OT: Corona virus

[jeffk3510]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The date given by Johns Hopkins, consistent with other credible sources, seems encouraging rather than discouraging.

The media could put this up for the norovirus, and it would show around 200k deaths a year, but no one does anything about it. 3,300 people right now and the world has lost it's mind.

Our school district just announced if we have one, ONE confirmed case, the entire district is shutting down. We currently have a lot of kids/teachers out from your seasonal flu and it's business as usual at the school... this is starting to become annoying honestly. I live in the most central part of the USA you can live in, and you can't buy toilet paper or bottled water at our Walmart. Yes, you're hearing that correctly. I live in a town of 5,000 people..

They're selling hazmat suits in pharmacy's in Italy - that's all you have to know.

[Canoerebel]

Detail, at bottom right, of Johns Hopkins webpage, as of 10:20 a.m. eastern time.

It shows the number of new cases (vertical red bars) reported each day.

That is not the profile of a pandemic. The numbers are steady rather than mushrooming.

This data is either reliable, which would be great, or unreliable, which wouldn't be.

[Erik Rutins]

The decrease in China in that view is partially masking the exponential increase elsewhere. Cases are now appearing in most countries around the globe, including those with poor health systems. It's still spreading at a very high rate even in advanced countries implementing social distancing and contact tracing. That's what is leading many to say that this is now an inevitable pandemic, projecting forward a few more weeks. If we are very, very lucky, it will not be but there is no indication at this point that is is containable without excellent preparation and very significant proactive measures for a long period of time.

[Erik Rutins]

This is the main concern at this point:

[Erik Rutins]

The mortality estimates are based on the fact that while it's mild for about 80% of people, it hospitalizes 15-20% and about 5% need ICU care for many weeks. No hospital system around the world is built to handle that kind of load and if it is not contained and spreads too quickly people who need hospital care will not be able to receive it and the mortality will increase. We saw this in Wuhan. Reports from Northern Italy are that hospitals are already strained there even with a relatively small number of cases relative to the overall population.

If it cannot be contained, it is vital that the spread be slowed as much as possible to limit the strain on the hospital systems. Hence school closings, canceling public gatherings, work from home, etc. to try to slow the growth rate of cases.

[Canoerebel]

The yellow line on the Johns Hopkins graph excludes cases in China and looks nothing like the graph you just posted, Erik.

And look at daily new cases (the Johns Hopkins detail I posted, just above). Nearly all new cases are non-China now, but the number of new cases per day has been steady during March, mainly around 2,400.

How can we have a logarithmic increase without exponential growth?

That does not make mathematical sense.

[Kull]

ORIGINAL: Erik Rutins

This is the main concern at this point:

No offense Erik, but you could draw the same graph every flu season. Until there's a clear indicator that mortality rates are dramatically higher, or there's some sort of evolution into scarier varieties, it's hard to see the difference. Don't get me wrong, I'm currently visiting with my 90+ y/o parents and this thing is certainly worrisome from that perspective. But the fact that governments and the media are collaborating to scare the everybody on the planet and shut down the global economy over what amounts to "flu season 2.0", well, I don't see it.

[Erik Rutins]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
The yellow line on the Johns Hopkins graph excludes cases in China and looks nothing like the graph you just posted, Erik.

It does, but the difference in how you see it due to two reasons. The first is scale. It's scaled to the China numbers which are on the same graph, which makes it appear less significant. The second is that various countries report at different times of the day, but Johns Hopkins' latest data point gets added right at the start of the day and thus a new day almost always looks like the curve is flattening. You need to look at everything except the latest data point on that yellow graph for the actual curve.

And look at daily new cases (the Johns Hopkins detail I posted, just above). Nearly all new cases are non-China now, but the number of new cases per day has been steady during March, mainly around 2,400.

Same issue I described above regarding the latest data point on that site.

