OT: Corona virus

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

For those unable to read each post in this tome, please send a case of Jack Daniels to Makee Learn c/o General Delivery, Goosebump, Tennessee. Sedation.

... and a case of Bulleit Rye over here. Also sedation.

[MakeeLearn]

U.S. Virus Plan Anticipates 18-Month Pandemic and Widespread Shortages

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/us-vi ... li=BBnb7Kz


"WASHINGTON — A federal government plan to combat the coronavirus warned policymakers last week that a pandemic “will last 18 months or longer” and could include “multiple waves,” resulting in widespread shortages that would strain consumers and the nation’s health care system.

The 100-page plan, dated Friday, the same day President Trump declared a national emergency, laid out a grim prognosis for the spread of the virus and outlined a response that would activate agencies across the government and potentially employ special presidential powers to mobilize the private sector."

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ORIGINAL: USSAmerica

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

China getting back to business as worst of coronavirus outbreak in country appears to be over
11 Mar, 2020
https://www.rt.com/business/482814-chin ... ronavirus/


"The Coronavirus outbreak could have already “passed its worst,” the regional chief investment officer of UBS Global Wealth Management said as the number of new infections is declining in the country, but surges everywhere beyond it. Thus the Chinese economy may become “the first in the world” to get back to normal, the bank's official believes."

This puzzles me. By all accounts, the "heavy handed" lockdown measures used in China have had a significant effect on "taming" the virus spread in that country. If/when the majority of people start returning to work that would have to mean a great easing of the lockdown measures in place. The virus is not gone from China by any means. Only a tiny percentage of their population has been reported as having it.

My question for the group: Why does anyone expect the virus spread to not accelerate again when those lockdown measures are relaxed? I have to be missing some significant information because everything I've seen makes me expect the spread to pick back up again.

This is kind of what I've been pointing to all along. there is a lot of research, including the very good Washington Post article I linked the other day, about 5-6 pages back, with some examples of different mitigation methods. They show that complete quarantine is often only effective to keep hospitals from getting overwhelmed until measures are lifted. Then it's bound to spike again.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics ... Fstory-ans

Vaccine is the only actual solution other than eventual herd immunity (taking 60-70% of the population to get immunity by having the disease, of course assuming it can't come back again a second time)

[Kull]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

The problem with the reported death rate is what other problems do they have. There was a 21 year old Spaniard who died. He had Corona Virus 19 and leukemia. Which one killed him? If he did not have the leukemia, would he have died from the Corona Virus infection? If he did not have the Corona Virus infection, would he have died from the leukemia? That is the problem with reporting the deaths when there is another health issue.

Almost certainly it's because he was on chemo, and that wipes out your immune system. It would be interesting to know what the death rate is for people on chemo - I would expect it's pretty high.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: USSAmerica
....

Please help me understand what I’m missing.

It's not clear that China returning to business as usual will result in renewed outbreak or, if it does, whether that will be unmanageable. There are so many variables - including temperature (climate) as China transitions into summer, etc.

We've cited South Korea as another example of a country preparing to work towards normalcy. Presumably, they'll be monitoring carefully and implementing precautions against another outbreak.

Personally, it seems very intuitive to figure out how to stop this thing, knowing we'll be better prepared next time, whether that happens as a re-ignition in a few months or a renewed outbreak when cold weather returns late in the year.

[Canoerebel]

Italy's numbers are updated on the Worldometers website - deaths spike to 475, up considerably over the past three days (which were steady at around 350).

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London Update for the day.

We went out to the park this morning for a short play with my daughter. My wife didn't stop since she's pregnant, but rode around to get exercise while I pushed the swing. There were on average 3-4 other families there at any one point of our 45 minute stay. Definitely down, but likely to pick up when schools close (just announced) on Friday. We saw two families we know well, and the kids interacted while the parents kept 2 meters from each other, a kind of distance dance, while chatting. As usual, now part of my persistent routine, I wiped down our hands and we rode back on the bike, then washed hands and faces again at home.

