OT: Corona virus

[MakeeLearn]

Coronavirus updates: COVID-19 cases top 1 million worldwide
April 2, 2020 / 3:57 PM

https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/co ... 020-04-02/

"The global death toll from the coronavirus now tops 50,000, according to Johns Hopkins University. And the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases around the world surpassed 1 million.

There are now more than 220,000 confirmed cases in the U.S., and that number is spiraling upward. Over 5,100 people have died across the country. "

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: RFalvo69

ORIGINAL: HansBolter




And of course we are expected to react to any and every claim that the sky is falling by immediately putting all of our resources into restructuring the universe to accommodate the claim?

No. Only those supported by hard scientific facts.

Edit: Anyway, I agree with Canoerebel. It is sensitive. Let's not wake this dog here.

The root of disagreement is what are claimed to be hard scientific facts accepted by nearly all researchers but which are in fact hotly debated by researchers. So, as you say, and as Erik asks, lets leave this alone here. [8D]

Except that the dissenting researchers are :

i: the minority
ii: typically have a vested interest in disagreeing with the scientific consensus.

Don't take my word for it, take NASA!

https://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/

[MakeeLearn]

The Coronavirus’s Unique Threat to the South

More young people in the South seem to be dying from COVID-19. Why?
5:00 AM ET


https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/ar ... le/609241/


"The world is about to find out. So far, about one in 10 deaths in the United States from COVID-19 has occurred in the four-state arc of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia, according to data assembled by the COVID Tracking Project, a volunteer collaboration incubated at The Atlantic.
New Orleans is on pace to become the next global epicenter of the pandemic.
The virus has a foothold in southwestern Georgia, and threatens to overwhelm hospitals in the Atlanta metropolitan area. The coronavirus is advancing quickly across the American South.

Spain’s official accounting of the pandemic last week showed that deaths among people under 70 years old make up only about 12 percent of total deaths in the country.

Tricia Neuman, a senior vice president at the Kaiser Family Foundation, says this analysis points to the underlying issues that might complicate or worsen the pandemic in the South.
“Due to high rates of conditions like lung disease and heart disease and obesity, the people living in these states are at risk if they get the virus,” Neuman told me. These aren’t “people who are sick, but these are people who have underlying comorbidities that put them at higher risk of serious illness if they get infected.”"

And in the American South, significant numbers of younger people are battling health conditions that make coronavirus outbreaks more perilous.""

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Erik Rutins

Hi Everyone,

I haven't had time to read through every page, but I'm just going to reiterate that this should not be a political thread. Discussions regarding politics should be taken elsewhere (i.e. not our forum). Stick to news and personal experiences regarding the Coronavirus in this thread. In general, we do not allow personal attacks or controversial discussions on politics or religion specifically because we want these forums to help unite wargamers rather than adding to the division already present in the real world, plus there are many other avenues available for those discussion for those who have to have them.

Regards,

- Erik

Acknowledged, but I'm still going to call out the posts below and then I'm going to be done with it, because posts like these, in this thread and historically, have directly fomented an unwelcoming atmosphere of hostility here, often in the same breath as accusing those of us at whom that hostility is directed of being hostile when we have been anything but. And if this ends up being my last post here because y'all banhammer me for responding to violations of decorum with what is intended as a polite post of my own (that may still technically violate decorum), then so be it. That's actually kind of my whole point, and one I've raised here in the past when efforts to drum out opposing perspectives (intentional or not) have begun dominating discussion.

ORIGINAL: Ian R

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
We are just supposed to take him at his word that it says what he says it says.

As opposed to deliberately misrepresenting what it says? [&:]

I'm sorry, what?

Here's what he wrote: "Meanwhile, according to a 2012 study, cancer patients in the US “lived longer than in the EU, and these survival gains were not due to more aggressive screening of US patients”, but to the higher expenditure that characterises the American system."

