OT: Corona virus

[BBfanboy]

All the early numbers are suspect because we did not have broad testing anywhere to get valid statistical pools for the numbers we need to track. The initial boom in transmission rate numbers was likely just greater testing giving us more awareness of how many were already exposed. Only now are we reaching the point where the health system has reasonable regimes for testing all at-risk individuals. I think the next couple of weeks will give a much better picture on infection rates, infected numbers, and potentially infected persons.

We also need better info on the cause of death of those that had the virus. Did people die of their original condition with the virus just hastening their passing or did the virus effects actually cause the death, regardless of base condition (i.e., the base condition weakened the victim but they were not likely to die before the virus hit).

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Kull

ORIGINAL: Erik Rutins

This is worth reading:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/10/sim ... -covid-19/

Since all the really scary stuff in that article starts with the premise that "infection counts double every 6 days", lets take a close look at that. First off, we have the South Korea numbers (posted earlier and updated through today). However, I've added a third column so you can see the % increase compared with the total 6 days earlier. A few things to keep in mind:

- The early counts are ludicrous in size (the totals were too small to be meaningful), so we'll start by comparing the total on 2/28 with the one on 2/20, and will maintain the 6-day comparison up through 3/10 (today)

- When looking at the percentages in the 3rd column, 100% means the numbers doubled, and anything higher means an even greater rate of increase.

OK, here we go:

2/18 - 31
2/19 - 58
2/20 - 111
2/21 - 209
2/22 - 436
2/23 - 602
2/24 - 833
2/25 - 893
2/26 - 1261
2/27 - 1766
2/28 - 2022 - 364%
2/29 - 3150 - 423%
3/1 - 3526 - 323%
3/2 - 4212 - 372%
3/3 - 4812 - 282%
3/4 - 5328 - 202%
3/5 - 6088 - 201%
3/6 - 6593 - 109%
3/7 - 7041 - 100%
3/8 - 7134 - 69%
3/9 - 7382 - 53%
3/10 - 7513 - 41%

Roughly 2 weeks into the epidemic, the 6-day comparisons are extremely high, 300%+. But starting with Day 15 (3/3), it's in the 200's and falling rapidly. To the extent that by today, it's down to 40%. Which means, barring something crazy, the "nightmare scenario" is not happening in South Korea.

OK then, do we have any other examples of relatively reliable data that's "mature" in numbers? (i.e. enough data so it's not just statistical noise) Well let's take a look at Italy. That would appear to be the textbook case (so far) in how NOT to handle this thing. The epidemic took off in Italy around 2/21, so we'll look at the same three columns of data, and will commence the 6-day percent tracking on 3/2 (looking back at 2/25), since it's 10 days in and roughly the same total case count we started with when examining South Korea:

2/21 - 20
2/22 - 79
2/23 - 150
2/24 - 227
2/25 - 320
2/26 - 445
2/27 - 650
2/28 - 888
2/29 - 1128
3/1 - 1694
3/2 - 2036 - 536%
3/3 - 2502 - 462%
3/4 - 3089 - 375%
3/5 - 3858 - 334%
3/6 - 4636 - 311%
3/7 - 5883 - 247%
3/8 - 7375 - 262%
3/9 - 9172 - 267%
3/10 - 10149 - 229%

The only good news is that the rate has dropped noticeably, but nothing like South Korea. In fact it's been stuck in the 200%+ range for 4 days now (which is a 4x increase, not 2x), so you can kind of see why they went uber-draconian today and shut down the whole country (the "China solution").

Anyway, for those interested in seeing how their country is handling this (at least in terms of rate of increase), that's how to analyze your national numbers.

Thanks. That is really helpful to understand the trending.

This is the issue with that in some places though. We just don't have numbers due to low testing. Even here in the UK it could be a lot more thorough, and some think the govt is stalling on the testing and numbers to make sure there is less panic and less of a financial shutdown. I doubt that, and I sincerely hope the numbers tested pick up everywhere since it's working in the countries doing the most, South Korea and China.

[MakeeLearn]

100-year-old Chinese man recovers from Coronavirus, the oldest patient to beat illness

https://nypost.com/2020/03/08/100-year- ... %20buttons

"A 100-year-old Chinese man has fully recovered from the coronavirus, making him the oldest known patient to pull through the deadly illness, state media reported.

