OT: Corona virus

[Kull]

ORIGINAL: obvert

Not sure if you read the article, but in addition to these very valid points, they're essentially not counting possible cases as Covid, not testing much at all, telling people who have symptoms to stay home, and only those with severe pneumonia are getting the very good and aggressive treatments.

So it's some of all of that, but they'e still partying. The Japanese and British have something in common; they lighten up and ease their formality after a pints/bottles of sake. I think there are a lot of cases there now, and the Japanese don't want anyone, including their populace, to know that.

In other words they are treating it exactly like the flu and explicitly avoiding the release of information which can only fuel media insanity.

[Canoerebel]

We posted and discussed the article about the Stanford Noble laureate scientist a couple of days ago, though this thread is so long now that it's basically impossible to keep up.

Hey, we've got our two resident medical experts contributing now, plus our in-house granularity/stats/demographics guru. The quality of information in here is exponentially better than what's available to the general public, IMO.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: witpqs

I saw this article last night positing a reason for the situation in Italy.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/24/the-italian-connection/

The author's theory is that the virus got into Italy's health care system as mild cases not recognized at the time, and has wound up hitting those elderly and vulnerable people whom we know have been hardest hit. The small updates at the end add new info that seems to mitigate in favor of his theory.

While this may be true, the author lists no evidence to support his claim other than the already known age related and co-morbidity numbers. I don't know that those would be terribly different elsewhere. He also doesn't mention that many younger people are hospitalised and need ICUs, etc, which in a triage system likely means those with less chance to survive treatment (age and co-morbidity) are not given the ICU beds. I'd say this as much as anything might be why higher numbers of older people have died. I have no official evidence either, though I have heard this form several first hand accounts of Italian hospitals right now, unfortunately.

It's been widely reported here that one should avoid the Emergency section of any hospital right now in London, as you're likely to come into contact with multiple cases of Covid. I'm sure whether it spreads early or later, those in hospital already were indeed very vulnerable to those who were treating them, visiting them and didn't know they were passing the virus.

Right, if his suspicion is true that could only be shown by a local investigation.

[Kull]

For those who didn't know, Worldometers has per-state tracking of Covid-19 in the USA (see excerpt below). There's also a pair of helpful "Now" and "Yesterday" buttons (circled in red) so you can do quick comparisons.

[MakeeLearn]

Coronavirus deaths in the US could reach peak in three weeks, epidemiologist says
3.25.20

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health ... li=BBnb7Kz



"A leading epidemiologist advising the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has estimated the peak of deaths in the US coronavirus pandemic will be three weeks from now, after which "most of the damage will be done," and says it may be possible to only isolate the vulnerable, allowing many back to work."

[Cap Mandrake]

If intentional or not, the US is not testing everyone either. At the beginning, the CDC had a reliability problem with their test so they RECALLED it and there was essentially no testing. To hide this fact they delegated to local health departments to screen who would get the test but the criteria were so strict nobody was getting tested..even severely ill hospitalized patients with a travel history. It drove me nuts until I figured it out. First the patient needed fever and pneumonia and travel to Hubei Province. Then it was in 10-20 countries but the criteria were expanded to only Italy and Iran.....but there were red dots all over the planet and suspected community spread IN THE US. I saw this family who flew in from Islamabad, which is right near the Iranian border and the pilgrims just walk right across the border like they are crossing a street. Anyway the whole family gets sick as Hell 104-105 fever cough, vomiting. I test everyone for influenza...negative... i call the Health Dept...."low risk, no testing"????????

I'm thinking "What the Hell is wrong with these retards? How are they hoping to contain it?" So I am driving home and a CDC babe comes on National People's Radio and she says..."I told my kids we all need to get ready for major changes in our lives" [X(]

Ohhhhh.....I get it, that was a secret message..they HAVE given up on containment. Bloody annoying. I wish they would just treat everyone like thinking adults.

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

...we all need to get ready for major changes in our lives" [X(]...

