OT: Corona virus

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Ian R

Interesting sounding article in the LA times, but unfortunately behind a paywall, if anyone has access could they post a short summary.

What is really needed is a test that tells you if you already had it and recovered without even noticing.

The UK just bought 3.5 million of those. Anti-body tests. They're going to try to start the testing by the end of the week, according to the Health minister.

The whole idea is trying to see who has had to let those NHS workers and other frontline personnel deal with the most difficult areas, where they're at risk. The larger goal is to see how much herd-immunity has been achieved as there are now some odd outlying studies (like he one I linked from Oxford yesterday) that buck the trend of saying this is just beginning. Some think it's been moving around for a good while undetected as it was among young healthy populations.

EDIT: just listened to the live press conference on this. First go to NHS and critical workers. Then probably other priority personnel. Eventually it'll run out to the public and then will become part of a study to determine how many have had it.

Also said trying to ramp up basic testing still. At 97k as of now.

[Canoerebel]

ITAK, can you double-check those numbers? Worldometers is reporting the 683 dead, but 5,210 new cases (not 3,491).

ORIGINAL: ITAKLinus

Today's data

-infected: 3,491
-cured: 1.036
-dead: 683

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Ian R

The WHO figures for flu deaths per annum is about 390,000 world wide. I have seen other estimates as high as 600,000. C19 has a long way to go to get to that level.

Some unknown pages back I posted a link to a study which looked at years in the early-mid 2000's. They concluded agreement with other studies which looked at later periods, and gave their average as 389,000 worldwide while noting other years as you mentioned, plus others about 200,000.

It seems there is lots of agreement that 390k figure is reliable to use as an average.

[RangerJoe]

Spanish Military Finds Dead Bodies And Seniors 'Completely Abandoned' In Care Homes

The Spanish military has found older residents of some care homes "completely abandoned" and even "dead in their beds," Defense Minister Margarita Robles said in a television interview on Monday.
.
.
.
Speaking in a television interview, Robles said staff in some centers had left the nursing homes after cases of COVID-19 were detected. Residents were abandoned to take care of themselves, even though some were sick and in serious condition.

The defense minister said the government will take action against those responsible. "We will be completely relentless and forceful with the kind of treatment elderly residents receive in these centers," Robles said. "I know that a vast majority [of centers] are fulfilling their obligations."

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... iveupdates

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

ORIGINAL: obvert




Not sure if you read the article, but in addition to these very valid points, they're essentially not counting possible cases as Covid, not testing much at all, telling people who have symptoms to stay home, and only those with severe pneumonia are getting the very good and aggressive treatments.

So it's some of all of that, but they'e still partying. The Japanese and British have something in common; they lighten up and ease their formality after a pints/bottles of sake. I think there are a lot of cases there now, and the Japanese don't want anyone, including their populace, to know that.

Don't try the Japanese approach in the UK. Not sure British seniors are as healthy. [:)]

Strangely enough, this was very much like the original government plan. Let it run through the population and get "herd immunity" earlier. They quickly realised hospitalisations were much more prevalent than they'd predicted, especially for younger people infected. Which is what makes me wonder about the Japanese. It's not the old so much as the younger, those 2-050, who should still be having to go to the hospital for 5-10% of cases.

It's bushido. Not getting enough oxygen? Just take it like a man.

[ITAKLinus]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

ITAK, can you double-check those numbers? Worldometers is reporting the 683 dead, but 5,210 new cases (not 3,491).

ORIGINAL: ITAKLinus

Today's data

-infected: 3,491
-cured: 1.036
-dead: 683

I use data diffused everyday at 1800 by Protezione Civile, the state's entity managing the emergency. I do not know where worldometers takes its data, but I strongly believe that the ones given by Protezione Civile are the correct ones.

I think also Kull had the same problem of worldometer giving other data for yesterday.


