OT: Corona virus

[MakeeLearn]

I made a small sacrifice today. I wanted to go look at Case knifes. I want a blue one. The local seller is the Drugstore[:(]. Thinking of those that I have to be around at work, I did not stop.

[rader]

Well, he sits next to me at work but he was out most of last week and I can't recall talking much to him when he was there. I think in passing a few times, but he was probably asymptomatic at the time. Definitely didn't shake hands or anything. But I do recall eating some chocolate he brought back from Spain, so that's probably it. The old poisoned chocolate trick!

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: rader

I had contact with a confirmed positive last week who came back from Spain and this week I have had a bit of a fever and mild respiratory symptoms (shortness of breath).

I've been in isolation for all this week, since I found out about the exposure. Had a video appointment with a medical service and they think I probably have it but they aren't testing people like me - just telling us to self-isolate. It's definitely a very mild case (so far). I'm pretty young (40) and in good health so I'm not very worried, but it does make me think there must be a lot of cases out there that we're not including in the statistics. I had another friend too who also had all the symptoms, self-isolated, but couldn't get a test.

Get better soon, rader!

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: rader

Well, he sits next to me at work but he was out most of last week and I can't recall talking much to him when he was there. I think in passing a few times, but he was probably asymptomatic at the time. Definitely didn't shake hands or anything. But I do recall eating some chocolate he brought back from Spain, so that's probably it. The old poisoned chocolate trick!

At least it was not made with Ex-Lax.

Be safe and I hope that you get better soon.

[Q-Ball]

Looks like US will be #1 in total cases by tomorrow morning; as of right now, just a little behind Italy and China, but we are growing much faster.

[Canoerebel]

Hey, rader, best of luck with this.

I think MacLean posted here a week or ten days ago about the possibility he had been exposed. He hasn't posted an update in awhile, to my knowledge.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: rader

Well, he sits next to me at work but he was out most of last week and I can't recall talking much to him when he was there. I think in passing a few times, but he was probably asymptomatic at the time. Definitely didn't shake hands or anything. But I do recall eating some chocolate he brought back from Spain, so that's probably it. The old poisoned chocolate trick!

Right. The poisoned chocolate trick!

Damn.

[Cap Mandrake]

Something else to worry about. Hypertension seems to be a risk factor for more severe Covid-19 disease. Covid seems to selectively bind to the ACE-2 enzyme as a means of cell entry. This enzyme is strongly induced (rises in numbers) with treatment with the two most effective and widely used anti-hypertensives (ACE inhibitors and ARB's (Angiotensin Receptor Blockers))

This is a biological curiosity but it is a real risk? It's a BIG deal because hundreds of millions of people take them and they clearly save lives.American College of Cardiology advises doctors NOT to stop the meds. It seems we need another study pronto and this would have to be sizable to detect a difference

https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinic ... ps-need-to

[USSAmerica]

ORIGINAL: rader

I had contact with a confirmed positive last week who came back from Spain and this week I have had a bit of a fever and mild respiratory symptoms (shortness of breath).

I've been in isolation for all this week, since I found out about the exposure. Had a video appointment with a medical service and they think I probably have it but they aren't testing people like me - just telling us to self-isolate. It's definitely a very mild case (so far). I'm pretty young (40) and in good health so I'm not very worried, but it does make me think there must be a lot of cases out there that we're not including in the statistics. I had another friend too who also had all the symptoms, self-isolated, but couldn't get a test.

This, exactly! Rader, you will be one of millions of cases that will never be counted or included in any reported totals.

[USSAmerica]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: ITAKLinus

Some nasty spillovers are emerging, eventually.

The average deaths in the last years in Bergamo have been 98 between 01/03 and 24/03.

Total amount of deaths among residents has been 446.

Total amount of deaths due Cov-19: 136.

There are 212 deaths more than the average, then.

Is that 212 number because hospital critical care could not take in the critical non-Covid-19 patients because of lack of capacity?

