OT: Corona virus

[Canoerebel]

Well, that was Sherman's notion in Georgia. And he was right.

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: Encircled

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

It isn't a far fetched notion that the youngsters might just start seeing this as nature's methodology for culling the overpopulated herd.

May not be long before we Boomers start being seen as expendible.

It is far fetched to put it mildly

Look, it must suck being old and not being able to do whatever you want anymore, but lets keep it sensible eh?

(I'm 47 btw, not a boomer, but also not a youngster!)

Apparently not as far fetched as you think:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Well, my kids refer to it as "The Boomer Remover".......so there is that

[durnedwolf]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

"Boomer" and "American exceptionalism" are terms new to me. I read a lot but hadn't come across those before, at least not enough to register on my radar. My best guess is that they are terms that proliferate on social media, which I don't use.
(The latter has since been explained in here and I can look up the former.)

Here you go - the start of the "Boomer" phrase that went viral. It's kinda funny to show you the term and how it went viral within a clip about global warming - lol. Still, it is what it is.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L3_tocfXUiI

[Canoerebel]

Thanks, Durned Wolf. I'd never heard that before. I've never heard it used in conversation here in Georgia.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: warspite1


warspite1

Sadly London is the same..... [&:] Some people still need to work and can't work from home. So what do they do? Cut down on the number of trains and tubes running. Okay.....

I think the last numbers were that tube traffic was down 95% now though. So if NHS workers need to get to work I think they'll be okay.

Construction is one industry that has been slow to close, and anecdotal evidence from my neighbourhood would also suggest this is a strong vector for continued spread of the virus. These guys don't wear protective gear for their job (which they should do), let alone for the virus. They're all sitting within a few feet having a smoke break, and they all have to get from the outskirts of London into the center on the tube.

I think it's slowing now, but not done yet.

Are you in London Warspite? If so where?

warspite1

Yep. The warspites are Londoners born and bred. Currently in the southeast of this fine city. What about you?

We’re in Leyton, NE London. We’re both transplants but have grown used to the place! Actually I’m one of the few people who thinks the London weather is pretty decent, being from Portland, OR. My wife doesn’t agree. She’s from Melbourne.

[Ian R]

The Australian graph is starting to look better.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: warspite1

ORIGINAL: obvert




I think the last numbers were that tube traffic was down 95% now though. So if NHS workers need to get to work I think they'll be okay.

Construction is one industry that has been slow to close, and anecdotal evidence from my neighbourhood would also suggest this is a strong vector for continued spread of the virus. These guys don't wear protective gear for their job (which they should do), let alone for the virus. They're all sitting within a few feet having a smoke break, and they all have to get from the outskirts of London into the center on the tube.

I think it's slowing now, but not done yet.

Are you in London Warspite? If so where?

warspite1

Yep. The warspites are Londoners born and bred. Currently in the southeast of this fine city. What about you?

We’re in Leyton, NE London. We’re both transplants but have grown used to the place! Actually I’m one of the few people who thinks the London weather is pretty decent, being from Portland, OR. My wife doesn’t agree. She’s from Melbourne.

I agree with you on the London weather. I spent a New Year's long weekend in London. It was sunny and warm.

[Encircled]

[/quote]

Apparently not as far fetched as you think:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Well, my kids refer to it as "The Boomer Remover".......so there is that

[/quote]

And that is a joke, the kind I found funny when I was in my twenties, but wouldn't find funny now.

This is a more general point not aimed at you (or anyone on here) but I think a lot of us have forgotten what it was like to be young and should cut them a lot more slack, especially at times like this.

[USSAmerica]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Thanks, Durned Wolf. I'd never heard that before. I've never heard it used in conversation here in Georgia.

It's referring to Baby Boomers, but of course, most who use the term don't realize most of the people they are referring to are younger than Boomers. [:D]

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

But travel is a different thing altogether. This article mentions also that about 1/3 of that number were Americans returning home from travelling in China. All you have to do is look at the number of normally scheduled fights around the world to see that this stuff will spread regardless of intent.

I didn't make myself clear. I'm not saying they intentionally manufactured the virus or even ordered infected people to leave. What they did was not warn the rest of the world in a timely fashion as was their negotiated obligation. That has to be either extreme negligence or intent. The obvious cover-up and laughable propaganda claims since makes me think it was the latter.