Given the situation, I suppose Protezione Civile's data are for sure more accurate than the ones given by anyone else.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

We posted and discussed the article about the Stanford Noble laureate scientist a couple of days ago, though this thread is so long now that it's basically impossible to keep up.

Hey, we've got our two resident medical experts contributing now, plus our in-house granularity/stats/demographics guru. The quality of information in here is exponentially better than what's available to the general public, IMO.

Technically, the information we can source here is also available to the general public.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: Ian R

The WHO figures for flu deaths per annum is about 390,000 world wide. I have seen other estimates as high as 600,000. C19 has a long way to go to get to that level.

Some unknown pages back I posted a link to a study which looked at years in the early-mid 2000's. They concluded agreement with other studies which looked at later periods, and gave their average as 389,000 worldwide while noting other years as you mentioned, plus others about 200,000.

It seems there is lots of agreement that 390k figure is reliable to use as an average.

Yeah, it varies from year to year. The 2009 year was higher, some other years lower...

[Lokasenna]

Been wondering about this: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03 ... cases.html

On Monday, the city’s chief executive, Carrie Lam, announced a 14-day ban on nonresident visitors and asked bars to stop serving alcohol. The ban on visitors resulted Tuesday in a crush of arrivals, who will all be under 14-day quarantine orders.

The moves come as the number of cases in Hong Kong nears 400. Singapore, meanwhile, reported 54 new cases on Monday, its highest single-day total yet. The island, which did so well to stave off an early outbreak, has now seen 558 cases and its first two deaths, which were announced on Saturday.

...

In Taiwan, where cases remained in the double digits until mid-March, 20 new cases were added to the tally Tuesday, bringing the total to 215.

The second wave of outbreaks is being blamed largely on people traveling from abroad. Taiwan says 158 of its 215 cases were imported, Hong Kong says most of its new cases are due to travelers, and of Singapore’s 558 cases, 326 are purportedly due to people coming from outside the country.

Basically, don't let up too soon. Better to keep things in place an extra week to make sure the lid is good and buttoned up, once we get there.

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Ian R

Interesting sounding article in the LA times, but unfortunately behind a paywall, if anyone has access could they post a short summary.

What is really needed is a test that tells you if you already had it and recovered without even noticing.

The UK just bought 3.5 million of those. Anti-body tests. They're going to try to start the testing by the end of the week, according to the Health minister.

The whole idea is trying to see who has had to let those NHS workers and other frontline personnel deal with the most difficult areas, where they're at risk. The larger goal is to see how much herd-immunity has been achieved as there are now some odd outlying studies (like he one I linked from Oxford yesterday) that buck the trend of saying this is just beginning. Some think it's been moving around for a good while undetected as it was among young healthy populations.

EDIT: just listened to the live press conference on this. First go to NHS and critical workers. Then probably other priority personnel. Eventually it'll run out to the public and then will become part of a study to determine how many have had it.

Also said trying to ramp up basic testing still. At 97k as of now.

I think you can deduce from the ramping up of cases in country after country it is just entering the population but a study to look at the prevalence of antibody levels would be very useful. It would tell you about subclinical cases, which are likely substantial.

For example, in the Seattle-area nursing home, it was discovered after the seniors began falling like flies that HALF THE STAFF were already infected and the great majority were still working.

Also, a single Connecticut birthday party gave rise to FIFTY infected individuals, with quite a few just having mild disease. Whoever made the bean dip should have washed their hands better.

[MakeeLearn]

Social Barometer:

Are the Californian Koreans on their rooftops?

[MakeeLearn]

Brazil's Bolsonaro again says Coronavirus concern overblown
March 24, 2020

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory ... n-69782788


"President Jair Bolsonaro on Tuesday stuck with his contention that concern about the new coronavirus is overblown, and accused Brazilian media of trying to stoke nationwide hysteria.

Bolsonaro said in a nationally televised address that the media had seized on the death toll in Italy, which he said is suffering so severely because of its elderly population and colder climate.

