OT: Corona virus

[alanschu]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

It probably is due to more testing being done, at least I hope so.

Always the hard part of assessing yeah. How much increase (or decrease) comes from fluctuations in detection as opposed to transmission.

[MakeeLearn]

‘Disproportional number’ of millennials are seriously ill from Coronavirus
Published: 4:14 PM CDT March 18, 2020

https://www.khou.com/article/news/healt ... 2076296645


"There are concerning reports coming out of France and Italy about some young people getting seriously ill and very seriously ill in the ICUs,” said Dr. Deborah Birx, who is leading the White House Coronavirus task force.

In Texas, the Coronavirus patients who are in critical condition include: A Dallas-area woman in her 20s; a Dallas-area woman in her 30s; A man and woman in their 40s in Montgomery County; and a man in his 40s in Lewisville.

All of these cases were community spread and none had underlying conditions, according to reports."

[RangerJoe]

I used to donate plasma. They don't want mine anymore nor blood from me. [:(] Unless they are mosquitoes . . . [:@]

[Sammy5IsAlive]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

‘Disproportional number’ of millennials are seriously ill from Coronavirus
Published: 4:14 PM CDT March 18, 2020

https://www.khou.com/article/news/healt ... 2076296645


"There are concerning reports coming out of France and Italy about some young people getting seriously ill and very seriously ill in the ICUs,” said Dr. Deborah Birx, who is leading the White House Coronavirus task force.

In Texas, the Coronavirus patients who are in critical condition include: A Dallas-area woman in her 20s; a Dallas-area woman in her 30s; A man and woman in their 40s in Montgomery County; and a man in his 40s in Lewisville.

All of these cases were community spread and none had underlying conditions, according to reports."

Speculating here, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was data along these lines which prompted the shift in policy in the UK from 'carry on as normal but protect the vulnerable' to 'everybody batten down the hatches'. Whilst a look at the headline mortality figures might suggest the former could work, the wider data suggests that whilst younger/less vulnerable people may be unlikely to die they still require hospital treatment of varying degrees including critical care and in some cases ventilation. If those facilities become overwhelmed not only do those younger patients start dying but the mortality rate amongst the elderly/already ill rockets and you start seeing what you might call 'secondary deaths' of people who die of other conditions due to the health service being overwhelmed.

The more critical voices in the UK are suggesting that this data is not 'new' as our government and Dr. Birx are suggesting but was apparent back in February when the virus was confined to China. See for example https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... vice-wrong

[alanschu]

Unsurprisingly US numbers are shooting up pretty aggressively.

1748 new cases yesterday and so far 2780 today. I suspect this is largely because testing is starting to ramp up.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Zorch

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

In Philadelphia, the new Chief of Police, whose last name is Outlaw[;)], just ordered the Police not to arrest anyone for a number of crimes: narcotics, theft from persons, retail theft, burglary, theft from vehicles, stolen cars, prostitution, and bench warrants. As I understand they will fill out the proper paperwork, but let the criminal go.

Not exactly. Please see https://6abc.com/commissioner-philly-po ... e/6023921/
Excerpt below.

"Persons who commit certain nonviolent offenses will be arrested at the scene. Once their identity has been confirmed, they will be released and processed via arrest warrant," Outlaw said.

According to Outlaw, this is similar to the 'summons process' that is utilized in many other counties throughout the Commonwealth.

She explained if the officer and supervisor believe the individual poses a threat to public safety, the suspect can be taken into custody for immediate processing.

"Officers will use discretion on how a person is processed," she said.

That is Outlaw's spin on it....Beat Cops will have no say in how the person is handled -- they will have the discretion to call a detective/supervisor and request a person is arrested and processed normally (pre-covid) if a danger to the community (which is arguably everyone on the list).

All the above cases would normally have been tucked away until the Philly DA let them go. Philly's DA is horrendously bad from a law and order pov and very good from a social justice point of view.

I have a bridge to sell you if you think that somewhere in the future the Philly Police will actually process the backlog. The arrest paperwork is merely for insurance purposes.

