OT: Corona virus

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Well, that was Sherman's notion in Georgia. And he was right.

Good example.

[Nomad]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

It's referring to Baby Boomers, but of course, most who use the term don't realize most of the people they are referring to are younger than Boomers.

Well, when I was born Eisenhower was President so that makes me kind of old

When I was born Truman was president.

[Sammy5IsAlive]

Latest region specific numbers from the FT. I still don't know how to embed

https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/im ... width=1260

NY still looking rough, MI and NJ tracking the 'European curve'. Washington State still looking better. I still don't know if all the unlabelled grey lines equate to other US states - if that is the case it still looks quite encouraging for the US as they are all still trending below the European 'hotspots'.

Today's y-axis is average number of daily deaths over the seven previous days.

Re. NY it is worth pointing out (not for the first time as others have mentioned it) that NY state's population is just under 20m, compared to London (9M); Lombardy (10M) and Madrid (6.5M). So just as we are seeing internationally in the comparisions between the US and elsewhere once the outbreak is fully established the trend will be steeper due to population differences between US states and European cities/urban regions..

[MakeeLearn]

Coronavirus has seized control of New York. Here's why the city may never be the same again
Updated 48 minutes ago

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-04/ ... 9/12114976

"At the time of writing, more than 51,810 people had tested positive for COVID-19 in New York City.

More than 1,375 had died, which accounts for nearly a quarter of the 6,055 total deaths in the United States.

Experts say it could be another three weeks until we see the peak toll. Journalists who committed to calling it the "coronavirus epicentre of the US" are now testing out "epicentre of the world".

A month after its first coronavirus casualty, New York is seeing clearly what it missed before — and watching the virus seize control over a place once defined by freedom."

"Others assessed the situation and decided it was indeed time to leave the city, taking the threat of the virus to other parts of the country or the world, without promising to return."

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive
I still don't know how to embed

Use "Post Reply" instead of "Fast Reply"????

[MakeeLearn]

I guess I will be getting some "Share Croppers" on my bottom land.[:)]
I know most of the medicinal/food plants. Iam already lean and disciplined.
This may be what my Grandmother prepared me for.[:(]

[Sammy5IsAlive]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive
I still don't know how to embed

Use "Post Reply" instead of "Fast Reply"????

That's what I normally do - that or quote a message like this. Do you have to download the image and then upload it back up?

[MakeeLearn]

...
Click on "post reply"
Click here to upload
Browse- find your pic on your computer
upload

[MakeeLearn]

double post

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive
I still don't know how to embed

Use "Post Reply" instead of "Fast Reply"????

That's what I normally do - that or quote a message like this. Do you have to download the image and then upload it back up?

Yes the pic needs to be on your computer already. Then upload it.

[RangerJoe]

From a post on Facebook:

A MESSAGE FROM DR. MARGARET FUNK (INFECTIOUS DISEASE EPIDEMIOLOGIST)

"Hey everybody, as an infectious disease epidemiologist, at this point I feel morally obligated to provide some information on what we are seeing from a transmission dynamic perspective and how they apply to the social distancing measures.

Like any good scientist I have noticed two things that are either not articulated or not present in the "literature" of social media. Specifically, I want to make two aspects of these measures very clear and unambiguous.

First, we are in the very infancy of this epidemic's trajectory. That means even with these measures we will see cases and deaths continue to rise globally, nationally, and in our own communities in the coming weeks.

Our hospitals will be overwhelmed, and people will die that didn't have to.

This may lead some people to think that the social distancing
measures are not working. They are.

They may feel futile. They aren't.

You will feel discouraged. You should.

This is normal in chaos. But, this is also normal epidemic trajectory. Stay calm.

This enemy that we are facing is very good at what it does; we are not failing. We need everyone to hold the line as the epidemic inevitably gets worse.

This is not my opinion; this is the unforgiving math of epidemics for which I and my colleagues have dedicated our lives to understanding with great nuance, and this disease is no exception.

We know what will happen; I want to help the community brace for this impact.

Stay strong and with solidarity knowing with absolute certainty that what you are doing is saving lives, even as people begin getting sick and dying.

You may feel like giving in. Don't.

Second, although social distancing measures have been (at least temporarily) well-received, there is an obvious-but-overlooked phenomenon when considering groups (i.e. families) in transmission dynamics.

While social distancing decreases contact with members of society, it of course increases your contacts with group (i.e. family) members. This small and obvious fact has surprisingly profound implications on disease transmission dynamics.

Study after study demonstrates that even if there is only a little bit of connection between groups (i.e. social dinners, play-dates/playgrounds, etc.), the epidemic trajectory isn't much different than if there was no measure in place. The same underlying fundamentals of disease transmission apply, and the result is that the community is left with all of the social and economic disruption but very little public health benefit.
You should perceive your entire family to function as a single individual unit; if one person puts themselves at risk, everyone in the unit is at risk.

Seemingly small social chains get large and complex with alarming speed.

If your son visits his girlfriend, and you later sneak over for coffee with a neighbor, your neighbor is now connected to the infected office worker that your son's girlfriend's mother shook hands with.

This sounds silly, it's not.

This is not a joke or a hypothetical.

We as epidemiologists see it borne out in the data time and time again and no one listens.

Conversely, any break in that chain breaks disease transmission along that chain.

In contrast to hand-washing and other personal measures, social distancing measures are not about individuals, they are about societies working in unison.

These measures also take a long time to see the results.
It is hard (even for me) to conceptualize how 'one quick little get together' can undermine the entire framework of a public health intervention, but it does. I promise you it does. I promise. I promise. I promise.