Think what typically happens if someone is at home and has heart pains. They call 911, an ambulance arrives within a reasonable amount of time, they are treated on the spot and transported to a hospital ER, likely to an ICU bed, maybe they survive. Quite possibly where good medical care is available nearby.

Now, what happens in NYC in a day or two, or Northern Italy today. A person has heart pains, they call 911 or the equivalent in Italy, the ambulance is maybe able to get to them in 45 minutes to an hour. Maybe they are still alive and they get treatment and transport to a hospital ER. That ER is packed to the ceiling, with people on gurneys in the hallways. There are no open ICU beds and no available doctors or equipment to treat them in the first minute they arrive. What happens? That person dies when they might now under normal circumstances.

Now, picture auto accidents, falling down stairs, appendicitis, etc. People who are not sick with COVID-19 will die because so many are sick with it.

That 212 number probably also includes some deaths that were not counted as COVID-19 related but actually were.

[USSAmerica]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

Looks like US will be #1 in total cases by tomorrow morning; as of right now, just a little behind Italy and China, but we are growing much faster.

Already there as of 6:00 pm, eastern. [:(]

[USSAmerica]

ORIGINAL: rader

Well, he sits next to me at work but he was out most of last week and I can't recall talking much to him when he was there. I think in passing a few times, but he was probably asymptomatic at the time. Definitely didn't shake hands or anything. But I do recall eating some chocolate he brought back from Spain, so that's probably it. The old poisoned chocolate trick!

Hope you get better quickly, rader!

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: USSAmerica

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

Looks like US will be #1 in total cases by tomorrow morning; as of right now, just a little behind Italy and China, but we are growing much faster.

Already there as of 6:00 pm, eastern. [:(]

It shouldn't be a surprise that, as our diagnostic testing capabilities get rolling in earnest, our positive case count climbs. We *could* be like Russia (and Japan) and neither test nor report, but I'd really feel better with achieving 'ground truth' as soon as possible.

Like stock markets-the uncertainty is the worst part. I'd much rather have 'bad news' (higher case counts via testing) than uncertainty.

Does anybody here with strong Google-fu have access to the denominator of the equation? Numerator= number of cases positive. Denominator= number of (approved) tests conducted overall.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: USSAmerica

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

Looks like US will be #1 in total cases by tomorrow morning; as of right now, just a little behind Italy and China, but we are growing much faster.

Already there as of 6:00 pm, eastern. [:(]

It shouldn't be a surprise that, as our diagnostic testing capabilities get rolling in earnest, our positive case count climbs. We *could* be like Russia (and Japan) and neither test nor report, but I'd really feel better with achieving 'ground truth' as soon as possible.

Like stock markets-the uncertainty is the worst part. I'd much rather have 'bad news' (higher case counts via testing) than uncertainty.

Does anybody here with strong Google-fu have access to the denominator of the equation? Numerator= number of cases positive. Denominator= number of (approved) tests conducted overall.

There are two denominator numbers - the number of field samples taken and the number of lab results from testing the swab sample. Governments seem to have been announcing the former sampling as the test, and not being transparent on the lab result numbers. Could be intentional or they are just not set up to gather numbers from all the labs doing the testing of samples.

[BBfanboy]

A boneheaded stunt in the news: A woman in Philadelphia (I think that was the city) purposely sneezed over a cooler section of produce in a grocery store. Ha ha! [8|]
The store has to throw out $35K worth of fresh produce to ensure they will not be held liable if someone gets sick after visiting the store. The woman was turned over to police. Not sure what charges might ensue but the store should be able to sue for damages.
Lets hope stupidity is not so contagious!

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: USSAmerica




Already there as of 6:00 pm, eastern. [:(]

It shouldn't be a surprise that, as our diagnostic testing capabilities get rolling in earnest, our positive case count climbs. We *could* be like Russia (and Japan) and neither test nor report, but I'd really feel better with achieving 'ground truth' as soon as possible.

