OT: Corona virus

[Canoerebel]

On the flip side, I've gotten a lot more interesting insight into this from this thread than from any other source I've accessed.

I just wish Chickenboy was participating more often.

Hey, has anybody heard from him since he went to that renaissance fair in Texas? [X(]

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Surprising the Switzerland, Norway and Iran have such high infection rates per million population.
Too much heavy breathing from climbing mountains or just heavy testing?

Iran was notoriously... I'll just say careless.

Switzerland and Norway - what's the population density where people actually live? I.e., the average population density that a person there experiences? If it's high, I'd expect higher rates of infection than I would in, say, a rural US state.

[Canoerebel]

Judging from what we're seeing elsewhere, especially Asia and the western Pacific, and now perhaps [but only perhaps!] in Italy, I don't expect to see numbers in the millions. As for numbers in the tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands, that's serious but not comparatively so. We routinely deal with far more for seasonal flu and more irregular epidemics and pandemics.

I'd better caveat first by saying that every death is a tragedy to his/her community. We're dealing with numbers intensely personal to people.

Right now, early data indicates the bell-shaped-curve for each country might last three weeks, four weeks, maybe more. That was the case in China, in South Korea, in Japan. We may soon know if that's the case in Italy. And eventually here. We may lengthen that by dampening the curve, but that should help as that medical system would be less likely to be overwhelmed.

Given the data we're seeing, the situation in Western Europe and in the USA should peak and then begin to taper off in March. Not in July or September.

There may be re-occurrences in the autumn, but we'll be far more prepared then. And, as Chickenboy noted early in this thread, sometimes a SARS-related virus simply vanishes after awhile. There are alot of unknowns long-term.

Short term, though, there are many encouraging signs and data points to deal with.

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

A very high likelihood, I think. Almost as high as that Australian group that estimated 15,000,000 deaths under the best case of seven scenarios.

Even "just" 200K dead by mid-summer (as opposed to 1.1-1.2M) is a whole lot of extra dead people. If 1.1-1.2M is 50K deaths per day at peak, 200K would be ~10K deaths per day at peak?

That's more than double the typical daily mortality rate of 7K-something.

[Jaroen]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Yeah, and why the huge concentration and outbreak of cases in the Lombardy province of Italy?

Surprisingly there is a strong Lombardian link with China.
Many of the leather factories (fashion) in Lombardy were sold to Chinese investors, many from the Wuhan province. This leading to much travel coming and going by the Chinese managers. Clearly this was not readily recognized by the Italian governing bodies and early cases understood as incidents. And the rest . . . is not yet history . . .

Regarding all the graphs shown, I take them with a large grain of sand. I think we can about trust the number of deaths to the virus but that's it. Agreeing here with Canoerebel. The rest is basically guessing.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Surprising the Switzerland, Norway and Iran have such high infection rates per million population.
Too much heavy breathing from climbing mountains or just heavy testing?

Iran was notoriously... I'll just say careless.

Switzerland and Norway - what's the population density where people actually live? I.e., the average population density that a person there experiences? If it's high, I'd expect higher rates of infection than I would in, say, a rural US state.

Unless a lot of Chinese people go to Switzerland and Norway for skiing, I would not expect many visitors in the winter that would drive the infection rate per million so much higher than other countries. Switzerland probably can be explained by proximity to northern Italy, but Norway? How many visitors from high-risk areas does Norway get in the winter? And don't the mountains limit travel somewhat so geographic isolation is more prevalent?
So I wonder whether the virus is spreading faster there or if they are just very vigilant in their testing so they count more cases earlier than other countries on the chart.

[AW1Steve]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

On the flip side, I've gotten a lot more interesting insight into this from this thread than from any other source I've accessed.

I just wish Chickenboy was participating more often.

Hey, has anybody heard from him since he went to that renaissance fair in Texas? [X(]

I've heard a rumor that he's been named "King" of central Texas and is busy putting together a government. [:D]

[MakeeLearn]

Italy's Coronavirus death toll surges past 2,500 - Live updates

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/ ... 25373.html
Today 17Mar20 9minutes ago

"Italy reported 345 new coronavirus deaths in the country over the last 24 hours taking its total death toll to 2,503 - an increase of 16 percent.

