OT: Corona virus

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: Anachro

Analysis of the Chinese cases, from research I've read, leads me to think heat/humidity of summer months very well might reduce outbreak in the northern hemisphere. Hopefully, this turns out to be the case and gives us time to develop a vaccine, etc.

The specialist who was interviewed (the link Erik provided) said at this time there is no reason to believe warmer temperatures will slow it down, although it was too early to tell. IIRC he said it's similar to the MERS virus, which transmits just fine at 110F.

[:(]

From what I read, it is more similar to the SARs virus. In fact, if the vaccine for that would have been made, that vaccine might provide some immunity to this latest Corona virus.

Do you have a background that's relevant to vaccines and virology?

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: geofflambert

Can you lose a Michelin star over that?

How does one collect Michelin stars? Is it like real life Mario world?

[durnedwolf]

ORIGINAL: Kull

ORIGINAL: durnedwolf

And all I'm saying is that I didn't find Olin's comment political whatsoever. We all have different views. I'm just suggesting we all be a little more forgiving and tolerant of each other's views. In the end, it's not for me or anyone else to decide; we have moderators.

That's right, we do have moderators. And Erik has spoken. No politics:

ORIGINAL: Erik Rutins

I'd just like to ask again that we please try to keep politics out of this. Let's focus on information to help us all get through this pandemic, not discussion on whether one or another healthcare systems are superior. We are where we are and the virus is gunning for us all. We will all be happy to have those discussion on the other side of this. Right now focus on what unites us please.

<Laughter> Kull - I didn't suggest anything different...

[durnedwolf]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: geofflambert

Can you lose a Michelin star over that?

How does one collect Michelin stars? Is it like real life Mario world?

I had to Google this - it's a rating system for restaurants and their quality.

[Kull]

Humor is good:

[Canoerebel]

Here's a chart of the daily number of new cases in South Korea.

When this thread began on 2/26/20, South Korea was a few days into its exponential increase phase. That lasted about two weeks, tapering off in early March. As of mid-March, SK is on the encouraging side of a bell-shaped curve.

Right now, Italy is on the discouraging side of the bell-shaped curve. It has already suffered far more mortality than SK. That may continue for some time to come or it may abruptly tail off, as the pandemic matures or the effect of emergency measures kick in. It would be great to see Italy taper into the encouraging side of that curve, both for the sake of its people and to give other countries a better feel for what's going on and what to expect in the future.

[Canoerebel]

The next few days are so important in Italy. Will the bell-shaped curve turn or continue up. Here's wishing for the best.

[alanschu]

It's interesting trying to assess public behaviour. This was a graph posted of NYC ER reports for flu like diseases. One concern I have is that it's more prevalent in parts of major cities than people realize.

That said, concerns of COVID-19 are also going to increase the likelihood of going to the ER when you have symptoms.

[Kull]

There's a lot of talk about "hospital bed count", but the important number is "Critical Care Beds". Attached is an interesting chart, showing CCBs per 100,000 inhabitants. With a population of about 60M, that means Italy has 7500 CCBs. The current worlodometers chart says there are 1672 serious/critical Covid-19 cases in Italy, so at a minimum that's consumed 22% of all national CCBs. And since those are sprinkled around the country and the majority of Italian cases are in Lombardy, the real bed consumption rate in the affected zones could be 2-4 times higher.

By contrast, Germany has vastly more CCBs (almost 25K) and few reported serious/critical patients. Which means CCB availability is not an issue (at least for now), and is probably at least one reason why the death rate is so much lower. It also suggest that Germany can weather a lot more critical cases before the system is "stretched" and the death rate increases. Something to watch going forward (the same applies to the US).

We keep hearing about "not exceeding healthcare system limits", and this gives a way to analyze and predict what might be coming (i.e. how close is it to Italy)

[Kursk1943]

To increase our "critical care bed capacity" in Germany from today on no more non-essential surgery or treatment in hospitals is allowed in order to free still more beds and personnel.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Kull

Humor is good:

This is hilarious! And from my neck of the woods!

I already passed it on to my sister who lives int he area.

I also passed it on to a friend who just let me know he's got it. Had night chills and some fever for about 3-4 days, then this.

"Feels like someone is standing on my chest and my throat is closing. No coughing though. Glad I quit smoking.
I think I'm on the other side of it. Like the end of a really hard rowing race"

He got a kick out of the post, and he's still got a wry sense of humour.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Kull

There's a lot of talk about "hospital bed count", but the important number is "Critical Care Beds". Attached is an interesting chart, showing CCBs per 100,000 inhabitants. With a population of about 60M, that means Italy has 7500 CCBs. The current worlodometers chart says there are 1672 serious/critical Covid-19 cases in Italy, so at a minimum that's consumed 22% of all national CCBs. And since those are sprinkled around the country and the majority of Italian cases are in Lombardy, the real bed consumption rate in the affected zones could be 2-4 times higher.

