OT: Corona virus

[alanschu]

I personally don't know anyone that has been tested (typically Alberta residents). Only recommended self-isolation.

I do know someone that lost a friend yesterday though (they were in their 20s too) which is certainly sombre when it's closer to home.

[geofflambert]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: geofflambert

Has anybody here been tested? Does anyone here personally know anyone who's been tested? I don't know, I might be surprised, but in my city there's no place I could go to get tested if I wanted to. I believe there's one place in St. Louis County that is doing testing now, a drive up facility. This metro area is 2.5m people. I don't accept that we are testing enough yet or that it will be anytime soon when we actually have some useful data to crunch.

Drive-up stations are not an automatic test. They go through a series of questions to see if you qualify for needing the test.

Although the US Government has said tests are available to all who should have them, there are lots of reports that say otherwise. One of the places that should be tested and mostly has not been is Seniors Care Homes. Not only are the seniors very vulnerable, but the staff who are not medical personnel but must feed, clean, dress and change the diapers of seniors should be tested. But most seem to be saying the National/State guidelines for testing do not include these facilities.

I doubt we are doing any better in Canada. Our test numbers look good because we started early, but this thing is just beginning to hit nationwide and available test kits are dwindling.

There is a developing trade war over medical supplies with manufacturing nations being forbidden to fill orders from other countries. Retaliation is likely. Like the virus, if the world could get a good idea of where supplies of various medical items are made, how much are produced daily and where the needs are, we could work out some reasonable supply chain to each country and share surpluses (like the ventilators) when needs taper off.

Exactly. We now know that there are people who are symptom free that have no idea that they were exposed, have the virus and are spreading it, that would drive into one of those stations and drive right out without being tested. Why? Because we don't have enough tests. If we did we would test every single person who would let us test them.

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Obvert, I mistrust the press because of its overt and admitted bias over many years, including issues that are particularly important to me but admittedly not to those aligned with viewpoints of the press. My mistrust of the press is warranted and certainly doesn't pose any threat to any person.

Regarding the governor, as I said before, I heard him specifically talk about asymptomatic people spreading the virus as far back as two or three weeks ago. His comment a few days back was specifically in context of the further more recent development that asymptomatic suffers may never develop symptoms. This was very clear to those who listen to the full stream of things instead of popping in midstream unaware of prior statements that give context and accuracy. (Or do you really think that a governor of one of the mot populous states is that clueless?)

It's been said over and over in here that Georgia specifically left it to local jurisdictions to impose regulations and that they did so early and widespread. You know, for instance, that Georgia schools closed before England's.

Some of the Georgia outbreaks came very early, before those in most other places. Albany, in the SW corner, had two funerals that resulted in big outbreaks starting weeks ago. And Athens, Clarke County, in NE Georgia was one of the earliest and most stringent in imposing countermeasures, yet now has a fairly stout outbreak.

In an interview on local radio Wednesday, I explained why Georgia has been handling this very well. Not perfectly, but very well. I'm glad to be here.

I hope my sentiments don't amount to "Georgia exceptionalism." I think many/most other states are handling things very well. Most (all?) states are using their best judgment to, in good faith, respond to a novel situation.

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

While it is true the governor said that, it was taken out of context and misrepresented by the press (naturally).

Previously, the governor had said (on at least two occasions I listened to) that the virus could spread from asymptomatic sick.

Wednesday, his statement was with respect to asymptomatic people who will never show symptoms. IE, some Covid sufferers will never show symptoms and never get sick. That's a pretty new finding and the governor was making that point but the press got all excited because they live on gotcha moments - but they were the ones who were got, though most listeners won't ever know it.

The statewide edict almost perfectly matches most of the county and municipal ordinances that were already in effect. I'm not aware of any major differences, though there may be some here and there.

I've looked at all articles I can find that relate to this story. I haven't seen one yet that takes anything out of context. Most give a good paragraph of his speech verbatim.