No link, so we have no idea what study he's referring to. Nor did I misrepresent what he wrote by saying: "He mentions a single study that pointed to the "higher expenditure" associated with US cancer patients surviving for longer. Well, yeah - they survived for longer, and we pay more for the same treatment in the US than patients do in other countries." He also asserts that the study says spending more = surviving for longer, and that's exactly the kind of claim for which we need a link. It's entirely possible that the study simply says that these cancer patients lived longer and at higher cost but that the higher cost wasn't the plausible direct cause for the survival gains. But he didn't provide a link, so...

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Loka, you and others haven't batted an eye at the most overtly offensive political commentary in here. I could give examples but won't, mainly because I'll be calling out people who spoke in the heat of the moment but who are well-regarded members of this community.

As for MindMessing, if you read through this thread in total, you'll see the repeated snarky nature of his comments, my repeated requests that he take it private or elsewhere, and his refusal to do so. There have been private asides between him and me, and there has been past history, in which he repeats his behavior ad nauseum. I disagree with him on many things - as I do with others - but his behavior has been beyond anything I've encountered before on a Matrix site, by far.

I have him blocked now, so hopefully we can coexist peacefully. But if my presence and attempts to avoid the political mayhem in here (that allegedly wouldn't transpire) fail, I'll bow out of the thread I started.

The most overtly political commentary - what would that be again? Have no fear, I've resolved to call them all out, but I'm not going to tell you to give your mouth a rest as some in this thread have said to us. You're referring to this post that started this whole thing, correct?

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

As an outsider, there's been a strong vein of American exceptionalism in this thread. Things akin to "the US health service amazing and will easily cope", and other claims that aren't really supported by the international health rankings.

Granted, it's nearly twenty years old, but it does challenge these assumptions

https://www.who.int/healthinfo/paper30.pdf

Also, if anyone knows any more recent comprehensive comparison work on healthcare performance, please let me know.

There's a mild, non-accusatory statement in there which is directly related to the global experience of COVID-19 and then a link to support the statement, as well as an open invitation to refute his argument with citations (not empty assertions).

You've encountered behavior worse than his (as if his is bad), but you're just turning a blind eye. Scroll on up to the posts I quoted, why don't you? At this point, because I know you're not actually obtuse, I can only conclude that you're either not reading the posts that shut down those you disagree with or you're deliberately ignoring them, while castigating those you disagree with for their alleged bad behavior. While I do find MM's posts somewhat snarky, and perhaps it's because I've been playing against him for, Idunno, 7 years - he's made it clear that he's just being up front and is amenable to receiving information that supports counterpoints.

You could give examples but won't, you say, but you will when it comes to other "well-regarded members" of this community. Funny how those of us that you do call out happen to be those of us who are younger than Gen X, which ordinarily wouldn't be relevant but for sometimes-present appeals to age-as-experience-as-authority, and do so only when we hold views opposing yours. Maybe you don't intend it to be so, but it definitely comes across as an attack sometimes, and often times as a signal that our thoughts aren't welcome here.

BTW, nobody owns a thread, even if they started it. Once posted, it's everyone's.

ORIGINAL: durnedwolf

I think ya'll need a hug. Not just you but everyone that's been pushing too hard. For those getting their dander up - take a chill-pill - or go outside for a walk while keeping a safe distance from others. We all have a fondness for this forum and most of us have good memories of folks we've met here. Let's not tarnish those memories - eh?

This place has been a great playground for me. I've met a lot of pretty cool folks here. Don't bow out. Just say what you wanna say and let others do the same. If you think someone says something that crosses the line then bring it to a moderator. Otherwise - let them say what they wanna say. Trust me - nothing in this forum or thread is gonna change healthcare or politics or anything else that's going on in the world.

This is a great playground. Come on - let's go play. [:)]

I'm not a hugger, sorry. I would also love to ditch the gatekeeping and just let people post (goes for this whole forum, not just this thread). Gatekeeping is a lot of work when you've got a full time job and full time chores.

