OT - The New Coronavirus

[Curtis Lemay]

Today's Worldwide figures:
Total Cases: 282395
Total Recovered: 93189
Total Deaths: 11822
(Wikipedia)

Death Rate: 11822 \ (11822 + 93189) = 11.3%

Review for the week, starting Sunday:

7.1%, 7.9%, 8.5%, 9.4%, 9.8%, 10.5%, 11.3%.

[rico21]

Are there several wikipedia?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%8 ... s_pandemic









--->4.13%

[MrRoadrunner]

I'm not dumb and I am not a smart person either.
I think looking only at recovered to deaths as a percentage is a skewed model.

We have figures that show total cases versus total deaths. I am not saying that you should look at unknown versus a known. I am not asking anyone to speculate. I just don't see that the actual "recovered to deaths" is the right model.

If the remainder of the total has not recovered or died what happened to them?

Take the following "figures" into account and see if you can see a constant?

213557 total cases versus 8790 deaths equals 4.11 percent.
225252 total cases versus 9276 deaths equals 4.11 percent.
255729 total cases versus 10495 deaths equals 4.10 percent.
282395 total cases versus 11822 deaths equals 4.18 percent.

Statistically it tells me that roughly four percent of the total infected will die. The higher the infected the higher the death rates? But, statistically the model shows that the four percent has been a constant the entire time?

And,as stated by others, it is the total burden on the medical system infrastructure and the infrastructure of the food chain that will be most effected directly by the totals that cause future possible breakdowns in each.

I'm personally affected by the fact that my company has shut down our two stores in Pennsylvania. I feel bad for those associates working paycheck to paycheck depending on us to be open and the many contractors working job to job to keep their businesses afloat.
The domino effect of breaking down the system and protecting those from getting the virus?

I'm probably far off the mark. But, I see the breakdown of the system's both medical and economical as the most concerning part in this whole thing.

RR

[RangerJoe]

OOOPS!

[rommel222]

Greetings to All:
NY state now #1 for Corona Virus cases and now on lockdown for 100% workforce stay at home:
https://www.wamc.org/post/cuomo-orders- ... -home-work
https://cbs6albany.com/news/coronavirus ... s-concerns
https://www.wamc.org/post/nys-thruway-a ... g-mail-now

I will be cancelling my oncologist visit in Albany NY this week to avoid the drastic increase in Corona Virus cases there.

The Northway is NY state Rt 87(NY city to Canadian border super highway) has a very large number of NY state troopers deployed.
Come Monday they may start pulling drivers over to inquire why they are out (local TV & radio stations are trying to find out).

[Canoerebel]

Unfortunately, the "shelter at home" tactic may have the opposite effect than that intended.

This info comes from a link posted by Ranger (in the Matrix: AE forums) earlier today: https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/ev ... 767def5894

[Piteas]

Sorry, Canoerebel, but the quarantine is the only way that the sanitary system doesn´t collapse. The virus remains on plastic and paper for days, on coins or metals for several hours, it is very resistant. it is not enough to be apart on the street. I have got experience.
However, the big problem isn´t the lethality (terrible although), the problem are the sicks in the ICU, they´re thousands in my country right now. They need breathing machines or two consequences: they will die soon (if older or asthmatic people) or suffer lung problems the rest of their lifes. Because this virus isn´t a simple flu... It devours the pulmonary alveoli! No one is completely healthy after it. The life may be a continuous shortness of breath for working after a bad recovery.
Breathing machines are already lacking for everyone in my country. Doctors are choosing who uses the machine and who should survive without it, hoping for a worse recovery (or the death). It´s a terrible choice.
Meanwhile, all my family and all Spain stand at home. Army on the streets, checkpoints on the squares... Hoping best times.

[Canoerebel]

His point is that quarantining will have unintended consequences and that there may be merit to the less-restrictive measures taken by countries like South Korea, et al.

