OT: Corona virus

[RangerJoe]

Went to a Target store to buy something. Not very bust but some people were there. The person in charge of the tellers was sanitizing the handles of the shopping carts - properly, that is, making sure that the part where the fingers wrap around was also sanitized.

When I left the apartment building today, a maintenance man working for the landlord said "Stay 6 feet away **^*%*@ucker, social distancing . . . " With that language, we almost got a lot closer . . .

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Back to the topic at hand:

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-mortality-risk


ETA: The article also does a very nice job in distinguishing between the "Case Fatality Rate" and the "Infection Fatality Rate". Very often (and the author cites a particularly craptastic piece of journalism by the New York Times) the media misstates what they're looking for and misapplies the terms.

A good read and although I wasn't clear on the precise use of terms before, I get them now, and realise most reports I've read use the two ideas whether they use the terms or not.

I just read the referenced NY Times article, which I'read a the time as well. I found the graph showing fatality rates useful as it distinguished between many known diseases in their transmission capability vs fatality rate. As far as I could tell the article steers clear of BOTH terms, probably so as not to confuse the general reader while still getting across that main piece of knowledge at the time, which is that this Coronavirus is more lethal than the flu and they show a range in the graph below.

At the bottom of the graph the term Case Fatality Rate is used with a disclaimer that these numbers "vary" and that the Covid numbers were preliminary, which seemed exactly what the writer of the outworldindata piece was trying to assert.

So I can't figure out what is wrong with trying to provide some early estimates and comparisons to more known diseases while cautioning that it was still too early to tell for sure. Seemed pretty responsible to me.

There is a lot of incomplete, irresponsible journalism out there but I don't find this NY Times article to fall in that category.

On the limited example you've provided, they've clearly mislabeled the chart. The IFR/CFR for 2009 flu was not "0". Technically, neither is Chickenpox. So there's that.

By having a poorly defined concept of 'fatality rate' (what's that defined as for this chart-there's no subtext?) on a logarithmic chart-that most people don't understand well-they could very well be overstating the likelihood of worst outcomes by a factor of 20. Intentionally misleading? Probably not. But they could have done a better job at conveying probable outcomes.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

He was referring to cases in general, not mortality.

Ah - a mid-April peak on number of new cases roughly tracks with everything else I've seen.

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Looking at this again, the irrationality of the numbers we're getting from the media and the experts seems apparent.

Most of them are estimating infection rates of 50% to 70% in the US. That means about 170,000,000 to 238,000,000 should be infected. Using the "standard" (nearly universally accepted) mortality rate of 1% yields and expected death toll of 1,750,000 to 2,380,000.

Since those totals are 10x or more what the experts are now floating, there's something wrong. Either the 50% to 70% is way off or the mortality rate is way off. If it's the latter, and if Dr. Fauci is right at 100k to 200k mortality, that means the mortality rate is something like 0.1% or less, which is the same or less than seasonal flu.

So if it isn't the mortality rate that's off, its the infection rate. Instead of 50% or 70% of the nation being infected it would be more like 5%! (5% of 340,000,000 x 1% yields 170k, a figure within Dr. Fauci's range).

Or it could be that both numbers are off considerably.

Not matter what, the numbers don't add up. They never add up. The media and the experts are so focused on working with numbers that they torture them and don't realize the outcomes contradict each other. Either we're going to have a lot less infected than they're predicting or the mortality rate is going to be much less than 1%....or both. My bet is the latter.

I think part of this is that the mortality rate is only among symptomatic cases. I don't think the 50% to 70% exposure/infection rate when this is all over (months/years from now) is at all unlikely or unreasonable if the R0 (number of people it spreads to for each infected person) on this is in the 2.5 - 3.1 range (the flu is usually around 1.3 or so). Right now, social distancing and quarantine measures will depress that R0, but unless we're able to quarantine and eradicate every instance of the virus, it's going to spread among the general population eventually.

Given that there are widespread reports of asymptomatic cases (which may not be contagious) as well as cases with very mild symptoms that would be indistinguishable from a common cold, it's easy to see how the eventual overall infection rate could be half or more of the population.

For all I know, I could have it right now but be asymptomatic and I would never know. And if my partner were also to be asymptomatic, nobody would ever know. Unless/until we got tested for antibodies.

FWIW, it looks like Italy is going to reach their death rate peak in about a week.

