OT: Corona virus

[Canoerebel]

If this manages/happens to run its course in a month or so, imagine the surge in confidence/relief/exuberance as world's economies begin to ramp up and then gain steam going into the summer and the autumn. (The longer it takes for the virus to run it's course, the less resilient the economies, in all likelihood).

But there will be all kinds of collateral damage requiring government interventions, as airlines, cruise lines, and many other industries and business suffer tremendous shocks to their cash flow.

[geofflambert]

Another timeline:
Below is a timeline of Trump’s comments playing down the threat posed by the virus.

Jan. 22: “We have it totally under control.”

Jan. 24: “It will all work out well.”
China has been working very hard to contain the Coronavirus. The United States greatly appreciates their efforts and transparency. It will all work out well. In particular, on behalf of the American People, I want to thank President Xi!
4:18 PM - Jan 24, 2020
Jan. 29: “Just received a briefing on the Coronavirus in China from all of our GREAT agencies, who are also working closely with China. We will continue to monitor the ongoing developments. We have the best experts anywhere in the world, and they are on top of it 24/7!”

Jan. 30: “We think we have it very well under control. We have very little problem in this country at this moment — five. And those people are all recuperating successfully. But we’re working very closely with China and other countries, and we think it’s going to have a very good ending for it. So that I can assure you.”

Feb. 2: “Well, we pretty much shut it down coming in from China. … We can’t have thousands of people coming in who may have this problem, the coronavirus. So we’re gonna see what happens, but we did shut it down, yes.”

Feb. 7: “Nothing is easy, but [Chinese President Xi Jinping] … will be successful, especially as the weather starts to warm & the virus hopefully becomes weaker, and then gone.”
Feb 7, 2020
Just had a long and very good conversation by phone with President Xi of China. He is strong, sharp and powerfully focused on leading the counterattack on the Coronavirus. He feels they are doing very well, even building hospitals in a matter of only days. Nothing is easy, but...
@realDonaldTrump
....he will be successful, especially as the weather starts to warm & the virus hopefully becomes weaker, and then gone. Great discipline is taking place in China, as President Xi strongly leads what will be a very successful operation. We are working closely with China to help!
5:31 AM - Feb 7, 2020
Feb. 10: “I think the virus is going to be — it’s going to be fine.”

Feb. 14: “We have a very small number of people in the country, right now, with it. It’s like around 12. Many of them are getting better. Some are fully recovered already. So we’re in very good shape.”

Feb. 19: “I think it’s going to work out fine. I think when we get into April, in the warmer weather, that has a very negative effect on that and that type of a virus. So let’s see what happens, but I think it’s going to work out fine.”

Feb. 24: “The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA. … Stock Market starting to look very good to me!”

@realDonaldTrump
The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA. We are in contact with everyone and all relevant countries. CDC & World Health have been working hard and very smart. Stock Market starting to look very good to me!
4:42 PM - Feb 24, 2020
Feb. 25: “You may ask about the coronavirus, which is very well under control in our country. We have very few people with it, and the people that have it are … getting better. They’re all getting better. … As far as what we’re doing with the new virus, I think that we’re doing a great job.”

Feb. 25: “CDC and my Administration are doing a GREAT job of handling Coronavirus, including the very early closing of our borders to certain areas of the world.”

Feb. 26: “Because of all we’ve done, the risk to the American people remains very low. … When you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero. That’s a pretty good job we’ve done."

Feb. 26:

Q: This is spreading — or is going to spread, maybe, within communities. That’s the expectation.
A: It may. It may.
Q: Does that worry you?
A: No. ... No, because we’re ready for it. It is what it is. We’re ready for it. We’re really prepared. ... We hope it doesn’t spread. There’s a chance that it won’t spread too, and there’s a chance that it will, and then it’s a question of at what level.
Feb. 27: “Only a very small number in U.S., & China numbers look to be going down. All countries working well together!”

Feb. 28: “I think it’s really going well. We did something very fortunate: we closed up to certain areas of the world very, very early — far earlier than we were supposed to. I took a lot of heat for doing it. It turned out to be the right move, and we only have 15 people and they are getting better, and hopefully they’re all better. There’s one who is quite sick, but maybe he’s gonna be fine. … We’re prepared for the worst, but we think we’re going to be very fortunate."

Feb. 28: “It’s going to disappear. One day, it’s like a miracle, it will disappear.”

