OT: Corona virus

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BBfanboy
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by BBfanboy »

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Please, most of the information here was definitive and dry with no personal touch. I also like when people let us know what it is like living in that situation because it makes it less of a dry statistic which can be manipulated.

The local store here has NO fresh eggs and the meat case, frozen vegetables, and other shelf spaces are sparse. We are quite a ways from the closest known case that I saw reported.

I did not go to the medicine shop across the street. You know the type, the one that advertises "beer, vino, spirits."
OK, some local colour then. First some context: Winnipeg had NO detected COVID-19 cases until last weekend when one person with severe symptoms reported to hospital. There are now eight detected cases, all of them travelers or close contacts of travelers. The province has shut down all schools and venues holding 50 or more persons. The Prime Minister has begun closing borders. Widespread testing is not available but has been gearing up for several weeks and should be OK soon.

So I went to Costco yesterday to get some groceries. Had to go out anyway to drop off a birthday present to one of the grandchildren who adopted me.
The store was far less busy than usual - say 50% of a normal Tuesday afternoon. Parking lot was usable without the frustration of too many cars and too few spaces. On entry a lady wiped down the handlebar of my cart with a cloth, this time covering much more of the surface than last time but still not doing a full-wrap-around. My hands, which had already touched the cart handle, returned to that handle with no offer of a wipe - undoing any good that the handle wipe might have done.
There was toilet paper, not a big stack but half a pallet or so. I am told that the store restricted people to one bundle a person last week. I asked about bleach and the employee said it was sold out. No need to ask about Clorox wipes. There was plenty of food of all kinds, including fresh produce. I saw one lady rapidly going up and down aisles scanning the shelves for something and obviously not finding. I suspect she wanted disinfectant of some kind. That was the only sign of stress that I saw.
On checkout they asked me how I was (normally not done) and if I found everything I was looking for. I mentioned how small the cashier lines were and she mentioned that last week the place was jammed with frantic shoppers buying stuff for their expected quarantine. So a new Beatitude: The Nervous Nellies shall inherit the store stock!
Other than that, my biggest disappointments are that I will not be able to see my niece (a professional dancer) perform in a production at a local theatre nor take my grandsons to the movies during the shutdowns here.
Questions?
No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by RangerJoe »

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy
ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Please, most of the information here was definitive and dry with no personal touch. I also like when people let us know what it is like living in that situation because it makes it less of a dry statistic which can be manipulated.

The local store here has NO fresh eggs and the meat case, frozen vegetables, and other shelf spaces are sparse. We are quite a ways from the closest known case that I saw reported.

I did not go to the medicine shop across the street. You know the type, the one that advertises "beer, vino, spirits."
OK, some local colour then. First some context: Winnipeg had NO detected COVID-19 cases until last weekend when one person with severe symptoms reported to hospital. There are now eight detected cases, all of them travelers or close contacts of travelers. The province has shut down all schools and venues holding 50 or more persons. The Prime Minister has begun closing borders. Widespread testing is not available but has been gearing up for several weeks and should be OK soon.

So I went to Costco yesterday to get some groceries. Had to go out anyway to drop off a birthday present to one of the grandchildren who adopted me.
The store was far less busy than usual - say 50% of a normal Tuesday afternoon. Parking lot was usable without the frustration of too many cars and too few spaces. On entry a lady wiped down the handlebar of my cart with a cloth, this time covering much more of the surface than last time but still not doing a full-wrap-around. My hands, which had already touched the cart handle, returned to that handle with no offer of a wipe - undoing any good that the handle wipe might have done.
There was toilet paper, not a big stack but half a pallet or so. I am told that the store restricted people to one bundle a person last week. I asked about bleach and the employee said it was sold out. No need to ask about Clorox wipes. There was plenty of food of all kinds, including fresh produce. I saw one lady rapidly going up and down aisles scanning the shelves for something and obviously not finding. I suspect she wanted disinfectant of some kind. That was the only sign of stress that I saw.
On checkout they asked me how I was (normally not done) and if I found everything I was looking for. I mentioned how small the cashier lines were and she mentioned that last week the place was jammed with frantic shoppers buying stuff for their expected quarantine. So a new Beatitude: The Nervous Nellies shall inherit the store stock!
Other than that, my biggest disappointments are that I will not be able to see my niece (a professional dancer) perform in a production at a local theatre nor take my grandsons to the movies during the shutdowns here.
Questions?