“The virus arrived, we are confronting it, and it will pass shortly. Our lives have to continue, jobs should be maintained,” the president said."

[MakeeLearn]

'DEVASTATING' First US child to ‘die from Coronavirus’ was only diagnosed after his death as he ‘did not meet COVID-19 test criteria’
Mar 25 2020

https://www.the-sun.com/news/585672/fir ... irus-test/


"THE FIRST US child to succumb to Coronavirus was only diagnosed with the deadly infection after he died as he did not “meet the criteria” for the test, the Sun has learned.

Lancaster, Los Angeles, Mayor Rex Parris said Wednesday that the teenager "did not meet the criteria for public health to OK a test and the only time he was tested was after he died.""


"He then went to Antelope Valley Hospital which is where he ultimately died of septic shock, before he was diagnosed with Coronavirus post-mortem."

[traskott]

Olders one are going to die by droves, guys. Period. No enough medical staff to support the massive arrival of infected people, and medics and doctors ( and policemans ) are getting infected at a very high rate.

[Kull]

ORIGINAL: ITAKLinus

I use data diffused everyday at 1800 by Protezione Civile, the state's entity managing the emergency. I do not know where worldometers takes its data, but I strongly believe that the ones given by Protezione Civile are the correct ones.

I think also Kull had the same problem of worldometer giving other data for yesterday.


Given the situation, I suppose Protezione Civile's data are for sure more accurate than the ones given by anyone else.

Worldometers has the same source you do. The problem is the way Protezione Civil has been defining "new cases", which is different from the WHO standard followed by every other country in the world:

5210 new cases and 683 new deaths in Italy. 4th day in a row with daily new cases below the 6557 peak reached on March 21. Protezione Civile chief Borrelli, the person usually holding the daily press conference, is at home with a fever, while the former chief Bertolaso is now hospitalized in Milan after having tested positive to the virus

During the press conference, Protezione Civile officials were asked to clarify what the "change in active cases" ("incremento delle persone attualmente positive") really represents, after our website had raised the issue of Italian media reporting the change in active cases (a lower number) rather than the change in total cases (a higher number), incorrectly representing it as "newly infected" when, in fact, it represents the "change in active cases"

Newly infected, meaning the number of people who have tested positive to the virus in the last day, corresponds to the number Worldometer has always reported, which is the change in total cases in accordance with the international standards set by the WHO and followed by all countries. An important figure which can be compared to newly recovered, as we do in our charts.

The change in active cases (what most Italian media incorrectly label as "newly infected") is the result of the following formula: (newly infected) - (new deaths) - (new recoveries).

Sharing the goal of providing the correct interpretation of data, we are pleased to notice that a few days ago, one of the leading Italian newspapers, Corriere della Sera, began reporting the figures correctly

To repeat, "New Cases" is most definitely NOT determined by this formula: New Cases = (newly infected) - (new deaths) - (new recoveries)

[alanschu]

EDIT: LMAO make sure to refresh before responding to something lest the post immediately above yours from hours ago say the exact same thing!

[Canoerebel]

It's encouraging to see the "flattening of the curve" for new cases in Italy. Today's number, which isn't shown on this chart, is essentially the same as yesterday's. A good trend now.**

**assuming the reporting is accurate

[Cap Mandrake]

30 days to reach a maximum. Ouch..that is painful.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Ian R

Interesting sounding article in the LA times, but unfortunately behind a paywall, if anyone has access could they post a short summary.

What is really needed is a test that tells you if you already had it and recovered without even noticing.

The UK just bought 3.5 million of those. Anti-body tests. They're going to try to start the testing by the end of the week, according to the Health minister.

The whole idea is trying to see who has had to let those NHS workers and other frontline personnel deal with the most difficult areas, where they're at risk. The larger goal is to see how much herd-immunity has been achieved as there are now some odd outlying studies (like he one I linked from Oxford yesterday) that buck the trend of saying this is just beginning. Some think it's been moving around for a good while undetected as it was among young healthy populations.