This is one that has a short piece noting that this evidence was out there for some time, and most places around the world and in the states were acting on it. (my bold)

In Georgia, where at least 154 people have died of COVID-19, Republican Governor Brian Kemp on Wednesday told residents to prepare for a shelter-in-place order beginning on Friday. Governor Kemp’s announcement came weeks after medical professionals warned coronavirus infections would explode across Georgia without strict social distancing measures.

Gov. Brian Kemp: “What we’ve been telling people, from directives from the CDC, for weeks now, that if you start feeling bad, stay home. Those individuals could have been infecting people before they ever felt bad. But we didn’t know that until the last 24 hours. And as Dr. Toomey told me, she goes, 'This is a game changer.'”
In fact, a report in The New England Journal of Medicine published in late January warned asymptomatic people can spread the coronavirus, and the finding has informed public policy worldwide for weeks.

The mistrust of the press has dire consequences right now, as we've seen with students ignoring warnings and going on spring break, people going about business as usual in some areas with direct local or state directives to stay at home, and in the brash and more subtle ways that people ignore protection and distancing.

Georgia happens to have some very dense concentrations of this virus around right now and it seems this statewide order is coming a bit late. They may not have known asymptomatic cases could transmit the disease, but as government leaders who can influence life or death for millions of people, they should have. I hope that people have been paying attention to the media, the warnings, and doing this themselves. The travel map on the left below does show that some were not over the past week (darker indicating more movement).

Honest question: does Georgia's governor have a public health background?

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Geoff, I think your analysis is factually untrue. Lack of testing was the case weeks ago, but testing in the USA has skyrocketed. We have lots of reliable numbers now, form all over the place. JohnDillworth in NYC has numbers and has been offering his insights. As for people dying without anybody knowing that they died of Covid-19, I doubt that. That number would be very low. From the earliest days, testing has been done and everybody was on the lookout for the symptoms. Active cases certainly weren't reported but I think the mortality numbers are about as accurate as any tally could be.

ORIGINAL: geofflambert

We keep bandying about US numbers when we don't really have the numbers. Without the proper level of testing, and the US, all 50 states, are way behind much of the developed world, we don't know how many cases there are, because we haven't been testing because we can't get the tests. People are dying who may be dying or have died from SARS-Cov-2 virus that we don't know did and in many or most cases will never know because they were't tested and won't be after the fact. Many of those have already been cremated. It appears to me the most relevant countries to watch because their recovered numbers are a significant percent of their total cases, and they were testing heavily include Germany, South Korea, Austria, Taiwan and Canada. China's numbers cannot be trusted at all because their bureaucracy operates by lying at every level because they fear getting canned if they tell the truth.

Taiwan has been amazing in how quickly and successfully they clamped down on this. South Korea got hit hard but they got on top of it, and they're the only country that has a graph like this:

Really?

Care to expand on the data validation process that allowed you to make that assertion? From what sources?

I am somewhat sceptical as doing that correctly is a monumental challenge, and absolutely not something that's likely to be accurate this early on.

Fact of the matter is that the official numbers anywhere are akin to be an underestimate.

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: geofflambert

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: geofflambert

Has anybody here been tested? Does anyone here personally know anyone who's been tested? I don't know, I might be surprised, but in my city there's no place I could go to get tested if I wanted to. I believe there's one place in St. Louis County that is doing testing now, a drive up facility. This metro area is 2.5m people. I don't accept that we are testing enough yet or that it will be anytime soon when we actually have some useful data to crunch.

Drive-up stations are not an automatic test. They go through a series of questions to see if you qualify for needing the test.

Although the US Government has said tests are available to all who should have them, there are lots of reports that say otherwise. One of the places that should be tested and mostly has not been is Seniors Care Homes. Not only are the seniors very vulnerable, but the staff who are not medical personnel but must feed, clean, dress and change the diapers of seniors should be tested. But most seem to be saying the National/State guidelines for testing do not include these facilities.

