OT: Corona virus

[obvert]

Meanwhile the now prolific testing program in the States is giving a much more clear picture that this is developing everywhere, and each state will soon have some of the problems NY is facing.

I've not been an optimist in this discussion, and yet I'm looking for good news anywhere I can find it right now. Anyone got any?

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth



This is the most catastrophic intelligence failure in the history of the United States. No way to sugar coat it. We should have seen this coming. We blew it

The governments and the organizations that they support that worked on the initial SARs virus should have continued their research including making a vaccine. That would be useful today and the original SARs could also come back.

As far as intelligence failure, that is on the part of China suppressing this instead of reporting this to the World Health Organization.

There was quite a bit of basic science done on the Coronaviridae since SARS. That's why we know so much about animal reservoirs of Coronavirus. A specific anti-SARS antiviral agent might well work on COVID but a vaccine (if there were one most likely would not). On the other hand, new vaccine approaches used to investigate a SARS vaccine ARE applicable.

The UN passed a resolution attaching sanctions and fines for failure to notify the WHO of an outbreak. The CCP is being sued by some NGO's over the current failure. Good luck collecting any money.[:)] There can't be a CDC monitor at every Chinese "wet market". There must be tens of thousands of them. The only authorities that can effectively monitor them are the Chicoms. If you ask me, China is no longer a 3rd world country, they should buy some damn meat refrigerators and disallow cultural practices where the buyer touches the room temperature meat to see if it "fresh". They might invest in some freaking Saran wrap too. And soap and water. After SARS, sale of Civet meat was banned but it still goes on. And now we have yummy Pangolin burgers too!

I would say we tell the Chinese they owe the world $10T (a serious underestimate) and if they don't pay up they can keep all the cheap Christmas lights.

From March 4, 2020:

Korean researchers have found antibodies that can fight against the COVID-19

"The Korea Chemical Research Institute’s CEVI (New Species Virus) Convergence Research Group announced on Monday that SARS and MERS neutralization antibodies, previously known, can be combined into COVID-19 Spike Protein.

Spike protein is a protein that coronavirus uses to break into cells. When an antigen is injected through a vaccine, the body forms antibodies according to the immune response, of which antibodies that can neutralize the pathogen are called neutral antibodies."

https://www.habkorea.net/korean-researc ... -covid-19/

March 05, 2020

Former SARS, MERS Vaccine Could Treat COVID-19 Patients

"Remdesivir is effective in treating Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), but also may be a successful vaccine for patients with coronavirus, or COVID-19, according to researchers at the University of Alberta.

“We know the drug works against different coronavirus, like MERS and SARS, and we know the novel coronavirus is very similar to SARS. So I would say I’m cautiously optimistic that the results our team found with remdesivir and MERS will be similar with COVID-19,” said Matthias Gotte, a virologist, in a statement "

https://pharmanewsintel.com/news/former ... 9-patients

[Canoerebel]

Obvert asked for good news. An admitted optimist (without credentials), I've seen a lot of good raw data and reports.

For instance, that UK university that revised its mortality estimate down for UK from something like 500k to 20k (IIRC).

And while the headlines blare disaster, estimates for the US are coming down. A University of Washington study has it at 80k, which is down from the 300 zillion we were seeing a few weeks ago.

Ditto reports that the virus would peak in the US "in the second week of April," which is considerably sooner than other estimates.

And the reports from many states are not particularly alarming. Quite a few of these saw community transmission at the same time as NY and others, yet growth has been fairly undramatic.

I support and agree with the taking of strong countermeasures, since there was a high element of unknown about this and cataclysmic predictions of disaster. It was good to err on the cautious side and most states and jurisdictions have acted fairly quickly.

Numbers are crazy things. A few weeks ago, I told my secretary that 20 people had died in China. She freaked out. Disaster! When, of course, I meant it as great news that the pandemic had tapered off there. I'm hearing similar reactions here, there, everywhere.

But the underlying numbers are still small in many countries, certainly in most states, and don't show the kinds of increases that would indicate apocalypse.

I think we get through this okay, at least here. John Dillworth expressed optimism for NYC yesterday, which was great to hear. If we do make it without disaster, then we buy the time needed to get to the bottom of things and handle it better next time it pops up.