I'm passing that along for thought, not with any endorsement. I'm glad my country is erring on the side of caution, at least until we get a firm handle on this thing. I think we'll know a lot more with the benefit of what's going on, and what's being done, in Europe.

Good luck to y'all in Spain!

[RangerJoe]

This is what is happening:

Cytokine release syndrome (CRS) is a form of systemic inflammatory response syndrome that can be triggered by a variety of factors such as infections and certain drugs. It occurs when large numbers of white blood cells are activated and release inflammatory cytokines, which in turn activate yet more white blood cells. CRS is also an adverse effect of some monoclonal antibody drugs, as well as adoptive T-cell therapies. Severe cases have been called cytokine storms.[2] When occurring as a result of drug administration, it is also known as an infusion reaction.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytokine_release_syndrome

How to fight it:

Cytokine Storm and Herbs: Life or Death Information!

10/21/2015

UPDATED ARTICLE AS OF MARCH 2020!
Many people hear the word "Cytokine Storm" and think it is a weather prediction.

However, this storm is one that can kill you. It is a "body weather prediction".

A cytokine storm can kill you. It occurs when a very severe viral infection (such as Swine Flu H1N1 or Bird Flu H5N1 - many people are now very worried about it based on the Coronavirus) takes control of your immune system and causes immune confusion in your body. Basically your body starts to work on overdrive and becomes really confused. This reaction called "Cytokine Storm" over activates your body to where normal feedback loops designed to calm things down fail to operate. (See the Medical Dictionary definition here.)

Your immune system becomes a runaway freight train where high fever, massive inflammation, extreme fatigue, vomiting and diarrhea dominate every minute of your existence. Did you know that MOST of the 25 million people that died in the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic died from a cytokine storm? Wow... that's good information to know. You don’t want to be caught in a cytokine storm.


You see, when someone in your house gets "the sniffles" there are so many wonderful ways of treating the illness through a natural route. Elderberry Syrup, First Defense, essential oils, diffusing, baths, glycerites, tinctures... In essence there are a lot of resources to use in order to combat the illness before it gets worse.

However, if someone in your care (including yourself of course) gets ill and it keeps getting worse, and worse, and worse and worse... you could be FEEDING the problem by what herbs you are using.

There are some herbs that COMBAT the Cytokine Storm and aid your body in fighting it, and there are other herbs that actually make it worse.

Here is a list of herbs that help to COMBAT Cytokine Storm (and if you keep getting more and more sick, these are the herbs to INCREASE), basically the good guys:
-Turmeric
-Elder LEAF
-Yarrow
-Cayenne
-Garlic
-Ginger
-Horseradish
-Red Raspberry
-Chinese Skullcap
-St. Johns Wort (check any interactions this might have with depression meds)
-Tea Tree Oil
-Vitamin C (lots of it! - and take it with a green spinach smoothie so your body has the iron to absorb it properly)
-Vitamin D

And remember, herbs are NOT like pharmaceutical drugs - they are NOT long term release - they are short term release. Meaning that when you are treating yourself with herbs you need to use them regularly. In the case of illness, supporting your cellular health each hour with herbs is perfectly fine!


So... How do I recognize a Cytokine Storm?

Once again, if you or anyone in your care is just starting to get sick, the risk of cytokine storm isn't substantiated yet.

However, if these signs show up and the illness keeps escalating, then be aware that a Cytokine Storm could be upon you (Please see THIS ARTICLE for further information on cytokine storm):
-High Fever for extended period of time (102*+ for 2 full days without breaking) - See this article about the basics of fevers, gives excellent information and medical guidelines.
-Swelling and redness on the body
-EXTREME fatigue
-Nausea and diarrhea consistent for 2 full days
-Rapid resting heart rate (over 100 beats per minute)

Remember, please seek medical attention in the case of an emergency. Don't avoid medical help when a Cytokine Storm could be upon you or anyone in your care - because it can be fatal!