Feb. 29: “We’re the number-one travel destination anywhere in the world, yet we have far fewer cases of the disease than even countries with much less travel or a much smaller population.”

March 4: “Some people will have this at a very light level and won’t even go to a doctor or hospital, and they’ll get better. There are many people like that.”
March 5: “With approximately 100,000 CoronaVirus cases worldwide, and 3,280 deaths, the United States, because of quick action on closing our borders, has, as of now, only 129 cases (40 Americans brought in) and 11 deaths.”


@realDonaldTrump
With approximately 100,000 CoronaVirus cases worldwide, and 3,280 deaths, the United States, because of quick action on closing our borders, has, as of now, only 129 cases (40 Americans brought in) and 11 deaths. We are working very hard to keep these numbers as low as possible!
11:34 AM - Mar 5, 2020
March 6: “We did an interview on Fox last night, a town hall. I think it was very good. And I said, ‘Calm. You have to be calm. It’ll go away.' ”

March 7: “It came out of China, and we heard about it. And made a good move: We closed it down; we stopped it. Otherwise — the head of CDC said last night that you would have thousands of more problems if we didn’t shut it down very early. That was a very early shutdown, which is something we got right."

March 8: Retweets a story about Surgeon General Jerome Adams playing down the risk of coronavirus for Trump personally.
@thedailybeast
Surgeon General Jerome Adams used his comments to downplay the risk of coronavirus to the president https://trib.al/BkZPHz3


Surgeon General to Jake Tapper: Trump Is ‘Healthier’ Than I Am
The surgeon general used his comments to downplay the risk of coronavirus to the president.
12:39 PM - Mar 8, 2020
March 9: “The Fake News Media and their partner, the Democrat Party, is doing everything within its semi-considerable power (it used to be greater!) to inflame the CoronaVirus situation, far beyond what the facts would warrant. Surgeon General, ‘The risk is low to the average American.’ ”

March 9: “So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!”

@realDonaldTrump
So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!
9:47 AM - Mar 9, 2020
March 10: “As you know, it’s about 600 cases, it’s about 26 deaths, within our country. And had we not acted quickly, that number would have been substantially more.”

March 10: “And it hit the world. And we’re prepared, and we’re doing a great job with it. And it will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away.”

March 11: “I think we’re going to get through it very well.”

March 12: “It’s going to go away. ... The United States, because of what I did and what the administration did with China, we have 32 deaths at this point … when you look at the kind of numbers that you’re seeing coming out of other countries, it’s pretty amazing when you think of it.”

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: Erik Rutins

ORIGINAL: witpqs
Erik can say for sure, but I think he meant the overall mortality rate would be higher than otherwise if/when the health care system is overwhelmed, and that is what the experts have said IIRC. That's the news coming from Italy, too.

Yes, that was exactly my point - that the mortality rates we've seen so far can easily rise if not enough hospital beds are available for those who need them. With good hospital care, it's mostly only the elderly or chronically ill who are dying, but there are many others who are being hospitalized. If a smaller percentage can access good hospital care while sick, their chance of a good outcome will decrease.

Regards,

- Erik

One of the Public Health doctors being interviewed on a news channel mentioned that Doctors would then be forced into brutal choices. If there are three people needing a ventilator to keep them alive and only one is available, which do you choose? I have already accepted that, at my age, I would not likely be one of the chosen so my will already says "no heroic measures" and my NOK know that. Anything to make their and the physicians decision easier.

That literally is what they are already doing in Italy. That's hard news, not rumor. The government health authorities have issued written guidance on the matter.

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

If this manages/happens to run its course in a month or so, imagine the surge in confidence/relief/exuberance as world's economies begin to ramp up and then gain steam going into the summer and the autumn. (The longer it takes for the virus to run it's course, the less resilient the economies, in all likelihood).

But there will be all kinds of collateral damage requiring government interventions, as airlines, cruise lines, and many other industries and business suffer tremendous shocks to their cash flow.

A very big if.

Side note - I do like how you are engaging with the evidence on this. Need more of it in general.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

If this manages/happens to run its course in a month or so, imagine the surge in confidence/relief/exuberance as world's economies begin to ramp up and then gain steam going into the summer and the autumn. (The longer it takes for the virus to run it's course, the less resilient the economies, in all likelihood).

But there will be all kinds of collateral damage requiring government interventions, as airlines, cruise lines, and many other industries and business suffer tremendous shocks to their cash flow.