Yeah, I'm optimistic.**

**While realizing that some countries, most certainly Italy, Spain, some others, are really hurting per capita and probably more than they would suffer from any kind of seasonal flu.

[witpqs]

An admitted optimist (without credentials)

By the power invested in me, I hereby appoint you Optimist Without Portfolio.

By God you've earned it. Keep it up.

[alanschu]

ORIGINAL: obvert

This is not looking good. The "other regions" to the centre and now the south of Italy are steadily gaining active cases. Meanwhile areas in the North continue to gain cases as well. The lockdown has to show in the numbers soon, right?

I did find this site to be really interesting because you could start to see that southern Italy was starting to get its influx of cases. Lombardy area *exploded* super fast and silver lining is that the south didn't have quite that explosion.

https://www.piersoft.it/covid19/index2. ... 085/10.063

[Canoerebel]

P.S. In my previous post, I described John D. as "optimistic." That's not quite the right word for his report yesterday - more like "determined that we can prevail."

[alanschu]

I'm curious if Germany was just really on the ball with early detections, as I'm starting to get concerned seeing their daily new deaths accelerate pretty quickly

[Canoerebel]

Below is an optimistic post from March 12. It includes a note that NY was experiencing a 2x growth every other day, with a hope that it might flatten out in "a month or so." That would be around April 12, which is what the news report yesterday predicted. On the way home from my canoeing trip today, a major broadcast radio news reported that NYC's growth rate was beginning to slow.

If we bear in mind the predictions that were floated two or three weeks back, we can see that things are better than predicted - sometimes much better.

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I can hope for a China/South Korea outcome because: (1) our healthcare system is likely the best in the world; (2) we had two months more notice than China had; (3) we began taking drastic measures much earlier in the "exponential" phase than China did [we're only about 10 days in, and we're already taking major steps and that will accelerate]; (4) we have the benefit of knowing what worked elsewhere and what didn't; (5) the warm season is arriving, and there's evidence the virus can't survive at above 86 degrees.

Even if we have something 13x China, we're still in the range of a normal flu season. 13x China? If we exceed that, I'd be shocked - but even then it be 1/375th of some of the wild-eyed projections that are being floated in here and by the media.

China's pandemic is now doubling at a rate of about once every 2.19 years. New York's once every two days is almost certainly going to flatten out, probably in a month or so.

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Dan, How can you expect a China/Korea outcome when we are not doing what China/Korea are doing? We are doing nothing of substance and you expect the curve to level off by cancelling sporting events and concerts? China/Korea are taking drastic actions and achieving acceptable results. We are doing nothing of the kind

The "exponential growth curve" in China lasted from about 1/24/2020 to about 3/1/2020. Five weeks.

Western Europe is probably two or three weeks into its own exponential curve. It may last longer than China's did. How much?

The USA/Western Hemisphere is about 10 days into its exponential curve. Will it experience a similar outcome to China, or not?

[JohnDillworth]

[/quote]

As far as intelligence failure, that is on the part of China suppressing this instead of reporting this to the World Health Organization.

I guess by that logic the Japanese should have told us about Pearl Harbor and Bin Ladin should have told us about 9/11. Intelligence agencies are supposed to find out the stuff the other countries don't want us to know. This was their job. To tell us what's REALLY going on in China. There was a systematic failure of the intelligence community to warn us about this. Whether it was a failure on the ground or a failure in reporting and interpretation remains to be seen but a massive failure it was. If they didn't see this coming what they hell do we need them for?

[JohnDillworth]

[/quote]

we can see that things are better than predicted - sometimes much better.

As I said yesterday and as the spreadsheet shows. It doubles every 3 days and has doubled every 3 days since March 8. It doubled in the last 3 days. It is on track to double in the next 3 days. It might be slowing down a tick because much of the underbrush has burned out in NYC but if it has the numbers don't show it. I expect we might see it slow a bit, but I'd sure like to see it. Italy also saw it slow for a couple of days but yesterday it was back at full flame. IF we continue to isolate we can slow it down but the embers are staring new fires every day.