I doubt we are doing any better in Canada. Our test numbers look good because we started early, but this thing is just beginning to hit nationwide and available test kits are dwindling.

There is a developing trade war over medical supplies with manufacturing nations being forbidden to fill orders from other countries. Retaliation is likely. Like the virus, if the world could get a good idea of where supplies of various medical items are made, how much are produced daily and where the needs are, we could work out some reasonable supply chain to each country and share surpluses (like the ventilators) when needs taper off.

Exactly. We now know that there are people who are symptom free that have no idea that they were exposed, have the virus and are spreading it, that would drive into one of those stations and drive right out without being tested. Why? Because we don't have enough tests. If we did we would test every single person who would let us test them.

That would run contrary to CR's world view, and thus he'll just deny that it's the case.

[Canoerebel]

Italy's daily mortality number is the lowest since 3/25/20. New cases pretty much the same (up a bit from yesterday but in line with the past two weeks. Assuming the tallying is accurate that's good news.

Spain new cases and mortality remain consistent with flattening.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

That would run contrary to CR's world view, and thus he'll just deny that it's the case.

I disagree. CR has never said that everyone can be tested, he just said that large scale testing is starting to happen.
That is true at the front end, but it seems like getting the test results is running well behind. That might change soon too, but rumours of a shortage of the Chinese-made reagents to complete the testing are troubling.

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

That would run contrary to CR's world view, and thus he'll just deny that it's the case.

I disagree. CR has never said that everyone can be tested, he just said that large scale testing is starting to happen.
That is true at the front end, but it seems like getting the test results is running well behind. That might change soon too, but rumours of a shortage of the Chinese-made reagents to complete the testing are troubling.

Sorry I was referring to the specific aspect of not having enough tests, should have clarified.

[Canoerebel]

Well, I hadn't seen that post, but thank you BBfanboy for giving the right context.

Cap Mandrake might be in the best position to provide info about testing. JohnDillworth too, given his position with New York City. There might be others that are plugged in as well.

To make clear, I don't know what actual testing numbers are, only that they are much higher than they were at the start, when they were pretty much nil.

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Well, I hadn't seen that post, but thank you BBfanboy for giving the right context.

Cap Mandrake might be in the best position to provide info about testing. JohnDillworth too, given his position with New York City. There might be others that are plugged in as well.

To make clear, I don't know what actual testing numbers are, only that they are much higher than they were at the start, when they were pretty much nil.

In which case, what basis was your earlier (quoted below) comment made on?

Geoff, I think your analysis is factually untrue. Lack of testing was the case weeks ago, but testing in the USA has skyrocketed. We have lots of reliable numbers now, form all over the place. JohnDillworth in NYC has numbers and has been offering his insights. As for people dying without anybody knowing that they died of Covid-19, I doubt that. That number would be very low. From the earliest days, testing has been done and everybody was on the lookout for the symptoms. Active cases certainly weren't reported but I think the mortality numbers are about as accurate as any tally could be.

[geofflambert]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing




Really?

Care to expand on the data validation process that allowed you to make that assertion? From what sources?

I am somewhat sceptical as doing that correctly is a monumental challenge, and absolutely not something that's likely to be accurate this early on.

Fact of the matter is that the official numbers anywhere are akin to be an underestimate.

The numbers are from Johns Hopkins and they aren't perfect but they're doing their best. S. Korea is an open enough society, similar to ours in the US, and it is possible to determine some facts, and they've certainly been doing a better job than us and again, no other country has a graph like that showing that they've really flattened that curve to that extent. Their numbers are a whale of a lot better than ours.

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: geofflambert

ORIGINAL: mind_messing




Really?

Care to expand on the data validation process that allowed you to make that assertion? From what sources?

I am somewhat sceptical as doing that correctly is a monumental challenge, and absolutely not something that's likely to be accurate this early on.

Fact of the matter is that the official numbers anywhere are akin to be an underestimate.