The centenarian patient, who marked his milestone birthday last month, was discharged Saturday from a hospital in Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak, Chinese state news agency Xinhua reported."


"He was treated using antiviral medication, convalescent plasma therapy and traditional Chinese medicine, according to the report. The elderly man was then cleared along with more than 80 other patients Saturday to leave the hospital."



There are anti-inflammatory herbs/foods in traditional Chinese medicine.

[CaptBeefheart]

Korea has been doing a heck of a lot of testing, so the numbers reflect the testing catching up to those infected. I think we can say that 99% of anyone with any sort of symptoms, and probably a very high percentage of people with known exposure, have been tested here. That said, yesterday they discovered a patient who worked in a call center here in Seoul, and the number of cases attributed to that is now 90. Fingers crossed that the spike from that is minimal and others don't pop up.

If your part of the world hasn't had museum closures, school closures or the like yet I'd be planning on it.

By the way, I managed to buy a bag of 30 or so rolls of toilet paper at Costco on Sunday. [:)] We were actually quite low at home and there was plenty there. It was even on sale. More importantly, the 1.75l Kirkland Canadian Whiskey was only about $26. Also, Costco had a no mask, no entry policy.

Cheers,
CB

[Scott_USN]

Kull you have to be an accountant or something or just love numbers! Thanks for showing that because numbers and math show reality of the issue.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

Korea has been doing a heck of a lot of testing, so the numbers reflect the testing catching up to those infected. I think we can say that 99% of anyone with any sort of symptoms, and probably a very high percentage of people with known exposure, have been tested here. That said, yesterday they discovered a patient who worked in a call center here in Seoul, and the number of cases attributed to that is now 90. Fingers crossed that the spike from that is minimal and others don't pop up.

If your part of the world hasn't had museum closures, school closures or the like yet I'd be planning on it.

By the way, I managed to buy a bag of 30 or so rolls of toilet paper at Costco on Sunday. [:)] We were actually quite low at home and there was plenty there. It was even on sale. More importantly, the 1.75l Kirkland Canadian Whiskey was only about $26. Also, Costco had a no mask, no entry policy.

Cheers,
CB

We have a locally owned bottle shop with some I haven’t tried. I’m going to pop over this weekend for a couple of bottles.

If you’re low on TP one way to solve that is to pulp a bunch of random paper and make your own. It won’t be as soft as store bought but it’ll get you through!

[Wuffer]

Kull, thanks again for your work.
For a moment, that was a relief.

However, on a closer look unfortunately I have to spoil the good news again: In the case of Italy, the numbers of new infections are not complete: Lombardia is still missing. Perhaps a request of neighboring Austria and Slovenia giving them time to close their borders, who knows, or to stop the northerners trying to escape to the poor south, where hospital beds are muuuuch lower than in the north (recovered and dead in Lombardi are included although). Overall the numbers are doubtful, I'm afraid. For example > 100 Germans get infected in South Tyrol, not to mention dozens of Scandinavians and Dutch, while the official count of infected for this part is below 50. As said, I didn't follow any agenda, but I think it's still to early for celebrating the peak. It will become worse, as now all hospitals running on 200%.
Until corrected, I stand to my opinion that we see an exponential rise, sry. In the long run it will become a sigmoid curve, but we have not nearly achieved this point.
Regarding Korea, the new numbers just start to rise again, but I agree that this is still the first sign of hope.

[Wuffer]

To put things a bit into relation, here are some comparitions of No of cases per 1 mil population (source: worldometers.info/coronavirus)

Italy : 10,149 total cases --- 167.9 cases per 1M pop
s. Korea 7,755 --- 151.3

Norway 401 --- 95.7
Switzerland 502 --- 58.0
China 80,784 --- 56.1

That means Italy has THREE TIMES the infection rate!
I would not call this 'Uber'-reacting, YMMV. (edit: the national wide close down).

In total, a lot of so called first nations have messed this up royality, so blaming and arrogance maybe not helpful atm.

yeah, the world wonders.

Good news:

Singapore.
Taiwan.
Even Japan.
And S.Korea, even after sabotage from some religious cretins.
They learned a lot from SARS, others forget this lection. And will pay later.

