OT: Corona virus

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Kull
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Kull »

ORIGINAL: obvert

The same article mentioned robotic testing, but said that was a ways off. I agree, it is shocking, and I can't see how it goes up that much in such a short period. Unless they're going door to door.

Spain is being.....less than forthright about testing. From Warspite's link in Post 1677 above, we learn that Germany credits aggressive testing (to include contact tracing) for their low mortality rates. So who are they testing, and what is the capacity?
"Crucially, Germany started testing people even with milder symptoms relatively early on, meaning the total number of confirmed cases may give a more accurate picture of the virus’s spread than in other states.

According to Germany’s National Association of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians, the country has capacity for about 12,000 Covid-19 tests per day".

Meanwhile what's been going on in Spain? Take a look at the chart below (#1 on the attachment) and you'll see the case growth in Spain. The initial enforced distancing measures didn't start until March 10th (just two days after 375,000 people gathered in Madrid for the International Women’s Day protest), and the government didn't declare the national state of emergency until March 14th. There was also an article just two days ago (can't find the link), in which the emergency council noted that only serious cases were being tested. In other words, there wasn't then and there isn't now the same type of contact tracing we saw in South Korea or what's being reported from Germany.

If you look at the "Ref" column on the Testing Wiki page, it contains links to the documents from which they obtained the testing numbers. In this case (see #2 on the attachment) "70" is the newspaper article containing the 355K total tests figure. There are some interesting quotes:
"At a press conference after the daily meeting of the coronavirus management committee, Sierra has reported a notable increase in recent days with regard to COVID-19 diagnoses after the Minister of Health, Salvador Illa, said days ago, that 30,000 had been made, a figure that the Government has clarified that at the time was "partial" and did not include all the data that was available so far. Since the state of alarm came into effect, cooperation between communities has improved and the 355,000 tests correspond to data offered by all hospitals. They are being carried out across the country at a daily rate of between 15,000 and 20,000 tests."

So 30,000 tests just "days ago" (as in THREE days ago - I have the screenshot and posted it here earlier) was only "partial", but has now blossomed into 355,000 because that's data from "all hospitals". And the national capacity is "a daily rate of between 15,000 and 20,000 tests". In other words, Spain has more testing capacity than Germany. OK then.

So let's see, at 20K/day (for the sake of argument we'll use the fantasy number) that would be 160,000 tests since the SOE was declared on March 14th. If we go back to the 10th, it would be 240,000. If we want 355K, that means max testing capacity running since....March 4th.

In other words, the same government that allowed a massive gathering in the capital on March 8th was also making sure that Spain was running at full Covid-19 testing capacity 4 days earlier and every day since. Sure. Totally believable.

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Kull
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Kull »

ORIGINAL: geofflambert

Last I knew, India wasn't testing, and that's why their numbers are so low. I believe a lot of people are dying without the actual cause being known. In some ways she's really not in this century yet. I don't want to start anything and I don't know enough to do that but Muslims and lower caste people are not always treated like real people who matter.

A country with the sort of healthcare system which can't prevent 120,000 new cases of leprosy every year is not well positioned for this kind of virus.

Not that they've done well against the flu, either. Guess which country was hardest hit by the Spanish Influenza:
And, in 1918, all it took was a few months. An estimated 10-20 million Indians died (a fifth of the global death toll, making India the worst-hit country). The Ghats along the River Ganga ran out of wood as the bodies piled up, according to a letter written by renowned Hindi poet Nirala, which is available in his collected works. Prominent citizens from Mahatma Gandhi to writer Munshi Premchand are suspected to have fallen sick before recovering.

And, the disease left a devastating impact on the economy.

In the last 120 years of recorded economic history in India, 1918 was the worst (see Chart 1). Recorded growth in real gross domestic product (GDP) was the lowest (-10.5%) while inflation was near all-time highs, a cocktail much worse than any other tragedy that has hit India—including the world wars or the Bengal famine.
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Ian R »

ORIGINAL: warspite1

The situation in Germany (certainly in comparison to Italy) is really strange. Here is an interesting article on this.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... es-experts


I don't find that puzzling. Ze Germans are very precise engineers, and may simply be doing better at this point.
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Ian R »

ORIGINAL: Kull

ORIGINAL: geofflambert

Last I knew, India wasn't testing, and that's why their numbers are so low. I believe a lot of people are dying without the actual cause being known. In some ways she's really not in this century yet. I don't want to start anything and I don't know enough to do that but Muslims and lower caste people are not always treated like real people who matter.

A country with the sort of healthcare system which can't prevent 120,000 new cases of leprosy every year is not well positioned for this kind of virus.

Kull, what figures do you have for Bangladesh?