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

The government is inefficient and cumbersome

Perhaps, but I don't see anybody else stepping up today. Folks seem pretty happy that me and my daughter (Veterans Administration)are putting on our PPE and putting ourselves in high risk areas to keep the world running. Not to mention my other daughter (pharmacy tech in a town with 800 cases). I personally played a major role in the construction in the largest 911 call taking and dispatch center in the world. And it is preforming magnificently although we are starting to run out of healthy folks to man it. Yes, I'm inefficient and cumbersome but if me and my coworkerks don't show up in NYC and other places this morning what do we have? I'm from the government. I'm here to help. There will be tens of thousands of 911 calls today and many of those calls are from people having the worst, and perhaps last, days of their lives. And someone, from the government, will show up to help. Not a lot of those folks are looking to shrink government to a size you could drown in a bathtub. I don’t see anyone from private industry showing up to take my place on the line today.

While I'm calling out political posts, this one by John isn't political itself but the post it quoted is.

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

My DEATH CHART was posted for discussion of comparison. It's NOT my creation nor my beliefs.

Modern politics is for CHILDREN. I've got news for both sides - "America is over" been heading that way for awhile.

Then maybe you shouldn't have reposted it from wherever you got it, as it's nonsense. Being too busy to verify its veracity isn't an excuse.

BTW, bolded part is at least as political as saying, "As an outsider, there's been a strong vein of American exceptionalism in this thread."

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

ORIGINAL: RFalvo69


Ah well, in two decades we could really be in even worse dire straits: after all, we are deriding a kid who is saying: "Here... Listen... The Planet is becoming a teeny bit warmer... And... I'm a bit worried".

And of course we are expected to react to any and every claim that the sky is falling by immediately putting all of our resources into restructuring the universe to accommodate the claim?

I take exception with your gentrified portrayal of a young fascist shouting at politicians to put their backs against a wall as a mere kid who is a bit worried.

The self same planetary doomsayers have been crying wolf since the 1970s and not a single dire prediction has come to pass.

The worlds coastlines predicted to be under water by now are not. The oil predicted to dry up hasn't (try reading The Deep Hot Biosphere for a different viewpoint). Yaddda, yadda , yadda and so on.........

This is the very politics that poison the thread. Why throw in such a hand grenade?

Hey look, politics again.

Honest question though: who predicted that oil would dry up?

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

This is the second reference to Climate Change in which the poster (in both cases, highly-regarded forumites) referred to it factually, assuming that everybody agrees. While it is the predominant theory, there are still many, including some with credentials, that dispute it to varying degrees. This thread certainly isn't the place to engage in that debate. It's been tried before without success in other threads. We do well to remember that our takes on disputed matters are disputed.

More politics with the insertion of a personal political statement in the call-out of the politics.

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

I have to wonder what percentage of Americans who avoid health care do so as a result of the seemingly prohibitive cost and how many do so simply because they hate the experience.

I avoid doctors like the plague. I make some where around the national average in the way of income and have decent employer provided health insurance.

I still have to have a limb falling off before I will go to a hospital.

My experiences with health care providers has left such a sour taste in my mouth I actively avoid the experience.

For all the science and technology available to them they are still little better than snake oil shamans engaging in guess work.

I didn't get slapped by a nun, but I did get left with half a foot numb because the hack surgeon cut the nerve when sewing my ligament up. His flippant response that some 'incidental' nerve damage is yo be expected might have been something he should have told me up front. Then there was the kidney doctor who gave me a medication for nephrotic syndrome that gave me diabetes.

Some of us simply don't want anything to do with doctors unless we are actually dieing.