The summons process mentioned is usually (always?) a misdemeanor crime...burglary is a 1st degree felony charge in PA with a sentence up to 20 years for example. If nobody is present in the building and there is no beds then it can be downgraded to a 2nd degree felony.

[tolsdorff]

Interesting perspective from an airline pilot about the effects on the air industry

[RangerJoe]

People with blood type A may be more susceptible to coronavirus

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/heal ... 09331.html

[Zorch]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: Zorch

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

In Philadelphia, the new Chief of Police, whose last name is Outlaw[;)], just ordered the Police not to arrest anyone for a number of crimes: narcotics, theft from persons, retail theft, burglary, theft from vehicles, stolen cars, prostitution, and bench warrants. As I understand they will fill out the proper paperwork, but let the criminal go.

Not exactly. Please see https://6abc.com/commissioner-philly-po ... e/6023921/
Excerpt below.

"Persons who commit certain nonviolent offenses will be arrested at the scene. Once their identity has been confirmed, they will be released and processed via arrest warrant," Outlaw said.

According to Outlaw, this is similar to the 'summons process' that is utilized in many other counties throughout the Commonwealth.

She explained if the officer and supervisor believe the individual poses a threat to public safety, the suspect can be taken into custody for immediate processing.

"Officers will use discretion on how a person is processed," she said.

That is Outlaw's spin on it....Beat Cops will have no say in how the person is handled -- they will have the discretion to call a detective/supervisor and request a person is arrested and processed normally (pre-covid) if a danger to the community (which is arguably everyone on the list).

All the above cases would normally have been tucked away until the Philly DA let them go. Philly's DA is horrendously bad from a law and order pov and very good from a social justice point of view.

I have a bridge to sell you if you think that somewhere in the future the Philly Police will actually process the backlog. The arrest paperwork is merely for insurance purposes.

The summons process mentioned is usually (always?) a misdemeanor crime...burglary is a 1st degree felony charge in PA with a sentence up to 20 years for example. If nobody is present in the building and there is no beds then it can be downgraded to a 2nd degree felony.

What is the basis for your claims about how the Philadelphia police handle crimes?

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Zorch

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: Zorch



Not exactly. Please see https://6abc.com/commissioner-philly-po ... e/6023921/
Excerpt below.

"Persons who commit certain nonviolent offenses will be arrested at the scene. Once their identity has been confirmed, they will be released and processed via arrest warrant," Outlaw said.

According to Outlaw, this is similar to the 'summons process' that is utilized in many other counties throughout the Commonwealth.

She explained if the officer and supervisor believe the individual poses a threat to public safety, the suspect can be taken into custody for immediate processing.

"Officers will use discretion on how a person is processed," she said.

That is Outlaw's spin on it....Beat Cops will have no say in how the person is handled -- they will have the discretion to call a detective/supervisor and request a person is arrested and processed normally (pre-covid) if a danger to the community (which is arguably everyone on the list).

All the above cases would normally have been tucked away until the Philly DA let them go. Philly's DA is horrendously bad from a law and order pov and very good from a social justice point of view.

I have a bridge to sell you if you think that somewhere in the future the Philly Police will actually process the backlog. The arrest paperwork is merely for insurance purposes.

The summons process mentioned is usually (always?) a misdemeanor crime...burglary is a 1st degree felony charge in PA with a sentence up to 20 years for example. If nobody is present in the building and there is no beds then it can be downgraded to a 2nd degree felony.

What is the basis for your claims about how the Philadelphia police handle crimes?

If you check post 1246, I believe that will provide the basis for such claims.

[Zorch]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: Zorch

ORIGINAL: Lowpe



That is Outlaw's spin on it....Beat Cops will have no say in how the person is handled -- they will have the discretion to call a detective/supervisor and request a person is arrested and processed normally (pre-covid) if a danger to the community (which is arguably everyone on the list).

All the above cases would normally have been tucked away until the Philly DA let them go. Philly's DA is horrendously bad from a law and order pov and very good from a social justice point of view.

I have a bridge to sell you if you think that somewhere in the future the Philly Police will actually process the backlog. The arrest paperwork is merely for insurance purposes.

