OT: Corona virus

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

I'll throw out the frozen chicken in the fridge.

You should plant them and grow some chickens!

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Thanks for the education Obvert. Pretty part of the world you live in. Only got to visit a couple of times. Was coming back late summer. Not so sure now

I miss it. It's where I spent my first 29 years, in Oregon and Washington. We travelled a lot throughout the NW and to see those landscapes and spend real time in them is pretty good. SE Oregon is a hidden gem, off the radar for most. One of the reasons I was surprised to see a few cases even listed out there on the NY Times county based map.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

I am going to Smart and Final after work and buying about 5 restaurant size bags of Starbucks french roast. I'll throw out the frozen chicken in the fridge.

I hope you saved room for the Hendrick's somewhere too!

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

I almost forgot! Imports/Exports! No. Forget about them. Well, some countries, like Kenya, are still exporting - at 300% the usual price. The EU is trying to create a new set of rules to facilitate the internal circulation of fresh products - but you must have a surplus of fresh products to circulate them.

Now, believe it or not, all of the above is only the "rock". Explaining the "hard place" is much simpler: since a couple of months many workers choose to not work at all for fear of the virus, and it was so sudden that it was impossible to replace them in time. The fields and orchards assigned to them are barren.

There is no way around it. We will have shortages in the markets and most of the "basic food" prices will go up. This will affect everyone, even the rich, because you cannot buy something that it is not there. But the impact on the poors will be devastating - in a situation where Italy is already a ticking bomb.

Hard to argue with that. Labor intensive harvesting is going to suffer. Fruits and fresh vegetables. I am still seeing harvesting of stawberries and high value crops going on in SoCal but huge numbers of laborers are needed for lettuce and peppers and avocados and the like. Grains are mostly harvested by machine in the US.

A lot of kids used to do this work as their summer jobs. I picked berries with a field 80% full of Central Americans when I was 15, and they kicked my butt in terms of speed. They could get two flats done while I was still finishing my first.

It sounds like they'll have to get farming communities out doing this work. I'd say put some rules in place and let people earn a bit extra while getting some air and eating few fresh fruit and veg during their shifts. It's pretty easy to distance in a field, and if it's locals, who can get there without a bus, it could be viable.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

@obvert: A request. Can you find an updated map showing the case doubling rate map that you showed a few days ago? It was the one that compared different countries' 'trajectory' re: when cases doubled (every two days/every three days/ whatnot). If you can identify a recent one that shows regional distributions (e.g., northern Italy and certain US states), that would be welcome too. Thanks.

The one the FT does is for cases by country/day, and they have them by region for deaths, below. As we now suspect, that Wuhan curve may need some adjustment.

Today thought they took off the doubling/tripling lines for some reason, but the comparisons are there.

It's this thread: https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

I am going to Smart and Final after work and buying about 5 restaurant size bags of Starbucks french roast. I'll throw out the frozen chicken in the fridge.

I hope you saved room for the Hendrick's somewhere too!

Well, that you can stack up on the counter. I bought so many olives everyone laughed at me. Who's laughing now, eh? Improbably, we finished off the vermouth. Tonic water is gone too.

<eyes get big> The distillaries are making hand sanitizer now. [X(]

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

@obvert: A request. Can you find an updated map showing the case doubling rate map that you showed a few days ago? It was the one that compared different countries' 'trajectory' re: when cases doubled (every two days/every three days/ whatnot). If you can identify a recent one that shows regional distributions (e.g., northern Italy and certain US states), that would be welcome too. Thanks.

The one the FT does is for cases by country/day, and they have them by region for deaths, below. As we now suspect, that Wuhan curve may need some adjustment.

Today thought they took off the doubling/tripling lines for some reason, but the comparisons are there.

It's this thread: https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

If you fame-shift the Lombardy curve back 14 days and the Madrid curve back 12 days or so I think they are slightly steeper than the New York curve.

Ignore the absolute value. Lombardy has about half the population of NY state. NY city alone has an incredible 8 million people crammed into 300 sq mi

[Cap Mandrake]

The Wuhan curve is complete fabrication.

The South Korean results are astounding.

[Canoerebel]

I think there's something wrong with the Daegu numbers. South Korea daily mortality has never exceeded nine in a day, per Worldometers, but the FT chart above shows Daegu, presumably just a part of S. Korea, as above 20 each day. What's going on there? [&:]

[Canoerebel]

The flattening trend in Italy continues, yet the numbers are stubbornly high.