Just one about the niece, is the production canceled or just postponed? Maybe if they taped a rehearsal that could be seen and donations accepted.

Also be grateful for the Red River diversion around Winnipeg for the flooding. South of you, Grand Forks area and Fargo/Moorehead didn't have those the last that I hear. Can you imagine having sandbag crews with the Corona virus going around?

The reason why the Nellies are Nervous is they have no armour and the allied planes have good machine guns!
Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing! :o

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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by BBfanboy »

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy
ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Please, most of the information here was definitive and dry with no personal touch. I also like when people let us know what it is like living in that situation because it makes it less of a dry statistic which can be manipulated.

The local store here has NO fresh eggs and the meat case, frozen vegetables, and other shelf spaces are sparse. We are quite a ways from the closest known case that I saw reported.

I did not go to the medicine shop across the street. You know the type, the one that advertises "beer, vino, spirits."
OK, some local colour then. First some context: Winnipeg had NO detected COVID-19 cases until last weekend when one person with severe symptoms reported to hospital. There are now eight detected cases, all of them travelers or close contacts of travelers. The province has shut down all schools and venues holding 50 or more persons. The Prime Minister has begun closing borders. Widespread testing is not available but has been gearing up for several weeks and should be OK soon.

So I went to Costco yesterday to get some groceries. Had to go out anyway to drop off a birthday present to one of the grandchildren who adopted me.
The store was far less busy than usual - say 50% of a normal Tuesday afternoon. Parking lot was usable without the frustration of too many cars and too few spaces. On entry a lady wiped down the handlebar of my cart with a cloth, this time covering much more of the surface than last time but still not doing a full-wrap-around. My hands, which had already touched the cart handle, returned to that handle with no offer of a wipe - undoing any good that the handle wipe might have done.
There was toilet paper, not a big stack but half a pallet or so. I am told that the store restricted people to one bundle a person last week. I asked about bleach and the employee said it was sold out. No need to ask about Clorox wipes. There was plenty of food of all kinds, including fresh produce. I saw one lady rapidly going up and down aisles scanning the shelves for something and obviously not finding. I suspect she wanted disinfectant of some kind. That was the only sign of stress that I saw.
On checkout they asked me how I was (normally not done) and if I found everything I was looking for. I mentioned how small the cashier lines were and she mentioned that last week the place was jammed with frantic shoppers buying stuff for their expected quarantine. So a new Beatitude: The Nervous Nellies shall inherit the store stock!
Other than that, my biggest disappointments are that I will not be able to see my niece (a professional dancer) perform in a production at a local theatre nor take my grandsons to the movies during the shutdowns here.
Questions?

Just one about the niece, is the production canceled or just postponed? Maybe if they taped a rehearsal that could be seen and donations accepted.

Also be grateful for the Red River diversion around Winnipeg for the flooding. South of you, Grand Forks area and Fargo/Moorehead didn't have those the last that I hear. Can you imagine having sandbag crews with the Corona virus going around?

The reason why the Nellies are Nervous is they have no armour and the allied planes have good machine guns!
Some venues were trying things like only allowing half their seats to be occupied to improve social distancing. My understanding of the subsequent government bans is that they mean the venues must be shuttered, as much to protect the performers and theatre staff as the audience. Entertainment is not regarded as an essential industry (guess they have never been introduced to WITP-AE)! The production ran about a third of its planned run and I suppose it might resume when life returns to the theater. I am sure there will be video of the production somewhere - it was very well reviewed after its first performances. The stage performance is based on the book "By Grand Central Station" by Canadian poet Elizabeth Smart.
No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth
Sammy5IsAlive
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Sammy5IsAlive »

Interesting brief paper from demographic sociologists at the University of Oxford.

Probably most interesting in terms of the suggestion that one of the reasons Italy is suffering so badly may be due to specific demographic and cultural factors.