[JohnDillworth]

The rate is holding at about 30% increase a day and is fairly consistent. We are doubling detected infections every 3 days. So, 2,000 by the end of Saturday, 4 thousand by Tuesday, 8,0000 by Friday next, 16k, 32k, 64k, ???????????? We need to take steps to slow the rate. At least here in NYC, the steps have been moderate. Some school closings, a single isolation zone. Not good enough. If we close the public schools it will only help a little. Those kids are not going to stay inside but it will help. Subways, commuter rail, events, Broadway, museums, ....we need to take these steps. In related news. My employer, The City of New York, has deemed me "critical personal". Since I work in Public Safety I'm not surprised. I suppose I should pach my toothbrush

[Wuffer]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

We are doubling detected infections every 3 days. So, 2,000 ... 16k, 32k, 64k, ????????????

Predictions are allways difficult. And you need a lot of working tests for this. /s

Seriously, what's make this so difficult in comparision to Ebola, SARS, MERS, Lassa... is not the virus per se - I agree with Chickenboy partly that it's luckily relative harmless for the maiority - but this damned asymptomatic transmissions. And that all this stuff was known since weeks(!) (but of course ignored/rejected until peer proofed... LOL) https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001468

It could have been nearly done globally right now, just beeing the footnote in Wiki as Jeff said, contained and eliminated as a threat.


Maybe next time.
maybe.


---
PS: Why these predictions are so difficult - the unknown unknowns, two or three days agdo Denmark had only some 50 c9onfirmed cases. And than they started to test, uuups.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

The rate is holding at about 30% increase a day and is fairly consistent. We are doubling detected infections every 3 days. So, 2,000 by the end of Saturday, 4 thousand by Tuesday, 8,0000 by Friday next, 16k, 32k, 64k, ???????????? We need to take steps to slow the rate. At least here in NYC, the steps have been moderate. Some school closings, a single isolation zone. Not good enough. If we close the public schools it will only help a little. Those kids are not going to stay inside but it will help. Subways, commuter rail, events, Broadway, museums, ....we need to take these steps. In related news. My employer, The City of New York, has deemed me "critical personal". Since I work in Public Safety I'm not surprised. I suppose I should pach my toothbrush

I worry in big cities there are so many who will not follow guidelines, but continue to move through, work and in general spread the virus. Some out of lack of understanding, some out of need to make a living, some just because they're brazen and unconcerned that their actions would affect others.

In cities of course these problems magnify due to the close quarters of transport, general crush of people in confined spaces and more large scale events continuing to bring those people together.

Is there a lot of information of how to get tested or seek help if you have symptoms? Is it translated into the appropriate languages? Is testing available to those without medical insurance in NYC?

[HansBolter]

CDC recommends that people over 60 stay home. For how long? Without the income derived from going to work every day I will starve and my power and water will be turned off.

Many of us simply can't afford to put life on hold while we hide.

[GetAssista]

ORIGINAL: HansBolter
CDC recommends that people over 60 stay home. For how long? Without the income derived from going to work every day I will starve and my power and water will be turned off.

Many of us simply can't afford to put life on hold while we hide.

It is only a recommendation, no way to enforce the strict curfew in Us like they did in China.
Also, with more info available about the virus it turns out that touches are the main transmission mechanism. So if you are cautious of what you touch outside of home and you wash your hands regularly you are much safer

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: GetAssista

ORIGINAL: HansBolter
CDC recommends that people over 60 stay home. For how long? Without the income derived from going to work every day I will starve and my power and water will be turned off.

Many of us simply can't afford to put life on hold while we hide.

It is only a recommendation, no way to enforce the strict curfew in Us like they did in China.
Also, with more info available about the virus it turns out that touches are the main transmission mechanism. So if you are cautious of what you touch outside of home and you wash your hands regularly you are much safer

Do you have a link to something that mentions contact transmission as the primary method?

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: GetAssista

ORIGINAL: HansBolter
CDC recommends that people over 60 stay home. For how long? Without the income derived from going to work every day I will starve and my power and water will be turned off.

Many of us simply can't afford to put life on hold while we hide.

It is only a recommendation, no way to enforce the strict curfew in Us like they did in China.
Also, with more info available about the virus it turns out that touches are the main transmission mechanism. So if you are cautious of what you touch outside of home and you wash your hands regularly you are much safer

Do you have a link to something that mentions contact transmission as the primary method?