[sPzAbt653]

The Maryland National Guard sneaks into Baltimore City overnight and hides under the overpass at Ravens Stadium. Awaiting the order for Martial Law? Politicians say the MNG is on site for humanitarian purposes. [:(]

[Lobster]

ORIGINAL: MrRoadrunner

I'm not dumb and I am not a smart person either.
I think looking only at recovered to deaths as a percentage is a skewed model.

We have figures that show total cases versus total deaths. I am not saying that you should look at unknown versus a known. I am not asking anyone to speculate. I just don't see that the actual "recovered to deaths" is the right model.

If the remainder of the total has not recovered or died what happened to them?

Take the following "figures" into account and see if you can see a constant?

213557 total cases versus 8790 deaths equals 4.11 percent.
225252 total cases versus 9276 deaths equals 4.11 percent.
255729 total cases versus 10495 deaths equals 4.10 percent.
282395 total cases versus 11822 deaths equals 4.18 percent.

Statistically it tells me that roughly four percent of the total infected will die. The higher the infected the higher the death rates? But, statistically the model shows that the four percent has been a constant the entire time?

And,as stated by others, it is the total burden on the medical system infrastructure and the infrastructure of the food chain that will be most effected directly by the totals that cause future possible breakdowns in each.

I'm personally affected by the fact that my company has shut down our two stores in Pennsylvania. I feel bad for those associates working paycheck to paycheck depending on us to be open and the many contractors working job to job to keep their businesses afloat.
The domino effect of breaking down the system and protecting those from getting the virus?

I'm probably far off the mark. But, I see the breakdown of the system's both medical and economical as the most concerning part in this whole thing.

RR

You can't say something has happened until it has happened. Before it has happened it's all theories and models based on theories. While that might get you an idea of what might happen it is not definitive proof of what will happen. The only solid science would be measuring what has actually happened. It's in the past and cannot be changed by outside influences other than lies (in this case the Chinese and Iranian governments) or incorrect data (in this case overwhelmed systems).

[Lobster]

Based on the low number of cases reported by Russia and the fact that they closed their borders before anyone else I'd say there's a good argument they seeded the disease in Wuhan and then blamed it on the U.s. [:D][:D][:D]


HEALTH AND SCIENCE
Russia closes border with China to prevent spread of the coronavirus
PUBLISHED THU, JAN 30 20207:48 AM ESTUPDATED THU, JAN 30 20208:48 AM EST

[Jace11]

ORIGINAL: Zorch

Science News has an article about 'Why some heart patients may be especially vulnerable to COVID-19'
People with hypertension and cardiovascular disease risk severe bouts of the disease

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/cor ... vulnerable

Yup... ACE2 may be the key. It is also crucial in mitigating lung damage. ACE2 knock-out mice become very leaky after lung tissue damage, this is expected, as the angiotensin system is out of balance. Mice challenged with the the old SARS looked like there was no ACE2 in the lungs. ACE2 is an important factor in protecting the lung from damage, but this virus is targeting those pneumocytes that express it (probably exclusively - as this is the target of the S-protein).

It's a double whammy attack! A lung infection that also takes out the lungs ability to mitigate the damage. It's also X-linked, and there is a 2:1 gender bias is severe cases and deaths, but this could also be explained by other factors (men drink, smoke, and are more prone to high BP, cardiovascular dz). Type I and II Diabetes have upregulated ACE2 too (often prescribed ACE blockers and ARBs) - that is another reported comorbidity.

Recombinant soluble ACE2 is close to clinical trials in China.

The hypertension bias in the latest Italian data ... 76%
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronaviru ... rzo-v2.pdf

[Franciscus]

ORIGINAL: Franciscus

ORIGINAL: TulliusDetritus

Our cardiologist contributor (Franciscus, he knows how hospitals work) already told us that the mortality rate is sort of missing the point.

The scary point is NO HEALTHCARE SYSTEM in the world can absorb the really sick cases if you don't stop the virus from infecting right and left.

NOT A SINGLE ONE

I can’t stress this enough !!
What is happening in Italy is a first-world healthcare system overloaded with too much critically ill patients in a short period of time.