The numbers of predicted deaths in their graphs are pretty frightening although I'd imagine that if you asked an epidemiologist about how they have worked them out (literally just assuming a 40% proportion of people infected over time and then applying the mortality statistics from Italy) the method is not particularly robust.

https://osf.io/fd4rh/?view_only=c2f00df ... c2ea38e295
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by BBfanboy »

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

Interesting brief paper from demographic sociologists at the University of Oxford.

Probably most interesting in terms of the suggestion that one of the reasons Italy is suffering so badly may be due to specific demographic and cultural factors.

The numbers of predicted deaths in their graphs are pretty frightening although I'd imagine that if you asked an epidemiologist about how they have worked them out (literally just assuming a 40% proportion of people infected over time and then applying the mortality statistics from Italy) the method is not particularly robust.

https://osf.io/fd4rh/?view_only=c2f00df ... c2ea38e295
Interesting paper. I knew that European countries have been concerned about their low birth rates but did not realize that Italy has one of the oldest populations in the world. Given that and the extended family model in their culture, that explains a good part of why it hit so hard. The other is that the government dithered on shutdowns because (AFAIK) no other European country had taken such drastic measures. The just did not know how vulnerable they were and how important it was to clamp down early. As Canoerebel has mentioned many times, our side of the ocean gained valuable insight by watching what was happening there. May their nightmare soon be over ...[:(]
No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Lowpe »

In Philadelphia Suburbs of PA is the hotspot in PA with 47 infected in the neighboring (2 miles from my home) county and 14 in my county. We were the first counties to be ordered by the Governor to shut down.... I can only imagine the economic suffering of businesses in the area especially small business.

In Philadelphia, the new Chief of Police, whose last name is Outlaw[;)], just ordered the Police not to arrest anyone for a number of crimes: narcotics, theft from persons, retail theft, burglary, theft from vehicles, stolen cars, prostitution, and bench warrants. As I understand they will fill out the proper paperwork, but let the criminal go.

My daughter in law is a Heart Surgeon from Vanderbilt, and just returned from Spain 7 days ago. She is optimistic for the outcome in the US with the global level of mild case percentage increasing daily with the mortality rate decreasing as treatments become understood. I gather there were initial medical treatments that worsened the condition spiking the mortality rate.

Stay safe, and practice your flu protocol...



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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Lowpe »

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: Kull

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

The problem with the reported death rate is what other problems do they have. There was a 21 year old Spaniard who died. He had Corona Virus 19 and leukemia. Which one killed him? If he did not have the leukemia, would he have died from the Corona Virus infection? If he did not have the Corona Virus infection, would he have died from the leukemia? That is the problem with reporting the deaths when there is another health issue.

Almost certainly it's because he was on chemo, and that wipes out your immune system. It would be interesting to know what the death rate is for people on chemo - I would expect it's pretty high.

That is what I mean about the death rate and how it is counted. If it was broken down, people might be able to understand the risks better and the medical staff might be able to treat it better. When it is father along, maybe someone will check the numbers on this.

This is called co-morbidity. As I understand of the first 2500 deaths in Italy, the average co-morbidity rate was 2.3, with close to 75% of victims being male.
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by BBfanboy »

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

In Philadelphia Suburbs of PA is the hotspot in PA with 47 infected in the neighboring (2 miles from my home) county and 14 in my county. We were the first counties to be ordered by the Governor to shut down.... I can only imagine the economic suffering of businesses in the area especially small business.

In Philadelphia, the new Chief of Police, whose last name is Outlaw[;)], just ordered the Police not to arrest anyone for a number of crimes: narcotics, theft from persons, retail theft, burglary, theft from vehicles, stolen cars, prostitution, and bench warrants. As I understand they will fill out the proper paperwork, but let the criminal go.

My daughter in law is a Heart Surgeon from Vanderbilt, and just returned from Spain 7 days ago. She is optimistic for the outcome in the US with the global level of mild case percentage increasing daily with the mortality rate decreasing as treatments become understood. I gather there were initial medical treatments that worsened the condition spiking the mortality rate.

Stay safe, and practice your flu protocol...
I suspect there will not be many clients for those prostitutes, and vice versa! [:-]
No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth
alanschu
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by alanschu »

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Italy's numbers are updated on the Worldometers website - deaths spike to 475, up considerably over the past three days (which were steady at around 350).