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

As for Japan, I suspect it's not "pneumonia" vaccine programs. The vaccine is specific for pneumococcus. The CT findings of COVID pneumonia are very distinctive (peripheral disease and "ground glass" densities. Plus, sick patients usually ARE treated with antibiotics and it doesn't seem to work very well.

possible explanations:

1) A very large number of the initial cases in Japan were from the SS Princess Coronavirus. They knew ahead of time who had the disease with a high level of certainty. These patients were all carefully isolated

2) The Chinese don't very much like the Japanese and I think it's mutual. Last time a large number of Chinese tried to visit Japan the "divine wind" came along and killed them all. I don't think there is very much of a Chinese expat community in Japan like there is in Hawaii and SF and LA and Vancouver and NY and Singapore for eg.

3) Japan has a 100% water frontier.

4) The Japanese public respects seniors and those in authority and they culturally understand the value in social order. They don't go to freaking Spring Break and drink from common beer bongs. In the US, the Surgeon General had to ask the Kardashians for help.

5) Japanese seniors are MUCH healthier than almost any other population. Essentially everyone over about 78 in Japan grew up in wartime deprivation. It turns out if Curtis LeMay didn't drop incendiaries or a nuke on your head, living on calorie restriction in childhood confers longevity. Of course, it does make for lousy basketball teams.

6) Excellent cadre of skilled health providers in Japan and advanced technology

Not sure if you read the article, but in addition to these very valid points, they're essentially not counting possible cases as Covid, not testing much at all, telling people who have symptoms to stay home, and only those with severe pneumonia are getting the very good and aggressive treatments.

So it's some of all of that, but they'e still partying. The Japanese and British have something in common; they lighten up and ease their formality after a pints/bottles of sake. I think there are a lot of cases there now, and the Japanese don't want anyone, including their populace, to know that.

Don't try the Japanese approach in the UK. Not sure British seniors are as healthy. [:)]

Strangely enough, this was very much like the original government plan. Let it run through the population and get "herd immunity" earlier. They quickly realised hospitalisations were much more prevalent than they'd predicted, especially for younger people infected. Which is what makes me wonder about the Japanese. It's not the old so much as the younger, those 2-050, who should still be having to go to the hospital for 5-10% of cases.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Kull

ORIGINAL: obvert

Not sure if you read the article, but in addition to these very valid points, they're essentially not counting possible cases as Covid, not testing much at all, telling people who have symptoms to stay home, and only those with severe pneumonia are getting the very good and aggressive treatments.

So it's some of all of that, but they'e still partying. The Japanese and British have something in common; they lighten up and ease their formality after a pints/bottles of sake. I think there are a lot of cases there now, and the Japanese don't want anyone, including their populace, to know that.

In other words they are treating it exactly like the flu and explicitly avoiding the release of information which can only fuel media insanity.

Well, it is making me wonder. Obviously in some places this is really horrible, and mortality is high. So they're treating it like the flu, and with great treatment of severe cases, but why aren't there more and why aren't hospital filling up like everywhere else.

I'd continue but I have to run out to get a 25kg bag of rice, three fresh salmon and a tin of miso.

[MakeeLearn]

Have a plan...

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

The Chicoms actually accepted lung CT as diagnostic for inclusion into the COVID-19 numbers. They also didn't have enough test kits either at the start. Plus, you can estimate the amount of COPD as well and it was probably useful to tell who would need a vent soon.

I suspect by the time this is over you just throw away your worn out $1M CT machine and don't bother with disinfecting the thing

Good point about COPD triage with CT. But my point (and RSNA's too, I think) was for those 30% of the people for which these CT changes were not diagnostic for COVID-19 related lung disease (the lower specificity) have now been exposed to the agent by use of the diagnostic test. Hardly ideal biosecurity. But then again, maybe having tent city beds two feet apart from one another negates practical biosecurity in that setting anyways. If you didn't have COVID-19 before going into that hospital, you probably did when you (if you) came out.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Kull

ORIGINAL: obvert

Not sure if you read the article, but in addition to these very valid points, they're essentially not counting possible cases as Covid, not testing much at all, telling people who have symptoms to stay home, and only those with severe pneumonia are getting the very good and aggressive treatments.

So it's some of all of that, but they'e still partying. The Japanese and British have something in common; they lighten up and ease their formality after a pints/bottles of sake. I think there are a lot of cases there now, and the Japanese don't want anyone, including their populace, to know that.

In other words they are treating it exactly like the flu and explicitly avoiding the release of information which can only fuel media insanity.

