OT: Corona virus

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Uncivil Engineer

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

South Korea and the Untied States found their first case on the same day. We are lagging and yet Japan and South Korea are winning their containment fight. If only we had done something with the last 3 weeks in February yet we did little. If only we had not cut the CDC office in China by 75% ......if only......but we didn't. We lost our containment fight. Other are winning their so I suspect there are things others did better than us. You can point all the finders you want at any country you want and science just laughs in your face. This is all over the world

But how much worse would it be if air travel from China had not been stopped on Jan 31?

By then, the virus was already transferred to numerous countries and hopping to the US from all over the world. Stopping travel from China was an obvious step, but not sufficient. Health screening of every passenger at every airport (per Singapore) would have helped more. Even that would not be totally effective because there is a time lag of about 5 days between contracting the virus and having elevated body temp. But it would have caught more cases sooner and brought on stronger distancing/sanitation steps sooner.

[Chickenboy]

Interesting take about the diversity of that area, John. But I'd leave room for optimistic outcomes for non-NYC areas here too. It may very well be that the unique diversity and intermingling you see in the daily life there isn't reflected elsewhere.

Having lived in / visited most other big metro areas in this country, I think that NYC is indeed unique. There's not so much intermingling anywhere else I can think of. Lost Angels is suburban sprawl. Same with Houston. Chicago is a hybrid between that and NYC. And the warmer climate in Atlanta, Miami, Houston, Dallas, San Antonio and SoCal may be at least partially protective.

So I'm not convinced that everybody else in CONUS will 'get theirs' eventually. I think there's room for geographical regionalization (ala Italy) in how this virus gets spread around / dealt with and who gets it. I think there may be some lessons drawn from that at the end of the day too. We'll see.

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I wonder how the outbreaks in other areas outside NYC will play out. You'd think it would be similar, but other countries have had regional hot spots. How important will population density, early onset of countermeasures, climate and other factors affect other areas? Or will it turn out that pretty much all will be affected, sort of like Angela Merkel's "70% of Germans" will get it (IIRC).

For instance, Florida has dense population clusters and an aging population but it's already hot and humid there.

What is there, an echo in here? Try to keep up with the conversation, man! [:'(]

[MakeeLearn]

It's a beautiful day. Kingfishers must be mating, noisy! Wind is up, good day to fly a kite. Went to the bank. They asked "How do you want this?" I replied "Anything but Grant." Drive-thrus are busy. LOL! I hope this miniseries is over soon.

What have I learned... I sure do LOVE touching my face!

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

I'm intrigued by the pattern of disease domestically. NYC and surrounds are still circa 60% of our national caseload. For an area of what-give or take-14 million people? So roughly 4.2% of our population has 60% of our national cases.

Case counts in the other big cities: Chicago, Los Angeles, Houston haven't moved nearly that much.

Locally, San Antonio area has less than 100 cases. I can't keep up with individual cases as much these days, but the vast majority of them until recently have been travel-related. Limited community spread. Houston, TX (soon to become the country's third most populous metropolitan area for all you home demographers out there) has a similarly small number. If the trend holds, I'd ask what is different about these urban centers than New York City per se. I have some ideas, but I'd like for the locals to put in their two bits about why they think New York City's metropolitan area is such a hotbed of disease compared to some other really big metro areas in this country.

I think there's more evidence to suggest that there's "New York City and then there's everywhere else in the US." Which may be an encouraging prospect-for everyone not in New York City that is.

All of the major metropolitan areas in this state have been proactive in shutting things down. Most Texas schools were on Spring break the first week in March (typically a week before most of the rest of the country). Many school districts (including my kids') slapped on an extension onto that time during the break. At first, it was until March 20. Then that was extended to April 6. Now it's April 24. So as far as our schools are concerned-we've been in de facto 'lockdown' for 20 days as of today. That will continue another 29 days at a minimum.

Statewide and county/city lockdown mandates have come through in the interim. These 'essential worker only' mandates are in effect at least through April 9 here in San Antonio.