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Last year, I re-read Stephen King's The Stand. It's a terrific novel about a bio-weapon escape that kills most of humanity. The few survivors begin having dreams.

Last week, there were reports in the news of people having dreams! Zoiks, thinks I!

Anyhow, The Stand is a great read but might be too rattling right now.

THere was also a miniseries starring Molly Ringwald and Gary Sinese. I don't know if it is any good, as I've never seen it. But it's apparently available on YouTube, here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0e64sPHWnsY

I might watch it, but I definitely won't encourage my wife to.

One of my favorites. Although I did not care for the miniseries all that much. Flagg was great, and Sinise was alright, but I didn't feel like it really captured the energy of the novel all that well.

When this first started happening about a month or two ago, I jokingly told my board that everybody should read it while they were isolating themselves.

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

It's doubtful that I'll have time tomorrow during work hours (and after that I'm going outside), but if we can agree on a source to use (Johns Hopkins?), I can put these into Excel for daily visualization.

This source, as well as these below, have been my daily stalwarts:

covidtracking.com/data/ (which has the state by state data in 'data as a spreadsheet') and

worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries (for the global picture)

Cool - the state by state one wasn't one that I was aware of yet. The CDC has a page but I haven't had time to fully explore its functionality.

I'll try to start on a spreadsheet today.

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

If your dreams involve "Mother Abigail" sitting on the front porch of an old ramshackle house set in a Nebraska cornfield, you're one of the good guys. If, on the other hand, the subject is "The Walking Dude" aka Randall Flagg, go to church immediately with sincerity and purity of heart and stop dreaming about naked Buddy Hacketts.

P.S. I dream a lot. Usually nightmares that I'm still a lawyer (seriously). But my dreams are no more or less frequent.

A reasonable fear.

Same. After my bout with insomnia in 2007ish, my body seems to have altered the way I sleep. I now basically only have REM sleep and am able to get right back into it if I'm awakened, as long as I haven't been awake for too long (more than 15 minutes or so). It's great for continuing whatever dream I was having. Additional bonus is that I seem to only require ~6.75 hours of sleep this way as my REM cycles appear to be about 3 hours each. I started keeping a daily sleep log 627 days ago.

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Back to the topic at hand:

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-mortality-risk

Really good discussion of issues impacting CFR. Many of these have been bandied about here, but this is a well-written and concise article. Highly recommended to check out the 'slider' on the lower right corner of the page that compares different regional / national CFRs over time.

ETA: The graph at the bottom right of the page with the slider is actually reflective of the "Infection Fatality Rate" rather than the Case Fatality Rate so misused in the media. I'm more interested in the IFR as it reflects what most people are interested in: "If I get this, what are the odds that it will make me sick enough to die?" The Case Fatality Rate includes nebulous factors such as willingness to go to hospital, quality of medical care locally, what one's definition of a 'case' is and so forth.

I think a salient point the authors made was that as the number of positive tests increase exponentially, if deaths only increase linearly then that drops the CFR. In other words, more testing = more 'ground truth' for what this virus really means for a given population. Since the bodies are harder to hide (except in China apparently), if you want to drop the CFR, find more positive people in your burgeoning testing program. Those that only preferentially test the sickest hospital admissions cases will artificially elevate their CFR.

ETA: The article also does a very nice job in distinguishing between the "Case Fatality Rate" and the "Infection Fatality Rate". Very often (and the author cites a particularly craptastic piece of journalism by the New York Times) the media misstates what they're looking for and misapplies the terms.

+10 for this succinct and helpful clarification of what we're talking about.

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

You're right, John: Today, the Guadalcanal campaign is memorable for two reasons. First, it was the closest the U.S. came to losing the war in the Pacific, but second, its victory put America on the offensive against Japan for the rest of the war. It was, as Winston Churchill said, “not even the beginning of the end, but it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.” https://www.saturdayeveningpost.com/201 ... beginning/

I've always thought the quote specifically applied to Guadalcanal, though the source/quote above doesn't make that absolutely clear.

Churchill is good for a good quote, but IMO he's incorrect here. The end of the beginning was June 4-5, 1942. Guadalcanal was the beginning of something else - not the end, but the middle act of the war for sure. Without going too much off topic, I'd place the beginning of the end at the Tarawa/Makin invasion with the first "combat trial" of the combined arms amphibious tactics that would be used for the rest of the war.