I was looking at Russia's 'low' case number the other day and pondering why St. Petersburg and Moscow (big centers of Russian populace) weren't experiencing any appreciable rise in their caseload. They're still officially at only 658 cases nationally as of today. A "Eureka!" moment when I read the Washington Post article from yesterday:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/eu ... story.html

So, they're not doing much testing. Check. Re-'coding' a significant YOY 37% rise in pneumonia cases as pneumonia and not COVID-19. Check. Lying about it at the national level. Check.

Two observations:

1. The Russians, like the Japanese and the Chinese are dealing with it in a very "Russian" way.
2. Advice to the Moscow mayor: Don't drink the tea.

[Yaab]

...any defeatists will be wuhanised.

[Footslogger]

Which handshake have you been using?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l2-Yui6PdWI

[Yaab]

The Merkel's ominous semi-Heil greeting.

[USSAmerica]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

We posted and discussed the article about the Stanford Noble laureate scientist a couple of days ago, though this thread is so long now that it's basically impossible to keep up.

Hey, we've got our two resident medical experts contributing now, plus our in-house granularity/stats/demographics guru. The quality of information in here is exponentially better than what's available to the general public, IMO.

Agreed!

[Ian R]

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

ORIGINAL: Ian R

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy



The cruise ship passengers might be easiest to trace, but airlines would have brought the virus into every city with an international airport already.

Canada's first cases were all airline travel related. Now we are seeing a surge because our "snowbirds" are returning from vacations and lengthy stays in other countries (up to 5.5 months) to avoid our winter. Many are arriving by car from the US - they are allowed to cross the border to return home.

Over a million have returned in the last two weeks and all are expected to self-isolate on arrival at home. But greater testing and greater awareness of symptoms has resulted in a spike of positive tests, mostly from these snowbirds. So if they got the virus in the US or some other country, the cases there are being exported! [8|] Much of the timing of these people returning is driven by the assurance of health care here vs. the fear that other countries health care systems reaching or exceeding capacity.

BB, I remain skeptical about the reported figures on covid-19.

First, I think way more people have had it than have tested positive. For all we know it could be 3-4 times the number.

Secondly, as a corollary the serious illness/death rate is being overstated, and is a much lower percentage, and in absolute terms, the flu is concurrently causing more deaths.

Thirdly, the vast majority of the hundreds and thousands of people world wide who have/had it and aren't counted, had no symptoms, or symptoms so mild that they didn't even notice it.

The current mass lock-downs are very arguably an over-reaction - and are causing economic damage that is unnecessary.

How are you working out the flu comparisons?

At the risk of comparing apples with oranges I'm going to treat Hubei (58m) Italy (61m), Spain (47m) and the UK (67m) as roughly analogous in terms of population and healthcare provision.

From the 2014 to 2019 winter flu seasons the UK had on average 17000 deaths a year from flu. That works out as 46/day. If we assume that the flu season is restricted to 4 winter months you get to 140/day. The death rate in Hubei reached that point in less than a month before their lockdown arrested the rise. If we are positive and say that Italy is at the top of their curve they are running at c600 deaths daily. Spain still seems to be on an upward trend and is at c500 deaths daily.

The WHO figures for flu deaths per annum is about 390,000 world wide. I have seen other estimates as high as 600,000. C19 has a long way to go to get to that level.

This quote is from the Levitt paper:

By contrast, the flu has sickened 36 million Americans since September and killed an estimated 22,000, according to the CDC, but those deaths are largely unreported.

[Ian R]

Interesting sounding article in the LA times, but unfortunately behind a paywall, if anyone has access could they post a short summary.

What is really needed is a test that tells you if you already had it and recovered without even noticing.

[MakeeLearn]

China’s first locked-down province of Hubei, where coronavirus originated, to reopen on March 25

https://www.rt.com/news/483909-china-to ... -lockdown/


" Beijing is lifting travel restrictions on Hubei Province on Wednesday, as China’s fight against Covid-19 is yielding positive results. Even constraints on the city of Wuhan, where the virus first emerged, will be lifted in April.

Residents will once again be allowed to travel in and out of the country’s central Hubei Province starting from March 25, the regional health commission announced on Tuesday. Travel bans in the region’s capital, Wuhan, where the coronavirus outbreak started, will be lifted on April 8."

[ITAKLinus]

Today's data

-infected: 3,491
-cured: 1.036
-dead: 683