hasn't been fun for him in at least six to eight months. It'll be merciful to bring it to a close.

I think the end will come by mid- or late-February. Before then, the Allies are likely to invade the Ryukus and Pescadores and may invade Moppo.

[T Rav]

"I will be Merciful" sounds like the Gorn!

[Capt. Harlock]

It's April 1, 1865, in Virginia.

So where do you think your Five Forks will be?

[Canoerebel]

Actually, we're past Five Forks in China. We're past Farmington. Ewell has surrendered. It's over. Just rounding up and herding the tattered enemy remnants now.

[jwolf]

Who are the light blue guys moving into Canton?

[HansBolter]

Free French are light blue.

Kiwis are darker blue.

[Canoerebel]

1/28/46

Striving for Victory: Allies took Canton and Wuchow today, basically finishing Japan in Asia, except for Hong Kong and southern Korea. Allies need about 11k to achieve AV, which is slightly ahead of the expected score estimated a few weeks back. But it'll be a bit tougher to score big base points for the next week or so, unless Sapporo falls sooner than expected.

[Canoerebel]

1/28/46

Hokkaido: Siege of Sapporo ongoing - a big base with uber forts, but already the Allies have achieved a 1:1, dropping forts to 8. Lots more Allied units to arrive in coming days.

[Canoerebel]

1/28/46

Okinawa and China: D-Day at Naha went seamlessly, with opening attack tomorrow. One enemy division there. The Allies have three good divisions, lots of armor, arty and combat engineers, and a lot of reserve units, if needed.

There was a time, as recently as two months ago, where I wondered if Allied moves here and on Hokkaido would trigger massive enemy counterattacks. THus far, Erik is quiet. I think that's due to his supply situation more than anything else.

[RangerJoe]

I think that Ishigaki between Okinawa and Formosa has a naval fortress unit of some sort. In case you did not know that.