You can't cheat it. People are already itching to cheat on the social distancing precautions just a "little"- a play-date, a haircut, or picking up a needless item at the store, etc.

From a transmission dynamics standpoint, this very quickly recreates a highly connected social network that undermines all of the work the community has done so far.

Until we get a viable vaccine this unprecedented outbreak will not be overcome in grand, sweeping gesture, rather only by the collection of individual choices our community makes in the coming months.

This virus is unforgiving to unwise choices.

My goal in writing this is to prevent communities from getting ‘sucker-punched' by what the epidemiological community knows will happen in the coming weeks.

It will be easy to be drawn to the idea that what we are doing isn't working and become paralyzed by fear, or to 'cheat' a little bit in the coming weeks.

By knowing what to expect, and knowing the importance of maintaining these measures, my hope is to encourage continued community spirit, strategizing, and action to persevere in this time of uncertainty."

#covid19 #stayhome #socialdistancing #flattenthecurve #quarantine #solidarity #stopthespread

[Cap Mandrake]

Here...scale is logarithmic

[RangerJoe]

A question that I have which no one here may have the answer to. How many of the deceased received improper treatment such as steroids before the medical people knew that those are contraindicated? The reason that I have this question is from one of the links that I posted with the person stating that the doctors were unsure of treating him with steroids. Once they knew that he had CoViD-19, they knew not to give him the steroids but gave him something else which worked.

[MakeeLearn]

Anti-inflammatory Drugs May Exacerbate Coronavirus Infection
Mar 16, 2020

https://www.technologynetworks.com/drug ... mol-332109

"Over-the-counter anti-inflammatory drugs, such as ibuprofen, should be avoided if you have coronavirus symptoms because they could worsen the condition, warns French authorities.

The British Pharmacological Society has responded to concerns that the use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), could exacerbate symptoms of the novel coronavirus infection, COVID-19.** [Updated, March 18, 2020]

The World Health Organization on March 18, 2020 released a statement via Twitter, that it "is aware of concerns on the use of ibuprofen for the treatment of fever for people with COVID-19."
"

[MakeeLearn]

Doctors Try Steroids to Treat Coronavirus Patients, Against WHO Counsel
Treatment gets results for serious cases in China and Japan, but use of the drugs is discouraged

March 22, 2020

https://www.wsj.com/articles/doctors-tr ... 1584878400

"TOKYO—Some doctors in China and Japan are using steroid drugs to treat coronavirus patients with difficult cases of pneumonia, generating a debate because the World Health Organization says they shouldn’t do so except in clinical trials."

Pay wall

[MakeeLearn]

He Was A “Perfectly Healthy” 44-Year-Old Father Of Six. He Died From The Coronavirus.

Adolph “T.J.” Mendez was still playing basketball with friends earlier this month. He died from complications of COVID-19 on Thursday.
March 30, 2020,

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/em ... -tj-mendez

"After beginning to feel ill earlier this month, Mendez started treating what he thought was a cold with over-the-counter medication, according to Johnson. When he didn’t get better, he visited his doctor, who gave him steroids in hopes of stopping what the doctor thought was a common virus."

[MakeeLearn]

They seem to have found out about steroids early on.

[MakeeLearn]

On the other hand...


Bruce Township man says experimental drug cured him of COVID-19
Mar 31, 2020

https://www.macombdaily.com/news/corona ... 866a3.html


"He mentioned two others drugs – one FDA approved and one that may be approved – may work on COVID-19 in limited instances. Steroids can help during certain stages of the disease, he added."

[RFalvo69]

Lawsuit swell as store owners in the US demand to open.

Their object to the strict measures now in place declaring them "anti constitutional".

Formally they are right. In the US the liberty of travel is a constitutionally protected right. Even inside states, any restriction of travel is a constitutional violation of the "Privileges or Immunities Clause" included in the Amendment XIV of the US Constitution. So, any restriction to free movement in the US is actually against the law.

However the government could argue that:

A) This kind of emergency is of a nature that the drafters of the Constitution couldn't predict. There was no knowledge, at the time, of the nature of infectious diseases (and still quarantining of ships was common and accepted).

B) Given the gravity of the situation, the measures will remain in place in the interest of public safety - until they can be debated in a more structured situation. Something like this never happened, so there has never been a case in point.

This problem can be easily summed up: your right to keep your shop open so to bring food on the table vs. putting you and others at risk of getting a very serious disease. It will be an interesting legal battle.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: RFalvo69

Lawsuit swell as store owners in the US demand to open.

Their object to the strict measures now in place declaring them "anti constitutional".

Formally they are right. In the US the liberty of travel is a constitutionally protected right. Even inside states, any restriction of travel is a constitutional violation of the "Privileges or Immunities Clause" included in the Amendment XIV of the US Constitution. So, any restriction to free movement in the US is actually against the law.

However the government could argue that:

A) This kind of emergency is of a nature that the drafters of the Constitution couldn't predict. There was no knowledge, at the time, of the nature of infectious diseases (and still quarantining of ships was common and accepted).

B) Given the gravity of the situation, the measures will remain in place in the interest of public safety - until they can be debated in a more structured situation. Something like this never happened, so there has never been a case in point.

This problem can be easily summed up: your right to keep your shop open so to bring food on the table vs. putting you and others at risk of getting a very serious disease. It will be an interesting legal battle.

It is also a violation of the interstate commerce clause since so many goods come from other states.

If the defence is that it is an unforeseen pandemic, pandemics have occurred before so that is no defense.