EDIT: just listened to the live press conference on this. First go to NHS and critical workers. Then probably other priority personnel. Eventually it'll run out to the public and then will become part of a study to determine how many have had it.

Also said trying to ramp up basic testing still. At 97k as of now.

I think you can deduce from the ramping up of cases in country after country it is just entering the population but a study to look at the prevalence of antibody levels would be very useful. It would tell you about subclinical cases, which are likely substantial.

For example, in the Seattle-area nursing home, it was discovered after the seniors began falling like flies that HALF THE STAFF were already infected and the great majority were still working.

Also, a single Connecticut birthday party gave rise to FIFTY infected individuals, with quite a few just having mild disease. Whoever made the bean dip should have washed their hands better.

I dunno, Cap. In an endemic virus pattern, serology is only good for decisions at the moment the sample is pulled from your arm. At any point after that (including a presumptive delay while it's tested) a "negative" person can become exposed, rendering the sample invalid for predictive or treatment value prospectively. And what surety that a seropositive person is 'subclinical' versus 'resolved and no longer infectious'? Still too many questions about the predictive value of seropositivity, let alone its value in subjecting people to additional scrutiny.

I read Rick Atkinson's wonderful, "The British are Coming" last year-an excellent review the first couple years of the Revolutionary War. When the siege of Boston was broken, Washington's first troops to enter the city were handpicked smallpox survivors. The colonists were concerned that the Brits had pox-trapped the city, so the logical front-line troops were those that had endured the ravages of smallpox. Their scars (and presumptive protection from the disease) made them highly prized for this role.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

ORIGINAL: obvert



The UK just bought 3.5 million of those. Anti-body tests. They're going to try to start the testing by the end of the week, according to the Health minister.

The whole idea is trying to see who has had to let those NHS workers and other frontline personnel deal with the most difficult areas, where they're at risk. The larger goal is to see how much herd-immunity has been achieved as there are now some odd outlying studies (like he one I linked from Oxford yesterday) that buck the trend of saying this is just beginning. Some think it's been moving around for a good while undetected as it was among young healthy populations.

EDIT: just listened to the live press conference on this. First go to NHS and critical workers. Then probably other priority personnel. Eventually it'll run out to the public and then will become part of a study to determine how many have had it.

Also said trying to ramp up basic testing still. At 97k as of now.

I think you can deduce from the ramping up of cases in country after country it is just entering the population but a study to look at the prevalence of antibody levels would be very useful. It would tell you about subclinical cases, which are likely substantial.

For example, in the Seattle-area nursing home, it was discovered after the seniors began falling like flies that HALF THE STAFF were already infected and the great majority were still working.

Also, a single Connecticut birthday party gave rise to FIFTY infected individuals, with quite a few just having mild disease. Whoever made the bean dip should have washed their hands better.

I dunno, Cap. In an endemic virus pattern, serology is only good for decisions at the moment the sample is pulled from your arm. At any point after that (including a presumptive delay while it's tested) a "negative" person can become exposed, rendering the sample invalid for predictive or treatment value prospectively. And what surety that a seropositive person is 'subclinical' versus 'resolved and no longer infectious'? Still too many questions about the predictive value of seropositivity, let alone its value in subjecting people to additional scrutiny.

I read Rick Atkinson's wonderful, "The British are Coming" last year-an excellent review the first couple years of the Revolutionary War. When the siege of Boston was broken, Washington's first troops to enter the city were handpicked smallpox survivors. The colonists were concerned that the Brits had pox-trapped the city, so the logical front-line troops were those that had endured the ravages of smallpox. Their scars (and presumptive protection from the disease) made them highly prized for this role.

From what I read (I no longer have the book but it covered the year 1776) smallpox had been going around in Boston during the siege.