Like stock markets-the uncertainty is the worst part. I'd much rather have 'bad news' (higher case counts via testing) than uncertainty.

Does anybody here with strong Google-fu have access to the denominator of the equation? Numerator= number of cases positive. Denominator= number of (approved) tests conducted overall.

There are two denominator numbers - the number of field samples taken and the number of lab results from testing the swab sample. Governments seem to have been announcing the former sampling as the test, and not being transparent on the lab result numbers. Could be intentional or they are just not set up to gather numbers from all the labs doing the testing of samples.

I would assume that all of the former eventually become the latter, but I'd be interested in either denominator frankly.

I read a blurb on CNBC that New York City's "attack rate" was 5x the national average elsewhere: 28% of specimens positive from NY/NJ versus 8% national average:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/23/new-yor ... -says.html

So someone is tracking raw numbers as a percentage (numerator and denominator) somewhere. But haven't found a site that has that. Then again, my Google-fu is weak compared to most others here. Help me MakeeLearn, you're my only hope!

[MakeeLearn]

denominator of the equation? Numerator= number of cases positive. Denominator= number of (approved) tests conducted overall.

There are two denominator numbers - the number of field samples taken and the number of lab results from testing the swab sample. Governments seem to have been announcing the former sampling as the test, and not being transparent on the lab result numbers.

Looking around, lots of other people are wanting to know those numbers.


They may be buried in this page:

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus- ... ource-data

"Unfortunately there is no centralized WHO data on COVID-19 testing and most countries do not provide official reports on tests performed. This is different from official records on confirmed cases and deaths, which we report in our article here."

[Sammy5IsAlive]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: USSAmerica

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

Looks like US will be #1 in total cases by tomorrow morning; as of right now, just a little behind Italy and China, but we are growing much faster.

Already there as of 6:00 pm, eastern. [:(]

It shouldn't be a surprise that, as our diagnostic testing capabilities get rolling in earnest, our positive case count climbs. We *could* be like Russia (and Japan) and neither test nor report, but I'd really feel better with achieving 'ground truth' as soon as possible.

Like stock markets-the uncertainty is the worst part. I'd much rather have 'bad news' (higher case counts via testing) than uncertainty.

Does anybody here with strong Google-fu have access to the denominator of the equation? Numerator= number of cases positive. Denominator= number of (approved) tests conducted overall.

I don't think there is anything complicated behind the rapid increase of cases in the US. The USA covers pretty much the same land mass as Europe. Europe's land mass is split between c.50 (depending on which countries you count) different nations.

As things are being reported at the moment, Italy; Spain; Germany; France and the UK are reported separately. If you transplanted them onto a map of the US they would all fit within your single country. The total cases of those five countries is c224,000.

That said, on the last chart I saw of case increases by region (i.e. showing Lombardy, Madrid, Hubei etc) New York's trend was looking the worst of anywhere. I think it could get very bad, very fast there. More positively Washington and maybe California were looking as if they may have 'flattened the curve'. Will try and find the chart and post it.

Edit - this is the chart I was talking about - I don't know how to embed it so if somebody sends me a PM with instructions I'll edit the post show it shows properly. Even more worryingly for NY it is showing deaths and not cases. In case anyone is wondering Catalonia is essentially Barcalona and Ile-De-France is essentially Paris.

https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/im ... width=1260

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


Help me MakeeLearn, you're my only hope!

“These aren’t the chickens you’re looking for.”

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

A boneheaded stunt in the news: A woman in Philadelphia (I think that was the city) purposely sneezed over a cooler section of produce in a grocery store. Ha ha! [8|]
The store has to throw out $35K worth of fresh produce to ensure they will not be held liable if someone gets sick after visiting the store. The woman was turned over to police. Not sure what charges might ensue but the store should be able to sue for damages.
Lets hope stupidity is not so contagious!

There has been several people doing this type of stuff. Even in China.