My partner is the same way. She hasn't been to a doctor in 5 years, and then it wasn't by choice (allergic reaction). She has different doctors now, and has had a rash of hives for 2+ weeks now as a result of getting into the Virginia creeper in the yard (...despite my warnings and insisting that she should wear gloves and not touch her arms/legs, and she proceeded to do none of those things...). I asked if she could put in a video call request with her doctor and request prescription strength topical steroids or something like that, because she gets highly frustrated in the evenings when the itching flares up, and the response I got was: "My doctors are incompetent." (She thinks this of all medical professionals.) I'm sitting there just thinking while she reports new hives as old ones clear up: "OK, but is avoiding 30 minutes with them really worth all the anguish you're experiencing and b*ing about it for 10 intense minutes every day?" That was my last attempt, she's on her own now [:'(].

ORIGINAL: RFalvo69

Politics? While this emergency has been politicised (which is a totally different thing), check what the USA and Russia are factually doing in the Artic, and then guess what made this possible. Pro tip: not politics.

If you want other sources I can provide them.

Kudos Falvo for understanding the distinction between politicized statements and politics.

And greater kudos for posting your experiences and reports, and tempering them with evidence and insight, and making explicit what comes from your own thoughts as well as from others (and who they are). You've provided a model for positive discussion.

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Whatever.

[MakeeLearn]

Disaster in motion: 3.4 million travelers poured into US as coronavirus pandemic erupted
April 2, 2020, 11:19 AM


https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/disaste ... d=69933625

" An ABC News investigation offers sobering insight into how COVID-19 has spread and penetrated so broadly, so deeply and so quickly in the United States. It also helps explain why Americans, no matter where they live, must continue to heed the warnings of health officials to self distance and why the virus likely was here far earlier than first realized.

With the advent of COVID-19, the world has officially entered a dangerous new phase where a surge in international travel in recent decades served as the springboard -- jet fuel, really -- for an infectious disease potentially to kill hundreds of thousands in the U.S. and infect the global economy at breathtaking speed."

[MakeeLearn]

Map Reveals Hidden U.S. Hotspots of Coronavirus Infection

By adjusting for population, researchers have identified rural areas in several states that could be disproportionally affected by COVID-19

https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... infection/


"The U.S. currently has the most confirmed COVID-19 infections of any country, with more than 203,000 cases as of Wednesday. New York City has emerged as the outbreak’s newest focal point, with more than 44,900 people testing positive as of Wednesday. And major outbreaks are underway in cities such as Seattle and New Orleans. But state-level data may be hiding hotspots in less populous areas.

Now a team from the University of Chicago has mapped confirmed COVID-19 infections per county—and has adjusted for population sizes. The researchers’ findings reveal significant clusters in parts of Georgia, Arkansas and Mississippi, among other areas. Even though the involved populations may be smaller than those of New York or Seattle, they could be disproportionally hit by the disease."

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Former Chicom booster sours on the CCP.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpQFCcSI0pU

Holy conspiracy theory Batman!

This is next level stuff, and while I don't want to believe it I can't help but be influenced. Too much info out there that matches with this interpretation. Yikes!

I think it's clear the presenter is saying "accident" at a "lab", and is NOT saying "bio weapon" or "bio weapon lab". The publicly available information mitigates toward his conclusion, as I presume a bio weapon lab would not be advertising so openly for researchers or have researchers publishing papers.

Yes, but this would make a lot of sense with how much the Chinese government is cleaning up the story and sweeping a lot under the rug.

[MakeeLearn]

Preliminary Estimates of the Prevalence of Selected Underlying Health Conditions Among Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 — United States, February 12–March 28, 2020
April 3, 2020

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6913e2.htm

"Among 122,653 U.S. COVID-19 cases reported to CDC as of March 28, 2020, 7,162 (5.8%) patients had data available pertaining to underlying health conditions or potential risk factors; among these patients, higher percentages of patients with underlying conditions were admitted to the hospital and to an ICU than patients without reported underlying conditions.

