OT - The New Coronavirus

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Zorch

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Zorch
But don't ask me when...

When? [:'(]

Are you asking When you can ask me When the markets will come back up? If so, yes.

OK. When can I ask you when the markets will come back up?

[Zorch]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Zorch

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy




When? [:'(]

Are you asking When you can ask me When the markets will come back up? If so, yes.

OK. When can I ask you when the markets will come back up?

About 2 weeks after they do.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Zorch
About 2 weeks after they do.

After they do what?

[Zorch]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Zorch
About 2 weeks after they do.

After they do what?

After they come back up.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Zorch

After they come back up.

OK. Then what?

[Zap]

The usual suspects leading us down a path of no end. [:D]

[Lobster]

ORIGINAL: Zap

The usual suspects leading us down a path of no end. [:D]

Every path has an end and we all live to see it. [;)]

[Zorch]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Zorch

After they come back up.

OK. Then what?

Then you sell at a fat profit $$$, if you so choose.

You have used 4 questions. You have 16 remaining. Do you want to buy a vowel?

[RFalvo69]

The story today, beside the roof coming down on the markets, is that you could have already had the Coronavirus without knowing. It manifests itself as a strong flu. I had a strong flu right when the panic was starting in China, back at the end of January.

Then again, there are two kinds of flu still around beside the Coronavirus: the usual one with fever, cough and a cold, and a gastro-intestinal one. If you get the latter you at least know that it is not THE PLAGUE. If you get the former (the one I had)... well, now you must be checked. This adds to the workload of the scientists.

Also, let's not forget how people still get sick from other aliments, babies are being born and so on. But yesterday there was a story on ANSA (the Italian news service) about how hospitals are filled up by Coronavirus cases - either real or suspected - and non-containment areas are being transformed in containment ones. Where this leaves people with other aliments, I don't know.

[Erik Rutins]

I help care for my late 70s/early 80s parents and I'm very concerned because not only does this virus have Spanish Flu-level mortality on average, but it's 15-20% mortality for folks like them with elderly immune systems and other health issues. My biggest concern is that folks are treating this like it's just another flu or a bad cold and thus will not try to contain it or stop it, but just blow it off. If this spreads widely, it will be like the Spanish Flu and kill millions of people across all ages, though mostly older folks. This is potentially IMHO a once a century pandemic, if we take it too lightly. I see it as frankly requiring a wartime-level effort and seriousness to avoid wartime-level casualties.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/28/bill-ga ... hogen.html

[Erik Rutins]

Also, this is worth keeping in mind:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalcy_bias

[Lobster]

It worrisome that three new cases have presented themselves on the West Coast. One in California, one in Oregon and one in the state of Washington and none of these people have been in contact with anyone who might spread the virus so it is out there in the general population. WTF? It's like someone is moving it up the coast in just one day. [8|]

Me and my wife are in the age range where we need to be highly aware. But we are someplace where we have suffered over a week of no power and no way to move around a few times so we are always prepared for a month of confinement. At this point not sure if that is enough. Whether or not a specific area will be hit hard is not predictable. I'm not going to sit with my thumb up my butt hoping it will all go away and not affect us. We will use whatever we have anyway so no harm in stocking up a little more that we will use anyway. [;)]

[Erik Rutins]

The reason these are just now appearing all at once is because we just now were able to do broader testing. Let's hope these outbreaks turn out to be of a manageable size.

[RFalvo69]

What I think is that the World leaders underestimated the seriousness of the problem, and now they are behind in the "decision cycle" (as dictated by the evolving events).

I know that this borders politics but I'm not pointing fingers or making names. I'm simply more and more convinced that this virus is always one step ahead the measures taken to fight/contain it. Like in any struggle, when you only react you end up losing.

I'm still convinced that to fight the Coronavirus the most powerful weapons are good info and common sense. True, it is scary, but the basics are actually simple: wash (and disinfect) your hands, don't touch your or others' face before doing that, monitor your temperature and warn the officials in your country if you do suspect you have gotten it (try not to panic - your temperature can go up simply because you are tired; again, use your head).

And protect/isolate the people that can be hit the hardest: the elderly and those with a compromised immune system.

True, almost one-hundred thousand people around the World got this bug. For some reason, the follow up is never mentioned: almost all of them are not dying. The highest projection is a 2% mortality - and most of it in the above mentioned vulnerable part of the population. I lost hope to read/hear the words "...however 98% of the afflicted will recover".

I don't want to minimise the situation. It is scary, but the confusing and sometimes contradictory declarations coming right now by public officials don't fight the scare, only enhance it.

My parents live in a good hospice, which is under severe lockdown. I can agree with that: having a sick person in a place with 90+ people over 80 would be like throwing a light match in a pool of gasoline. Then I speak again with my daughter in Milan and she describes me a ghost city. Gathering places are closed, the streets are empty of people, disinfectant gel (usually 1 Euro over the counter) is sold by shady people in shady corners at 10-20 Euro; she told me that she was not making it up and I believe her. She had to take a cab, and the usually busy streets are so empty that she paid half the usual fare.