Regards,

- Erik

[Erik Rutins]

ORIGINAL: Kull
No offense Erik, but you could draw the same graph every flu season. Until there's a clear indicator that mortality rates are dramatically higher, or there's some sort of evolution into scarier varieties, it's hard to see the difference. Don't get me wrong, I'm currently visiting with my 90+ y/o parents and this thing is certainly worrisome from that perspective. But the fact that governments and the media are collaborating to scare the everybody on the planet and shut down the global economy over what amounts to "flu season 2.0", well, I don't see it.

No offense taken at all, but there is already a huge amount of data that this is many times more lethal than the flu. The most optimistic estimates from NIH and CDC are in the 0.7% - 1.3% mortality range, while the WHO is saying 3.4%, whereas seasonal flue is about 0.1%. That's average mortality. It's closer to flu mortality for younger people, much much worse for older people. Unlike the flu, it is a lung illness - it attaches to the ACE2 receptors which are mostly in the lungs as I understand it, so people who develop severe illness immediately get a lung infection/pneumonia, which is a heck of a stress test on anyone.

Whether it's as bad as 3.4% is debatable, but it's definitely not "just the flu". I wish it were.

[Erik Rutins]

FWIW, this is the site I was referencing:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

If you click on the "more case statistics" you'll see what I posted.

[RangerJoe]

Well, I posted some links and one of them had things to consume that have antiviral properties that protect against this virus and there are some that work against protection because of how they work. Stay sensible, eat properly, proper sanitary techniques, and most people should be fine. Stress works against you and all of this hype is stressful. It sort of reminds me of the chickens when we cut their heads off . . .

[Scott_USN]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe
It sort of reminds me of the chickens when we cut their heads off . . .

I love some hot wings!

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Scott_USN

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe
It sort of reminds me of the chickens when we cut their heads off . . .

I love some hot wings!

These were older laying hens from an egg farm. My stepmother would make nice, thick, rich, yellowish egg yolk noodles from the whole yolks we found inside. Boil them and then fry them in butter if they did not go into soup.

[USSAmerica]

ORIGINAL: Kull

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Or, what in the world am I missing?

You are missing the fact that a for-profit Media enterprise is looking to generate additional income (i.e through web site "clicks") by publicizing the extremely scary findings of an obscure research group.

This is why they are called "the media" now, and no longer called "the news".

[Erik Rutins]

My $.02: The only way we're going to stop this, is by taking it seriously and separating it from political issues. On this issue, dismissing it as a non-threat that will not create a pandemic will actually have the effect of guaranteeing a pandemic. The sooner we all get on the same page and work to contain it, the less damage this virus will do.

On a personal note, I'm being particularly vocal on this because my two elderly parents live in an apartment in our house. They are both in the very high risk group for this virus and if it goes through the community, because they also require regular health assistance beyond what I can provide, through visiting nurses, we will almost certainly be among the first affected. We can't really isolate ourselves effectively, so we have to hope this is taken seriously by others and that it does not become a large epidemic.

If it helps, if you want to see Distant Worlds 2 and Gary Grigsby's War in the East 2 and Steel Tigers anytime soon, please take this seriously!

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Erik Rutins

The decrease in China in that view is partially masking the exponential increase elsewhere. Cases are now appearing in most countries around the globe, including those with poor health systems. It's still spreading at a very high rate even in advanced countries implementing social distancing and contact tracing. That's what is leading many to say that this is now an inevitable pandemic, projecting forward a few more weeks. If we are very, very lucky, it will not be but there is no indication at this point that is is containable without excellent preparation and very significant proactive measures for a long period of time.

We are thinking along the same lines. The good news so far is that it is appearing to be less transmissible than the flu.

The mortality rate is getting better and better estimated as time goes on, so the current WHO estimate of 3.4% is bad news, and I seriously doubt it's an instance of scaremongering. I'm not sure (as I think Kull commented below your post) that the mortality rate is a projection based on medical care availability, it's my impression (I could be wrong) that it's historical. Given how overwhelmed the medical system became in Wuhan/Hubei that amounts to the same thing, and I agree (with subsequent comments) that any nation's medical system could quickly become overwhelmed with this.