A very big if.

Side note - I do like how you are engaging with the evidence on this. Need more of it in general.

Recommend you listen to/view the interview with the infectious disease researcher Michael Osterholm (linked earlier).

Here is the text intro of him that was given:

Michael Osterholm is an internationally recognized expert in infectious disease epidemiology. He is Regents Professor, McKnight Presidential Endowed Chair in Public Health, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), Distinguished Teaching Professor in the Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, a professor in the Technological Leadership Institute, College of Science and Engineering, and an adjunct professor in the Medical School, all at the University of Minnesota. Look for his book "Deadliest Enemy: Our War Against Deadly Germs" for more info. https://amzn.to/2IAzeLe

He was quite clear we are in for a lot more than another month. And a vaccine ready very quickly? That's just "happy talk".

[witpqs]

Current:

[witpqs]

Some of the current country info:

[Canoerebel]

The "exponential growth curve" in China lasted from about 1/24/2020 to about 3/1/2020. Five weeks.

Western Europe is probably two or three weeks into its own exponential curve. It may last longer than China's did. How much?

The USA/Western Hemisphere is about 10 days into its exponential curve. Will it experience a similar outcome to China, or not?

The virus escaped containment and had quite a period of time of unhampered growth in China; then China instituted strong countermeasures and had a darned quick taper-off.

I don't think Western countries (Europe and USA, etc.) were bushwhacked to the extent that China was - after all, it began in China with no notice and little fanfare; in the West, a fair amount of notice and more fanfare. The West has only now instituted varying degrees of lockdown. In Europe, perhaps a week or less. In some ways, the USA is ahead, mostly because notice was taken of what was going on in Europe.

China, South Korea, Singapore, Japan and other "first gen" countries are not teetering on the brink of annihilation.

From a numbers/trends standpoint - and everything I've seen in my life about "the sky is falling" (countered by "Pollyanna" responses) plus the quality of healthcare (at least in the West), I do not foresee anything like what is being predicted.

I'm going out on limbs here. If I'm wrong, I will lack any credibility and will have to assume life as a hermit in the woods. So be it. But the numbers aren't consistent with disaster.

[alanschu]

ORIGINAL: witpqs
That literally is what they are already doing in Italy. That's hard news, not rumor. The government health authorities have issued written guidance on the matter.

Yeah, I was increasingly "okay best be careful" but Italy's breakdown was a definite "oh shit" moment for me.

[mind_messing]

Experts wrong, CR right, nothing to see here.

[jeffk3510]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The "exponential growth curve" in China lasted from about 1/24/2020 to about 3/1/2020. Five weeks.

Western Europe is probably two or three weeks into its own exponential curve. It may last longer than China's did. How much?

The USA/Western Hemisphere is about 10 days into its exponential curve. Will it experience a similar outcome to China, or not?

The virus escaped containment and had quite a period of time of unhampered growth in China; then China instituted strong countermeasures and had a darned quick taper-off.

I don't think Western countries (Europe and USA, etc.) were bushwhacked to the extent that China was - after all, it began in China with no notice and little fanfare; in the West, a fair amount of notice and more fanfare. The West has only now instituted varying degrees of lockdown. In Europe, perhaps a week or less. In some ways, the USA is ahead, mostly because notice was taken of what was going on in Europe.

China, South Korea, Singapore, Japan and other "first gen" countries are not teetering on the brink of annihilation.

From a numbers/trends standpoint - and everything I've seen in my life about "the sky is falling" (countered by "Pollyanna" responses) plus the quality of healthcare (at least in the West), I do not foresee anything like what is being predicted.

I'm going out on limbs here. If I'm wrong, I will lack any credibility and will have to assume life as a hermit in the woods. So be it. But the numbers aren't consistent with disaster.

Dan - you are blessed with common sense. Not a lot of people are. The social media world we live in is the reason the world has lost it's mind. It's flu season, and our world leaders are absolutely destroying things at the moment. You don't do anything different during flu season every year when a new strand comes out. We're always concerned around flu season here as one of my children doesn't have an immune system like other kids his age. However, we're not doing anything different than we've ever done. If I lived on the coast next to a major international airport, I might feel differently. I live in a rural community of 5,000 people... A lot of people die in car accidents, yet I drive my truck to and form work every single day.