[Canoerebel]

Here's the Worldometers mortality chart for South Korea. Undoubtedly, the choppiness is due to the low numbers - never above nine in a single day. So a mortality or two results in the big swings, day to day.

[MakeeLearn]

"For example, in South Korea, which conducted more than 140,000 tests for COVID-19, officials found a fatality rate of 0.6%."


https://www.livescience.com/is-coronavirus-deadly.html

[MakeeLearn]

As Cap Mandrake alluded to earlier...


Why are young, healthy people dying from COVID-19? Genes may reveal the answer.
a day ago

https://www.livescience.com/genes-for-c ... erity.html

"Several ongoing projects aim to analyze and compare the DNA of those with severe COVID-19 infection to those with mild or asymptomatic cases. Differences may lie in genes that instruct human cells to build a receptor called ACE2, which the novel coronavirus relies on to enter cells, Science reported. Alternatively, it may be that genes that support the body's immune response to the virus differ between individuals, or that those with particular blood types carry protective genetic traits that shield them from illness, as suggested by a preliminary study from China."

[MakeeLearn]

Mother Nature is trying to solve some of our other problems that people B***H about.

[alanschu]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

As per one of my previous posts, a Coronavirus was killing people from 2005 to 2013 and being labeled as THE FLU.

If I'm not mistaken, I think I saw a breakdown that Coronavirus is in a similar genetic family to the common cold which does share a lot of flu symptoms as well? If so I could see a less contagious strain of it being considered the flu by a lot of people.

[MakeeLearn]

type A blood was the most prominent in Korea, accounting for roughly 34 percent of the population,
followed by type O (28 percent),
type B (27 percent),
and type AB (11 percent),
according to Gallup Korea.

[Canoerebel]

Like 22sec's report about Mississippi, the situation in Georgia isn't quite what you'd take from the map (though we don't have a statewide shelter-in-place edict).

Here, the state mostly allowed local governments to handle regulations and ordinances. They did so surprisingly quickly. Schools closed, social distancing regulations were enacted, and some jurisdictions issued stay-at-home orders much earlier than other states and many European countries. (As noted before this is because the US had the benefit of going "last," learning from others.)

To this point, the local discretion seems to be working well. High density populations tend to have much stricter policies, while rural ones are a bit more relaxed. But even in the rural counties, the schools closed before those in England did, which seems counterintuitive to what would've been expected.

There will be many ways to look at this in the future. Among the more puzzling aspects is how Washington and California have done comparatively well, considering they were bushwhacked early in the process.

ORIGINAL: 22sec

ORIGINAL: obvert

The FT have updated their US map to show what restrictions are in place state by state in the US. There are still a lot of states without any order to stay home it seems, and yet those all show cases present. Some quite a few, like Florida. Has there been informal suggestion to stay at home and isolate in these areas, or what is the message from local and state governments?

Here in Mississippi the governor has either left it up to local communities, or if the Department of Health advises a shelter in place for a community based on their data. For a state like ours, I believe it’s the better approach. There are plenty of rural counties that such an order doesn’t make sense. Hear in Jackson, the mayor just today has issued a shelter in place order. Even in that order there are numerous provisions for leaving the house.

[MakeeLearn]

Who did not see this coming.

Hasn't there been a movie, tv show, book about this every two years.... or less.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

I am going to Smart and Final after work and buying about 5 restaurant size bags of Starbucks french roast. I'll throw out the frozen chicken in the fridge.

Costco has Doritos Nachos Cheese chips on sale.

[JohnDillworth]

I was surprised to see a few cases even listed out there on the NY Times county based map.

I'm a bit surprised by some of the places it got to also. In NYC, we thought we had 2 weeks only to find out it was here for 4 weeks already. Who knows how. It's a port and a hub. China maybe, Italy probably. Students are moving it around. Many study overseas. Louisiana has thousands of cases, made worse by Mardi Gras but for every case they have 5 got on a plane and took it somewhere else. Same with Spring Break. Just read this morning Idaho is picking lots of cases in the ski towns by people fleeing the west coast. Same in Utah and Colorado. It's insidious. It hides for weeks and then it is everywhere. I expect when the great big book of this is written many of the flu deaths in late 2019 early 202 may get reclassified. The social distancing is starting to work. We will lose many but buy some time. When this comes back in the fall we will be better prepared. The new normal is still being defined