OT - The New Coronavirus

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: z1812

https://nypost.com/2020/02/16/chinese-b ... ronavirus/

Dig out your old black lights and just say that you are disinfecting! [:D]

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Something I think missing from most breathless news coverage is relative risk. In the United States, 34,000-44,000 people die annually from influenza and complications from influenza. Probably that number times 100 are clinically affected, but recover. Other countries have similar incidence/case fatality rate per unit of population.

My guess is that those individuals that tested positive for the Wuhan Coronavirus were *not* screened or reported for co-pathogens or factors that could substantially influence co-morbidity. For example, how many of the reported deaths "due to Coronavirus" were also screened for influenza or other causes of bacterial pneumonia? What number of the coronavirus-ascribed mortality were elderly with pre-existing conditions related to respiratory failure? I haven't seen any reports of insight into the effects that mundane features / causes of respiratory disease are being screened and weighed relative to their importance.

The Wuhan Coronavirus (2019) is an interesting development that bears watching. But let's not lose sight of the forest for the trees. It's still a novel respiratory pathogen that is unlikely to be a pandemic or even a major WHO health concern.

Take a deep breath. Remember the tendency of media towards the salacious: see SARS, Ebola (outside of West Africa) and any number of other novel health developments. Outside of the central nidus of viral origin, none of these 'outbreaks' bore out the drama that media heaped upon them at the time.

Just wanted to keep it real. In the third post on this thread (from January), I poo-pooed the possibility of this becoming a major disease issue or the WHO declaring this a pandemic. While much of what I thought would happen with this disease has happened, I understated the contagious nature of this disease to spread globally. I was wrong. Mea culpa and all that.

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Something I think missing from most breathless news coverage is relative risk. In the United States, 34,000-44,000 people die annually from influenza and complications from influenza. Probably that number times 100 are clinically affected, but recover. Other countries have similar incidence/case fatality rate per unit of population.

My guess is that those individuals that tested positive for the Wuhan Coronavirus were *not* screened or reported for co-pathogens or factors that could substantially influence co-morbidity. For example, how many of the reported deaths "due to Coronavirus" were also screened for influenza or other causes of bacterial pneumonia? What number of the coronavirus-ascribed mortality were elderly with pre-existing conditions related to respiratory failure? I haven't seen any reports of insight into the effects that mundane features / causes of respiratory disease are being screened and weighed relative to their importance.

The Wuhan Coronavirus (2019) is an interesting development that bears watching. But let's not lose sight of the forest for the trees. It's still a novel respiratory pathogen that is unlikely to be a pandemic or even a major WHO health concern.

Take a deep breath. Remember the tendency of media towards the salacious: see SARS, Ebola (outside of West Africa) and any number of other novel health developments. Outside of the central nidus of viral origin, none of these 'outbreaks' bore out the drama that media heaped upon them at the time.

Just wanted to keep it real. In the third post on this thread (from January), I poo-pooed the possibility of this becoming a major disease issue or the WHO declaring this a pandemic. While much of what I thought would happen with this disease has happened, I understated the contagious nature of this disease to spread globally. I was wrong. Mea culpa and all that.

warspite1

Hindsight is a wonderful thing. Good of you to say it but frankly what you thought was understandable given the previous scares.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Something I think missing from most breathless news coverage is relative risk. In the United States, 34,000-44,000 people die annually from influenza and complications from influenza. Probably that number times 100 are clinically affected, but recover. Other countries have similar incidence/case fatality rate per unit of population.

My guess is that those individuals that tested positive for the Wuhan Coronavirus were *not* screened or reported for co-pathogens or factors that could substantially influence co-morbidity. For example, how many of the reported deaths "due to Coronavirus" were also screened for influenza or other causes of bacterial pneumonia? What number of the coronavirus-ascribed mortality were elderly with pre-existing conditions related to respiratory failure? I haven't seen any reports of insight into the effects that mundane features / causes of respiratory disease are being screened and weighed relative to their importance.

The Wuhan Coronavirus (2019) is an interesting development that bears watching. But let's not lose sight of the forest for the trees. It's still a novel respiratory pathogen that is unlikely to be a pandemic or even a major WHO health concern.

Take a deep breath. Remember the tendency of media towards the salacious: see SARS, Ebola (outside of West Africa) and any number of other novel health developments. Outside of the central nidus of viral origin, none of these 'outbreaks' bore out the drama that media heaped upon them at the time.

Just wanted to keep it real. In the third post on this thread (from January), I poo-pooed the possibility of this becoming a major disease issue or the WHO declaring this a pandemic. While much of what I thought would happen with this disease has happened, I understated the contagious nature of this disease to spread globally. I was wrong. Mea culpa and all that.

warspite1

Hindsight is a wonderful thing. Good of you to say it but frankly what you thought was understandable given the previous scares.

I still think that you are still correct about co-pathogens and other factors. Apparently the older men in China who tended to smoke tobacco have a much higher mortality rate than women of the same age who tended not to smoke. Also other factors such as heart disease, diabetes, obesity, et al are not usually found in the children who catch it and shrug it off.

Italy also has a much higher rate of cigarette smoking as well.

