OT: Corona virus

[Canoerebel]

Witpqs, I was working on the same chart while you posted it.

These are some of my thoughts:

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Zorch

ORIGINAL: USSAmerica

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel



It's difficult to maintain decorum, because this is the internet. In real life, people of differing opinions sit down and (mostly) respectfully discuss things without resorting to name calling and open contempt for the viewpoints of others. That's the environment I'm accustomed to and what I prefer. In here, unfortunately, several members repeatedly show contempt for others. Sometimes it's outright, sometimes it's a bit more veiled, as in "you shouldn't stick your head in the sand" comments that imply that those who are looking at the data in different ways are not entitled to respect.

Chickenboy is probably the most qualified person to comment in this community, yet some are casting aspersions at him, either personally or calling into question his judgment.

Those acting in this way don't see it. They've helped make the environment so toxic that Chickenboy is discouraged from participating.

I cast aspersions at Chickenboy personally, because I know him personally. [:D]

I do NOT call into question his judgement relating to his professional training and always look forward to reading his take on matters such as this discussion topic.

+1 Some people interpret everything politically.
+1 Chickenboy as a sage voice of counsel.

My local supermarket is sold out of OJ! Milk and toilet paper are bad enough, but I can't function with 2 glasses of OJ every morning.

Do you dilute the OJ with vodka or rum? The last OJ that I was given, I gave away since I have no vodka or rum.

[witpqs]

I realize that where I wrote "15% increase in active cases" that number is off. I did subtract new deaths, but I didn't have a figure for new recovered cases. I doubt the number is off by very much.

[durnedwolf]

Yup - toilet paper is getting to be a prized commodity.

[witpqs]

Dan, some numbers from France must have just come in.

[Canoerebel]

If memory serves, heart-of-Europe countries like Italy, France, Germany, and Spain began dealing with this about three weeks ago. If that's true, those countries should be about a week to ten days ahead of us on the exponential curve, so I'd expect the curve to begin to flatten there about a week or ten days before they begin to flatten here.

[Spikeosx]

A lot of misinformation on this forum, but some has been good.

edit: not a reply to witqps, I must have hit wrong key.

[MakeeLearn]

TAR and FEATHERS!!!


Couple Makes More Than $100,000 Reselling Lysol Wipes Amid Coronavirus Fears: “We’re Hustlers”

https://balleralert.com/profiles/blogs/ ... ronavirus/

"A Vancouver couple is capitalizing on the growing hysteria surrounding the spread of coronavirus.⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀

According to The Star, Manny Ranga and his wife Violeta Perez parked their Ford F-150 outside of a Costco near downtown Vancouver this week with stacks upon stacks of “Lysol disinfecting wipes.”

The couple claimed they’ve made over $100,000 so far with their “business model.” They hit up each Costco retailer within the area, and racked up on as many Lysol wipes and liquid cleaners they could get their hands on, spending thousands of dollars at a time and then reselling them on Amazon under their vendor name “Violeta & Sons Buying and Selling, Ltd.”

Ranga revealed that one $20 six-pack of wipes could fetch 4 times as much online. The couple stocked their valued wipes in a storage area on their property, and in turn, resold them for $89."

[alanschu]

It was really surreal seeing pictures of them legit hauling full pallets of the stuff in the Costco parking lot.

I'm surprised it was allowed to be honest.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I started this thread to get insight from the thoughtful members of the community.

People like Chiekenboy, who has a particular expertise in this area.

But good men couldn't keep themselves under control and became incredibly offensive.

I'm out of here.

The term "deep state" is itself incredibly offensive and pejorative. I wish you would've scrubbed it from the headline at minimum.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

TAR and FEATHERS!!!


Couple Makes More Than $100,000 Reselling Lysol Wipes Amid Coronavirus Fears: “We’re Hustlers”

https://balleralert.com/profiles/blogs/ ... ronavirus/

"A Vancouver couple is capitalizing on the growing hysteria surrounding the spread of coronavirus.⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀

According to The Star, Manny Ranga and his wife Violeta Perez parked their Ford F-150 outside of a Costco near downtown Vancouver this week with stacks upon stacks of “Lysol disinfecting wipes.”

The couple claimed they’ve made over $100,000 so far with their “business model.” They hit up each Costco retailer within the area, and racked up on as many Lysol wipes and liquid cleaners they could get their hands on, spending thousands of dollars at a time and then reselling them on Amazon under their vendor name “Violeta & Sons Buying and Selling, Ltd.”

Ranga revealed that one $20 six-pack of wipes could fetch 4 times as much online. The couple stocked their valued wipes in a storage area on their property, and in turn, resold them for $89."

TBH... while I would never do such a thing, I can't really fault them for doing something they're allowed to do.

Want that to stop, gotta pass anti-gouging laws like NYC has. Didn't bother to pass anti-gouging laws? Well...

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

TAR and FEATHERS!!!


Couple Makes More Than $100,000 Reselling Lysol Wipes Amid Coronavirus Fears: “We’re Hustlers”

https://balleralert.com/profiles/blogs/ ... ronavirus/

"A Vancouver couple is capitalizing on the growing hysteria surrounding the spread of coronavirus.⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀

According to The Star, Manny Ranga and his wife Violeta Perez parked their Ford F-150 outside of a Costco near downtown Vancouver this week with stacks upon stacks of “Lysol disinfecting wipes.”