Worldometers is also reporting a big uptick in new cases today as well, eclipsing the 4k mark. At best it means that the slope is still increasing and hopefully declining.

I think at worst it means that the day to day updates have some noise and we may still be at a steady rate of increase for new incidents.
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Canoerebel »

Thanks, Alanschu. Here's hoping for good news tomorrow!
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Canoerebel »

Regarding these "catch and release" programs, I assume there will be some latitude to hold those who the authorities have reason to believe pose additional threats to the community. I hope so!
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by obvert »

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

Interesting brief paper from demographic sociologists at the University of Oxford.

Probably most interesting in terms of the suggestion that one of the reasons Italy is suffering so badly may be due to specific demographic and cultural factors.

The numbers of predicted deaths in their graphs are pretty frightening although I'd imagine that if you asked an epidemiologist about how they have worked them out (literally just assuming a 40% proportion of people infected over time and then applying the mortality statistics from Italy) the method is not particularly robust.

https://osf.io/fd4rh/?view_only=c2f00df ... c2ea38e295

This is very interesting. A key piece taken out to compare different countries. Including the UK which has a disproportionate level of cases in London, which is quite low in percentage of vulnerable age groups.

[font="Trebuchet MS"] Population age structure may explain the remarkable variation in fatalities across countries and why countries such as Italy are especially vulnerable. The deluge of critical and fatal COVID-19 cases in Italy was unexpected given the health and wealth of the affected region. Italy is one of the oldest populations in the world with 23.3% its population over age 65, compared to 12% in China .Italy is also a country characterized by extensive intergenerational contacts which are supported by a high degree of residential proximity between adult children and their parents ...

These intergenerational interactions, co-residence, and commuting patterns may have accelerated the outbreak in Italy through social networks that increased the proximity of elderly to initial cases.

The Korean outbreak, while large, was concentrated amongst the young recruits of the Schincheonji religious group, with only 3.3% of cases falling into the very vulnerable >80 group.

Singapore is notable with zero deaths thus far, but have had only one confirmed case over 80 and only 10/200 cases above age 70.

COVID-19 transmission chains that begin in younger populations may have a low number of severe cases and thus go longer undetected, with countries thereby slow to raise the alarm. The low case fatality rate in England thus far (0.01%) may reflect the relatively young age structure of populations impacted to date, including Greater London, which has a small fraction of residents over age 65 compared to more rural areas.

COVID-19 was only detected in King County, Washington once it reached the Life Care Centre in Kirkland, where 19 out of 22 deaths occurred, despite estimates based on virus genetic sequences suggesting it circulated for several weeks prior. Once community transmission is established, countries that have a high level of intergenerational contacts and co-residence may see faster transmission to high-fatality age groups as seen in Italy. [/font]

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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Canoerebel »

I just read a New York Times story about five prominent people who are virus "skeptics" in some form or fashion. Some of the claims/thoughts are similar to what I've brought up in here, others aren't. It felt kind of weird reading the story.

I don't listen to radio talk shows and the information I'm putting forward is self-generated, for better and worse. These are my thoughts, none of them regurgitated from other sources. If there is any merit to them it's because I'm not plugged into the media or social media, so I'm not stirred up beyond all recognition.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by RangerJoe »

the
ORIGINAL: alanschu

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Italy's numbers are updated on the Worldometers website - deaths spike to 475, up considerably over the past three days (which were steady at around 350).

Worldometers is also reporting a big uptick in new cases today as well, eclipsing the 4k mark. At best it means that the slope is still increasing and hopefully declining.

I think at worst it means that the day to day updates have some noise and we may still be at a steady rate of increase for new incidents.

It probably is due to more testing being done, at least I hope so.
Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Zorch »

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

In Philadelphia, the new Chief of Police, whose last name is Outlaw[;)], just ordered the Police not to arrest anyone for a number of crimes: narcotics, theft from persons, retail theft, burglary, theft from vehicles, stolen cars, prostitution, and bench warrants. As I understand they will fill out the proper paperwork, but let the criminal go.
Not exactly. Please see https://6abc.com/commissioner-philly-po ... e/6023921/
Excerpt below.