The afternoon has been quiet with my wife and I splitting on screen meeting times for work. Some good time in the garden planting spring veggies. Our street is usually a constant steam of people returning from work from 4:30pm until about 8pm most nights, as we're near the tube and a good short cut to one area of the neighbourhood. Today traffic is noticeably lighter. I've noticed fewer cars parked on the street for a few days now too.

Our friend with the virus has gotten through the fever and seems to be doing better, with only comparatively slight breathing difficulties and a lot of fatigue now. His wife shows no symptoms now. Fingers crossed his recovery continues daily.

Word is local stores are planning to remain open and most community members seem to be behaving.

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ORIGINAL: Kull

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

The problem with the reported death rate is what other problems do they have. There was a 21 year old Spaniard who died. He had Corona Virus 19 and leukemia. Which one killed him? If he did not have the leukemia, would he have died from the Corona Virus infection? If he did not have the Corona Virus infection, would he have died from the leukemia? That is the problem with reporting the deaths when there is another health issue.

Almost certainly it's because he was on chemo, and that wipes out your immune system. It would be interesting to know what the death rate is for people on chemo - I would expect it's pretty high.

IIRC it was about 6-8% in the Wuhan report. It's in there if you want to dig out those numbers though.

[Canoerebel]

Erik, it seems like Georgia is ahead of England as far as closing schools. In my county the schools closed last week, as did many in the state. By now, all are probably closed. Many restaurants, stores and places of business have closed or reduced hours. Lots of other things, some of which were noted in previous posts. Also as noted above, most of the USA (not Washington and California) had the benefit of watching developments in Europe real time and thus taking action relatively quickly, before things really blew up.

Caveat: I'd better clarify that I don't know if this means anything whatsoever at this point.

[Canoerebel]

Utterly unimportant to what's going on but possibly interesting:

How might a person's personality type - choleric, sanguine, phlegmatic, melancholy - impact their response?

[Banzan]

In Germany, the small town of Mitterteich was the first to enact a full lockdown/curfew(?) with only exceptions for emergeny shopping and medical aid/help and going/leaving work. Most of us expect this to happen to many citys/towns, too. Nearly the entire car industry has already stopped production or will stop between Friday and Sunday. Airbus is still producing, but may stop soon due part shortages (this is a major problem for large parts of the industry).

[Kursk1943]

ORIGINAL: Kull

ORIGINAL: Kursk1943

...and the tone becomes rougher...[8|]

Kursk1943 - The Death rate in Germany is phenomenally low. Only 27 out of 11,302 cases, or 0.2%. That is orders of magnitude lower than Italy. Any insights you can share with us on that? My earlier chart showed that Germany has the highest number of Critical Care Beds per person in Europe (or at least of those countries listed), so that is probably part of it, but still - that percentage is amazing!

The experts here are asking themselves the same questions and have some possible explanations, but they really are sure not about it:
1. the percentage of older people is higher in Italy than in Germany
2. the speed of infection was a lot higher, so the hospitals in Italy reached their limits very fast, not the case in Germany
3. the virus exists longer in Italy than in Germany
4. strong possibility that many cases in Italy were not detected in the beginning, Germany has the advantage of a "late starter" and profits from Italy's experience.
5. differences in the quality of treatment
6. differences in reporting and counting

Once again, nobody knows for sure, mostly speculations, so not really helpful. Our experts expect that our death rate will become aligned to the Italian one and will rise significantly.
Since Monday e have the same limitations in Germany as in Italy besides a curfew. I expect a curfew not later than end of this week in Germany.

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Utterly unimportant to what's going on but possibly interesting:

How might a person's personality type - choleric, sanguine, phlegmatic, melancholy - impact their response?

It's very important. Do not be a island. Do not get STUCK in a bad thought/emotion. It's OK to feel down but dont set up camp there.



Ask for a helping hand and give a helping hand.

[durnedwolf]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Utterly unimportant to what's going on but possibly interesting:

How might a person's personality type - choleric, sanguine, phlegmatic, melancholy - impact their response?

It's not gunna make a filth-and-foul-foul-filth bit of difference!!! [:@][:@][:@]


(Totally in jest)

[Canoerebel]

[&o]

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

MakeeLearn, that's one weird headline (two posts above). In the first place, nobody thinks "only" the elderly can die. In the second, the table in the story shows that the elderly are indeed disproportionately affected, pretty much discrediting whatever point the writer was trying to make.