The total number of cases in Italy rose to 31,506 from a previous 27,980, up 12.6 percent - the slowest rate of increase since the contagion came to light on February 21. Italy is the European country hardest hit by coronavirus."

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: AW1Steve

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

On the flip side, I've gotten a lot more interesting insight into this from this thread than from any other source I've accessed.

I just wish Chickenboy was participating more often.

Hey, has anybody heard from him since he went to that renaissance fair in Texas? [X(]

I've heard a rumor that he's been named "King" of central Texas and is busy putting together a government. [:D]

It has to start somewhere.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: ITAKLinus

Oh guys...

I came back from Liberia a couple of weeks ago. Decided intentionally not to stop by my friends and parents in Italy and I went directly to Prague, where my partner lives.

Now I'm stuck there with no apparent possibility to go back to Africa anytime soon. Remote working and everything closed.


In the meanwhile, since coronavirus is too mainstream, I had to go to the hospital where they do treat people for coronavirus here in Czech Republic because I was having a moderate dengue. Of course, since I'm also very lucky (...[8|]), the only tropical disease department in the country is the one treating coronavirus. They are doing very well, but I wasn't that happy to be stuck there for quite a while.

The only positive aspect so far is that me and my opponent we doubled the amount of turns per day [:D][:D][:D][:D][:D]

Good to hear from you. Out of the frying pan into the fire, huh?

Dengue is no fun. Bone-break fever they call it. Hope yours is abating.

Keep us abreast of how things go there.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Surprising the Switzerland, Norway and Iran have such high infection rates per million population.
Too much heavy breathing from climbing mountains or just heavy testing?

Iran was notoriously... I'll just say careless.

Switzerland and Norway - what's the population density where people actually live? I.e., the average population density that a person there experiences? If it's high, I'd expect higher rates of infection than I would in, say, a rural US state.

Unless a lot of Chinese people go to Switzerland and Norway for skiing, I would not expect many visitors in the winter that would drive the infection rate per million so much higher than other countries. Switzerland probably can be explained by proximity to northern Italy, but Norway? How many visitors from high-risk areas does Norway get in the winter? And don't the mountains limit travel somewhat so geographic isolation is more prevalent?
So I wonder whether the virus is spreading faster there or if they are just very vigilant in their testing so they count more cases earlier than other countries on the chart.

There were a lot of tourists/skiiers in Switzerland for sure, and France. A bunch of Brits stranded.

Norway was high early, and I can only assume it's the same.

Iran seems to be a different story. Some Chinese there passed it early and many indications are that the real numbers may be much worse than shown.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The good news, Alanschu, is that number of new cases has been basically level for four days now! Truly, that might be the leveling out of the bell-shaped-curve.

ORIGINAL: alanschu

I'm concerned about the 10-12% jump in new cases in a day, though.

I'm extremely skeptical that it is sustainable. I think it is far more likely that the perceived flattening is the result of one of two things: (1) testing is still not being done widely enough to accurately capture the actual spread; or (2) the relatively draconian (compared to normal times) measures that are already in place in the US's major population centers may actually be working, but would need to be maintained for over a year and possibly as long as 18 months for this rate of spread to be sustainable without the rate of spread exploding upwards again.

On a personal experience note here, I got a distressing call from my friend who has t. Still being denied a test although with all of the symptoms. He's managing at home, but most likely will not be part of the stats for the UK unless things start to go badly and he goes to hospital.

I would bet 90% of cases here are like his, and will never be counted.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

People are panicking because the stream of news is currently 100% negative.

As soon as some positive news comes in, the panic will settle down. Then it will gradually fade, as the situation stabilizes or improves in Italy, the rest of Europe and then the USA.

We're not going to be in lock down for months.

All recent studies suggest this will take more than a few months to get to the peak and past back to a sense of normalcy. It may not get normal at all if warmth doesn't slow it down until there is "herd immunity." Then we'll also have the economic and possibly the social unrest to deal with too.