"Persons who commit certain nonviolent offenses will be arrested at the scene. Once their identity has been confirmed, they will be released and processed via arrest warrant," Outlaw said.

According to Outlaw, this is similar to the 'summons process' that is utilized in many other counties throughout the Commonwealth.

She explained if the officer and supervisor believe the individual poses a threat to public safety, the suspect can be taken into custody for immediate processing.

"Officers will use discretion on how a person is processed," she said.

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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by obvert »

With schools closing here and tests going up to 25k a day I wonder what numbers will look like in a week? I would say they're going to skyrocket just due to extra testing. But if a lot of cases are mild and in the young, maybe they'll never reach a stage where they would be asked to be tested.

Here is perhaps one of the most important developments yet to help battle this virus. A multinational team based in NY have developed a test to find out who has had Covid, and thus who may now be immune. This could have a huge impact to get health workers some protection, find out more real numbers for the disease and give some positive news once larger numbers show that mortality rates are actually, and definitively, lower than thought.

A short article:
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/6153 ... really-is/

The study "pre-print" brief:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20037713v1
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by RangerJoe »

ORIGINAL: obvert

With schools closing here and tests going up to 25k a day I wonder what numbers will look like in a week? I would say they're going to skyrocket just due to extra testing. But if a lot of cases are mild and in the young, maybe they'll never reach a stage where they would be asked to be tested.

Here is perhaps one of the most important developments yet to help battle this virus. A multinational team based in NY have developed a test to find out who has had Covid, and thus who may now be immune. This could have a huge impact to get health workers some protection, find out more real numbers for the disease and give some positive news once larger numbers show that mortality rates are actually, and definitively, lower than thought.

A short article:
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/6153 ... really-is/

The study "pre-print" brief:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20037713v1

That is very good news since the plasma treatment needs to find these people who have had the virus, hopefully they can and will donate plasma.
Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by MakeeLearn »

NYSE to temporarily close floor, move to electronic trading after positive Coronavirus tests

Mar 18 2020

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/18/nyse-to ... virus.html

" The New York Stock Exchange said starting March 23, it will temporarily close its historic trading floor and move fully to electronic trading.

The move came after two people tested positive for Coronavirus infection at screenings it had set up this week.

The entrants were stopped at the medical screenings at the Big Board.

This is the first time the physical trading floor of the Big Board has ever shut independently while electronic trading continues."






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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by durnedwolf »

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: obvert

With schools closing here and tests going up to 25k a day I wonder what numbers will look like in a week? I would say they're going to skyrocket just due to extra testing. But if a lot of cases are mild and in the young, maybe they'll never reach a stage where they would be asked to be tested.

Here is perhaps one of the most important developments yet to help battle this virus. A multinational team based in NY have developed a test to find out who has had Covid, and thus who may now be immune. This could have a huge impact to get health workers some protection, find out more real numbers for the disease and give some positive news once larger numbers show that mortality rates are actually, and definitively, lower than thought.

A short article:
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/6153 ... really-is/

The study "pre-print" brief:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20037713v1

That is very good news since the plasma treatment needs to find these people who have had the virus, hopefully they can and will donate plasma.

What a great way for some of the non-boomers to make some coin. They can sell their plasma for some extra coin. Heaven knows they'll need the money while the economy shrivels...

DW

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The great aim of education is not knowledge but action. - Herbert Spencer
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by obvert »

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: obvert

With schools closing here and tests going up to 25k a day I wonder what numbers will look like in a week? I would say they're going to skyrocket just due to extra testing. But if a lot of cases are mild and in the young, maybe they'll never reach a stage where they would be asked to be tested.

Here is perhaps one of the most important developments yet to help battle this virus. A multinational team based in NY have developed a test to find out who has had Covid, and thus who may now be immune. This could have a huge impact to get health workers some protection, find out more real numbers for the disease and give some positive news once larger numbers show that mortality rates are actually, and definitively, lower than thought.

A short article:
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/6153 ... really-is/

The study "pre-print" brief:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20037713v1

That is very good news since the plasma treatment needs to find these people who have had the virus, hopefully they can and will donate plasma.

Great point! I hadn't put two and two together there. That is a huge connection! [&o]
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill
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