It's all about face. And since we are kind of thinking now this was a mistaken release from a virology lab, you can imagine the loss of face they would have admitting they've caused this pandemic.

So yes, there seems to have been extreme negligence compounded by intent to cover it up, but I don't think that this was all designed as some grand strategic initiative to F-up the rest of the world. There is culpability though, yes.

I think we are pretty much saying the same thing. There had to be a very high level discussion about completely shutting down Hubei province. In order to take such an extreme decision there had to be airtight evidence of the severity of the threat because such a move could not be covered up. It is inconceivable that nobody thought about foreign travel or properly notifying the WHO. These had to be willful decisions.

[Cap Mandrake]

Getting the Senior Discount of 5 cents off your coffee at MacDonalds seems not worth the risk of mortality from Covid.

[RFalvo69]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

What 11 Billion People Mean for Disease Outbreaks

The explosive growth of the human population—from 2.5 billion to 6 billion since the second half of the 20th century—may have already started changing how infectious diseases emerge

By Bahar Gholipour, LiveScience on November 26, 2013

https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... outbreaks/


" "We should expect to see a continuous acceleration of progresses, but this is not a given," Khan said. "I think people nowadays have a false sense of security, and I think part of this is that public health is working,” but that can only last so long if public health resources keep decreasing instead of strengthening, he said.

“We have eradicated and eliminated some diseases from our community, but the honest truth is most diseases don't get eliminated," Khan said. "Most diseases come home to stay.""

Don't forget deforestation. A lot of virii live and thrive in the jungle, far from civilization. But once deforestation reaches them only God knows what will happen.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Loka, you're peeved about perceived backhanded blasts painting you as a POS (untrue, to my way of thinking) while hammering me clearly and openly.

I'd prefer not to carry on with this in here, but I'm glad to "sit down" and air our grievances privately. It might be fruitful. Maybe not. If you prefer doing it publicly, could we just stand down for awhile and green button each other until things cool a bit?

I don't green button anybody. I see no reason to - I'm perfectly capable on my own of memory-holing somebody's post if it's egregious.

But on topic? Here's what I've got: "OK, buddy." [8|] If you're not comfortable being forthcoming in public about what's under your public implications/accusations, then we're done here and you should drop it. If you've got a good reason under what you've said about me in front of everybody else, then you should let everybody else know what that good reason is - or perhaps you should revisit your prior posts and retract your comments if you're not comfortable citing your factual basis for them (how one perceives a comment made by another is its own form of fact, but you won't tell me that either, it seems).

Show me I'm wrong and I'll issue a sincere mea culpa (and I don't mean that just in this situation), but it seems that you can't (or won't) do that publicly. I'll be waiting if/when you're ready to do so.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Well I haven't been buying the comments re Germany. And suddenly their critical cases seem to have exploded from a consistently tiny figure (I don't believe the UK critical figure either - or the recovered number come to that).

If the reasons given for such a low German death rate were to be believed, surely there is no reason - following even tighter lock down measures - that their deaths and criticals should suddenly start rising? Even for a country as efficient as Germany, those numbers (compared to all those around them) just didn't stack up. Or maybe this is just a blip. I watch this with interest. For the avoidance of doubt I don't think there is anything sinister here - I just think there may have been a difference in procedure (how deaths are checked for Corona) and reporting.

It's been posted numerous times on this thread and there is abundant info on Germany available with a quick search.

1. Case age average up until about 3-4 days ago was 46 years old. Very low
2. This was caused mainly by skiing crowd picking it up and coming back, then partying at Carnival.
3. Older people told early on to isolate, no visits to care homes, etc.
4. Extensive testing and case tracking early.
5. Extensive testing finds more mild or asymptomatic cases bring the mortality rates down.

There are a lot of reports that now it's finding a way into care homes and other vectors to the more vulneable, so as seen elsewhere, this would bring up critical cases and mortality.

In the UK London is the centre of this so far and only 11% of Londoners are over 70, IIRC. There are obviously other risk factors though, and low testing means mortality rates will at least seem higher until we know more about who has or has had this.

I read a rather interesting article the other day on why/how Germany has done so many tests. Here it is.