From what I have seen it looks like the Deshis have herd immunity. There are only 20 cases.

Nonetheless WHO wants them to lock down, and they have shut Dhaka's biggest brothel.

WHO wants Bangladesh shutdown

Coronavirus: Bangladesh shuts largest brothel over Covid-19 fears


EDit: Had to quote this part:
Ashiqur [local Police chief] said the police has requested that the administration allocate about 32 metric tonnes of rice to support the sex workers during the hiatus.

Prostitution is illegal in mainly Muslim Bangladesh, but Ashiqur said they do not interfere in the trade, which has operated in the country for centuries.
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Scott_USN »

I still have not seen anything that requires the hype. Just me just seems people have lost their minds. I went to the store all the beans were there but all garbage food was gone, they left tuna and salmon but got all the raviolis. Weird. You can live off Legumes for a long time and a bit of fish. But they all bought the garbage. There was only some Turkey Balonga left never had any but seemed ok so I bought a pack along with 7 cans of pintos and dozen packs of tuna.

This thing I think reflects the society of instant hysteria, like twitter post and everyone bandwagons. It is the SARS MERS over again and will pass soon.
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Scott_USN »

Or is that Bologna.
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Kull »

ORIGINAL: Ian R

Kull, what figures do you have for Bangladesh?

For leprosy, it's "only" 5000/yr. Full disclosure - as a kid (1966-67) I lived in Bangla Desh (then known as East Pakistan), and you routinely encountered people with leprosy on the streets. There was even one guy who used to hang out near the only English-language movie theatre, so he could pop out of an alley and scare the bejezuss out of western kids. We called him "faceless" - with good reason! In retrospect I can hardly blame him. How many opportunities are there for a guy like that to have fun?
From what I have seen it looks like the Deshis have heard immunity. There are only 20 cases.

I looked around for info on testing (Bangla Desh isn't listed on the wiki), and couldn't find any numbers. However there was an interesting article talking about the impossibility of "social distancing" strategies. Keep in mind that we're talking about a population of 170M in a country the size of Iowa (for you Aussies, that's twice the size of Tasmania):
For a city as dense as Dhaka (18M), maintaining social distance - as suggested by the World Health Organization (WHO) to stop the coronavirus spread - seems like a chimera.

Even staying at home is barely proven to be efficacious in Dhaka - a city with no less than 23,334 people living per square kilometre.

Nadia Tabassum Khan has been working from home for the past one week as her office, a multinational market research firm, allowed their employees to avail the facility.

"Our contractual housemaid however, is making a daily visit to our house from outside," 36-year-old Khan told Al Jazeera.

Khan's housemaid Sulema Begum, a 34-year-old with beetle leaf stained teeth, barely has any idea about the magnitude of coronavirus outbreak. She hardly knows about the pandemic that has infected more than 200,000 people worldwide and killed nearly 10,000 people.

In her slum at Beribandh in the south of Dhaka, where at least 20,000 people live in extremely close quarters, with most residents little aware of the threat due to the disease.

"We have seen on the TV that people are washing hands and advise everyone to do the same. A bottle of hand wash costs more than 120 takas (about $1.4). It is hard for me to afford it," said a nonchalant Begum.

"Besides, in the slum, there is one toilet for every 10 families. We don't even have a regular water supply in the toilet," Begum added.

I can visualize every bit of that. I remember our family visiting a sick maid (she had smallpox...let that sink in) and the slum was...appalling. I can't imagine things are much better. If/when the virus starts working through that population? Ugh.
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by RangerJoe »

ORIGINAL: Ian R

ORIGINAL: warspite1

The situation in Germany (certainly in comparison to Italy) is really strange. Here is an interesting article on this.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... es-experts


I don't find that puzzling. Ze Germans are very precise engineers, and may simply be doing better at this point.

My understanding is that most of the German Corona virus cases come from the young people who went south into the mountains on winter holiday. Since they should be younger and with fewer health problems, you should expect a lower death toll. Also, I don't believe that they were into hugging the Chinese who carried the virus, unlike what the Italian government asked their people to do - that is, to hug the Chinese. That hugging was probably done when China stated that the disease was not transmittable from person to person.
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Ian R »

ORIGINAL: Kull

I can't imagine things are much better. If/when the virus starts working through that population? Ugh.

If it does - they are in close proximity to China, have done very little so far, yet seem untroubled.
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Ian R »

ORIGINAL: Kull

a country the size of Iowa (for you Aussies, that's twice the size of Tasmania):

Speaking of Tasmania, they pulled up the draw bridge a few days ago; us foreigners from the mainland are not allowed to enter the state.

