OT - The New Coronavirus

[rico21]

After read over and over,
I have the impression that the hospital figures that we are given
are true.
However, can someone tell me the column of coronavirus deaths outside the hospital?

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

..
We had been comparing cases to deaths (5833/156478 = 3.7%).
But, we should compare recovered to deaths (5833/75844 = 7.7%), since those are the cases that have resolved the life vs. death issue (the rest have not).

...

Nope, you never sample on the outcome, especially with an unknown N (since too many countries are not testing properly we don't know how many people have a mild dose) or with a changing N (ie people are both infecting and recovering).

If you want to check the mathematic proofs suggest read Bayes (an English clergyman from the late 18C with time on his hands) but the flaw is in the reasoning it leads to.

[TulliusDetritus]

ORIGINAL: rico21

After read over and over,
I have the impression that the hospital figures that we are given
are true.
However, can someone tell me the column of coronavirus deaths outside the hospital?

Good question. If they don't, that would increase the current "official" mortality rate. News from Italy are horrible: ambulances not arriving... people dying at home... corpses not removed.

"Italian actor Luca Franzese [film Gomorrah] pleaded with authorities in Italy to collect his sister's body after she died of coronavirus in their home"

Terrifying.

[Red2112]

Thanks to those for there support. To all, remember this has to be a joint operation, this has nothing to do with left, right, up or down wing! Merit should be given to those who deserve it, no matter what regimen they are. Let´s be mature about this...

[TulliusDetritus]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe
That would be 60 million people to test in the Wuhan area alone, is it worth it? Are you going to personally pay for it? If not you, then whom?

That's China's decision not yours. To answer your question, technically China already paid that sum: they stopped their economy, a very drastic measure that shows the mighty strenght and energy of the dragon.

Meanwhile in the west... trembling because the economy might collapse. The signal you're sending and everyone gets -even the last village idiot in Zimbabwe: sheer weakness. Enjoy.

[Red2112]

Situation in Spain...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2rZ_Qqyyb5M

People can stay home, but will see who will pay the bill´s, that goes for most goverments. Lucky enough, we have free health care here in Spain, but supplys are short worlwide. Will see how those countrys with private health tackle this, as well as what happens to the poor and homeless!

[Red2112]

ECDC data/map...
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/novel-coronavirus-china

While the video above shows a full equiped team taken the first case into the ambulance, the truth is that in the coming days such measures were not taken. The ambulance team that took my mom from the nursing home to the hospital had NO protection at all, while they knew that she could have been infected. This brings alot of negligence to the scene of how the saturation can cause overload, tied to the lack of prevision. Some funural companies have refused to take on any victims of the COVID-19, which also goes to show how this will impact socially.

The decision to lockdown a country is not a easy one to take, the economical impact this can have is so drastic that it´s obvious that such a decision is a tough one, while also taking into account the social aspect of a lockdown. All of a sudden you are telling people to stay home, among other things! For those of us who did not live through WWII, this gives us a closer look at how it must have been in those days. Need to write, it helps me keep my mind off of things...

[TulliusDetritus]

One number that might be crucially true.

South Korea's numbers are confirming that if hospitals are not overwhelmed the real (= developed, well organised + accessible healthcare state) death rate might be as low as 0,5%.

https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mi ... 0&bid=0030

Massive testing + selective lockdown if necessary. As the Chinese, a highly competent bunch. Good for them. Two sort of societies: those that will do whatever it takes and those that won't. Strategies, approaches may be slightly different but the spirit is the same... there [;)]

PS now of course you have to list those that reach this "real" level

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: TulliusDetritus

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe
That would be 60 million people to test in the Wuhan area alone, is it worth it? Are you going to personally pay for it? If not you, then whom?

That's China's decision not yours. To answer your question, technically China already paid that sum: they stopped their economy, a very drastic measure that shows the mighty strenght and energy of the dragon.

Meanwhile in the west... trembling because the economy might collapse. The signal you're sending and everyone gets -even the last village idiot in Zimbabwe: sheer weakness. Enjoy.

No, I am not sending that message. The cost is also ongoing until the people have either caught the virus or it is no longer in the population. China has not paid that sum, China has paid the cost of attempting to control the contagion there and it appears to be working. But once those controls are removed, either all at once or a little at a time, the contagion may return.

Also, a lot of the factories that are shut down are needed to produce the products needed elsewhere by the medical staffs to fight the contagion.

If the costs of the tests are $130 each time a person is tested and they may be tested multiple times, who pays for the test and where do the supplies come from? Will they be able to test enough to stop this?

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

But, we should compare recovered to deaths (5833/75844 = 7.7%), since those are the cases that have resolved the life vs. death issue (the rest have not).

I have to correct that slightly: Total resolved cases equal the total of recovered + deaths = 81677. And the new death rate is 5833/81677 = 7.1%.

Those are the total known cases. Many cases may never be reported because they were mild or no symptoms developed.