[:D]Exactly what I was gleaning from the article as I read it. There is probably a "Life Style" connection to most of the younger deaths.

Depends on your viewpoint. My 44 year old son has an autoimmune disorder that overreacts to allergens, making him at severe risk of dying from contact with some things. I strongly suspect he would also be at risk from an over-reaction of his immune system to the virus. My concern with the virus is more about his survival than mine, even though I am in the old fart group.

[durnedwolf]

Report from Bishop California:

So far no reported cases in Inyo County.

Our Governor is shutting down Restaurants, theatres, etc. similar to what most other states are doing.

At the college I work at, we are moving all classes on-line for student/faculty safety. We are having all employees 60+ years of age or with compromised health work from home or, in the case of employees like Grounds workers or custodial, they are just paid to stay home.

Stores still have chow and TP.

Folks seem to be doing a good job of keeping their 6ft distance and doing the elbow-tap thing in place of handshakes.

At my lodge meeting last night we kept our distance and during the business meeting, and we discussed future meetings. The agreement was to punt for a few weeks and see how things look in April.

So NW of town is a place called the Buttermilks - a rock-climbing haven for those that partake of such things. The big "local" complaint is that there are about 100 cars out there as many of the "younger crowd" from LA and other out-of-town locations are using their "Stay home" demands from work to hang out together and party. I think there are still large portions of the younger adults that aren't really worried about COVID-19. In truth, recalling my younger days and the fact that I often kept my head up my bumm whole boozing it and acting like a rebel without a clue, I kind of understand the mindset. I apparently have grown a tad more cautious and considerate of others as I've aged.

Addendum - we have Drive-In Testing @ Bishop.

https://www.bloggingbishop.com/blog/2020/3/17/kibskboc-nih-drive-in-testing

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Utterly unimportant to what's going on but possibly interesting:

How might a person's personality type - choleric, sanguine, phlegmatic, melancholy - impact their response?

It's very important. Do not be a island. Do not get STUCK in a bad thought/emotion. It's OK to feel down but dont set up camp there.



Ask for a helping hand and give a helping hand.

The soldier that he slapped in Sicily had a temperature of 104 F and was suffering from malaria. Unknown to Patton at the time, probably the soldier and the medical staff as well.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Kull

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

The problem with the reported death rate is what other problems do they have. There was a 21 year old Spaniard who died. He had Corona Virus 19 and leukemia. Which one killed him? If he did not have the leukemia, would he have died from the Corona Virus infection? If he did not have the Corona Virus infection, would he have died from the leukemia? That is the problem with reporting the deaths when there is another health issue.

Almost certainly it's because he was on chemo, and that wipes out your immune system. It would be interesting to know what the death rate is for people on chemo - I would expect it's pretty high.

That is what I mean about the death rate and how it is counted. If it was broken down, people might be able to understand the risks better and the medical staff might be able to treat it better. When it is father along, maybe someone will check the numbers on this.

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Utterly unimportant to what's going on but possibly interesting:

How might a person's personality type - choleric, sanguine, phlegmatic, melancholy - impact their response?

It's very important. Do not be a island. Do not get STUCK in a bad thought/emotion. It's OK to feel down but dont set up camp there.



Ask for a helping hand and give a helping hand.

The soldier that he slapped in Sicily had a temperature of 104 F and was suffering from malaria. Unknown to Patton at the time, probably the soldier and the medical staff as well.

Seems to have a lot to do with his attitude. He did not have a "Do or Die" mind set. The is no time out for I dont feel good.

"In a 1970 interview withthe South Bend Tribune, Kuhl remembered that when Patton entered the hospital tent, "all the soldiers jumped to attention except me. I was suffering from battle fatigue and just didn't know what to do."

After asking each soldier what his injury was, Patton questioned Kuhl about why he had not stood and saluted. Kuhl told The Tribune, "I told him my nerves were shot and, of course, I didn't feel like getting up to salute him.""

This took place in a tent of torn bodies.