OT: Corona virus

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

So January 20th is the date of occurrence of the first know case?

Back at the turn of the year, I suffered a bout of the worst case of flu I have ever had in my entire life.
It had me bedridden for three days, struggling to breathe and out of work for a week and took a good week and a half to get over.

Is it possible I already had the coronavirus and survived it?

No that's just the date where the graph begins.

From reading some CDC/WHO stuff a couple of weeks ago, as I understand it, it is thought the first case in humans must have occurred the first week in December or the last week in November. That's not certain, AFAIK, it's their best estimate.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Kull

I just lost a long post and have no desire to re-do it. The highlights:

- The CDC (forget interpreters like Bloomberg - go right to the source) says you get it from walking through the six foot cloud hacked up by a symptomatic carrier (see my earlier posts for links). There is no proof that any other form of transmission has happened.

- "Extensive testing" is not required, and any testing could cause worse problems depending on how it's administered. Also, just because the test says you don't have it today, that doesn't mean you won't get it tomorrow, and the "I'm clean" thought process could lead to all sorts of bad behaviors. Testing has a role, but it's NOT the one the media and politicians have been flogging.

Nothing about the statement I made or the article challenge statement number one you make above. I said people will get it from other people. Wherever they are. Not just in a hospital, and hopefully less often if they’re paying attention to guidelines here at least to call a hotline and stay at home if you have some of these flu-like symptoms.

The purpose of using good articles is that those professionals look at more data than we have time to search effectively and can present the essentials concisely in layman’s terms. This article does that.

There is danger in not acting to prevent spread of this disease. But you’re arguing that everyone in the media is blowing it out of proportion to the risk. if it transmits almost as well as the flu the risk of critical cases and mortality could be 5-10 times that caused by the worst flus, and maybe worse is once no one is vaccinated and hospitals could not cope with the number of critical cases caused by even the low estimates of mortality rates (.5%)

What is the risk in the media over-playing it other than being annoyed and running out of TP?

[Canoerebel]

What is the risk of the media overplaying it?

[X(]

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

So January 20th is the date of occurrence of the first know case?

Back at the turn of the year, I suffered a bout of the worst case of flu I have ever had in my entire life.
It had me bedridden for three days, struggling to breathe and out of work for a week and took a good week and a half to get over.

Is it possible I already had the coronavirus and survived it?

No that's just the date where the graph begins.

From reading some CDC/WHO stuff a couple of weeks ago, as I understand it, it is thought the first case in humans must have occurred the first week in December or the last week in November. That's not certain, AFAIK, it's their best estimate.

That settles it. I'm declaring victory. [:D]

[Kull]

ORIGINAL: obvert

What is the risk in the media over-playing it other than being annoyed and running out of TP?

We're already seeing the effect. Economies worldwide are slowing down, and that helps nobody. And why is that? Because the media (those "professionals" you admire so much) has a vested interest in spreading panic and misinformation in order to heighten anxiety and thus increased viewership. Because of a disease that (taking China out of the equation) has caused 342 deaths worldwide since it began.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
*The first suspected case from my little town in Northwest Georgia is being evaluated by the CDC right now. So my thoughts aren't shared flippantly.

Is it you? C'mon Dan-you can tell us. [X(]

[MakeeLearn]

Coronavirus: The "Cures" Will Be Worse Than the Disease

https://steemit.com/coronavirus/@corbet ... he-disease


Will it????



"
1) Unprecedented surveillance and control of population
2) A blank check for Big Pharma and the WHO
3) An excuse to implement medical martial law
4) An excuse to crack down on the internet
5) Precipitating economic crisis

Don't believe me? Just read the press release that Johns Hopkins and the Event 201 participants put out last month just before "Wuhan" and "Coronavirus" became topics of daily conversation:

"The next severe pandemic will not only cause great illness and loss of life but could also trigger major cascading economic and societal consequences that could contribute greatly to global impact and suffering. Efforts to prevent such consequences or respond to them as they unfold will require unprecedented levels of collaboration between governments, international organizations, and the private sector."
"

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: HansBolter
Don't go to an emergency room for one thing. If I'm a betting man, that's where 90% of the Covid-19 transmission in Hubei stemmed from. People arrived with the flu, sat next to a coughing covid-carrier, and acquired it that way. What made it so bad in China at the start is that people didn't know what they were dealing with, so herd behavior helped it disseminate rapidly.

You mean to tell me that those much ballyhooed tent hospitals that the Chinese were erecting in Wuhan with the beds 3 feet apart from each other and common area cross-ventilation systems may not have done much to stop person-to-person spread of this virus? But the CCP got so much fawning publicity about their 'building anything is better than not building anything' approach! I'm shocked I tell you! Shocked*!

*Not really.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: obvert
What is the risk in the media over-playing it other than being annoyed and running out of TP?

When the media doesn't walk back their 'worst case scenario' narrative as the facts on the ground change, it's irresponsible. We've heard a *LOT* about a 2-4% CFR. I've not heard major media organizations walk it back to 1/10th that. Why haven't they done so? Because [sigh...] the salacious sells. The novel sells. The torrid and breathless sells. Moderation, circumspection, counter-narratives that don't fit their sky is falling premise don't get any time. Unbridled fear-in part due to media distortions-becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Socioeconomic impacts follow that can be laid squarely at the feet of the irresponsible fear mongers.

That's why.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Kull

ORIGINAL: obvert

What is the risk in the media over-playing it other than being annoyed and running out of TP?