It's as if the politicians here are having a contest to see who can impose the most draconian lockdown rules. NSW ordered all licensed premises to close indefinitely at midday today (90 minutes ago). Off licenses are, however, still operating so all is not lost.


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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by geofflambert »

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


Also, I don't believe that they were into hugging the Chinese who carried the virus, unlike what the Italian government asked their people to do - that is, to hug the Chinese. That hugging was probably done when China stated that the disease was not transmittable from person to person.

They were ordered to hug Chinese? What about gorns?

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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Kull »

ORIGINAL: Ian R
ORIGINAL: Kull

I can't imagine things are much better. If/when the virus starts working through that population? Ugh.

If it does - they are in close proximity to China, have done very little so far, yet seem untroubled.

Thinking about this further, deeply poor 3rd world nations may have something going for them. The average life expectancy in Bangla Desh is 72 (Italy is 82) and the median age is 27 (Italy is 45). And who does this virus target? The old and those with "underlying conditions".

Think about a deeply impoverished country with marginal (if that) healthcare. How many people survive the underlying conditions, much less live long lives with them? In some ways, those countries who are least prepared to handle this, have populations whose age dynamic makes them better equipped to survive.

Edit: In fact, if you want an interesting exercise, correlate the Median Age by country in this table with those which are most (and least) affected. Interesting correlation here.

Edit 2: The youngest country in the world is Niger (15.4 y/o). Number of cases? 2
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by RangerJoe »

ORIGINAL: geofflambert

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


Also, I don't believe that they were into hugging the Chinese who carried the virus, unlike what the Italian government asked their people to do - that is, to hug the Chinese. That hugging was probably done when China stated that the disease was not transmittable from person to person.

They were ordered to hug Chinese? What about gorns?

I think that they were instructed to use them to substitute for chickens.
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Scott_USN »

Lizard Overlords will fall with this Chinese Virus!
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RE: OT: Corona virus

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Korean researchers found substance inhibiting COVID-19

http://m.koreabiomed.com/news/articleVi ... idxno=7744
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RE: OT: Corona virus

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A group of Korean researchers reported Wednesday that medical workers can find and use an antibody to treat the new coronavirus, from the antibodies of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome.

Korean researchers find antibody to neutralize COVID-19

http://m.koreabiomed.com/news/articleVi ... idxno=7617
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by geofflambert »

ORIGINAL: Kull

Keep in mind that we're talking about a population of 170M in a country the size of Iowa (for you Aussies, that's twice the size of Tasmania):

Along with elephants, rhinos, tigers, crocodiles and gorns (I think). Iowa does get floods now and then but ...

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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by alanschu »

ORIGINAL: Kull

Thinking about this further, deeply poor 3rd world nations may have something going for them. The average life expectancy in Bangla Desh is 72 (Italy is 82) and the median age is 27 (Italy is 45). And who does this virus target? The old and those with "underlying conditions".

Think about a deeply impoverished country with marginal (if that) healthcare. How many people survive the underlying conditions, much less live long lives with them? In some ways, those countries who are least prepared to handle this, have populations whose age dynamic makes them better equipped to survive.

Edit: In fact, if you want an interesting exercise, correlate the Median Age by country in this table with those which are most (and least) affected. Interesting correlation here.

Edit 2: The youngest country in the world is Niger (15.4 y/o). Number of cases? 2

I haven't done anything more than the most superficial of investigation, but I had noticed that it seemed like wealthier countries were more impacted.

Off the cuff I assumed it was probably due to greater economic activity (i.e. importing and moving goods around, particularly from China) as well as greater propensity to travel among the population.

Median age is an interesting metric. I also am completely ignorant to say, how much traffic happens along the South Asian states and China and so forth.


EDIT: Obviously there's some outliers which is why I didn't overly investigate it (I'm probably wrong) such as Japan and South Korea.
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by warspite1 »

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: Ian R

ORIGINAL: warspite1

The situation in Germany (certainly in comparison to Italy) is really strange. Here is an interesting article on this.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... es-experts


I don't find that puzzling. Ze Germans are very precise engineers, and may simply be doing better at this point.

My understanding is that most of the German Corona virus cases come from the young people who went south into the mountains on winter holiday. Since they should be younger and with fewer health problems, you should expect a lower death toll. Also, I don't believe that they were into hugging the Chinese who carried the virus, unlike what the Italian government asked their people to do - that is, to hug the Chinese. That hugging was probably done when China stated that the disease was not transmittable from person to person.
warspite1

But this is supposedly a very easily transmitted disease. Those 'young' people coming back from Italy presumably mixed with others before they knew, they had elderly relatives etc.
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by BBfanboy »

ORIGINAL: warspite1

The situation in Germany (certainly in comparison to Italy) is really strange. Here is an interesting article on this.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... es-experts
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