How is this?

3. How does not touching your face help against the virus?

Respiratory infections such as pneumonia or the flu, can spread through droplets in the air when someone sick coughs, sneezes or talks near an uninfected person, according to the Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology (APIC). This runs similar to how the CDC believes COVID-19 spreads.

"Respiratory infections can be caused by many different bacteria, viruses, and other disease-causing germs," according to the APIC. "When you touch your face with dirty, unwashed hands, germs can take up residence in your mucus membranes which can lead to an infection."

Respiratory infections can not only spread through respiratory droplets, but through contact as well.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather- ... rts/697610

[RangerJoe]

Move to the hot, humid tropics!

Hong Kong University pathology professor John Nicholls said that he suspected three factors would potentially kill the virus, according to the transcript of a private conference call in early February.

"Three things the virus does not like: 1. Sunlight, 2. Temperature and 3. Humidity," Nicholls said in remarks that were leaked on social media. "The virus can remain intact at 4 degrees Celsius (39 degrees Fahrenheit) or 10 degrees C (50 F)...But at 30 degrees C (86 degrees F) then you get inactivation."

The CDC has cautioned that not enough is known about the virus to say for sure that weather will affect the spread, but a spokesperson said, "I’m happy to hope that it [the threat] goes down as the weather warms up."

https://www.accuweather.com/en/health-w ... rus/691967

[RangerJoe]

In other news related to this:

NASA images show amazing reduction in pollution over China believed to be linked to coronavirus outbreak

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather- ... eak/693879

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Move to the hot, humid tropics!

Hong Kong University pathology professor John Nicholls said that he suspected three factors would potentially kill the virus, according to the transcript of a private conference call in early February.

"Three things the virus does not like: 1. Sunlight, 2. Temperature and 3. Humidity," Nicholls said in remarks that were leaked on social media. "The virus can remain intact at 4 degrees Celsius (39 degrees Fahrenheit) or 10 degrees C (50 F)...But at 30 degrees C (86 degrees F) then you get inactivation."

The CDC has cautioned that not enough is known about the virus to say for sure that weather will affect the spread, but a spokesperson said, "I’m happy to hope that it [the threat] goes down as the weather warms up."

https://www.accuweather.com/en/health-w ... rus/691967

And maybe turn off the air conditioning? Seriously, if this is true I wonder if that will be a response

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Move to the hot, humid tropics!

Hong Kong University pathology professor John Nicholls said that he suspected three factors would potentially kill the virus, according to the transcript of a private conference call in early February.

"Three things the virus does not like: 1. Sunlight, 2. Temperature and 3. Humidity," Nicholls said in remarks that were leaked on social media. "The virus can remain intact at 4 degrees Celsius (39 degrees Fahrenheit) or 10 degrees C (50 F)...But at 30 degrees C (86 degrees F) then you get inactivation."

The CDC has cautioned that not enough is known about the virus to say for sure that weather will affect the spread, but a spokesperson said, "I’m happy to hope that it [the threat] goes down as the weather warms up."

https://www.accuweather.com/en/health-w ... rus/691967

And maybe turn off the air conditioning? Seriously, if this is true I wonder if that will be a response

Turn up the heat and boil water. Hey, how about that torture device from the Soumi called the sauna!

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Move to the hot, humid tropics!

Hong Kong University pathology professor John Nicholls said that he suspected three factors would potentially kill the virus, according to the transcript of a private conference call in early February.

"Three things the virus does not like: 1. Sunlight, 2. Temperature and 3. Humidity," Nicholls said in remarks that were leaked on social media. "The virus can remain intact at 4 degrees Celsius (39 degrees Fahrenheit) or 10 degrees C (50 F)...But at 30 degrees C (86 degrees F) then you get inactivation."

The CDC has cautioned that not enough is known about the virus to say for sure that weather will affect the spread, but a spokesperson said, "I’m happy to hope that it [the threat] goes down as the weather warms up."

https://www.accuweather.com/en/health-w ... rus/691967

That's the best news yet. We are only a couple of weeks from the unrelenting onslaught of hot humid summer weather in Florida.

We bypass Go, do not collect $200 and go directly to Summer from what passes for a Winter here. Spring lasts two weeks and started last week. Florida defies the astronomical seasons defined by solstices and equinoxes.