We're already seeing the effect. Economies worldwide are slowing down, and that helps nobody. And why is that? Because the media (those "professionals" you admire so much) has a vested interest in spreading panic and misinformation in order to heighten anxiety and thus increased viewership. Because of a disease that (taking China out of the equation) has caused 342 deaths worldwide since it began.

I should probably specify that I don’t watch media news, I read it. And I chose my sources carefully.

Economies are in crisis because investors and (mostly large hedge funds and banks) are risk averse. They’ve seen the shutdown in China, a month of huge industrial areas closing factories and keeping everyone inside. It’s not hard for them to imagine this could happen elsewhere.

The big financials that create swings in the market aren’t watching CNN. They’re looking far deeper and have their own analysts. So don’t blame journalism for financial decline. That is something to blame on the extremely wealthy that don’t want to lose their wealth, and pull out before things get too bad.

[Canoerebel]

[&:]

[Canoerebel]

I missed the chance to meet you that last time you came to Atlanta. Come on back. I'll greet thee with a big hug.

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
*The first suspected case from my little town in Northwest Georgia is being evaluated by the CDC right now. So my thoughts aren't shared flippantly.

Is it you? C'mon Dan-you can tell us. [X(]

[Kull]

And a sloppy kiss, right on the beak? [;)]

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: obvert
What is the risk in the media over-playing it other than being annoyed and running out of TP?

When the media doesn't walk back their 'worst case scenario' narrative as the facts on the ground change, it's irresponsible. We've heard a *LOT* about a 2-4% CFR. I've not heard major media organizations walk it back to 1/10th that. Why haven't they done so? Because [sigh...] the salacious sells. The novel sells. The torrid and breathless sells. Moderation, circumspection, counter-narratives that don't fit their sky is falling premise don't get any time. Unbridled fear-in part due to media distortions-becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Socioeconomic impacts follow that can be laid squarely at the feet of the irresponsible fear mongers.

That's why.

I disagree. Very simply, the public have no trouble freakingnoit even with mild predictions. Profit oriented media is a problem, but more for deflecting public attention away from real issues at stake.

Currently there is differing opinion about mortality rates, and predictions, however educated, are still just predictions. The rate as stated from known cases is still fairly high, and until there is more widespread testing, knowledge about transmission and evidence from multiple areas now seeing widespread community derived cases those rates are the only ones that are actually relevant.

Even if they are lowered getting people worried about something like this is not bad in my opinion. However bad it gets, it’s definitely the most impactful new disease strain since HIV.

[Chickenboy]

My PSA for the day for this thread:

A large influx of RT-PCR primer 'test kits' has been released to myriad state labs and private labs here in the US. Washington and California state have as many as they asked for. Several million test kits will be available and distributed next week. State / private labs will run the test first and 'presumptive' positives will be sent to CDC for 'confirmation'.

Much like the Wuhan case spike when they changed their reporting standards mid-February, expect an artifactual spike in the number of cases domestically as more suspected cases are tested. Please remember that presumptive and confirmed cases will likely spike in the United States in the next week due to enhanced testing. I fully expect this to occur and I also fully expect that our media coverage will distort the rationale of spike in cases.

Good news would look like a doubling (a guess on my part) number of cases with widespread testing and a liberalization of the rationale for testing (e.g., looking at *any* travel history as opposed to just travel from China). "Only" having a few hundred cumulative cases in a country this size-one that's now doing lots of testing for it-would suggest that it's not ubiquitous, but still sporadic. We can continue to slow down the velocity by non-medical interventional strategies. Tincture of time and all that.

Bad news would be moving further to the right on the log scale of the epidemic curve. If >2000 cases are reported next week, that would suggest that the disease is more widespread than previously believed and that non-medical interventional strategies may have greater headwinds in reducing the spread of this disease than previously hoped.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: obvert
However bad it gets, it’s definitely the most impactful new disease strain since HIV.

Nonsense.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: obvert
However bad it gets, it’s definitely the most impactful new disease strain since HIV.

Nonsense.

Haha!

So many one icon or word responses. It’s all conjecture right now but if you don’t think this is changing the world in financial, medical, social and cultural arenas already then you’re not paying attention. Here in Europe everything is being cancelled including conferences and sporting events.

This is a big deal.

[Canoerebel]

I think we'll see another trend over the next week - the number of reported "recoveries" should drop drastically. This is because the massive reservoir of existing cases in China is now almost dry, meaning there aren't that many positive cases remaining to keep up with the number of recoveries seen over the past few weeks.

Over the next week or two, we should see lots of new active cases in the West (generating alarm, as Chickenboy just pointed out) and a drop in recoveries (generating alarm). But thereafter, we should see data in the west (beginning in Europe and Iran) that tracks the data we've seen from China. I would guess the leveling off would begin in places like Italy and Iran. The USA would come later, as the virus outbreak started here later.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: obvert
That is something to blame on the extremely wealthy that don’t want to lose their wealth, and pull out before things get too bad.

Nah. It's not retail investors or the extremely wealthy that are calling their 401(k) or IRA brokers and panic selling. There was a neat article in the WSJ that showed that since 2009, individual investors-in spite of media assumptions to the contrary are *less* likely to jump out of and panic sell stocks than larger brokerage houses and pension / hedge funds. It's not retail investors or the individual wealthy that are driving the 10-year Treasury down to 0.6% APR as of this morning. That's the rest of the globe buying the safety and security of sovereign notes-any sovereign notes will do-that have an increasingly rare positive yield in a deflationary environment.

[Kull]

ORIGINAL: obvert

Here in Europe everything is being cancelled including conferences and sprouting events.

That is the very definition of panic. In Europe, they are even shutting down the farms!! [X(][&:][;)]