I read an brief article of a study which found that it is possible certain gene pools are either less susceptible or not susceptible to this virus (most of the population of sub-Saharan Africa and of course anyone with the relevant genes). If so, that would provide some relief.

Let's suppose the mortality rate is only 2%. If 1,000,000,000 people get COVID-19, that's 20,000,000. If 3.4% that's 34,000,000. It's quite possible that far more than 1,000,000,000 people will become infected.

Much depends on slowing the spread of COVID-19, developing effective treatments, a vaccine...

[Scott_USN]

China's new infection numbers are not only leveled they are dropping. Just from yesterday it was reported fewer were infected today. 119 new cases is not even much of a blip. Not downplaying the seriousness of the virus but I think it has to be taken in perspective. If it was going to go real bad I think their numbers in China would be exponentially climbing.

[jeffk3510]

ORIGINAL: Erik Rutins

My $.02: The only way we're going to stop this, is by taking it seriously and separating it from political issues. On this issue, dismissing it as a non-threat that will not create a pandemic will actually have the effect of guaranteeing a pandemic. The sooner we all get on the same page and work to contain it, the less damage this virus will do.

On a personal note, I'm being particularly vocal on this because my two elderly parents live in an apartment in our house. They are both in the very high risk group for this virus and if it goes through the community, because they also require regular health assistance beyond what I can provide, through visiting nurses, we will almost certainly be among the first affected. We can't really isolate ourselves effectively, so we have to hope this is taken seriously by others and that it does not become a large epidemic.

If it helps, if you want to see Distant Worlds 2 and Gary Grigsby's War in the East 2 and Steel Tigers anytime soon, please take this seriously!

I do hope nothing happens, and can understand your concerns. I would have them to if I lived closer to the cost and my parents are in a higher risk as well. Higher risk for a lot of things, not just this.

I just think the media has lost their minds with what is going on, and is pushing a false narrative at this time.

yes on DW2 - I really enjoy the first one.

[Kull]

It's an interesting thought experiment - what would the flu mortality rate look like without the vaccine?

As for Covid-19, well, it's in the wild. This genie is not going back in the bottle. The world would be far better served to throw the vast sums being spent on "containment" into research ASAP and focus on a vaccine. And equally important, have a plan in place for expedited testing AND production and distribution.

Or continue to do what we've been doing which is to look like we're doing something.

[Canoerebel]

Yes, something's really wrong with the analysis here.

I don't think this will become a true pandemic, given the figures I've seen and how this is playing out to this point.

Also, credible sources are putting mortality at 0.2% to 0.4%, about a ninth of that WHO estimate. Something's really off there, but the raw data supports the lower number not the higher one.

And the number of new cases is steady each day. In the first four days of March, the total ranges from 1,400 to 2,400, with three of those days clustered around 2,400. The rate is not increasing; there's no exponential increase; nothing like it, in fact.

I don't like the "if you don't get on board with this/agree with me, you have your head in the sand/are going to make it harder to defeat this thing" line.

In the first place, I'll take the usual sensible precautions. Secondly, I'm trying to figure this out, and don't have any particular agenda other than to get at the truth. I did have misgivings about the media reporting accurately, so I stopped relying on it and tried to get as much reliable info as possible, to get a better grip on what's going on. I'm a layman, we're still early in this thing, and perhaps the data is inaccurate, but so far it isn't consistent with a pandemic. I understand that other sources, including some reputable ones, are reporting differently. That's why I started this thread, hoping to get more info, and more credible insight, from our learned members.

Like everybody else, I have vulnerable family members. All of us are hoping for the best. I don't think any of us have our heads in the sand. We do have varying levels of skepticism, but that's okay.