These results are consistent with findings from China and Italy, which suggest that patients with underlying health conditions and risk factors, including, but not limited to, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, COPD, coronary artery disease, cerebrovascular disease, chronic renal disease, and smoking, might be at higher risk for severe disease or death from COVID-19.

This analysis was limited by small numbers and missing data because of the burden placed on reporting health departments with rapidly rising case counts, and these findings might change as additional data become available."

[MakeeLearn]

EXCLUSIVE-U.S. Navy expected to relieve commander of coronavirus-stricken aircraft carrier
42 mins ago


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/exclu ... li=BBnbfcL

"WASHINGTON, April 2 (Reuters) - The U.S. Navy is expected to relieve the commander of the aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt, who wrote a scathing letter that leaked to the public asking the Navy for stronger measures to control a coronavirus outbreak onboard, U.S. officials told Reuters on Thursday.

The officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Captain Brett Crozier was being relieved not because he wrote the letter and sent it up through the chain of command but because the Navy believes he leaked it to the media."

[RangerJoe]

Lokasenna

Honest question though: who predicted that oil would dry up?

How about this after a simple search:

7: “By The Year 2000 … There Won’t Be Any More Crude Oil”

On Earth Day in 1970 ecologist Kenneth Watt famously predicted that the world would run out of oil saying, “You’ll drive up to the pump and say, ‘Fill ‘er up, buddy,’ and he’ll say, ‘I am very sorry, there isn’t any.’”

Numerous academics like Watt predicted that American oil production peaked in 1970 and would gradually decline, likely causing a global economic meltdown. However, the successful application of massive hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, caused American oil production to come roaring back and there is currently too much oil on the market.

American oil and natural gas reserves are at their highest levels since 1972 and American oil production in 2014 was 80 percent higher than in 2008 thanks to fracking.

Furthermore, the U.S. now controls the world’s largest untapped oil reserve, the Green River Formation in Colorado. This formation alone contains up to 3 trillion barrels of untapped oil shale, half of which may be recoverable. That’s five and a half times the proven reserves of Saudi Arabia. This single geologic formation could contain more oil than the rest of the world’s proven reserves combined.

From:

7 Enviro Predictions From Earth Day 1970 That Were Just Dead Wrong

https://dailycaller.com/2016/04/22/7-en ... ead-wrong/

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Acknowledged, but I'm still going to call out the posts below and then I'm going to be done with it, because posts like these, in this thread and historically, have directly fomented an unwelcoming atmosphere of hostility here, often in the same breath as accusing those of us at whom that hostility is directed of being hostile when we have been anything but. And if this ends up being my last post here because y'all banhammer me for responding to violations of decorum with what is intended as a polite post of my own (that may still technically violate decorum), then so be it. That's actually kind of my whole point, and one I've raised here in the past when efforts to drum out opposing perspectives (intentional or not) have begun dominating discussion.

Thank you. It's been hard for some time to know that in spite of seeming respect, in spite of many shared positive moments of discourse and game play, that some on this forum continue to demean and marginalise those whose opinions differ from their own. I've been on here for a good long time now, and it's both disheartening and disappointing to see this kind of dialogue happening now, when we know there are much bigger fish to fry.

This should be a time when our own viewpoints, ideals, the things that frustrate and make us cringe, can all be taken a bit more lightly, or even let go completely. That person posting has a family, friends, a life that is important and unique, and we're going through a time when we all have to consider more than ourselves. We're all here because we admire an earlier generation who were able, for the most part, to do just that.

Lets learn, lets share, and lets treat others with some compassion, empathy, and a bit of objective debate around this challenge we all face right now. If we don't already, we will all soon know someone who is sick, who has lost someone, who is sick themself. Be kind.

[RangerJoe]

Lokasenna

You belittled what I posted in the third person. When I pointed out that I was the individual, you never responded. Your choice. Bye-bye.

How do you call a girl from Iowa?

SOOO-EEEEE!