I think Ian Toll's book, Pacific Crucible, would be a fairly good read for anyone who's curious about why the end of the beginning would properly be placed at the Battle of Midway.

[MakeeLearn]

Virus–virus interactions impact the population dynamics of influenza and the common cold
December 26, 2019 116 (52) 27142-27150; first published December 16, 2019

https://www.pnas.org/content/116/52/27142


A study in Scotland, from 2005 to 2013, where they did mass tests on the various forms of winter virus that cause the flu, and found that 7-15% of flu cases are caused by Coronaviruses. At least that was the case in Glasgow from 2005 to 2013.




"Our study provides strong statistical support for the existence of interactions among genetically broad groups of respiratory viruses at both population and individual host scales.

Our findings imply that the incidence of influenza infections is interlinked with the incidence of noninfluenza viral infections with implications for the improved design of disease forecasting models and the evaluation of disease control interventions.

Future experimental studies are required to decipher the biological mechanisms that underpin virus–virus interactions and their effects on the within-host dynamics of infection."

[geofflambert]

This latest assessment of the Covid-19 best strategies in the US comes from the American Medical Association:

The Allergists were in favor of scratching it, but the Dermatologists advised not to make any rash moves.
The Gastroenterologists had sort of a gut feeling about it, but the Neurologists thought the Administration had a lot of nerve.

Meanwhile, Obstetricians felt certain everyone was laboring under a misconception, while the Ophthalmologists considered the idea shortsighted.

Pathologists yelled, "Over my dead body!" while the Pediatricians said, "Oh, grow up!”

The Psychiatrists thought the whole idea was madness, while the Radiologists could see right through it.

Surgeons decided to wash their hands of the whole thing and the Internists claimed it would indeed be a bitter pill to swallow.

The Plastic Surgeons opined that this proposal would "put a whole new face on the matter.”

The Podiatrists thought it was a step forward, but the Urologists were pissed off at the whole idea.

Anesthesiologists thought the whole idea was a gas, and those lofty Cardiologists didn’t have the heart to say no.

In the end, the Proctologists won out, leaving the strategy to the assholes in Washington.

[Chickenboy]

And, because some of them were catty, nobody listened to the dogged optimism of the Veterinarians.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

And, because some of them were catty, nobody listened to the dogged optimism of the Veterinarians.

Chicken Littles! [:D]

Go Chickenboy!

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

You're right, John: Today, the Guadalcanal campaign is memorable for two reasons. First, it was the closest the U.S. came to losing the war in the Pacific, but second, its victory put America on the offensive against Japan for the rest of the war. It was, as Winston Churchill said, “not even the beginning of the end, but it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.” https://www.saturdayeveningpost.com/201 ... beginning/

I've always thought the quote specifically applied to Guadalcanal, though the source/quote above doesn't make that absolutely clear.

warspite1

I've always understood this wonderful line referred to El-Alamein.

Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. but it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.

[Wuffer]

ORIGINAL: geofflambert


...

In the end, the Proctologists won out, leaving the strategy to the assholes in Washington.

gorgious!

[Canoerebel]

OT: For the past ten years, I've taught an adult Sunday school class at my li'l ol' country church. On occasion, I'll draw quotes from Churchill, Twain, Franklin, and the Book of Proverbs. I'll mix 'em up and invite the class to guess the author, as I read through them. It's always fun.

General William T. Sherman, the Yankee juggernaut, was another quote machine.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: alanschu

Wife is feeling ill (cough, aches, runny nose) and she called health service early in the morning. They feel that it's probably not Covid, but have asked us to isolate for 10 days as a precaution.

Primarily only affects her (she still had to go to work, now is not), but will mean we don't do any provision runs (we should be okay though).

Runny nose is rarely a symptom, but who knows these days for the mild cases. Stay well and hope she feels better soon.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: alanschu

Wife is feeling ill (cough, aches, runny nose) and she called health service early in the morning. They feel that it's probably not Covid, but have asked us to isolate for 10 days as a precaution.

Primarily only affects her (she still had to go to work, now is not), but will mean we don't do any provision runs (we should be okay though).

Runny nose is rarely a symptom, but who knows these days for the mild cases. Stay well and hope she feels better soon.

Here is the list of symptoms from that Johns Hopkins page.