Did New York City serve as an immediate warning for us here in Texas? Or were we watching Italy's agony and extrapolating that back here?

Does this buttress the argument that the United States-with its disparate people and regions-really doesn't operate on a 'one size fits all' national mandate?

Things that might be more prevalent in NYC than other US cities:
- higher % of people using the subway or other public transit
- temperature and humidity combo that is ideal for the virus (vs the cold in Chicago or the heat/dryness of Phoenix for example)
- high population of Italian people? (if there is any truth to the theories that racial factors might influence susceptibility or resistance)
- more high-rise buildings = more elevators whose buttons get pushed by all manner of fingers

No doubt some college student will do a master's paper on this kind of granular detail.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

The US Congress acted very early in the process.

They sold their stock portfolios.

True, but some also bought stock in certain other companies! Seems their blind trusts could hear and smell what was coming.

[ITAKLinus]

Some nasty spillovers are emerging, eventually.

The average deaths in the last years in Bergamo have been 98 between 01/03 and 24/03.

Total amount of deaths among residents has been 446.

Total amount of deaths due Cov-19: 136.

There are 212 deaths more than the average, then.

[JohnDillworth]

In all seriousness I think America has one big advantage other socialites do not. We are, at heart and in practice, a car culture. Less public transportation and more car travel will help. It may significantly help.

[JohnDillworth]

[/quote]

high population of Italian people?

I'm making a huge generalization but the Italians, Germans and Irish that were the big immigrant waves have mostly moved to the suburbs. Long Island and New Jersey have been the big recipients. Pro tip, it you get to NYC skip Little Italy in Manhattan. It's just a Hollywood set for the tourists. Arthur Avenue in the Bronx is still the real deal but even that is shrinking. In general, all over NYC, watch where the FDNY truck is parked and eat where they eat. They are the experts

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

I find the 'relative size' national problem to be interesting as well. By sorting on the number of cases per million population, a different picture emerges. One can brush aside Vatican City here, but size-wise Switzerland, Iceland and Luxembourg are having a greater national challenge than Italy, Spain or Germany. The Swiss leading the charge in terms percentage of their population affected with this thing? Really? Counter-intuitive perhaps. But it might explain the northern / cooler climate argument=worst hit if one filters out the larger 'noise' of the raw case numbers of other larger countries.

I think it has more to do with ski resorts being a cross contamination nightmare in the beginning. A lot of cross pollination between Italian, Swiss and French areas in the Alps, very close to the initial Italian outbreak. How many people from Bergamo who went to the Atalanta v Valencia football match in Milan also went skiing the next weekend? Probably a lot.

[MakeeLearn]

New York mayor Bill de Blasio warns half of all New Yorkers will get Coronavirus
March 26, 2020
https://www.foxnews.com/us/de-blasio-wa ... avirus.amp

"Over 4 million New Yorkers — or 50 percent of the city’s population — will get the coronavirus, Mayor de Blasio warned Wednesday.

“It’s a fair bet to say that half of all New Yorkers and maybe more than half will end up contracting this disease,” de Blasio said at a City Hall press briefing about the outbreak as the Big Apple’s positive cases approached 18,000 with nearly 200 deaths."

[Canoerebel]

I noticed that that. I swear I was typing while you were - no cross pollination. [8D]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Interesting take about the diversity of that area, John. But I'd leave room for optimistic outcomes for non-NYC areas here too. It may very well be that the unique diversity and intermingling you see in the daily life there isn't reflected elsewhere.

Having lived in / visited most other big metro areas in this country, I think that NYC is indeed unique. There's not so much intermingling anywhere else I can think of. Lost Angels is suburban sprawl. Same with Houston. Chicago is a hybrid between that and NYC. And the warmer climate in Atlanta, Miami, Houston, Dallas, San Antonio and SoCal may be at least partially protective.

So I'm not convinced that everybody else in CONUS will 'get theirs' eventually. I think there's room for geographical regionalization (ala Italy) in how this virus gets spread around / dealt with and who gets it. I think there may be some lessons drawn from that at the end of the day too. We'll see.