I'll again be very happy if you're right, but right now the situation is too fluid to know, so such firm predictions just aren't possible.

[alanschu]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The good news, Alanschu, is that number of new cases has been basically level for four days now! Truly, that might be the leveling out of the bell-shaped-curve.

Just to clarify, but it seems like the rate of new cases is "level" in the sense that it's increasing in a linear fashion right? Looking at worldometers I still see a trend line going up which *is* better than an exponential increase, but based on sheer volume I am concerned about static growth of deaths remaining stable if only because so many more people have been infected.

I do agree with BBfanboy that we'll see how things look as the quarantine persists which should have mitigated a lot of transmission vectors.

[Canoerebel]

He'll likely be counted in some form or fashion. In Chickenboy's many citations regarding the SARS epidemic about 15 years ago, there was info from CDC that, after the pandemic ended, it went back in and adjusted figures to take into account unreported cases, etc. I think CDC, WHO and other organizations will take measures to quantify everything that happened, as best they can.

[MakeeLearn]

Flu Vaccine Increases Coronavirus Risk 36% Says Military Study
https://www.disabledveterans.org/2020/0 ... 9c26k5Mbjc


"A recent military study shows military personnel evaluated who received the flu vaccine were at 36 percent increased risk for coronavirus with varied benefit in preventing some strains of the flu."

[Canoerebel]

Nobody's making firm predictions, Erik.

But the trends visible suggest bell-shaped-curves with less than a month - usually a lot less - to reach the peak (and usually around a month for the main rise and fall). That was the case in some Asian countries. Will it hold true in Europe/North America/etc? We don't know yet, but as we keep saying, Italy should provide the first indication.

My instincts here are contrary to the vast majority of reporting. I'm aware of that. My reputation is important, so it feels strange to swim contrary to the flow and to very publicly give opinions that seem to be outliers. This past Saturday, the enormity really hit home. But taking fresh looks at all the underlying data, I remain pretty comfortable with the conclusions and estimates stated here - even going back to the early days of this thread.

The USA is a big place. Some parts are already experiencing full-blown exponential increases; others are just getting started. But I'm confident (not positive, but confident) that most or all locales in the continental US will be at or past peak within a month, and some probably by the end of this month. More so for Western Europe.

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

People are panicking because the stream of news is currently 100% negative.

As soon as some positive news comes in, the panic will settle down. Then it will gradually fade, as the situation stabilizes or improves in Italy, the rest of Europe and then the USA.

We're not going to be in lock down for months.

All recent studies suggest this will take more than a few months to get to the peak and past back to a sense of normalcy. It may not get normal at all if warmth doesn't slow it down until there is "herd immunity." Then we'll also have the economic and possibly the social unrest to deal with too.

I'll again be very happy if you're right, but right now the situation is too fluid to know, so such firm predictions just aren't possible.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Kull

I'll spare you the links since it's happening everywhere, but jury duty and trials are being suspended all across the country. Apparently the "right to a speedy trial" isn't such an important right after all. Which other rights aren't so important? It shouldn't matter whether you are liberal or conservative, dangerous precedents are being set.

I agree. I also looked up the law where I live about the governor able to declare a state of emergency:

Declared emergency.

"Declared emergency" means a national security or peacetime emergency declared by the governor under section . . .

Declaration of peacetime emergency.

(a) The governor may declare a peacetime emergency. A peacetime declaration of emergency may be declared only when an act of nature, a technological failure or malfunction, a terrorist incident, an industrial accident, a hazardous materials accident, or a civil disturbance endangers life and property and local government resources are inadequate to handle the situation. If the peacetime emergency occurs on Indian lands, the governor or state director of emergency management shall consult with tribal authorities before the governor makes such a declaration. Nothing in this section shall be construed to limit the governor's authority to act without such consultation when the situation calls for prompt and timely action. When the governor declares a peacetime emergency, the governor must immediately notify the majority and minority leaders of the senate and the speaker and majority and minority leaders of the house of representatives. A peacetime emergency must not be continued for more than five days unless extended by resolution of the Executive Council up to 30 days. An order, or proclamation declaring, continuing, or terminating an emergency must be given prompt and general publicity and filed with the secretary of state

Act of Nature is also know as Act of God.