The couple claimed they’ve made over $100,000 so far with their “business model.” They hit up each Costco retailer within the area, and racked up on as many Lysol wipes and liquid cleaners they could get their hands on, spending thousands of dollars at a time and then reselling them on Amazon under their vendor name “Violeta & Sons Buying and Selling, Ltd.”

Ranga revealed that one $20 six-pack of wipes could fetch 4 times as much online. The couple stocked their valued wipes in a storage area on their property, and in turn, resold them for $89."

Well, now people will know where to get it without buying it . . .

[Anachro]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

TBH... while I would never do such a thing, I can't really fault them for doing something they're allowed to do.

Depends on the state; some states have price gouging laws.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Witpqs, I was working on the same chart while you posted it.

These are some of my thoughts:

Here's a useful explainer to go along with CR's post, and the money shot of the chart contained within the post. https://www.vox.com/2020/3/10/21171481/ ... ncellation



It's also useful to point out that this disease has the capability of causing a severe, sudden spike in the need for hospitalization, which is why it can not and should not be compared to the seasonal flu except in the very broadest and historical sense (e.g., "the 1918 flu pandemic killed 675K Americans and COVID-19 killed X Americans" after the fact).

[Sammy5IsAlive]

I'd be very cautious about taking too much optimism from the Chinese data at this point. All it shows is really what you would expect from a virus of this nature which is that if you lock everything down the increase in case numbers will slow down and indeed will eventually stop. The problem is that at some point those restrictions will have to be lifted and in the absence of any vaccine the case numbers will start to rise again.

All of the available information at this point suggests that the only thing that will stop the virus is 'herd immunity' (i.e. the point when enough of the population has had the virus and developed immunity that there are not enough potential carriers to sustain an increase in cases) or a vaccine. If we assume that the latter is some way off then the choice for the governments of affected countries is really one of how you get to that 'herd immunity' point.

The thinking of the government here in the UK seems to be based on two assumptions
a) that we are in this for the long haul - that both as a nation and as a worldwide population we are past the point where the virus can be contained and isolated.
b) that, particularly in the West, there is only so much resilience to large scale shutdowns as we have seen in China both in terms of economic resilience and in terms of public adherence to those types of measures. So by shutting down early you potentially run the risk of getting good short term results but then run the risk of reaching a point where you are no longer able to continue the shutdown either politically and/or economically and are forced to lift the measures just at the point where the virus has most momentum.

Put a different way you could have a lower 'critical point' at which you shut things down which will result in repeated short term shut-downs as the case numbers increase and contract. The UK government's thinking seems to be that the more shutdowns you have the less effective and the more economically damaging they will be.

If I was going to speculate I would suggest that the UK is aiming to have had enough people infected by October that the virus has become self limiting and they don't have the dual problem of an ongoing CV19 outbreak and the inevitable spike of flu cases we will get next winter. Obviously nobody in a political position can say this but from a UK perspective at least this is the best time to be having an outbreak - the flu season has almost passed so there is the medical capacity to deal with cases and at the same time we are not at summer yet so there are two natural windows either side of summer to allow people to get infected and build the populations immunity, leaving enough political/economic capacity to make a couple of large scale shut downs if things appear to be getting out of hand.

The above (and particularly the last paragraph) sounds counter intuitive - how on earth can it be a positive thing for people to be infected? But it is worth remembering that for the large majority of people this is a virus that will be recovered from.

I'm by no means cheerleading for what we are doing in the UK. For me there is a very big omission in what we are doing so far in that if you are working on letting the virus spread amongst the healthy population you need to be taking measures to protect the minority of people who are much more at risk - for me (just going off the information that is publicly available) there has not been nearly enough action on this. I would say that my impression is that our approach has very much been driven by the expert medical advice that is being given to the government rather than political expediency (I do not say that as a slight against any other country's approach - more that I am surprised that this is the case from a government and wider political class that, as we have seen with Brexit, has had a tendency to prioritise broadbrush political ideology over the more technical concerns of 'experts')

[Anachro]

Let's not forget the Chinese government internally is under enormous pressure to lift the lock down as soon as possible to head off greater domestic economic damage. I definitely wouldn't put it past Xi and others in his council deciding to lift things before they probably should.

[Jorge_Stanbury]

my local walmart run out of toilet paper, pasta, tuna cans [:@]

I was able to buy a lot of food, but things are going to get creative once I finish my last TP roll in a few days [:(]

[jeffk3510]

ORIGINAL: alanschu

Ha! Read my entire post. Go **** yourself

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Man, Alanshu, your words were uncalled for and unkind. Jeff has a seven-year-old son whose immunity is compromised; so he's unusually vulnerable. I hope you'll apologize.

I totally did miss that. I'm sorry JeffK.

It's all good man

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Jorge_Stanbury

my local walmart run out of toilet paper, pasta, tuna cans [:@]

I was able to buy a lot of food, but things are going to get creative once I finish my last TP roll in a few days [:(]

Maybe I should take my limited resources, buy toilet paper, and resell it . . .

Personally, I like wide, soft, damp leaves when I am out in the woods . . .
But NO leaflets of three . . . [X(]

[Zorch]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: Jorge_Stanbury

my local walmart run out of toilet paper, pasta, tuna cans [:@]

I was able to buy a lot of food, but things are going to get creative once I finish my last TP roll in a few days [:(]

Maybe I should take my limited resources, buy toilet paper, and resell it . . .

Personally, I like wide, soft, damp leaves when I am out in the woods . . .
But NO leaflets of three . . . [X(]

You learned that the hard way, I bet....