Symptoms

Fever (44%–98%)
Range may be lower at initial hospital presentation or in the outpatient setting
Cough (46–82%, usually dry)
Shortness of breath at onset (31%)
Myalgia or fatigue (11–44%)
Less common symptoms:
Pharyngitis
Headache
Productive cough
GI symptoms
Have been described as a presenting symptom, and potentially heralding more severe illness.
Hemoptysis

https://www.hopkinsguides.com/hopkins/view/Johns_Hopkins_ABX_Guide/540747/all/Coronavirus_COVID_19__SARS_CoV_2_#1

[Wuffer]

Wish I could really share the optimism? Hesitated two days to post this.
You are sitting comfortable, please?

Meanwhile, a leaked strategy paper from the German Interior Ministry as quoted by trustworthy newspapers and state TV.

"According to experts, by far the most important measure against the virus is "testing and isolating the infected persons".

The ministry compares three scenarios on the course of the epidemic.
The "Worst Case" scenario assumes that the doubling of the number of infected persons will increase from 3 days at the beginning to 6 days in mid-April and to 9 days at the end of April (currently it is almost 5 1/2 days and rising). In this case, about 70 percent of the population would have been infected by the end of May. Up to 350,000 people would require intensive medical care at the same time - which, given the available capacities, would mean that 85 percent of those who need it would have to be turned away. In this scenario, almost 1.2 million people would die from the corona virus within two months. Based on projections from other countries, the Ministry of the Interior assumes a mortality rate of 1.2 percent(*), provided that sufficient hospital care is available; at times when capacities are insufficient, a mortality rate of 2 percent is assumed.

In a [second] scenario known as "stretching", it is assumed that the doubling of the number of infected persons will increase to 6 days by the beginning of April and to 9 days by mid-April as a result of stricter measures to reduce physical contact. In this case, only about 20 percent of the population would be infected. The demand for intensive care beds would only slightly exceed the capacity, so that only 16 percent of patients would have to be turned away. In this scenario, only about 220,000 people would die. However, the state of emergency with extensive contact restrictions would have to last about 7 months.

STRATEGY PAPER OF THE INTERIOR MINISTRY "To make testing faster and more efficient, the use of Big Data and location tracking is essential in the longer term." The third scenario is called "Hammer and Dance", apparently in reference to a much quoted article on containment strategies for the corona epidemic. This assumes that in addition to extending the doubling time, the spread of the virus can then be greatly reduced by extensive testing and isolation of infected persons. This will reduce the number of infected persons to a total of around 1 million and the number of dead to 12,000.

"The experts hope that the test capacity in Germany can be increased "very quickly". They are running a scenario in which 50,000 tests per day are possible from 6th April, 100,000 from 13th April and 200,000 at the end of April. 300,000 to 500,000 coronavirus tests per week are currently possible, according to Health Minister Jens Spahn." (SZ 27th March)

Besides the health consequences, the Ministry of the Interior also warns in drastic words of the economic and social consequences. In the best case scenario of rapid containment and control of further spread, the gross domestic product would only fall by 4 percent. In the worst case, a slump of 32 percent is conceivable. The paper describes what this could mean as follows: "It threatens to change the community into a completely different basic state, up to anarchy."


[X(]

What does this mean for other countries?


Source: suddeutsche, NDR, WDR - translation via Deepl.
https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/cor ... llid=16047
---
(*) very optimistic IMHO, even South Korea confirmed 3%

[alanschu]

ORIGINAL: obvert

Runny nose is rarely a symptom, but who knows these days for the mild cases. Stay well and hope she feels better soon.

Yeah, I suspect that that symptom in particular is why the person on the phone told her it likely was not Covid-19. Fortunately we're able to endure a minor quarantine without loss of income.

Although working from home when I'm not alone is a lot more difficult just due to distractions.

[RangerJoe]

Look at the date when this started:

How 3M Plans to Make More Than a Billion Masks By End of Year

Aberdeen, S.D., got the call from headquarters on Tuesday, Jan. 21. He gathered about 20 managers and supervisors into a conference room, where they sat, unworried, less than 6 feet apart. Rehder told them that a new virus was spreading rapidly in China and that 3M was expecting demand for protective gear to jump.