[JohnDillworth]

On a more optimistic note I suspect this will burn through New York and the surrounding regions by early June. Already making plans for 4th of July.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe
Former SARS, MERS Vaccine Could Treat COVID-19 Patients

"Remdesivir is effective in treating Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), but also may be a successful vaccine for patients with coronavirus, or COVID-19, according to researchers at the University of Alberta.

“We know the drug works against different coronavirus, like MERS and SARS, and we know the novel coronavirus is very similar to SARS. So I would say I’m cautiously optimistic that the results our team found with remdesivir and MERS will be similar with COVID-19,” said Matthias Gotte, a virologist, in a statement "

https://pharmanewsintel.com/news/former ... 9-patients

Geez. This sort of craptacular journalistic reporting just makes me mad. Remdesevir-the topic of the article-is one of several pharmaceutical treatments being field tested in Spain as we speak. It's NOT A VACCINE. But it may be (or may not be) a useful interventional treatment.

In the states, Gilead has received 'orphan drug' status for fast-tracking treatment approval. Fingers crossed on this one.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

As far as intelligence failure, that is on the part of China suppressing this instead of reporting this to the World Health Organization.

I guess by that logic the Japanese should have told us about Pearl Harbor and Bin Ladin should have told us about 9/11. Intelligence agencies are supposed to find out the stuff the other countries don't want us to know. This was their job. To tell us what's REALLY going on in China. There was a systematic failure of the intelligence community to warn us about this. Whether it was a failure on the ground or a failure in reporting and interpretation remains to be seen but a massive failure it was. If they didn't see this coming what they hell do we need them for?
[/quote]

When you quote me, put my name there! [:@]

As far as reporting to the WHO, that is what it is there for and that is a requirement.

So how come you personally did not tell us about 9/11 beforehand, or the risk that something like that could have happened? Oh wait:

Moreover, the Federal Aviation Administration “had indeed considered the possibility that terrorists would hijack a plane and use it as a weapon,” and in 2001 it distributed a CD-ROM presentation to airlines and airports that cited the possibility of a suicide hijacking.

https://thinkprogress.org/fratto-no-one ... 7a501f755/

Two years before the Sept. 11 attacks, an analysis prepared for U.S. intelligence warned that Osama bin Laden's terrorists could hijack an airliner and fly it into government buildings like the Pentagon.

"Suicide bomber(s) belonging to al Qaeda's Martyrdom Battalion could crash-land an aircraft packed with high explosives (C-4 and semtex) into the Pentagon, the headquarters of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), or the White House," the September 1999 report said.
.
.
.
The September 1999 report, entitled "Sociology and Psychology of Terrorism: Who Becomes a Terrorist and Why?" described suicide hijacking as one of several possible retribution attacks the al Qaeda might seek for a 1998 U.S. airstrike against bin Laden's camps in Afghanistan.

The report noted an al Qaeda-linked terrorist first arrested in the Philippines in 1995 and later convicted in the 1993 World Trade Center bombing had suggested such a mission.

"Ramzi Yousef had planned to do this against the CIA headquarters," the report said.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/report-war ... ijackings/

I won't go into the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, watch the movie "Tora, Tora, Tora" instead.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe
Former SARS, MERS Vaccine Could Treat COVID-19 Patients

"Remdesivir is effective in treating Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), but also may be a successful vaccine for patients with coronavirus, or COVID-19, according to researchers at the University of Alberta.

“We know the drug works against different coronavirus, like MERS and SARS, and we know the novel coronavirus is very similar to SARS. So I would say I’m cautiously optimistic that the results our team found with remdesivir and MERS will be similar with COVID-19,” said Matthias Gotte, a virologist, in a statement "

https://pharmanewsintel.com/news/former ... 9-patients

Geez. This sort of craptacular journalistic reporting just makes me mad. Remdesevir-the topic of the article-is one of several pharmaceutical treatments being field tested in Spain as we speak. It's NOT A VACCINE. But it may be (or may not be) a useful interventional treatment.

In the states, Gilead has received 'orphan drug' status for fast-tracking treatment approval. Fingers crossed on this one.

Yes, words were misused in the article. But it still may be a useful treatment. Not being an editor at that place which published this, I can only go by what is published.

