OT - The New Coronavirus

[Zorch]

ORIGINAL: Zap

ORIGINAL: Zorch

ORIGINAL: nicwb



That's probably right - on it's own COVID-19 won't destroy the economy. But it could give it a fairly hard knock. It may simply depend on what underlying problems the economy currently has and how well/badly people adapt. For instance the Black Death in the 14th century literally decimated the European agricultural economy. But it did not completely destroy it. The problem - not enough workers left to farm the feudal estates. The solution -wages rose markedly due to the shortage of labor. Landlords and feudal estates probably had to swallow the losses or at least renegotiate with their tenants until the population became greater.

There's no comparison with the Black Death. That killed 25 or 30% of the population in Europe over several years (1346-1350). No one (and I mean absolutely no one) is suggesting COVID-19 will have anything more than 2% mortality. The economic impact will be short-lived; IMHO a year from now we'll be where we were before COVID-19. A better comparison (for economic effect) might be severe flu outbreaks, such as the 1957 and 1968 flu.

Exactly thats how I look at it. Could the media for once stop fanning unwarranted fear? I doubt it. But they could try.

The media is a reflection of our society, for better or worse...

[Lobster]

ORIGINAL: RFalvo69

But now hear this: she is in Lombardy, in the middle of one of the hottest zones on Earth (we are told) - and she can't name a single person hit by the Coronavirus. Not one of her fellow students, not one of her friends, not her grocer, not the cab driver, not the brother-in-law of a friend's dentist. No one. She told me "Should I decide to try how this bug is, I wouldn't know how to do it." (she was always the creative one).

Isn't this exactly what governments are trying to achieve? Is it a bad thing that it isn't spreading like the flu or the common cold?

Sometimes it seems to me the media and some in government are trying to make it appear like the black death to scare people into doing the things necessary to prevent the spread of the virus.

On the upside, anyone seen the sat images of China? They found a way to stop pollution. Air quality is great in Beijing. [:)]

[RFalvo69]

ORIGINAL: Lobster

ORIGINAL: RFalvo69

But now hear this: she is in Lombardy, in the middle of one of the hottest zones on Earth (we are told) - and she can't name a single person hit by the Coronavirus. Not one of her fellow students, not one of her friends, not her grocer, not the cab driver, not the brother-in-law of a friend's dentist. No one. She told me "Should I decide to try how this bug is, I wouldn't know how to do it." (she was always the creative one).

Isn't this exactly what governments are trying to achieve? Is it a bad thing that it isn't spreading like the flu or the common cold?

Sometimes it seems to me the media and some in government are trying to make it appear like the black death to scare people into doing the things necessary to prevent the spread of the virus.

True, fear is a way to make people react correctly to the problem. Then again, fear makes people run away from "red zone" areas - via corruption or unbeaten paths. The authorities in Northern Italy actually catched some guys who were trying to make a beeline for Genoa starting from Codogno, the "ground zero" in Lombardy. No one knows if others were successful in escaping.

What my daughter meant, however, is that she isn't hearing about someone who got the virus, no matter how distant the relationship is - like in "Boy, my sister's friend knows a doctor that catch the bug and was admitted at the San Raffaele hospital in Milan today; he is very sick. Brrr!" Nothing. Her radar is empty. The only sick people she knows about are those mentioned in the media. I can say the same.

[Lobster]

That is encouraging. I hope it stays that way. I hope it goes away with the warm weather like the flu. [;)]

[RFalvo69]

ORIGINAL: Lobster

That is encouraging. I hope it stays that way. I hope it goes away with the warm weather like the flu. [;)]

Or that "a miracle" happens [;)]

[Mobius]

ORIGINAL: Zorch

ORIGINAL: Zap

ORIGINAL: Zorch


There's no comparison with the Black Death. That killed 25 or 30% of the population in Europe over several years (1346-1350). No one (and I mean absolutely no one) is suggesting COVID-19 will have anything more than 2% mortality. The economic impact will be short-lived; IMHO a year from now we'll be where we were before COVID-19. A better comparison (for economic effect) might be severe flu outbreaks, such as the 1957 and 1968 flu.

Exactly thats how I look at it. Could the media for once stop fanning unwarranted fear? I doubt it. But they could try.

The media is a reflection of our society, for better or worse...

Ha ha ha. No it isn't.

[Zorch]

ORIGINAL: Mobius

ORIGINAL: Zorch

ORIGINAL: Zap





Exactly thats how I look at it. Could the media for once stop fanning unwarranted fear? I doubt it. But they could try.

The media is a reflection of our society, for better or worse...

Ha ha ha. No it isn't.

Would you care to explain your reasoning?

[Sieben]

[/quote]
There's no comparison with the Black Death. That killed 25 or 30% of the population in Europe over several years (1346-1350). No one (and I mean absolutely no one) is suggesting COVID-19 will have anything more than 2% mortality. The economic impact will be short-lived; IMHO a year from now we'll be where we were before COVID-19. A better comparison (for economic effect) might be severe flu outbreaks, such as the 1957 and 1968 flu.
[/quote]

Latest figures, quoted from ABC News website:

"There have been 87,138 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in at least 60 countries and 2,980 deaths, according to the latest figures released by WHO." That is, 3.4%

[Zorch]

ORIGINAL: Sieben

There's no comparison with the Black Death. That killed 25 or 30% of the population in Europe over several years (1346-1350). No one (and I mean absolutely no one) is suggesting COVID-19 will have anything more than 2% mortality. The economic impact will be short-lived; IMHO a year from now we'll be where we were before COVID-19. A better comparison (for economic effect) might be severe flu outbreaks, such as the 1957 and 1968 flu.
[/quote]

Latest figures, quoted from ABC News website:

"There have been 87,138 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in at least 60 countries and 2,980 deaths, according to the latest figures released by WHO." That is, 3.4%
[/quote]
This report says 'confirmed' cases - that is not the same as total cases. There are 'suspected' and 'possible' cases, too. Many mild cases are not reported or categorized correctly, as described by Chickenboy. Let's wait until the dust settles.