The Aberdeen plant had already ramped up production of respirator masks in response to demand from first responders battling wildfires in Australia and contending with a volcano in the Philippines. Now, Rehder told his charges, Aberdeen would shift to “surge capacity.” Idle machinery installed for precisely this purpose would be activated, and many of the plant’s 650 employees would immediately start working overtime. “We knew it wouldn’t be a two-week blip, it would be longer,” Rehder says. “But I had no idea.”
relates to How 3M Plans to Make More Than a Billion Masks By End of Year
Featured in Bloomberg Businessweek, March 30, 2020. Subscribe now.
Photo illustration: 731; Photographer: Jamie Chung for Bloomberg Businessweek

This is 3M’s moment, one for which the staid, 118-year-old Minnesota manufacturing giant—the maker of Post-its, Scotch tape, touchscreen displays, and scores of other products—has been preparing for almost two decades. Coming out of the SARS epidemic of 2002-03, the company realized it wasn’t fully equipped to handle unexpected explosions of demand in the event of a crisis, or what it calls an “X factor.” It decided to build surge capacity into its respirator factories around the world.

Over the years, with X factors such as the Ebola panic and the H1N1 flu virus generating flash floods of demand, the company kept refining its emergency response. When the world started clamoring for respirator masks to help confront coronavirus, 3M was ready.

People everywhere are scrambling for ventilators, Covid-19 test kits, bleach, and toilet paper. But almost no item is as scarce—and as vital to addressing this medical emergency—as the N95 respirator masks made by 3M, Honeywell, Medicom, and a smattering of other companies. Without respirators, doctors, nurses, and other medical personnel are at increased risk of contracting the affliction they’re treating.

China, where this coronavirus originated, also happens to produce half the world’s respirators. As the outbreak spread, the Chinese government halted mask exports and demanded that all in-country manufacturers, including 3M, crank up production. Shortages swiftly developed as Covid-19 cases appeared in Asia, Europe, and the U.S., forcing health-care workers to reuse old respirators and cobble together ersatz masks from materials bought at craft stores. In America, states are bidding against one another for masks priced as much as 10 times the usual cost of 60¢ to 80¢ apiece.

3M can’t save the day on its own, but it’s promising a remarkably large contribution. The company has in two months doubled global production of N95 masks to about 100 million a month, and it’s planning to invest in new equipment to push annual mask production to 2 billion within 12 months. On March 22, Chief Executive Officer Mike Roman said in a news release that 3M had sent 500,000 respirators to hard-hit Seattle and New York City, and that it was ramping up production of hand sanitizers and disinfectants as well. Two days later, Roman said 3M would work with Ford Motor Co. to produce powered air purifying respirators, waist-mounted devices that blow air into helmets that shield wearers. Honeywell is also increasing N95 production, saying it will hire at least 500 people to expand capacity at a facility in Rhode Island.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features ... ket-newtab

[Canoerebel]

Last week, a Brit university revised expected mortality in the UK to 20k, down from something like 500k in earlier projections. No way Germany is going to let the UK kick its butt.

[MakeeLearn]

Two days.... April 1..... All them monthly Guber'ment checks will be hitting accounts.


Mad Max at the stores?!

[MakeeLearn]

RI has 132 cases of COVID-19; stores must limit crowds of customers
Mar 25, 2020

https://www.wpri.com/health/coronavirus ... us-update/

"She (Gov. Gina Raimondo) said the state was getting too many reports of “big box stores” with too many people inside in close proximity.

“The only way I can continue to keep these big stores open is if we try a little bit harder to avoid crowds,” Raimondo said. She acknowledged that it might result in lines outside stores, and said people would be asked to space themselves out in line as they wait to go inside."

[MakeeLearn]

ID2020 and partners launch program to provide digital ID with vaccines
Sep 20, 2019

https://www.biometricupdate.com/201909/ ... h-vaccines

"The ID2020 Alliance has launched a new digital identity program at its annual summit in New York, in collaboration with the Government of Bangladesh, vaccine alliance Gavi, and new partners in government, academia, and humanitarian relief.

The program to leverage immunization as an opportunity to establish digital identity was unveiled by ID2020 in partnership with the Bangladesh Government’s Access to Information (a2i) Program, the Directorate General of Health Services, and Gavi, according to the announcement.

Digital identity is a computerized record of who a person is, stored in a registry. It is used, in this case, to keep track of who has received vaccination."

[MakeeLearn]

"The ID2020 Alliance is setting the course of digital ID through a multi-stakeholder partnership, ensuring digital ID is responsibly implemented and widely accessible."


"Steering the market towards good digital ID solutions through our Certification Mark."



https://id2020.org/