Have a nice hot curry today and be safe. Stay away from chiggers.

[JohnDillworth]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

As far as intelligence failure, that is on the part of China suppressing this instead of reporting this to the World Health Organization.

I guess by that logic the Japanese should have told us about Pearl Harbor and Bin Ladin should have told us about 9/11. Intelligence agencies are supposed to find out the stuff the other countries don't want us to know. This was their job. To tell us what's REALLY going on in China. There was a systematic failure of the intelligence community to warn us about this. Whether it was a failure on the ground or a failure in reporting and interpretation remains to be seen but a massive failure it was. If they didn't see this coming what they hell do we need them for?

When you quote me, put my name there! [:@]

As far as reporting to the WHO, that is what it is there for and that is a requirement.

So how come you personally did not tell us about 9/11 beforehand, or the risk that something like that could have happened? Oh wait:

Moreover, the Federal Aviation Administration “had indeed considered the possibility that terrorists would hijack a plane and use it as a weapon,” and in 2001 it distributed a CD-ROM presentation to airlines and airports that cited the possibility of a suicide hijacking.

https://thinkprogress.org/fratto-no-one ... 7a501f755/

Two years before the Sept. 11 attacks, an analysis prepared for U.S. intelligence warned that Osama bin Laden's terrorists could hijack an airliner and fly it into government buildings like the Pentagon.

"Suicide bomber(s) belonging to al Qaeda's Martyrdom Battalion could crash-land an aircraft packed with high explosives (C-4 and semtex) into the Pentagon, the headquarters of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), or the White House," the September 1999 report said.
.
.
.
The September 1999 report, entitled "Sociology and Psychology of Terrorism: Who Becomes a Terrorist and Why?" described suicide hijacking as one of several possible retribution attacks the al Qaeda might seek for a 1998 U.S. airstrike against bin Laden's camps in Afghanistan.

The report noted an al Qaeda-linked terrorist first arrested in the Philippines in 1995 and later convicted in the 1993 World Trade Center bombing had suggested such a mission.

"Ramzi Yousef had planned to do this against the CIA headquarters," the report said.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/report-war ... ijackings/

I won't go into the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, watch the movie "Tora, Tora, Tora" instead.
[/quote]. You do seem to be going through an awful lot of gyrations to blame anybody but the person responsible for the failures.

[DD696]

Please stop the "I can piss further than you" contests. There is plenty of that going on in the world at the moment. Do not let this thread devolve into the General Discussion Corona Virus Pissing Contest.

This has been very informative, but when this crap starts the value of this thread greatly diminishes.

Personally, I dribble piss out of a stoma into a bag, so I cannot piss further than dribbling down my abdomen and leg.

[Cap Mandrake]

"the person" [8|]

I presume that does not mean Mr Chou who sold the bat-shit covered pangolin burgers at the Wuhan wet market? Or Mr. Liu who scraped the thing off the road with a shovel?

How is the CIA supposed to spot a couple of guys with fever and cough in the middle of the influenza season?

I realize you may be angry and I grieve for New York but let's get real.

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: DD696

Please stop the "I can piss further than you" contests. There is plenty of that going on in the world at the moment. Do not let this thread devolve into the General Discussion Corona Virus Pissing Contest.

This has been very informative, but when this crap starts the value of this thread greatly diminishes.

Personally, I dribble piss out of a stoma into a bag, so I cannot piss further than dribbling down my abdomen and leg.

Beautiful town, Savannah.

Here is something from the Bonaventure Cemetery, an apt location

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: obvert
I've not been an optimist in this discussion, and yet I'm looking for good news anywhere I can find it right now. Anyone got any?

It's not much, but Switzerland has 'inflected' downwards for the last three days in numbers of cases. Their 'lagging indicator' of daily mortality is still climbing, but I would venture that that will stabilize soon.

That's really it, mate. Not much good news out there to hang one's hat on.[:(]

[Jorge_Stanbury]

another good news:

Burundi is the only African country without any case of coronavirus. When the Minister Of Health was asked about the secret behind the zero case of covid-19, this is what he had to say; "It is very simple. We don't have the testing kits.