OT: Corona virus

[pontiouspilot]

Damm....and just as I was going to stand on road selling toilet paper for $5/roll!!.....god knows that might help take sting outa Dow thumping I took.

[Scott_USN]

ORIGINAL: pontiouspilot

Damm....and just as I was going to stand on road selling toilet paper for $5/roll!!.....god knows that might help take sting outa Dow thumping I took.

Right on! 20 dollars a roll on the side of the road. Probably get rich with these clowns running around!

[Scott_USN]

Hell at this point I just want to get the thing and be over it.

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Scott_USN

Hell at this point I just want to get the thing and be over it.

warspite1

I'd second that emotion. This is now really boring. I was supposed to see Mickey again in Florida this summer but that looks like it's not going to happen..... [:(]

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Erik Rutins

I'd like to post a few things I've found in terms of what might work to make this virus less lethal. A lot of clinical trials in China will be at the results stage in April, so expect more news then.

First, Chlorquine Phosphate and Hydroxychlorquine Phosphate. These seem to be helping and South Korea seems to be using these and Zinc as their go-to at this point.

"BREAKING: S. Korea significantly reducing lethality of coronavirus by prescribing a chloroquine diphosphate salt + zinc treatment combo to block COVID-19 viral enzyme @ 500 mg per day of chloroquine + zinc for 10 days"

I just saw this too. Very positive news and I hope there is a big supply of this around.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Erik Rutins

I'd like to post a few things I've found in terms of what might work to make this virus less lethal. A lot of clinical trials in China will be at the results stage in April, so expect more news then.

First, Chlorquine Phosphate and Hydroxychlorquine Phosphate. These seem to be helping and South Korea seems to be using these and Zinc as their go-to at this point.

"BREAKING: S. Korea significantly reducing lethality of coronavirus by prescribing a chloroquine diphosphate salt + zinc treatment combo to block COVID-19 viral enzyme @ 500 mg per day of chloroquine + zinc for 10 days"

I just saw this too. Very positive news and I hope there is a big supply of this around.

You should be able to get zinc throat lozenges at a store or a pharmacy in the anti-cold section.

[Canoerebel]

The current tallies as of the 15th.

Russia isn't listed near the top, because its reports are low. They seem oddly low. Russia has either had minimal exposure or isn't reporting fully or accurately. Given what's going on to its south and west, probably the latter.

Edited to Clarify: The USA daily death total of 3 is for just a part of the day. The past three days or so, it has been around 6-8 each day (the highest total we've had is 8, three times).

[Canoerebel]

This chart is interesting and bears watching.

Reports of mortality fluctuate each day, depending on when a country reports and whether it does. And it's too early to make confident predictions from early data. If this pandemic continues to spiral out of control, trends on the chart should reflect that. And when the pandemic begins to taper off, that will be reflected here (eventually).

Some of the fluctuations may be due to the rise and fall in Asia, now replaced by the rise in Italy and Europe, and presumably another surge when the USA and the Western Hemisphere develop fully. We may be a week behind Europe, give or take.

[Canoerebel]

Number of cases is a highly suspect number, given lack of and delays in testing.

Mortality statistics should be more reliable. There are subsets there that would be important (did the deceased have contributing underlying conditions, age, confinement, etc.), but overall mortality numbers should reflect a pandemic and the scale of that pandemic...and when it is tapering off and coming to an end.

[Canoerebel]

This tracks South Korea's experience, which was similar to China's, and offers hope to other countries.

As the epidemic peaked in Korea two weeks ago, mortality percentage matched the recovery percentage - as many people had died as had recovered. Gradually, in the two weeks since then, the percentage of recoveries has far exceeded mortality.

In Italy, currently, the percentage of recoveries is slightly better than mortality. Perhaps it's situation is improving.

In the USA, the percentage of mortalities exceed the percentage of recoveries. If the emergency methods enacted plus the quality of healthcare kicks in, that will change eventually. We're still dealing with small numbers in the USA (both mortality and recover and, really, active cases reported), so it's too early to know where we stand.

[Canoerebel]

A favorable trend in Italy. Caveat: there is a chance that Italy is overwhelmed at the moment, so that reporting lags. That may or may not be true, but bears keeping in mind while looking to see the trend solidify over the next few days, if that should happen.