[Lobster]

ORIGINAL: TulliusDetritus



That's China's decision not yours. To answer your question, technically China already paid that sum: they stopped their economy, a very drastic measure that shows the mighty strenght and energy of the dragon.

Meanwhile in the west... trembling because the economy might collapse. The signal you're sending and everyone gets -even the last village idiot in Zimbabwe: sheer weakness. Enjoy.

What a load of politically motivated tripe. [8|]

[TulliusDetritus]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe
If the costs of the tests are $130 each time a person is tested and they may be tested multiple times, who pays for the test and where do the supplies come from? Will they be able to test enough to stop this?

But the strategy they chose did not need to test "60 million people" to fight and defeat -apparently- this virus. You're talking about a problem that does not exist in the first place.

Could they afford to pay that sum? Are you serious? China's GDP is around 13.000 USD billion. And you doubt they can afford errr 8 billion??

re the 2008 mess, China's stimulus package in November 2008 = US$ 586 billion [;)]

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: TulliusDetritus

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe
If the costs of the tests are $130 each time a person is tested and they may be tested multiple times, who pays for the test and where do the supplies come from? Will they be able to test enough to stop this?

But the strategy they chose did not need to test "60 million people" to fight and defeat -apparently- this virus. You're talking about a problem that does not exist in the first place.

Could they afford to pay that sum? Are you serious? China's GDP is around 13.000 USD billion. And you doubt they can't afford errr 8 billion??

re the 2008 mess, China's stimulus package in November 2008 = US$ 586 billion [;)]

The problem exists and will continue to exist until the Corona virus is eradicated. Until then, once people move around again then more people will be infected. So you will have to test and retest until there is a vaccine. Or would you keep the lockdown going until there is a vaccine and only vaccinated people are allowed to freely move around? Remember, a vaccine is not always guaranteed to keep people from getting the disease. A poor vaccine might even make any illness worse.

Just because they have the GDP does not mean that they will have the ability to pay the bill for the testing, nor the equipment and supplies needed be available, nor the trained people to take the samples, and do the testing.

[TulliusDetritus]

ORIGINAL: Lobster

ORIGINAL: TulliusDetritus



That's China's decision not yours. To answer your question, technically China already paid that sum: they stopped their economy, a very drastic measure that shows the mighty strenght and energy of the dragon.

Meanwhile in the west... trembling because the economy might collapse. The signal you're sending and everyone gets -even the last village idiot in Zimbabwe: sheer weakness. Enjoy.

What a load of politically motivated tripe. [8|]

You don't have to like how the various parts of the real world deal with covid-19. It's in fact irrelevant. But reality won't disappear [:D]

[Curtis Lemay]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Those are the total known cases. Many cases may never be reported because they were mild or no symptoms developed.

But that's the evidence we have. If there are such mild cases out there that have resolved, the CDC evidently doesn't know about them. That makes it a baseless assumption.

For the evidence we have about all resolved cases, 7.1% fatality is the sad result.

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Those are the total known cases. Many cases may never be reported because they were mild or no symptoms developed.

But that's the evidence we have. If there are such mild cases out there that have resolved, the CDC evidently doesn't know about them. That makes it a baseless assumption.

For the evidence we have about all resolved cases, 7.1% fatality is the sad result.

warspite1

Well there's not much point continuing down that track. If 7.1% gives you what you are looking for then fine. Personally I choose not to go down that route, and I'm sure in the fullness of time we'll know more.

[Curtis Lemay]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Have I missed something or isn't that just being alarmist? How can the death rate be compared just to one portion of those with the disease i.e. those that have recovered? Most people in the current cases category will be absolutely fine and we know this, so what's with the 7.1%?

It's just arithmetic. X number of cases have resolved. 7.1% were fatal. Other cases that haven't resolved yet can't be counted yet because we don't know the outcome of those cases.

[TulliusDetritus]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe
Just because they have the GDP does not mean that they will have the ability to pay the bill for the testing, nor the equipment and supplies needed be available, nor the trained people to take the samples, and do the testing.

I suppose any rational strategy is based on what can or can't be done. You're talking about a new outbreak (hopefully not) or wave (next winter they say?). I'm pretty sure every state is already thinking about that future scenario (if it can't be avoided and / or vaccines don't fix the problem). Needless to say, I don't know these plans.

[Canoerebel]

Curtis, your math is way off. Using your method, the USA currently has more than a 100% fatality rate. That, of course, is impossible. Your method is way, way, way off. At least three have brought this to your attention, but you're digging in your heals and insisting on using a seriously flawed method that is in fact impossible.

[Curtis Lemay]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Curtis, your math is way off. Using your method, the USA currently has more than a 100% fatality rate. That, of course, is impossible. Your method is way, way, way off. At least three have brought this to your attention, but you're digging in your heals and insisting on using a seriously flawed method that is in fact impossible.

Huh? Let's see your math on that.