The most disappointing thing the last few months is how much fear is going around right now. All I did was double my 401k contributions and buy cheap ass vacation tickets. If my 90 year old grandmas catch it, they're toast. If my 7 year old boy catches it, he's toast. However, that's the case with anything for them really. The media is poison. That is all there is to it in my opinion.

I respect anyone else and their opinions. It's business as usual around here. If our state (KS)/country decides to quarantine everything and tell me what I can or can't do, I will be very disappointed. This is bringing out the worst in some people. Fighting over water and TP in the isles of the stores? Jeepers

[geofflambert]

"I'm going out on limbs here. If I'm wrong, I will lack any credibility and will have to assume life as a hermit in the woods. So be it."

I thought he already was.

[geofflambert]

This is not the flu. It appears the mortality may be around 7%. No flu including 1918 was like that. Containment does seem to be underway, though. We've never really "contained" the flu.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: geofflambert

"I'm going out on limbs here. If I'm wrong, I will lack any credibility and will have to assume life as a hermit in the woods. So be it."

I thought he already was.

If he was and if he were still living in Georgia, he just might be making moonshine. Of course, if he was making moonshine he probably would not post pictures of his still. [:(]

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

If this manages/happens to run its course in a month or so, imagine the surge in confidence/relief/exuberance as world's economies begin to ramp up and then gain steam going into the summer and the autumn. (The longer it takes for the virus to run it's course, the less resilient the economies, in all likelihood).

But there will be all kinds of collateral damage requiring government interventions, as airlines, cruise lines, and many other industries and business suffer tremendous shocks to their cash flow.

This is from GreyJoy. I reached out to see how he is doing through all of this.

Hi erik,

nice to hear from you my friend. It's been a while
Here it's a mess, much worse than what we all expected few weeks ago. Much worse than what the authorities are telling us. I have many friends who are doctors at the hospitals and they say the situation is incredibly grief. Young people (20, 30, 40 years old) are dying even if in healthy conditions. And the worst part is that it seems there's no way to isolate or contain the virus.
Yesterday evening the Gov locked down everything. Cities seem like just before the apocalypse. No one's around. Very few cars. People have emptied the supermarkets.
The economy is crumbling down fast. Very fast.
You should see Venice...seems like when you read about the 1348 plague... the city is simply dead.
Not only the stock exchange markets. My clients are on the edge of bankruptcy and nobody is paying anybody at all.
And things will not get better. Experts say it will take at least another month in order to see the curve of the contagious decrease. One more month of lockdown. Don't know how we'll get over this.

Stay safe Erik and don't underestimate this emergency. I've heard in UK Johnson is doing like Trump in the US...denying the evidence. Yesterday at Anfield there were 50k people massed together... madness! Smart-work if you can and avoid dinners and non necessary contacts with everybody but Rachel and your son for few weeks. It's a small price to pay in order to stay safe.

Ciao my friend

Keep in touch

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: geofflambert

It appears the mortality may be around 7%.

warspite1

Where is that from?

[JohnDillworth]

[/quote]

he "exponential growth curve" in China lasted from about 1/24/2020 to about 3/1/2020. Five weeks.

Western Europe is probably two or three weeks into its own exponential curve. It may last longer than China's did. How much?

The USA/Western Hemisphere is about 10 days into its exponential curve. Will it experience a similar outcome to China, or not?

Dan, How can you expect a China/Korea outcome when we are not doing what China/Korea are doing? We are doing nothing of substance and you expect the curve to level off by cancelling sporting events and concerts? China/Korea are taking drastic actions and achieving acceptable results. We are doing nothing of the kind

[alanschu]

If my 90 year old grandmas catch it, they're toast. If my 7 year old boy catches it, he's toast. However, that's the case with anything for them really. The media is poison. That is all there is to it in my opinion.

You've certainly done a good enough job of avoiding information given you seem to think your 7 year old catching it is a death sentence....

[jeffk3510]

ORIGINAL: alanschu

If my 90 year old grandmas catch it, they're toast. If my 7 year old boy catches it, he's toast. However, that's the case with anything for them really. The media is poison. That is all there is to it in my opinion.

You've certainly done a good enough job of avoiding information given you seem to think your 7 year old catching it is a death sentence....

Ha! Read my entire post. Go fuck yourself

[JohnDillworth]

Wow! GreyJoy is heard from! Sorry the news is not better but I am sure glad to hear from him. I'm so sorry he never turns up in the forums.