[witpqs]

Another one, also recorded Friday, from Peter Attia.


https://peterattiamd.com/covid-19-update-03152020/


In this episode, Dr. Paul Grewal, M.D. joins Peter to discuss what they have learned in the past week in the midst of the rapid changes surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic. Their conversation touches on both optimism and uncertainty: actionable steps we can take to improve the situation with the understanding that it is too late for viral containment. Specifically, Peter and Paul discuss some promising drug treatments, reasons for isolating-behavior adoption, and what they are personally instituting in their own lives. 


Disclaimer: This is information accurate as of March 13, 2020, when it was recorded.

[Canoerebel]

Unfortunately it seems like Spain is about to undergo the same kind of thing Italy's been dealing with the past week or two. It seems likely that France will follow suit.

But the underlying numbers continue to be somewhat encouraging. We have a good picture from China and South Korea. It will be essential to see how things go in Italy over the next week, but some early numbers and trends are encouraging. If that proves true, it's likely to be similar in other countries in Europe, followed by America, etc. And those countries that experienced on-set later than others, due to distance or whatever, may have learned enough, and may be able to implement things soon enough, to avoid or dampen an Italy-like experience.

To this point, China and South Korea didn't experience catastrophic numbers. The deaths, sickness and impact on people and economies are real, but the number of deaths (the most reliable statistic, to this early point) are far less than a seasonal flu. Will that happen in Italy? I think so, though I'm not yet positive. But the numbers and trends are modestly encouraging, this early on.

There will be fluctuations in other countries, such as Singapore and Malaysia and perhaps Germany showing surprisingly low death rates while some others will pop the other way. But, overall, I'll be surprised if the trends don't follow what we're beginning to see elsewhere.

Those are observations based upon reports by apparently reputable sites, along with what I read in here and from some mainline news organizations. I am not plugged into social media, so I'm not privy to what may be going on there, but I suspect it's feeding a sense of doom, much as the media typically does. In some ways, that may be good as it gets people off their duffs and acting. But aside from the hysteria that's evident, the underlying numbers may be encouraging. And the level of response and quality of healthcare in countries now experiencing exponential growth should make a difference.

Over the next 24 hours, Italy will be key. If it mushrooms again, my optimism will dampen a bit. If the current trend continues, then we've got something to work with.

[Kursk1943]

My trip planned for tomorrow to Spain for a holiday week was cancelled today, no flights anymore, because Spain declared the state of emergency yesterday. People have to stay at home, non essential shops will be closed. In Germany schools and universities will be closed from tomorrow on for at least 4 weeks. In Berlin clubs and bars are closed, no more soccer matches, no more concerts and so on. I think we will follow the way Spain and Italy are already going within one week. Shops are still full, toilet paper still available!

[Encircled]

UK now considering voluntary isolation for up to four months for over-70s

Panic buying in full swing sadly, but plenty of stock available

Not sure the UK government are up to it at the moment, but they do appear to be swinging more behind the global effort rather than what looks like a bit of ad-hoc social engineering.

[witpqs]

Friends had trip leaving today US to Australia for almost two weeks stay. Cancelled, as upon arrival in Australia they would have been subject to the (newly implemented) 14-day quarantine.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Friends had trip leaving today US to Australia for almost two weeks stay. Cancelled, as upon arrival in Australia they would have been subject to the (newly implemented) 14-day quarantine.

Tell them to look at the bright side, at least they weren't in the air when the quarantine was established!

[RFalvo69]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Unfortunately it seems like Spain is about to undergo the same kind of thing Italy's been dealing with the past week or two. It seems likely that France will follow suit.

The problem with these (and other) countries is that they had the opportunity to look at Italy and be better prepared when their turn came. They didn't.

I saw a story about Spain: on (or around) March, 8th they held big political rallies, big marches to commemorate Women's Day etc. At the same time here in Italy we were already almost on lockdown, with all forms of gatherings forbidden. Women's Day was respected by saluting women at a distance - and with stories on televisions showing the women on the "frontlines": doctors, nurses, researchers etc.

But, no. In Spain (and other places, like the UK) people still went to watch soccer matches, gathered, embraced, kissed... I mean, what could possibly go wrong?

[castor troy]

Austria is getting totally locked down from now on... crazy

[Canoerebel]

Gents, see the remarkable post by RFalvo in the General thread about the virus. He lives in Italy and posted at length yesterday.

RFalvo, how're things there today? Good luck.

The European countries were at a disadvantage too, being so close to Italy in timing of the outbreak. But there's no doubt Italy's experience hastened reaction eventually.

And that's certainly the case in the US and some other countries. I think Europe triggered a much sharper reaction by the USA. We went from business as usual on Wednesday, in most places, to serious action on Thursday.