Even if the mortality rate does exceed 2% of cases, it's nothing like 25 or 30% of the total population.

[Curtis Lemay]

ORIGINAL: Sieben

Latest figures, quoted from ABC News website:

"There have been 87,138 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in at least 60 countries and 2,980 deaths, according to the latest figures released by WHO." That is, 3.4%

Worse than a tour in Nam. (58,000 / 2,700,000) = 2.15%.

[Curtis Lemay]

ORIGINAL: Zorch

This report says 'confirmed' cases - that is not the same as total cases. There are 'suspected' and 'possible' cases, too. Many mild cases are not reported or categorized correctly, as described by Chickenboy. Let's wait until the dust settles.

Both ends of the equation are equally unknown. You are correct that we don't know the full extent of the cases, but we also don't know the full extent of how many of those cases (most still in progress) will result in deaths. So, working with what is known for both sides of the equation (known cases vs. known deaths) is probably the best estimate.

[operating]

ORIGINAL: Sieben

There's no comparison with the Black Death. That killed 25 or 30% of the population in Europe over several years (1346-1350). No one (and I mean absolutely no one) is suggesting COVID-19 will have anything more than 2% mortality. The economic impact will be short-lived; IMHO a year from now we'll be where we were before COVID-19. A better comparison (for economic effect) might be severe flu outbreaks, such as the 1957 and 1968 flu.
[/quote]

Latest figures, quoted from ABC News website:

"There have been 87,138 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in at least 60 countries and 2,980 deaths, according to the latest figures released by WHO." That is, 3.4%
[/quote]
Here is the problem: Getting your (or anybody's info from a media site) data correct go directly to the source. ABC is releasing the wrong information, although it is not that far off. Below is "today's" WHO statistics: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source ... 7203e653_2

[Zorch]

If it gets real bad, I'll to retire to my country villa and read Boccaccio's Decameron. [:)]

[Sieben]

Thanks for the link, operating. I'll quote from there in the future. However, unless my calculator is broken, figures from that site still work out to 3.4%. Also, I've been making this calculation every time new figures are released and it had gone up steadily from just over 2% to over 3.4%. Unlike SARS and MERS, COVID-19 has spread to 60 countries. Excuse me if I worry.

[Mobius]

ORIGINAL: Zorch

ORIGINAL: Mobius

ORIGINAL: Zorch



The media is a reflection of our society, for better or worse...

Ha ha ha. No it isn't.

Would you care to explain your reasoning?

Most people realize the bias in politics.
http://archive.mrc.org/biasbasics/biasbasics3.asp
https://www.theatlantic.com/business/ar ... ly/361891/
Then there is the bias in class and education as in the UK.
http://theminiaturespage.com/boards/topics.mv?id=22

[Zorch]

ORIGINAL: Mobius

ORIGINAL: Zorch

ORIGINAL: Mobius



Ha ha ha. No it isn't.

Would you care to explain your reasoning?

Most people realize the bias in politics.
http://archive.mrc.org/biasbasics/biasbasics3.asp
https://www.theatlantic.com/business/ar ... ly/361891/
Then there is the bias in class and education as in the UK.
http://theminiaturespage.com/boards/topics.mv?id=22

I can't comment on your links without getting political. Thanks for posting them.

My reasoning is that the media give people what they want, in the search for higher ratings. And a juicy headline with buzzwords is more interesting (to most people) than a complicated, hard to explain, accurate description of the problem. Viewers watch what they can easily understand. I don't see that as being political.

[Erik Rutins]

Passing this along as I think it's a good summary:

http://blog.eladgil.com/2020/02/coronav ... w-for.html

[sPzAbt653]

Thanks for that and other posts, Erik; and to Romano for the reports from Italy [glad the sister is ok]. My brother is well established and respected in the medical field [based in the eastern USA and currently traveling to the Mid-West and not unduly worried] and his advice is similar to that blog. That is, no need to flee to Rockall, just have 2-4 weeks of supplies at home in case your area is suddenly shut down.

[RFalvo69]

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

ORIGINAL: Sieben

Latest figures, quoted from ABC News website:

"There have been 87,138 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in at least 60 countries and 2,980 deaths, according to the latest figures released by WHO." That is, 3.4%

Worse than a tour in Nam. (58,000 / 2,700,000) = 2.15%.

But a tour in 'Nam also caused wounded, disabled and people with permanent PTSD. I guess that the overall percentage of "casualties" was much higher.

However, it is true that this virus is causing PTSD in entities ranging from the common guy to the whole World economy - even before it hits.

[Lobster]

ORIGINAL: RFalvo69

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

ORIGINAL: Sieben

Latest figures, quoted from ABC News website:

"There have been 87,138 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in at least 60 countries and 2,980 deaths, according to the latest figures released by WHO." That is, 3.4%

Worse than a tour in Nam. (58,000 / 2,700,000) = 2.15%.

But a tour in 'Nam also caused wounded, disabled and people with permanent PTSD. I guess that the overall percentage of "casualties" was much higher.

However, it is true that this virus is causing PTSD in entities ranging from the common guy to the whole World economy - even before it hits.

Even before it hits? China is the 'worlds factory'. There are shortages of materials because the world practically put all of it's eggs in one basket. Many of those eggs are pharmaceuticals. If you use the common pain reliever acetaminophen then you will be impacted. Further, if you have high blood pressure that is one of the OTC pain relievers that is used. It has hit in China. No even before.

BTW, Bob was talking about deaths and said so.