The numbers are from Johns Hopkins and they aren't perfect but they're doing their best. S. Korea is an open enough society, similar to ours in the US, and it is possible to determine some facts, and they've certainly been doing a better job than us and again, no other country has a graph like that showing that they've really flattened that curve to that extent. Their numbers are a whale of a lot better than ours.

...which even so are being accepted at face value. As far as I have seen, there's been no serious assessment of the JH methodology.

Having a solid understanding of the inputs into it should be anyone's first step, in this.

Copy/pasting the numbers and then commenting on them does not an analyst make.

[geofflambert]

Is someone here an "analyst" professionale?

[geofflambert]

I presume S. Korea or whatever organization speaks for the country in this matter is the source of the numbers, both the number of confirmed cases and the dates they were confirmed on. What methodology need be applied that might show that their conf. cases graph is so strikingly different from every other country's that I checked for some reason other than the apparent?

[geofflambert]

I am aware that there's a lot of squishiness out there, especially here. The numbers of how many have died in MO and which county the cases apply to keeps changing, as an example. The JH numbers contain a lot of "unassigned" confirmed cases for States where they haven't determined what jurisdiction within the state to apply them to, and when stuff like that is happening are mistakes made such as counting the same case twice or two cases as one, does that ever happen? Yep.

[geofflambert]

The Chinese numbers are just impossibly bizarre, we can make no use of them other than to determine they can't possibly be true.

[Cap Mandrake]

Of course there aren't enough tests to simultaneously test 1/3rd of billion people. There aren't enough medical people to COLLECT 1/3rd of billion tests or enough laboratory techs to RUN 1/3rd of billion tests or enough medical people to give results and advice to 1/3rd of a billion people.

Suppose you test 1/3rd of a billion people on Saturday and you have a million lab couriers to take the tests to the lab and a million techs running 330 labs each and everyone shows up to work on time and works on nothing else so it's all done by 2 PM and now you need 10 million nurses and doctors to call all 330 million and everyone HAS a phone and ANSWERS their phone (even the illegal aliens of which there are 20 million) and when they answer you need translators for Hmong and Que-Che and Cantonese and Swahili etc.

Now you have 35 million positives and you have to counsel them and tell them to stay home which they have already been advised to do...WHEW! Now, on Sunday, you only have 300 million to retest because some of them will have converted during the night....and there you go again.

The only practical way to measure incidence in a prospective fashion in a large population with many asymptomatic cases is with a sizable careful random sample.

In the meantime we discover Mr. Undie-Messing is a preening peacock of a statist ***-hole who has posters of Chairman Mao in his room in Mom's basement.

[Nomad]

If the USA tested 1,000,000 people per day it would only take about 11 months to test everyone. [:(]

[Canoerebel]

Yes, that might be possible (no tests if the virus was out there weeks or months before anybody knew it was here). But if it arrived in the USA when we currently think it did - at Seattle and California and then Illinois, etc. - the medical community seemed able to recognize those early cases. I didn't get the impression that a statistically relevant number of mortalities were missed from that point forward. But if victims were missed, couldn't post-mortem tests be done on whatever biological samples remain? One way or another, we're going to have a pretty solid feel for mortality in the US, I believe.

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

As for people dying without anybody knowing that they died of Covid-19, I doubt that. That number would be very low. From the earliest days, testing has been done and everybody was on the lookout for the symptoms. Active cases certainly weren't reported but I think the mortality numbers are about as accurate as any tally could be.

What about in the days before we knew COVID-19 was here (which was certainly before tests for it were deployed here)? I am thinking about the theories currently being investigated about when exactly did the virus/disease show up to what places.

[MakeeLearn]

They told us today, if we test positive we will be quarantined for 2 weeks in what ever building we are in. That's not going over too well. As John Dillman has hinted there is a certain strategy that is going to have to be followed.

[Canoerebel]

Er, do you mean John Dillworth, or is there a John Dillman?