[Cap Mandrake]

What is the date after which anyone getting on a cruise deserves not to be rescued? After the publicity about the Princess Cruise ship berthed off Japan, how could ANYONE be so stupid? Any cruise line which boarded a ship after that date is going to have major liabilities to both governments that paid for the care and to passengers, who will claim they were unaware of the danger.

How much you want to bet Miami will be sued for not closing the beach during Spring Break and New Orleans for holding Mardi Gras. The plaintiffs will go for class action status, perhaps including patients who had only secondary exposure to travelers. Even insurance companies might bring claims because they will suffer massive losses. Reinsurance funds will get badly hammered.

It may take an act of Congress like after the 9-11 attack.

[durnedwolf]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

What is the date after which anyone getting on a cruise deserves not to be rescued? After the publicity about the Princess Cruise ship berthed off Japan, how could ANYONE be so stupid? Any cruise line which boarded a ship after that date is going to have major liabilities to both governments that paid for the care and to passengers, who will claim they were unaware of the danger.

How much you want to bet Miami will be sued for not closing the beach during Spring Break and New Orleans for holding Mardi Gras. The plaintiffs will go for class action status, perhaps including patients who had only secondary exposure to travelers. Even insurance companies might bring claims because they will suffer massive losses. Reinsurance funds will get badly hammered.

It may take an act of Congress like after the 9-11 attack.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: obvert




Holy conspiracy theory Batman!

This is next level stuff, and while I don't want to believe it I can't help but be influenced. Too much info out there that matches with this interpretation. Yikes!

I think it's clear the presenter is saying "accident" at a "lab", and is NOT saying "bio weapon" or "bio weapon lab". The publicly available information mitigates toward his conclusion, as I presume a bio weapon lab would not be advertising so openly for researchers or have researchers publishing papers.

Mitigates = decreases, makes less
Militates = increases, makes more likely

Thanks. Post edited. (Chose "supports" instead of "militates" for simplicity.)

[MakeeLearn]

Coronavirus and cruises: Roughly 10 ships are stuck at sea amid pandemic
Published 2 days ago
https://www.foxnews.com/travel/coronavi ... a-pandemic

"Amid the global coronavirus pandemic and related travel restrictions, several cruise ships carrying thousands of passengers are stuck at sea, a major association of cruise lines said Monday.

The group Cruise Lines International Association (CLIA,) which counts Carnival, Royal Caribbean and Princess Cruise Lines among its 38 member cruise companies, confirmed that about 3.6 percent of its 277-ship fleet – about 10 vessels – are still at sea, People reports. Another five vessels are reportedly docked, but passengers cannot yet disembark."

[obvert]

Interesting graphic. Looks like the stay at home orders are in fact important. The large map here (attached) shows that a lot of areas went about business as usual.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... e=Homepage

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: obvert




Holy conspiracy theory Batman!

This is next level stuff, and while I don't want to believe it I can't help but be influenced. Too much info out there that matches with this interpretation. Yikes!

I think it's clear the presenter is saying "accident" at a "lab", and is NOT saying "bio weapon" or "bio weapon lab". The publicly available information mitigates toward his conclusion, as I presume a bio weapon lab would not be advertising so openly for researchers or have researchers publishing papers.

Yes, but this would make a lot of sense with how much the Chinese government is cleaning up the story and sweeping a lot under the rug.

I'm not clear which way you mean would make sense, but I think they would cover up either way. They were already covering up in December 2019, when as we know they were already forcing doctors to sign documents "admitting" guilt for spreading "false rumors".

[Canoerebel]

I'll simply say that I disagree with most of Loka's comments, some strongly. The main thing to note, for his own info, is that he wasn't even close in hazarding a guess as to the most offensive political posts. As I noted yesterday, I won't go any further with that because doing so would call out some good men who were letting fly, and some with good reason.

Loka, if you'd like to discuss further by PM, I'd be glad to.