By contrast, Germany has vastly more CCBs (almost 25K) and few reported serious/critical patients. Which means CCB availability is not an issue (at least for now), and is probably at least one reason why the death rate is so much lower. It also suggest that Germany can weather a lot more critical cases before the system is "stretched" and the death rate increases. Something to watch going forward (the same applies to the US).

We keep hearing about "not exceeding healthcare system limits", and this gives a way to analyze and predict what might be coming (i.e. how close is it to Italy)

This is interesting, and I'm confused as I saw earlier posts suggesting a very different situation. Does this take into account how may of those beds are actually being used on a normal basis? The number of actual respirators and other necessary equipment? ( I haven't looked at links as I'm home doing some parenting, but will).

Anyway, I know here there are several proposals to essentially create more using both private care hospitals and even hotels. Best Western have offered their hotels to the NHS and if they can be equipped could provide a lot of secondary space, perhaps for non-critical cases.

In Italy I know part of the problem is that it has been concentrated in one area more.

[Encircled]

ORIGINAL: obvert


So odd to say they think in a week or two they'll impose a curfew for over-70s? Maybe this is to let relatives know they need to get them in a good state now before that happens?

I have absolutely no idea. I'm really worried though (both mine and wifes folks in that bracket) as the country has been through a lot (and a lot of trust has gone) in the past five years and I'm not sure that the scale of this has hit home to everyone yet.

But you have to trust the experts, and I just hope that the government are taking the right advice.

[Encircled]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Encircled

UK now considering voluntary isolation for up to four months for over-70s

Panic buying in full swing sadly, but plenty of stock available

Not sure the UK government are up to it at the moment, but they do appear to be swinging more behind the global effort rather than what looks like a bit of ad-hoc social engineering.

So odd to say they think in a week or two they'll impose a curfew for over-70s? Maybe this is to let relatives know they need to get them in a good state now before that happens?

Yes! They must stock up on condoms now!

I am comfortable knowing my parents did it three times (two sisters) but no more than that!

[obvert]

Today I'll begin providing a first hand account of life in my part of the UK. I went out yesterday and people were moving about as normal. Few wearing any protective gear. I was only walking in my neighbourhood though.

There are a high proportion of internationals living here, from everywhere. A lot of Eastern Europeans, South Asians, Southern Europeans and some Africans. It feels like many of the shops and cafes and bars catering to international communities are operating as normal, totally full.

Lots of people toting huge bags back from the major Supermarket here, Asda. Huge packs of TP too. We instead went to our favourite Turkish grocery and a minor stock of dried goods, canned goods and a few extra milks for the freezer. We only bought a 4 pack of TP. They'll be open and stocked for the foreseeable future. [:)]

We also took our daughtrer to the Olympic park for a bike and scooter expedition. A big 5k run on and lots of heavy breathing, open mouthed people we steered around. Rode by the river for a very nice hour. Parks are good.

[Kursk1943]

We have aleady reached the next phase in Bavaria. This morning our gouverneur announced that public life will be reduced to the minimum. All shops, zoos, gymns, cinemas...will be closed besides supermarkets,banks and pharmacies for at least two weeks.No restrictions for the personal freedom of movement "until further notice". [8|]

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: witpqs



The specialist who was interviewed (the link Erik provided) said at this time there is no reason to believe warmer temperatures will slow it down, although it was too early to tell. IIRC he said it's similar to the MERS virus, which transmits just fine at 110F.

[:(]

From what I read, it is more similar to the SARs virus. In fact, if the vaccine for that would have been made, that vaccine might provide some immunity to this latest Corona virus.

Do you have a background that's relevant to vaccines and virology?

Yes, I do. I am a somewhat literate barbarian who can understand and remember some things.

Edit: Why do you ask that question and are you trying to make an issue of something? [&:]

[RFalvo69]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

RFalvo, how're things there today? Good luck.

We had a scare, because my mother-in-law back in Lamezia developed a fever. Luckily our family doctor was available and he diagnosed a simple ear infection - treatable with medicinal drops (it is telling that an ear infection means that you are lucky...)

Regarding the lockdown, the situation for those in forced quarantine is (as I expected) deteriorating. The first days were "easy". Yes, apparently hard, but you felt that you were doing your part to help your country, sacrificing your liberties for the greater good (chest beating). Except that we are not even halfway in this emergency, and it would seem that patriotism is a finite commodity.