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: warspite1

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy




Just wanted to keep it real. In the third post on this thread (from January), I poo-pooed the possibility of this becoming a major disease issue or the WHO declaring this a pandemic. While much of what I thought would happen with this disease has happened, I understated the contagious nature of this disease to spread globally. I was wrong. Mea culpa and all that.

warspite1

Hindsight is a wonderful thing. Good of you to say it but frankly what you thought was understandable given the previous scares.

I still think that you are still correct about co-pathogens and other factors. Apparently the older men in China who tended to smoke tobacco have a much higher mortality rate than women of the same age who tended not to smoke. Also other factors such as heart disease, diabetes, obesity, et al are not usually found in the children who catch it and shrug it off.

Italy also has a much higher rate of cigarette smoking as well.

warspite1

May have been noted before, but apparently Italy has the oldest population in Europe. Almost a quarter over 65.

[Zorch]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: warspite1


warspite1

Hindsight is a wonderful thing. Good of you to say it but frankly what you thought was understandable given the previous scares.

I still think that you are still correct about co-pathogens and other factors. Apparently the older men in China who tended to smoke tobacco have a much higher mortality rate than women of the same age who tended not to smoke. Also other factors such as heart disease, diabetes, obesity, et al are not usually found in the children who catch it and shrug it off.

Italy also has a much higher rate of cigarette smoking as well.

warspite1

May have been noted before, but apparently Italy has the oldest population in Europe. Almost a quarter over 65.

Yes, some of them can even remember HMS Warspite.

[Orm]

ORIGINAL: Zorch

Yes, some of them can even remember HMS Warspite.

Yes, with horror. They use true stories about HMS Warspite to scare children. And to teach them to never mess with the Royal Navy again.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Orm

ORIGINAL: Zorch

Yes, some of them can even remember HMS Warspite.

Yes, with horror. They use true stories about HMS Warspite to scare children. And to teach them to never mess with the Royal Navy again.

I am sure that they tell the girls that. But they probably also tell them to mess with the US Navy!

[wesy]

I live in the SF Bay Area and work for a tech firm. Work from home directive (which is what I do anyway), San Francisco just directed to cancel all events >=1000 people. The Golden State Warriors will be the first team in the NBA to play with an empty arena.

[Erik Rutins]

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archi ... ed/607807/

[Canoerebel]

Chickenboy may be the single most qualified person on the forum (at least, that I know of) to offer educated/experienced insight into what's going on.

I'm glad he's posting. I hope he'll continue to do so. I hope he won't be dissuaded by the fact that some (one?) of his early-on predictions missed.

[rommel222]

Greetings to All,
All colleges and universities in Albany, NY are now closed to on campus classes until at least March 27, 2020. Since I teach all online astronomy w/online labs. my online classes am not affected.

The mayor of Albany (the state capitol of NY) has decided not to cancel the St. Patrick's Day parade:
https://cbs6albany.com/news/local/coron ... day-parade

Maybe they figure people attending will be so boozed up on green beer that the alcohol content will kill Corona Virus.

[MrsWargamer]

It's likely a good time to power watch your fav war movies/anime/TV shows whatever is your thing.
Invite a buddy to binge watch with ya, instead of the usual social activities.

I'm finding it better to go for long walks instead of shop.
Better to stay inside and indulge hobbies.
Avoid concentrations of people.
Not that I wasn't already, but now I have a bigger reason I guess.

[Wuffer]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
I hope he won't be dissuaded by the fact ...

Who cares?
So what. the big battle has just begun, old warhorses will be invaluable.
His finest hour is to come.
Although not exactly my POV, I really wished at that time when reading this he were our health minister (GER)

You all are still the leading nation, not only in power projection and economy, but also in science and medicine.
What I saw and read in the last few hours let at least believe me in you folks. Just saying.
/Over and out.

[rommel222]

Greetings MrsWargamer,
Sound advice for a Nam vet:
Go Tell the Spartans:(classic Burt Lancaster ala The Train)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gpG9G2ap4js
I preferred tiger stripes over standard issue.

I chill helping my wife care for our 6 month old grandson 5 days a week.
When Julian cries I play my Honer harmonica and he calms right down and smiles.

[sPzAbt653]

NBA cancels its season !!

[Curtis Lemay]

ORIGINAL: sPzAbt653

NBA cancels its season !!

Not cancels, suspends its season.

[sPzAbt653]

Tom Hanks and Wife test positive for Coronavirus in Australia !!

[demyansk]

Cancel foreign travel, and buy toilet paper, we are out of it.
Plus, love these colleges, hey maybe they will give a discount now to the families for subpar instruction online. China corrupt

[Zovs]

Personally, I think this all just scare tactics. I do think there may be a flu going on, but its really just another flu. I also think that the pharmaceutical companies and certain governments are involved and they are both using the media to spread panic and fear. I have refused to be inoculated since I got out of the Army in 1991 and I have had the flu once in 29 years, I have had several colds but nothing like all these folks that get flu shots every year. I believe the key is eating right (I have not stepped into a McDonald's in over 20 years), exercising and taking Health Food vitamins. Plus common sense, wash your hands with soap and water and don't believe all the hype and lies you hear on a TV box or the internet. My wife also has not been inoculated in over 35 years and she has never had the flu. I think folks worry too much about nothing.

This is my personal experience and beliefs.