The tragedy is compounded by the fact that many of the critically ill covid patients die for lack of resources, but the mortality of the other critically ill patients (with other diseases like heart attacks, strokes, bacterial pneumonia, accident victims, etc) will also increase dramatically because the healthcare system has collapsed.

It is a tragedy that will change our world

Read and watch.
And understand...

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... e-11961130

[z1812]

ORIGINAL: Lobster

Based on the low number of cases reported by Russia and the fact that they closed their borders before anyone else I'd say there's a good argument they seeded the disease in Wuhan and then blamed it on the U.s. [:D][:D][:D]


HEALTH AND SCIENCE
Russia closes border with China to prevent spread of the coronavirus
PUBLISHED THU, JAN 30 20207:48 AM ESTUPDATED THU, JAN 30 20208:48 AM EST

.............or, alternatively, there is a good argument that they behaved more responsibly than others.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Jace11

ORIGINAL: Zorch

Science News has an article about 'Why some heart patients may be especially vulnerable to COVID-19'
People with hypertension and cardiovascular disease risk severe bouts of the disease

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/cor ... vulnerable

Yup... ACE2 may be the key. It is also crucial in mitigating lung damage. ACE2 knock-out mice become very leaky after lung tissue damage, this is expected, as the angiotensin system is out of balance. Mice challenged with the the old SARS looked like there was no ACE2 in the lungs. ACE2 is an important factor in protecting the lung from damage, but this virus is targeting those pneumocytes that express it (probably exclusively - as this is the target of the S-protein).

It's a double whammy attack! A lung infection that also takes out the lungs ability to mitigate the damage. It's also X-linked, and there is a 2:1 gender bias is severe cases and deaths, but this could also be explained by other factors (men drink, smoke, and are more prone to high BP, cardiovascular dz). Type I and II Diabetes have upregulated ACE2 too (often prescribed ACE blockers and ARBs) - that is another reported comorbidity.

Recombinant soluble ACE2 is close to clinical trials in China.

The hypertension bias in the latest Italian data ... 76%
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronaviru ... rzo-v2.pdf

I had already mentioned ACE2 and possibly using free ACE2 to bind with the virus so it will not be able to infect cells. But the ACE channel blockers are a different ACE.

[TulliusDetritus]

ORIGINAL: TulliusDetritus

Feel free to ignore [...] the head of a visiting Chinese Red Cross delegation helping Italy.

Well, Italians understood the partial lockdown was not enough (not working). Now total lockdown, they stop the economy basically.

The South Korean approach only works when you react quickly. In the EU, that is not the case (too late), so we'll need the Chinese sledgehammer. Sounds rational if you want to save the people, not the economy (as some sociopaths suggest) [;)]

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: TulliusDetritus

ORIGINAL: TulliusDetritus

Feel free to ignore [...] the head of a visiting Chinese Red Cross delegation helping Italy.

Well, Italians understood the partial lockdown was not enough (not working). Now total lockdown, they stop the economy basically.

The South Korean approach only works when you react quickly. In the EU, that is not the case (too late), so we'll need the Chinese sledgehammer. Sounds rational if you want to save the people, not the economy (as some sociopaths suggest) [;)]

Without the people, the economy is no good.

South Korea was hit by SARs while Europe was not so the Koreans understood what needed to be done and passed laws so they could do it.

[TulliusDetritus]

South Koreans were very efficient and competent. In Europe, just a bunch of incompetents that will get many of us killed. I hope you're more competent in the US: you will need it.

... grab the sledgehammer... or else...

[sPzAbt653]

Also in Maryland, the government has established a hotline for citizens to call and report groups of ten or more people gathering. See Something - Say Something. Report on your neighbors!

And we have overhead signs on the highways that proclaim
STAY SAFE - STAY HOME.

784 die in Italy since yesterday. I hope our in-country friend RFalvo is safe, I look forward to his reports.