Now I look at Twitter, and the trendings are slowly transiting from (I'm translating) #Istayhome, #firstyourhealththenyourliberty, #IamDredd (regarding those "irresponsibles" they saw in the streets outside the window) to #Governmentofshame, #Contegohome and #Theyjailedus. I guess that they run out of shampoo.

I don't know... maybe eight years in the Navy helped me to accept a situation where you have to live for days and days in confined spaces while maintaining absolute hygiene conditions. However, I took as a given that the truly hard part is just starting. You sang your patriotic songs on the balconies and posted the pictures of your cats/dogs "guarding you during the quarantine". Fine. Now endure.

I looked at the Critical Care Beds stats. Regarding the situation in Italy, it is important to remember the deep differences still existing between the North and the South. From what I'm reading and seeing, the North has a number of CCB (per 100,000 inhabitants) comparable with the US - which means that the number of beds in the Center-South is just dire. Once again, "luckily" most cases are concentrated in the North. The last official numbers show 12,272 cases in Lombardy and only 68 in Calabria (on the other end of the peninsula). As you can see, the difference is stunning.

[Talking about statistics, be advised that the discussion in the general forum sadly devolved in a "War of Math" - something about which I'm proud to say that I haven't a clue about what they are talking.]

This afternoon I'll go out again for another round of shopping. If I discover something interesting I'll post about it.

This is a picture of the bus stop near my hotel. I took it two days ago. On a normal day there is a bus every 12 minutes, full of people. Now the bus passes once every hour - with only a few passengers. Also, note the absolute absence of people in the streets.

[obvert]

Here again today the private sector is taking the lead as some theatres begin to announce closures in spite of the financial hit they will take and without govt edicts to do so.

https://www.theguardian.com/stage/2020/ ... -radcliffe

[Kull]

ORIGINAL: RFalvo69

Regarding the lockdown, the situation for those in forced quarantine is (as I expected) deteriorating. The first days were "easy". Yes, apparently hard, but you felt that you were doing your part to help your country, sacrificing your liberties for the greater good (chest beating). Except that we are not even halfway in this emergency, and it would seem that patriotism is a finite commodity.

Now I look at Twitter, and the trendings are slowly transiting from (I'm translating) #Istayhome, #firstyourhealththenyourliberty, #IamDredd (regarding those "irresponsibles" they saw in the streets outside the window) to #Governmentofshame, #Contegohome and #Theyjailedus. I guess that they run out of shampoo.

I don't know... maybe eight years in the Navy helped me to accept a situation where you have to live for days and days in confined spaces while maintaining absolute hygiene conditions. However, I took as a given that the truly hard part is just starting. You sang your patriotic songs on the balconies and posted the pictures of your cats/dogs "guarding you during the quarantine". Fine. Now endure.

That's a real concern. Lockdowns will be difficult to maintain, especially if they are preemptive, before a country has spiraling cases and death counts. Fear is a good motivator, but the population's ability to "pay now" for future benefits that realistically can be described as "the bad thing that didn't happen"? Well, just look at the savings rate and that gives you some idea of how many (or better, how few) will make that mental calculation. Italy is in dire straights, yet after only a week, you are already seeing the first stages of push-back.

I suspect that going forward, this might also turn into a generational divide - "why should we, the young and healthy - sacrifice our lifestyles for the benefit of some old people"? Anecdotally, I've heard rumblings from young folks I know, and their only hardship is angst about future toilet paper availability.

I looked at the Critical Care Beds stats. Regarding the situation in Italy, it is important to remember the deep differences still existing between the North and the South. From what I'm reading and seeing, the North has a number of CCB (per 100,000 inhabitants) comparable with the US - which means that the number of beds in the Center-South is just dire. Once again, "luckily" most cases are concentrated in the North. The last official numbers show 12,272 cases in Lombardy and only 68 in Calabria (on the other end of the peninsula). As you can see, the difference is stunning.

Wow! Thanks for the clarification. That unfortunately implies that if this thing starts to take off in the South, there's almost no margin, and even a small uptick in caseload would overwhelm the system and the death rates would spike.

Btw, thanks for your interesting and informative writing. Your first post in the other thread was amazing reading. I shared it with some family members and for the first time I saw an awareness of what this could turn into in the US.

It must be difficult to be separated from your wife and parents and literally unable to do anything to help them. Impossible to go from northern Italy to southern? That hasn't been true since WW2, when there were actual battle lines in place!