But now hear this: she is in Lombardy, in the middle of one of the hottest zones on Earth (we are told) - and she can't name a single person hit by the Coronavirus. Not one of her fellow students, not one of her friends, not her grocer, not the cab driver, not the brother-in-law of a friend's dentist. No one. She told me "Should I decide to try how this bug is, I wouldn't know how to do it." (she was always the creative one).

Now the economy is collapsing, worse than after 9/11 and the 2008 meltdown. This scares me more than the bug, because (if I understood correctly how this little bastard acts) we are yet to see the worst of it in terms of diffusion; which is, unfortunately, the only thing that does seem to matter.

[Zap]

Maybe some time in the near future when all the politics and fears are dealt with because we have handled this virus. There can actually be a clear definition as to what the virus is capable of doing, more concrete facts to belay fears. In the meantime the uncertainty about it fans speculation (true or false) and is capable of destroying an economy. I sure hope it does not come to that.
But seeing the panic the Corona virus has produced it maybe we are headed for a dark economic turn.

[nicwb]

But seeing the panic the Corona virus has produced it maybe we are headed for a dark economic turn.

That's probably right - on it's own COVID-19 won't destroy the economy. But it could give it a fairly hard knock. It may simply depend on what underlying problems the economy currently has and how well/badly people adapt. For instance the Black Death in the 14th century literally decimated the European agricultural economy. But it did not completely destroy it. The problem - not enough workers left to farm the feudal estates. The solution -wages rose markedly due to the shortage of labor. Landlords and feudal estates probably had to swallow the losses or at least renegotiate with their tenants until the population became greater.

[Zorch]

ORIGINAL: nicwb

But seeing the panic the Corona virus has produced it maybe we are headed for a dark economic turn.

That's probably right - on it's own COVID-19 won't destroy the economy. But it could give it a fairly hard knock. It may simply depend on what underlying problems the economy currently has and how well/badly people adapt. For instance the Black Death in the 14th century literally decimated the European agricultural economy. But it did not completely destroy it. The problem - not enough workers left to farm the feudal estates. The solution -wages rose markedly due to the shortage of labor. Landlords and feudal estates probably had to swallow the losses or at least renegotiate with their tenants until the population became greater.

There's no comparison with the Black Death. That killed 25 or 30% of the population in Europe over several years (1346-1350). No one (and I mean absolutely no one) is suggesting COVID-19 will have anything more than 2% mortality. The economic impact will be short-lived; IMHO a year from now we'll be where we were before COVID-19. A better comparison (for economic effect) might be severe flu outbreaks, such as the 1957 and 1968 flu.

[Mobius]

ORIGINAL: Lobster
It worrisome that three new cases have presented themselves on the West Coast. One in California, one in Oregon and one in the state of Washington and none of these people have been in contact with anyone who might spread the virus so it is out there in the general population. WTF? It's like someone is moving it up the coast in just one day. [8|]

Well the one in Solano is a couple miles from Travis AFB were a bunch of patients were housed. So somehow something got out. The other cases I don't know. Is there a coronavirus Mary out there?

Anyways, laying in a supply of canned food may not be a bad idea. You will have to make fewer trips to a place where people gather together.

[Zap]

ORIGINAL: Zorch

ORIGINAL: nicwb

But seeing the panic the Corona virus has produced it maybe we are headed for a dark economic turn.

That's probably right - on it's own COVID-19 won't destroy the economy. But it could give it a fairly hard knock. It may simply depend on what underlying problems the economy currently has and how well/badly people adapt. For instance the Black Death in the 14th century literally decimated the European agricultural economy. But it did not completely destroy it. The problem - not enough workers left to farm the feudal estates. The solution -wages rose markedly due to the shortage of labor. Landlords and feudal estates probably had to swallow the losses or at least renegotiate with their tenants until the population became greater.

There's no comparison with the Black Death. That killed 25 or 30% of the population in Europe over several years (1346-1350). No one (and I mean absolutely no one) is suggesting COVID-19 will have anything more than 2% mortality. The economic impact will be short-lived; IMHO a year from now we'll be where we were before COVID-19. A better comparison (for economic effect) might be severe flu outbreaks, such as the 1957 and 1968 flu.

Exactly thats how I look at it. Could the media for once stop fanning unwarranted fear? I doubt it. But they could try.

[operating]

At my Yahoo homepage 9 out of the first 31 articles was about this coronavirus. The substance of the articles varied, a very few were objective in offering solutions, or science based in nature. What concerned me was the doom and gloom blame game and making a hullabaloo out of some rather mundane stuff, in other words mostly opinionated or opinion from many that are not scientists. Until this virus scare is reasoned out and fully understood through observation, action and reaction (experimenting) I'm of the mind to be cautious and wait for some good news to start turning things around..