The summons process mentioned is usually (always?) a misdemeanor crime...burglary is a 1st degree felony charge in PA with a sentence up to 20 years for example. If nobody is present in the building and there is no beds then it can be downgraded to a 2nd degree felony.

What is the basis for your claims about how the Philadelphia police handle crimes?

If you check post 1246, I believe that will provide the basis for such claims.

RJ, Please read Outlaw's response in post #1254. Lowpe's Post #1246 is below; it does not support the allegations in Lowpe's #1265.



In Philadelphia Suburbs of PA is the hotspot in PA with 47 infected in the neighboring (2 miles from my home) county and 14 in my county. We were the first counties to be ordered by the Governor to shut down.... I can only imagine the economic suffering of businesses in the area especially small business.

In Philadelphia, the new Chief of Police, whose last name is Outlaw, just ordered the Police not to arrest anyone for a number of crimes: narcotics, theft from persons, retail theft, burglary, theft from vehicles, stolen cars, prostitution, and bench warrants. As I understand they will fill out the proper paperwork, but let the criminal go.

My daughter in law is a Heart Surgeon from Vanderbilt, and just returned from Spain 7 days ago. She is optimistic for the outcome in the US with the global level of mild case percentage increasing daily with the mortality rate decreasing as treatments become understood. I gather there were initial medical treatments that worsened the condition spiking the mortality rate.

Stay safe, and practice your flu protocol...

[geofflambert]

Interesting chart. Found here where there's lots more interesting stuff: http://tabletopwhale.com/index.html

[Zorch]

ORIGINAL: geofflambert

Interesting chart. Found here where there's lots more interesting stuff: http://tabletopwhale.com/index.html

Thank you for reminding me that I definitely do not want to contract any kind of virus...

[Ian R]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Ian R

REALITY CHECK PLEASE!

[snip]

Hold on. Not sure what you're getting at, [snip]

What I am getting at is that the flu has probably killed more people since last October than covid 19. US figures:

the CDC has estimated (based on weekly influenza surveillance data) that at least 12,000 people have died from influenza between Oct. 1, 2019 through Feb. 1, 2020, and the number of deaths may be as high as 30,000.

There's a Virus Spreading in U.S. That's Killed 10,000: The Flu

AS at 18 March, across the entire world there have been more than 190,600 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and more than 7,700 deaths.

Please read that again:

Deaths from influenza in the USA alone: at least 12,000, possibly 30,000 ( I couldn't find a reliable world estimate).

Deaths from covid-19 n the entire world - 7,700

What we are seeing is a social media driven hyped up response by twitchy politicians. Death by influenza is socially acceptable, apparently.

I am not even going to put a link to some of the specialists who are saying that mass lockdowns, and isolations, are the wrong approach, and that we should trust in herd immunity, and carry on as usual, given that we do that with the flu, which by the way kills more people.

[Ian R]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

snip

Apologies for not directly responding but please see my note to Obvert about flu deaths above.

[geofflambert]

Influenza is widespread and the mortality rate is about one tenth of one percent. This coronavirus is just getting warmed up. The mortality rate looks to be well above one percent. Heard an "expert" today (and I'm sure this expert knows way more than you or I) say he's looking at a worst case of 1.7 million dead in the US alone. The flu is around all year long (I've had it in the summer and it was awful) busy evolving the entire time. The exposure for this virus is a miniscule percentage of that for the flu at any given time, up til now. Things are accelerating here. China seems to have a handle on it and hopefully we will too.

[geofflambert]

From: https://www.thelocal.it/20200123/flu-ou ... -in-a-week

[RangerJoe]

Avoid taking ibuprofen for COVID-19 symptoms: WHO

https://news.yahoo.com/avoid-taking-ibu ... 07508.html

[geofflambert]

. note: Italy has done a much better job than the US at testing, so far.

[geofflambert]

I think I said this before. To my knowledge I don't know anyone personally who died of the flu. I expect to know at least one person who will die of this, and I'm worried for myself, as a matter of fact. If that happens, you will know at least one person who dies of this.