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I wonder how the outbreaks in other areas outside NYC will play out. You'd think it would be similar, but other countries have had regional hot spots. How important will population density, early onset of countermeasures, climate and other factors affect other areas? Or will it turn out that pretty much all will be affected, sort of like Angela Merkel's "70% of Germans" will get it (IIRC).

For instance, Florida has dense population clusters and an aging population but it's already hot and humid there.

What is there, an echo in here? Try to keep up with the conversation, man! [:'(]

[BBfanboy]

obvert: Dyson is building 10k ventilators and is only awaiting approval of their finished design now to go into production.

I hope someone told them it needs to blow, not suck. [8|]

[geofflambert]

Yesterday late to just now. Spain and the Netherlands are taking it on the chin. NYC holding steady. That could just be some data hasn't been entered yet for NYC.

[obvert]

Ok. Some very promising reporting here about the virus mutation rate. Paywall so no link but read it if you can. There is a little piece attached to this twitter pic.

A vaccine that might stick in it's effectiveness over the years would be fantastic news!![&o]

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: ITAKLinus

Some nasty spillovers are emerging, eventually.

The average deaths in the last years in Bergamo have been 98 between 01/03 and 24/03.

Total amount of deaths among residents has been 446.

Total amount of deaths due Cov-19: 136.

There are 212 deaths more than the average, then.

Is that 212 number because hospital critical care could not take in the critical non-Covid-19 patients because of lack of capacity?

[Canoerebel]

According to Worldometers, New York State is reporting 19 deaths so far today.**

**Not only are there fluctuations in reporting by locality, state, country, etc., I get the feeling that there are fluctuations in updating by Worldometers, Johns Hopkins, etc. Might even be something like data entry personnel taking a lunch break, etc.

[JohnDillworth]

Dan, In NY our hospitals are already at capacity and in the next few days will be overwhelmed. This is true of NYC and is true of many parts of the state. My town alone (probably bigger than your idea of a town) has over 500 cases. I live in a village in the town but I know we have cases. We only have the one hospital and it is slammed. The Governor told us the morning that the hospitals will be overwhelmed in he next few days. Our Governor has been sober and reassuring, but also bluntly honest.

BTW, Governor Cuomo is relying on one of the best medical minds in the country. Michael Dowling. Mr Dowling was Mario Cuomos Health Commissioner and is the CEO of Northshore Hospital systems. He is also my neighbor and his daughter and mine are best friends since 1st grade. Mr Dowling is old school Irish. Blindingly intelligent, frank, blunt and honest. Mr Dowling will be featured on 60 minutes this Sunday. If you can get near a TV I promise you there will be much wisdom to be gained

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn


It's a beautiful day. Kingfishers must be mating, noisy! Wind is up, good day to fly a kite. Went to the bank. They asked "How do you want this?" I replied "Anything but Grant." Drive-thrus are busy. LOL! I hope this miniseries is over soon.

What have I learned... I sure do LOVE touching my face!

"Anything but Grant" [:D]

[MakeeLearn]

https://www.northwell.edu/news/insights ... oronavirus

"While there is no vaccine yet for coronavirus and we are continuing to learn more about how it is contracted and spread, the illness is relatively tame compared to other infectious disease like Ebola and not nearly as widespread as the flu, which has already killed 23,000 Americans this season.Unless you suffer from a pre-existing respiratory issue, are immune-compromised or are elderly and in poor health, you should be safe. Some people may not even realize they have COVID-19 because symptoms are so minimal."

Michael Dowling is president and CEO of Northwell Health, New York’s largest health care provider and private employer.

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn


It's a beautiful day. Kingfishers must be mating, noisy! Wind is up, good day to fly a kite. Went to the bank. They asked "How do you want this?" I replied "Anything but Grant." Drive-thrus are busy. LOL! I hope this miniseries is over soon.

What have I learned... I sure do LOVE touching my face!

"Anything but Grant" [:D]

I had them all laughing.[:D]