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/25/82059548 ... -countries

Germany's death rate is more comparable to the US death rate so far than it is to Italy's. On day 20, they are at 13.3 deaths per million and the US was at 11.8 deaths per million on day 20. On day 18, they were at 9.3 and we were at 7.5 deaths per million.

[obvert]

Looking at testing I think two numbers are important to see what is really going on in a place. The tests/million shows if a place his actually testing enough to see a glimpse of it's population infection rate.

The other important number is the infection rate per thousand tests. I sorted for this and coloured with a higher rate more reddish, lower toward yellow.

We know there are not enough tests, but if the testing is over 2k/million I used it.

To me this seems to show which places we know are really struggling, and others which are at different stages but are at least getting a handle on how much of this is moving through the population, like Germany, Canada, the US and South Korea, due to the number of tests. Some places I've left since the there hasn't been enough testing to know, but I suspect in most of those cases, if they're getting a high rate of positives/thousand, they probably have a lot of positives that aren't showing up on the records yet.

Japan is worrisome since we know they've been intentionally keeping things open, not testing, and dealing with this all in a very different way, but especially Tokyo numbers are going up now.

[alanschu]

I don't have a link handy, but I believe France's spike in numbers is because they started counting those that passed away in places like nursing homes and whatnot.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Well I haven't been buying the comments re Germany. And suddenly their critical cases seem to have exploded from a consistently tiny figure (I don't believe the UK critical figure either - or the recovered number come to that).

If the reasons given for such a low German death rate were to be believed, surely there is no reason - following even tighter lock down measures - that their deaths and criticals should suddenly start rising? Even for a country as efficient as Germany, those numbers (compared to all those around them) just didn't stack up. Or maybe this is just a blip. I watch this with interest. For the avoidance of doubt I don't think there is anything sinister here - I just think there may have been a difference in procedure (how deaths are checked for Corona) and reporting.

It's been posted numerous times on this thread and there is abundant info on Germany available with a quick search.

1. Case age average up until about 3-4 days ago was 46 years old. Very low
2. This was caused mainly by skiing crowd picking it up and coming back, then partying at Carnival.
3. Older people told early on to isolate, no visits to care homes, etc.
4. Extensive testing and case tracking early.
5. Extensive testing finds more mild or asymptomatic cases bring the mortality rates down.

There are a lot of reports that now it's finding a way into care homes and other vectors to the more vulneable, so as seen elsewhere, this would bring up critical cases and mortality.

In the UK London is the centre of this so far and only 11% of Londoners are over 70, IIRC. There are obviously other risk factors though, and low testing means mortality rates will at least seem higher until we know more about who has or has had this.

I read a rather interesting article the other day on why/how Germany has done so many tests. Here it is.

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/25/82059548 ... -countries

Germany's death rate is more comparable to the US death rate so far than it is to Italy's. On day 20, they are at 13.3 deaths per million and the US was at 11.8 deaths per million on day 20. On day 18, they were at 9.3 and we were at 7.5 deaths per million.

They're talking about ding 200k test/day there soon. In the article the expert says they will soon have more cases than tests can detect. If so that is a LOT of cases with 1.4 million tests a week! [X(]

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: alanschu

I don't have a link handy, but I believe France's spike in numbers is because they started counting those that passed away in places like nursing homes and whatnot.

It is.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn


It's one of the reasons it's going to hit the US hard. I do believe.
Look at Louisiana and it's numbers.

I also think that we're still really early in the curve, and that the numbers could easily end up being worse than we think they might be at this moment. Also think that some states will be hit disproportionately harder than others. Louisiana is a good example.

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn



Iam having problems finding US deaths by age, preexisting conditions. Anyone have that?

Here you go, for Louisiana: http://ldh.la.gov/Coronavirus/ (down at the bottom click on "By Age", etc.)

Got it from the link Chickenboy set us up with the other day: https://covidtracking.com/data/#state-LA

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Herd immunity.

Much as I don't like it I suspect that may be the correct answer. We won't go quietly, but we will go there. Funny thing about science, I heard it works whether you believe in it or not.

We'll get there - that's what we're trying to do. But because of the acute nature of this disease, and how much more rapidly it spreads than the common cold or the flu does, we're trying to slow down when we reach herd immunity. Flattening the curve.