Act of God

At common law, an overwhelming event caused exclusively by natural forces whose effects could not possibly be prevented (e.g., flood, earthquake, tornado). In modern jurisdictions, "act of God" is often broadened by statute to include all natural phenomena whose effects could not be prevented by the exercise of reasonable care and foresight.

https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/act_of_god

Epidemics, illness and disease, can be prevented.

[Zorch]

New coronavirus stable for hours on surfaces: study https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03- ... faces.html

text follows

The virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is stable for several hours to days in aerosols and on surfaces, according to a new study from National Institutes of Health, CDC, UCLA and Princeton University scientists The New England Journal of Medicine. The scientists found that severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was detectable in aerosols for up to three hours, up to four hours on copper, up to 24 hours on cardboard and up to two to three days on plastic and stainless steel. The results provide key information about the stability of SARS-CoV-2, which causes COVID-19 disease, and suggests that people may acquire the virus through the air and after touching contaminated objects. The study information was widely shared during the past two weeks after the researchers placed the contents on a preprint server to quickly share their data with colleagues.

The NIH scientists, from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases' Montana facility at Rocky Mountain Laboratories, compared how the environment affects SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV-1, which causes SARS. SARS-CoV-1, like its successor now circulating across the globe, emerged from China and infected more than 8,000 people in 2002 and 2003. SARS-CoV-1 was eradicated by intensive contact tracing and case isolation measures and no cases have been detected since 2004. SARS-CoV-1 is the human coronavirus most closely related to SARS-CoV-2. In the stability study the two viruses behaved similarly, which unfortunately fails to explain why COVID-19 has become a much larger outbreak.

The NIH study attempted to mimic virus being deposited from an infected person onto everyday surfaces in a household or hospital setting, such as through coughing or touching objects. The scientists then investigated how long the virus remained infectious on these surfaces.

The scientists highlighted additional observations from their study:

If the viability of the two coronaviruses is similar, why is SARS-CoV-2 resulting in more cases? Emerging evidence suggests that people infected with SARS-CoV-2 might be spreading virus without recognizing, or prior to recognizing, symptoms. This would make disease control measures that were effective against SARS-CoV-1 less effective against its successor.
In contrast to SARS-CoV-1, most secondary cases of virus transmission of SARS-CoV-2 appear to be occurring in community settings rather than healthcare settings. However, healthcare settings are also vulnerable to the introduction and spread of SARS-CoV-2, and the stability of SARS-CoV-2 in aerosols and on surfaces likely contributes to transmission of the virus in healthcare settings.

The findings affirm the guidance from public health professionals to use precautions similar to those for influenza and other respiratory viruses to prevent the spread of SARS-CoV-2:

Avoid close contact with people who are sick.
Avoid touching your eyes, nose, and mouth.
Stay home when you are sick.
Cover your cough or sneeze with a tissue, then throw the tissue in the trash.
Clean and disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces using a regular household cleaning spray or wipe.

[MakeeLearn]

New York: Last Updated: March 17, 2020 1:30 PM
What You Need to Know
https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/home

The Governor and Legislature have an agreement on a bill guaranteeing job protection and pay for New Yorkers who have been quarantined as a result of novel coronavirus.

The bill also includes the permanent comprehensive paid sick leave policy

Governor Cuomo signed an executive order directing all schools in New York to close by Wednesday, March 18 for two weeks ending April 1.

Casinos, gyms, theaters are closed until further notice.

Bars and restaurants are closed, but takeout can be ordered during the period of closure.

Strongly advise only services and businesses that are essential stay open after 8:00PM
Groceries
Gas stations
Pharmacies
Medical facilities

All local governments must reduce their workforce by at least 50%. Non-essential state workers are working from home.

New York State is waiving all park fees in state, local and county parks.

Testing is free for all eligible New Yorkers as ordered by a health care provider.

Your local health department is your community contact for COVID-19 concerns.

[Canoerebel]

These charts show how things played out in China. There are some weird bumps, due to China changing its reporting criteria midstream.